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Next offseason extension game


appoo

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In the next offseason you’ll likely see the following players either be extended or let go or risk an unhappy employee by letting them play out their contract. So here’s the game 

 

Extend (give us a number)

let go (explain why)

Play it out (let them run down the contract some more. Explain why though)

 

Josh Allen - his cap hit in 25 is 60m, and he’s getting paid less than 40M, which at this point is criminally underpaid for the 2nd best player in football. 
 

James Cook - played like a top 5-10 back last year and will be extension eligible, and perhaps has more valuable in this offense than otherwise 

 

Spencer Brown - will actually be a free agent. Older for someone coming off his first contract (26) so he’s gonna want to get paid, and if he continues an upswing this season will get paid by someone 

 

Groot - got his rookie contract auto-extended as a first rounder. Hes still just 24 and you could argue his best football is ahead of him


Dawson Knox - his cap hit doubles from 7M to 14M. Nowadays teams love to use 12 when TEs can play inside and out and Dawson is better inline, but he also enables Kincaid to do what he does

 

Khalil Shakir - if he does what a lot of us think he’s gonna do, this dude is gonna have a real interesting off season. Because if they don’t extend him next summer they risk letting him hit the open market - and gain even more value - after the 25 season

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Bernard - Extend as hell never be cheaper.  Really stepped up and settled the defense with Milano out.  4 years 36.5 million to make him just inside the top 10.  

 

For the others I took stabs here but there are better cap folks on this site

Josh Allen - extend to make the cap hit better.  give him whatever he wants (4 years 230 mil if pressed) cause hes worth it

 

Cook - let it play out cause paying RBs is not a great idea (will admit he can be the exception for a few reasons)

 

Spencer Brown - Extend NOW for 3 years 48 million with 24ish guaranteed cause thats the market for RT (this a not top 10 contract)

 

Groot - Extend to lower the 5th year option number.  3 years 42 mil (tick above 5th year option).  Contract is about 20th and money wouldnt really kick in until von is off hte books

 

Knox - play out.  if you think hes got more in tank extend for 2 years 18 mil

 

Shakir - play out. they are starting to show an ability at finding late round receiver talent (Davis, Hodgins) 

 

I could see brown and groot not accepting these contracts and wanting to bet on themselves.  Would also say the team has shown us the off the field stuff matters a lot to them so its very difficult to do this without knowing how they are dealing with injuries or changes to their role

Edited by YattaOkasan
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42 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Bernard - Extend as hell never be cheaper.  Really stepped up and settled the defense with Milano out.  4 years 36.5 million to make him just inside the top 10.  

 

For the others I took stabs here but there are better cap folks on this site

Josh Allen - extend to make the cap hit better.  give him whatever he wants (4 years 230 mil if pressed) cause hes worth it

 

Cook - let it play out cause paying RBs is not a great idea (will admit he can be the exception for a few reasons)

 

Spencer Brown - Extend NOW for 3 years 48 million with 24ish guaranteed cause thats the market for RT (this a not top 10 contract)

 

Groot - Extend to lower the 5th year option number.  3 years 42 mil (tick above 5th year option).  Contract is about 20th and money wouldnt really kick in until von is off hte books

 

Knox - play out.  if you think hes got more in tank extend for 2 years 18 mil

 

Shakir - play out. they are starting to show an ability at finding late round receiver talent (Davis, Hodgins) 

 

I could see brown and groot not accepting these contracts and wanting to bet on themselves.  Would also say the team has shown us the off the field stuff matters a lot to them so its very difficult to do this without knowing how they are dealing with injuries or changes to their role

Agree with everyone except Knox (and I'm leaning maybe your way), but Shakir I think you can lock up at a decent clip, and while you can find talent in the draft, it's tough to have ready talent

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Not sure if this is an unpopular stance, but currently I view Shakir the same as Cook.  

 

Nice pieces to have while they're cheap and then draft their replacements. 

 

With Cook, we can stay on the draft a RB every two years routine and take one when Cook gets a contract elsewhere to pair with Davis who will be entering Year 3.

