Is there an NFL team with a weaker WR group than the Bills?

[Bockeye]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

Phillys D doesnt fold.  They pummeled Mahomes.  Saquan is best RB in league.  Eagles do not need to score 30 points every game to win

I agree with all of this.  So I’d assume you were good with the D draft?  The fact we have a top 5 RB doesn’t hurt.  He’s no Barkley, but good enough?

[Pete]

Just now, Bockeye said:

I agree with all of this.  So I’d assume you were good with the D draft?  The fact we have a top 5 RB doesn’t hurt.  He’s no Barkley, but good enough?

I really like the D draft.  Beane took notes.  Eagles also have DaVonta Smith and AJ Brown.  I like the Palmer and Moore signings- two WRs that can line up outside, run crisp routes, and separate.  Bills pass catchers not named Shakir struggled mightily in these roles. I believe Beane got sniped several times during the draft, and Wide Receivers were being drafted 1 to 2 rounds to their projection

[Ecmic82]

3 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

your PS is a lie...or at the very least overexaggerating because it fits your narrative.

 

Josh had two excellent three game stretches, from an efficiency standpoint.  One was the first three games, and the other was SF/LA/DET. They're super comparable in everything but quality of comp and attempts.

 

Cooper had a nice game against SF. Against SF and Detroit he didn't even get 50% of snaps and had 3 targets total for 12 yards.

 

I think the problem is more with your assumptions...That the reason they were more conservative was because of the WR talent.

 

Ordinarily, more conservative should correlate with reduced scoring.  But if ANY coach can become more risk adverse AND score more points, who wouldn't take that?  Less passing and more scoring is a good thing.  

 

I know there is concern about rising to the occasion in a shootout, but I think the ability is there.  Looks at the Rams and Lions games.

 

 

I’ll add that the entire league shifted focus last year, so quickly and so starkly, that analysis probably hasn’t had the opportunity to fully catch up to where the league may be headed.

 

If it was just Buffalo who “suffered” in the passing game, then there might be more to the Bills’ wide receiver hand-wringing (and I think there still is something to it). But, in a 17-game season, the league saw fewer 4,000 yard passers than in any season since 2010, back when teams still played 16 games.

 

That’s a HUGE turnaround for a league that’s been leaning hard into passing offense for most of this century. Sure, Buffalo could use an upgrade at wide receiver, but the numbers don’t point to a “them” problem, but rather a deeper league-wide shift in offensive philosophy. I think the goal should be to understand the reasons the entire league’s offensive philosophy shifted so drastically, and then do your best to exploit those reasons.

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, Bockeye said:

I consider you a super knowledgeable poster.

 

This is my worst fear, that people are going to start taking me seriously 😁

 

26 minutes ago, Bockeye said:

Maybe we’ve had a poll before on this, but i would value your opinion.  In ranking what’s holding us back from a SB, is it:

Coaching

Defense

Offense in playoff games 

 

OR has it been more specific:

special teams 

Wide Receivers

Defensive Line

Secondary 

(Some people pointed to the running game in the past - pre-cook?)

 

Good question. I'd put coaching first honestly, and I want to be more specific by saying that it's Andy Reid having McDermott's number that has been the biggest factor holding us back from a Super Bowl. KC's offense is regularly producing much better against us in the playoffs than they are throughout the regular season and in other playoff games. They've never punted more than twice against us. Our defensive talent and their offensive talent have changed but the outcome has always been the same. So I think McDermott takes the bulk of the responsibility.

 

After that I'd go defensive talent. We haven't had a legit #1 CB play a full game against them since Tre White played in our first AFCCG. Our DL talent has always been middling. We've had injuries throughout the defense, and I don't think that fully explains the utter collapses we're seeing on that side of the ball but certainly it has been a contributing factor.

 

And then lastly I'd put the offense which has regularly kept us in those games but has also failed to close the deal in the last two games when it had the ball last.

 

So all that being said I do understand wanting to focus on the defense this offseason, especially since both the FA class and draft class were stronger on defense. I'm not blind to the fact that the defense has been a massive disappointment in each of our playoff losses. I just feel like I trust Allen to get the job done more than I trust McDermott so I wish we'd give more of our resources to him.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The question ultimately becomes, “is what they did last year during the regular season sustainable?” The offense worked well until it didn’t. They didn’t have enough juice to get the score when they needed it. Their passing game regressed significantly but it was enough in the regular season. The OL was incredible as was Josh. They set a record for lowest negative plays ever. If that regresses to the mean, can they overcome it? We look at last year’s results and, if we are simple, can say it worked. If we look at all of the underlying reasons that it worked, is it reasonable to expect that again?

 

p.s. The numbers were WAY better after the Amari acquisition. 

 

4 hours ago, Mikey152 said:

your PS is a lie...or at the very least overexaggerating because it fits your narrative.

 

Josh had two excellent three game stretches, from an efficiency standpoint.  One was the first three games, and the other was SF/LA/DET. They're super comparable in everything but quality of comp and attempts.