 

With Shakir.. next year we have Coleman, Shakir and Samuel under contract.  Maybe MVS and/or Claypool justifies another years contract and then draft another WR with our 1st or one of the RD2's and then another in the mid-rounds.   Get into the habit of constantly filling that pipeline.  Not sure I have an appetite to pay 15-20M for a good slot WR unless he blows up this year and next.. at which point, he may end up warranting more than that. 

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1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Bernard - Extend as hell never be cheaper.  Really stepped up and settled the defense with Milano out.  4 years 36.5 million to make him just inside the top 10.  

 

For the others I took stabs here but there are better cap folks on this site

Josh Allen - extend to make the cap hit better.  give him whatever he wants (4 years 230 mil if pressed) cause hes worth it

 

Cook - let it play out cause paying RBs is not a great idea (will admit he can be the exception for a few reasons)

 

Spencer Brown - Extend NOW for 3 years 48 million with 24ish guaranteed cause thats the market for RT (this a not top 10 contract)

 

Groot - Extend to lower the 5th year option number.  3 years 42 mil (tick above 5th year option).  Contract is about 20th and money wouldnt really kick in until von is off hte books

 

Knox - play out.  if you think hes got more in tank extend for 2 years 18 mil

 

Shakir - play out. they are starting to show an ability at finding late round receiver talent (Davis, Hodgins) 

 

I could see brown and groot not accepting these contracts and wanting to bet on themselves.  Would also say the team has shown us the off the field stuff matters a lot to them so its very difficult to do this without knowing how they are dealing with injuries or changes to their role

I agree with most of this.... the only augmentation I have is 

 

Groot - not overly impressed I could be wrong here maybe he lights it up but I think what he can get on the open market will be more expensive then he may be worth. I want him badly to be a stud, but I am just not seeing it. Very streaky. 

 

Cook - I agree in principle but I feel like he is going to be a serious weapon if he ever settles down catching the ball... but in the end... do I want to tie up that cash. Tough decisions here. 

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Allen - No brainer extension, if not next offseason then the one after.

 

Cook - Let go. Never give RBs 2nd contracts.

 

Brown - I know this will be unpopular but I would let him go. I think Brown is in line for a massive contract on the open market. We're in an environment where Jawaan Taylor got $20M AAV and Mike McGlinchey got $17.5M AAV. Personally I would not pay that much for a RT. I would accept the 3rd round comp pick and use the money on a high end WR instead.

 

Rousseau - Let it play out, take advantage of two years of cost controlled salary. I need to see him stay healthy for an entire season and get double digit sacks. If his best trait is always going to be run stopping I don't think that's worth a 2nd contract.

 

Knox - I would let him go but we seemingly got him to restructure his contract by setting it up in a way that makes it extremely difficult to cut him next offseason. Maybe some team throws us a 5th rounder to take him off our hands. Otherwise we are stuck with him until the 2026 offseason.

 

Shakir - This is an easy let it play out. We need to see how he does in a higher volume role this year before we even begin to have this discussion.

 

Edited by HappyDays
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I think we may have been underestimating the extent of Dawsons injury last year,

but this is certainly a make or break season. That stinks, because he’s one of the most likable guys on the most likable teams in a while.  I think with the 12 offense, he shines again. We shall see. 

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47 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Allen - No brainer extension, if not next offseason then the one after.

 

Cook - Let go. Never give RBs 2nd contracts.

 

Brown - I know this will be unpopular but I would let him go. I think Brown is in line for a massive contract on the open market. We're in an environment where Jawaan Taylor got $20M AAV and Mike McGlinchey got $17.5M AAV. Personally I would not pay that much for a RT. I would accept the 3rd round comp pick and use the money on a high end WR instead.

 

Rousseau - Let it play out, take advantage of two years of cost controlled salary. I need to see him stay healthy for an entire season and get double digit sacks. If his best trait is always going to be run stopping I don't think that's worth a 2nd contract.

 

Knox - I would let him go but we seemingly got him to restructure his contract by setting it up in a way that makes it extremely difficult to cut him next offseason. Maybe some team throws us a 5th rounder to take him off our hands. Otherwise we are stuck with him until the 2026 offseason.

 

Shakir - This is an easy let it play out. We need to see how he does in a higher volume role this year before we even begin to have this discussion.