 

Cooper had a nice game against SF. Against SF and Detroit he didn't even get 50% of snaps and had 3 targets total for 12 yards.

 

I think the problem is more with your assumptions...That the reason they were more conservative was because of the WR talent.

 

Ordinarily, more conservative should correlate with reduced scoring.  But if ANY coach can become more risk adverse AND score more points, who wouldn't take that?  Less passing and more scoring is a good thing.  

 

I know there is concern about rising to the occasion in a shootout, but I think the ability is there.  Looks at the Rams and Lions games.

 

 

I pride myself on being honest and using numbers to support my argument. With that being said, I guess that we should look at the offensive numbers with Cooper and without to confirm what I said was true. I threw out the last New England game completely so as to not alter anything. There were exactly 8 other regular season games with him playing and 8 without him playing.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper played, the Bills threw for 264.4 yards per game and scored 35.5 PPG.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper did not play, the Bills threw for 203.6 yards per game and scored 28.1 PPG.

For those of you that don’t think that 7.4 PPG difference is significant, the Bills finished 2nd in the NFL at 30.6 PPG. If you subtracted 7.4 PPG and were at 23.2 PPG they would have finished 12th.
 

Don’t let people try to put their feelings in the way of facts. There they are. Do with them what you will…

[Bockeye]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is my worst fear, that people are going to start taking me seriously 😁

 

 

Good question. I'd put coaching first honestly, and I want to be more specific by saying that it's Andy Reid having McDermott's number that has been the biggest factor holding us back from a Super Bowl. KC's offense is regularly producing much better against us in the playoffs than they are throughout the regular season and in other playoff games. They've never punted more than twice against us. Our defensive talent and their offensive talent have changed but the outcome has always been the same. So I think McDermott takes the bulk of the responsibility.

 

After that I'd go defensive talent. We haven't had a legit #1 CB play a full game against them since Tre White played in our first AFCCG. Our DL talent has always been middling. We've had injuries throughout the defense, and I don't think that fully explains the utter collapses we're seeing on that side of the ball but certainly it has been a contributing factor.

 

And then lastly I'd put the offense which has regularly kept us in those games but has also failed to close the deal in the last two games when it had the ball last.

 

So all that being said I do understand wanting to focus on the defense this offseason, especially since both the FA class and draft class were stronger on defense. I'm not blind to the fact that the defense has been a massive disappointment in each of our playoff losses. I just feel like I trust Allen to get the job done more than I trust McDermott so I wish we'd give more of our resources to him.

I think this is THE most concise summary of why we haven’t won a SB with Allen.  

 

Thanks

Edited 20 hours ago by Bockeye

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I pride myself on being honest and using numbers to support my argument. With that being said, I guess that we should look at the offensive numbers with Cooper and without to confirm what I said was true. I threw out the last New England game completely so as to not alter anything. There were exactly 8 other regular season games with him playing and 8 without him playing.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper played, the Bills threw for 264.4 yards per game and scored 35.5 PPG.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper did not play, the Bills threw for 203.6 yards per game and scored 28.1 PPG.

For those of you that don’t think that 7.4 PPG difference is significant, the Bills finished 2nd in the NFL at 30.6 PPG. If you subtracted 7.4 PPG and were at 23.2 PPG they would have finished 12th.
 

Don’t let people try to put their feelings in the way of facts. There they are. Do with them what you will…

 

 

Shame on you @Mikey152  for fake-claiming a lie from Kirby. 

 

Brandon Beane himself has literally bragged about scoring 7 more points per game with Cooper as a defense for trading the 3rd round pick.    

[Richard Noggin]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

I pride myself on being honest and using numbers to support my argument. With that being said, I guess that we should look at the offensive numbers with Cooper and without to confirm what I said was true. I threw out the last New England game completely so as to not alter anything. There were exactly 8 other regular season games with him playing and 8 without him playing.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper played, the Bills threw for 264.4 yards per game and scored 35.5 PPG.

 

In the 8 games that Cooper did not play, the Bills threw for 203.6 yards per game and scored 28.1 PPG.

For those of you that don’t think that 7.4 PPG difference is significant, the Bills finished 2nd in the NFL at 30.6 PPG. If you subtracted 7.4 PPG and were at 23.2 PPG they would have finished 12th.
 

Don’t let people try to put their feelings in the way of facts. There they are. Do with them what you will…

 

This is an awesome breakdown. Thank you!

 

But this is also where the science leaves off and the art of football analysis picks up: how much of this was the ghost of Amari Cooper's previous threat influencing or revealing defensive coverages? And/or how much of this was Amari Cooper's actual performance and production? 

 

I think if the Bills don't have an obvious matchup nightmare "#1" WR going into 2025, which they don't, that's fine...but on one hand it obviously limits an offense's ability to dictate/predict coverages, and on the other hand it allows Brady and Allen and the Gang to continue to evolve their Everyone Eats/Total Futbol offensive approach of spreading it out. Kind of like the NBA's triangle offense, which has since proliferated. Do the Bills have a Scotty Pippen and a Steve Kerr and a Horace Grant to run the Triangle with Josh Allen? Still looking for Pippen to step up, I think. 

[Dr. Who]

4 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This is an awesome breakdown. Thank you!

 

But this is also where the science leaves off and the art of football analysis picks up: how much of this was the ghost of Amari Cooper's previous threat influencing or revealing defensive coverages? And/or how much of this was Amari Cooper's actual performance and production? 

 

I think if the Bills don't have an obvious matchup nightmare "#1" WR going into 2025, which they don't, that's fine...but on one hand it obviously limits an offense's ability to dictate/predict coverages, and on the other hand it allows Brady and Allen and the Gang to continue to evolve their Everyone Eats/Total Futbol offensive approach of spreading it out. Kind of like the NBA's triangle offense, which has since proliferated. Do the Bills have a Scotty Pippen and a Steve Kerr and a Horace Grant to run the Triangle with Josh Allen? Still looking for Pippen to step up, I think. 

Interesting analogy. I think a lot depends on whether Palmer can block well enough downfield to mitigate the loss of Hollins, and also be a sufficient downfield presence to replicate whatever threat the ghost of Amari Cooper brought to the table. I'm not too confident about it, but it's not impossible.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This is an awesome breakdown. Thank you!

 

But this is also where the science leaves off and the art of football analysis picks up: how much of this was the ghost of Amari Cooper's previous threat influencing or revealing defensive coverages? And/or how much of this was Amari Cooper's actual performance and production? 

 

I think if the Bills don't have an obvious matchup nightmare "#1" WR going into 2025, which they don't, that's fine...but on one hand it obviously limits an offense's ability to dictate/predict coverages, and on the other hand it allows Brady and Allen and the Gang to continue to evolve their Everyone Eats/Total Futbol offensive approach of spreading it out. Kind of like the NBA's triangle offense, which has since proliferated. Do the Bills have a Scotty Pippen and a Steve Kerr and a Horace Grant to run the Triangle with Josh Allen? Still looking for Pippen to step up, I think. 

It’s a very fair question. There is no easy answer but it’s probably a little of both. The difference was so extreme that it’s not just coincidence. That may be a part of it but the offense was clearly much better with him. 
 

The triangle is a great analogy. The answer is TBD. I was obsessed with those 90’s Bulls teams. IMO, they don’t have a Pippen but have some of the other roles filled around Jordan. The OL is sort of Grant / Rodman doing the dirty work to help make it go. Kincaid to me is like Paxton / Kerr in that he can be a quality role player but rarely take over a game. Cook is a little like Kukoc in that he has a lot of ability but will never be the focus of the team. The receivers kind of remind me of Cartwright/Wennigton/Longley. They are the least talented of the starters but have a role. They’re never taking over a game but if they go out there and have 9 points and 6 rebounds they haven’t been a liability. Those Bulls teams would have won a lot of games because of Jordan. Would they have won all of those championships without Pippen? 
 

Shakir is the one sort of exception and he is somewhere between the BJ Armstrong and Paxson / Kerr. He’s the 3rd or 4th scoring option on a good team. Shakir is to the Bills what Jrue Holiday is to the Celtics offensively.

 

To answer your initial question, I’d say something like 65% Cooper’s presence, 20% coincidence and 15% his production. Obviously, that’s subjective but to try to quantify it, that’s what I have. The Bills faced the 3rd least 2 deep in the NFL last year. I haven’t seen the breakdown by game, but I will bet my life, that they saw way more 2 deep in the games that he played vs. didn’t. 

Edited 10 hours ago by Kirby Jackson

[C.Biscuit97]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

This is an awesome breakdown. Thank you!

 

But this is also where the science leaves off and the art of football analysis picks up: how much of this was the ghost of Amari Cooper's previous threat influencing or revealing defensive coverages? And/or how much of this was Amari Cooper's actual performance and production? 

 

I think if the Bills don't have an obvious matchup nightmare "#1" WR going into 2025, which they don't, that's fine...but on one hand it obviously limits an offense's ability to dictate/predict coverages, and on the other hand it allows Brady and Allen and the Gang to continue to evolve their Everyone Eats/Total Futbol offensive approach of spreading it out. Kind of like the NBA's triangle offense, which has since proliferated. Do the Bills have a Scotty Pippen and a Steve Kerr and a Horace Grant to run the Triangle with Josh Allen? Still looking for Pippen to step up, I think. 

Even if Cooper was washed (and he had 1,200 yards the year before with not great qbs), he’s still threat that DCs respect. Before him, we had no one that falls in the category. When you have Cooper, everyone shifts down a spot which makes them more effective. 
 

so the Hope is that Palmer is a younger Cooper with upside and Moore (who definitely have talent), and Coleman  can take a jump playing with Allen. Personally, Palmer is very meh to me and played with one of the best passing qbs in the league for a team desperate for a number 1 wr. I do really like the Moore pickup. 
 

I still don’t know how really scary this group is but they certainly have some nice pieces and are probably league average when last year they were one of the worst groups headed into camp. 

[nuklz2594]

steelers after trading pickens