 

 

I'm cool with Knox being here for the next few years.  I do think he's a good TE and expect him to show that this year.  Last year was a mess for him with his brother and then the injury that he played through out of necessity, followed by the surgery. 

 

Spencer Brown is the toughest decision, imo.   He was pretty good last year, but is going to get massively paid if he follows that up this year.  

 

At some point we'll pay our own guys, but it seems like we have so many good, not great, players.  Would love to have a guy where I just say straight up, gotta pay him.  Shakir, Cook, Brown, Rousseau, Benford etc., Would love to extend them on friendly contracts, but definitely don't want to overpay.  Bernard might deserve a legit payday, but then it's a convo about how much do you pay an undersized linebacker?  

 

 

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Allen's $60 million hit includes a $25 million roster bonus which is likely automatically set to prorate, dropping his '25 cap down to $43 million. Unless he's making a stink about being underpaid, he can easily wait another year.

 

Shakir could be in line for sure. But he can't be extended until after our last game this year, so a lot remains to be seen.

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2 hours ago, stevestojan said:

I think we may have been underestimating the extent of Dawsons injury last year,

but this is certainly a make or break season. That stinks, because he’s one of the most likable guys on the most likable teams in a while.  I think with the 12 offense, he shines again. We shall see. 

I still don't love that 14M cap hit. 

 

image.thumb.png.7a6acf2c6c3ef92d6036da4fe1004bdd.png

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

Allen's $60 million hit includes a $25 million roster bonus which is likely automatically set to prorate, dropping his '25 cap down to $43 million. Unless he's making a stink about being underpaid, he can easily wait another year.

 

Shakir could be in line for sure. But he can't be extended until after our last game this year, so a lot remains to be seen.

HE can, but he is wildly underpaid. 

 

Which is weird to say when someone is getting 40M a year. But I mean, Tua is gonna end up higher paid. So is Lawrence. He's on the same pay scale as Daniel Jones. 

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3 hours ago, appoo said:

I still don't love that 14M cap hit. 

 

image.thumb.png.7a6acf2c6c3ef92d6036da4fe1004bdd.png

 

 

I got as far as Travis Kelce, age 35, then I stopped and smiled.   😋

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In the next two years White(remainder of his dead cap), Miller, Dawkins, Epenesa, and Milano will be gone and their contracts mostly off the books. Bass may be gone too.

I would let Rousseau walk barring a big improvement this year. Good player but not great. Let someone else overpay. 

I would extend Brown paying him around 10th overall.

Cook is the hardest decision for me. He looks really talented.  But in the end you can't pay top QB and top RB money. I might tag him to get one more year at a high cost but without the long term commitment. 

I would try to get Knox to extend at a cheaper rate.

Bernard is so much better than I thought he would be. But he is still small and they can find a cheaper option in the draft.

And that leaves Shakir. Oh this is tough too. In a perfect world he continues to blossom and you extend at a reasonable rate. If he is a 80+ catch slot guy try to work out a deal that is reasonable for both sides. However WR money is getting out of hand. He's probably another guy that they will have to let walk.

 

Draft OT, Edge, Edge, WR, and LB with their first and second round picks the next two years.

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For me with Knox it all depends on th development of Kincaid as a blocker and how they use the two in packages under Brady.    Knox is an above average NFL TE with good hands who can also block.  That's a great package to have, he's an NFL starter.   But you also have Kincaid...  So the questions are:

 

1) Can Kincaid learn how to block inline along with his off the line play? 

 

2) how do they use the two of them... IE is Knox predominantly a blocker who sometimes goes out, or is he used how he was 2 and 3 years ago? If he's used as a blocker, you let him walk... You pay him an AAV of $9M because of his all around play, you can get a pure blocker for pennies comparatively.  Kincaid is the clear future from a pass catching perspective by volume, but if he's just a WR playing TE they need to platoon different TEs. 

 

 

So long and short, Knoxs re-signing value comes from usage and Kincaid's development.

 

There 100% is room for both a-la Gronk/Hernandez... But yo justify it you need the right scheme, production, and growth from Kincaid in blocking.

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On 6/25/2024 at 9:03 AM, SCBills said:

Not sure if this is an unpopular stance, but currently I view Shakir the same as Cook.  

 

Nice pieces to have while they're cheap and then draft their replacements. 

 

With Cook, we can stay on the draft a RB every two years routine and take one when Cook gets a contract elsewhere to pair with Davis who will be entering Year 3.

 

With Shakir.. next year we have Coleman, Shakir and Samuel under contract.  Maybe MVS and/or Claypool justifies another years contract and then draft another WR with our 1st or one of the RD2's and then another in the mid-rounds.   Get into the habit of constantly filling that pipeline.  Not sure I have an appetite to pay 15-20M for a good slot WR unless he blows up this year and next.. at which point, he may end up warranting more than that. 

This is the way. You pay QB, EDGE  big; core players top 10 which turns into top 50 by the end of the contract and RB & WR are rookie deals rinse/repeat contracts

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On 6/25/2024 at 10:03 AM, SCBills said:

Not sure if this is an unpopular stance, but currently I view Shakir the same as Cook.  

 

Nice pieces to have while they're cheap and then draft their replacements. 

 

May be - I think how this season shakes out will write the story on how we approach locking up or replacing those two.

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2 hours ago, MR8 said:

For me with Knox it all depends on th development of Kincaid as a blocker and how they use the two in packages under Brady.    Knox is an above average NFL TE with good hands who can also block.  That's a great package to have, he's an NFL starter.   But you also have Kincaid...  So the questions are:

 

1) Can Kincaid learn how to block inline along with his off the line play? 

 

2) how do they use the two of them... IE is Knox predominantly a blocker who sometimes goes out, or is he used how he was 2 and 3 years ago? If he's used as a blocker, you let him walk... You pay him an AAV of $9M because of his all around play, you can get a pure blocker for pennies comparatively.  Kincaid is the clear future from a pass catching perspective by volume, but if he's just a WR playing TE they need to platoon different TEs. 

 

 

So long and short, Knoxs re-signing value comes from usage and Kincaid's development.

 

There 100% is room for both a-la Gronk/Hernandez... But yo justify it you need the right scheme, production, and growth from Kincaid in blocking.

 

I agree.  The thing about Knox is intriguing for this season.  He is going to stay in and help block for sure.  With Spencer Brown improving,

Knox can rotate between helping Brown or Dawkins.  Defenses will need to worry about him staying in to block or going into a pass pattern.

 

My real hope is if he can really get good and chip blocking and then slipping out for a pass.  Knox also has a nose for the endzone.

If Kincaid takes a deeper route, Knox can follow him up with a shorter one.  Good things could happen with that.

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On 6/25/2024 at 4:49 AM, appoo said:

In the next offseason you’ll likely see the following players either be extended or let go or risk an unhappy employee by letting them play out their contract. So here’s the game 

 

Extend (give us a number)

let go (explain why)

Play it out (let them run down the contract some more. Explain why though)

 

Josh Allen - his cap hit in 25 is 60m, and he’s getting paid less than 40M, which at this point is criminally underpaid for the 2nd best player in football. 
 

James Cook - played like a top 5-10 back last year and will be extension eligible, and perhaps has more valuable in this offense than otherwise 

 

Spencer Brown - will actually be a free agent. Older for someone coming off his first contract (26) so he’s gonna want to get paid, and if he continues an upswing this season will get paid by someone 

 

Groot - got his rookie contract auto-extended as a first rounder. Hes still just 24 and you could argue his best football is ahead of him


Dawson Knox - his cap hit doubles from 7M to 14M. Nowadays teams love to use 12 when TEs can play inside and out and Dawson is better inline, but he also enables Kincaid to do what he does

 

Khalil Shakir - if he does what a lot of us think he’s gonna do, this dude is gonna have a real interesting off season. Because if they don’t extend him next summer they risk letting him hit the open market - and gain even more value - after the 25 season

I'd let every one of those guys walk, except for Allen and Shakir if his numbers are reasonable.

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Allen- try to extend at all costs

Cook- solid player but no second RB contracts

Brown- only if reasonable ($12-15M aav) and he likely won't be

Rousseau- ditto. He's just not the kind of DE you need to pay a lot

Knox- no

Shakir- think we will be able to get an affordable deal done. Unless he goes nuclear this season I don't think there's a huge market for him

 

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