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the perils of not moving up - a cautionary tale


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Just now, dave mcbride said:

Well, since you asked, in the 2019 postseason, he had 302 total yards in three playoff games and caught a bomb on KC's game winning drive (by beating Richard Sherman badly) that put the Chiefs in the red zone. He had 5 catches for 98 yards in the SB.

Great drop the season totals on us.   

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19 minutes ago, eball said:

Fans tend to be more "afraid" of giving up draft capital than good GMs.  I think Beane strikes the right balance between being aggressive to go get the guy you believe in early, but then letting the later rounds come to him based upon his scouts and board.

 


Beane draws the line at giving up next years first .., at least he says he does anyway… to me that’s threshold I’m not stepping over for a WR …. And I don’t care about how high in the second the Vikings pick might be .., 

 

So no Top 3 for me it appears 

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1 minute ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Davis was his best DRAFTED receiver, and he was average, all things considered.

 

Can't say he evaluated Diggs who was an established veteran. It's one thing to bring in an FA. It's another to draft a dude.

Well, we're gonna find out tonight, most likely.

1 minute ago, billsfan714 said:

Great drop the season totals on us.   

52 catches for 673 yards on an offense that also featured Tyreek Hill and Kelce, both of whom put up huge numbers. He was actually pretty good that year although he unsurprisingly missed 2+ games due to his hamstring. I'm not gonna say he wasn't a disappointment overall, but when healthy early on he was electrifying. Turns out had some personal issues too, obviously ...

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31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

I think you can see where I'm going with this. Beane's MO is to not risk missing on his guy (assuming the player is within a reasonable distance) and this is the reason why. I'm not saying he HAS to move up at all; just saying that there is a potentially steep price one pays by sitting still and "letting the draft come to you." This is assuming, of course, that the player you want is someone you truly believe in, but that should be a given in any trade-up.

 

Anyway, food for thought.

Excellent post. 

More recently, Cowboys stood still when Beane did a small trade-up and got a guy Jones coveted.

 

I am all for a trade-up to get the guy you really want and the cost of a low draft pick to move up a few slots is forgotten very quickly. Yet some fans don't forget and keep lamenting that "yea but Beane had to use assets to move up". It doesn't matter when you land a Kincaid type player. 

I am very much convinced we will see a trade-up tonight. 

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13 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

 

12 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He traded for Diggs and got multiple all-pro seasons out of him! Gabe Davis had excellent production for a fourth (just look at fourth round receivers from the last decade and compare).

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

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Just now, eball said:

 

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

Why do you figure that is, when there's been a need at the position for at least three seasons

 

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6 minutes ago, eball said:

 

 

Dave beat me to it, but the truth is that Beane has never drafted a receiver higher than the 4th round so how can anyone say he can't evaluate them!

 

That Shakir kid looks ok...

 

 

Thank you -- Shakir indeed looks terrific.

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22 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

How did he do with Mahomes, Rodgers and Goff, not exactly stiffs there.  My point, Watkins was way overrated, and was a terrible trade up and it was in what was considered a good WR class.

Youre right.  Watkins was overrated.

 

My point is that you have a true stud at QB and should take the gamble here.

 

Agree to disagree i guess.

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If we wont the Chiefs will, Mahomes and McDuffie come to mind. Doubt they pick at 32, they will jump ahead of us and take McConkey or whoever. Only way you get ahead of that is making the power move yourself.

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48 minutes ago, sleeby said:

Josh allen was the cream of the rich QB crop his year and no one knew.  He was the third QB selected and most here were unhappy that night as he wasn't josh Rosen who went fourth.  

 

Just never know but as buffalobill said, Beane has done well for us in the past.

I’m proud to say I was on Josh Allen train was thrilled and jumped up and down when he was selected !!! 

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4 minutes ago, Magox said:

It goes both ways, trading up for Sammy Watkins set back this franchise when we swung and missed on that pick.

Well yes, but in hindsight we didn’t have an established QB. We have a unicorn now and Allen needs another dynamic weapon. Kincaid was a great start, now let’s get him a WR with elite traits. 

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47 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

With this class of receivers you never know, there's a good chance he might just snag a gem out of this bunch? 😉 

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973
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If you got a guy like Aiyuk as a plan a or plan b - then you can sit back at 28. If you get to 28 and all the names are gone you make the trade for Aiyuk and the swap is more of a sure thing for the much higher price tag. If you dont have an Aiyuk or similar for a back up plan you do whatever it takes to move up if needed to get your guy. 

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43 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Except at receiver

 

he's absolutely atrocious at evaluating receiver.

 

 

Really?   Your opinion is based on what exactly?   That Beane didn't draft players that you thought he should have?  That he didn't trade for a veteran receiver that you like?   

 

In 6 drafts, Beane's hit 2 HRs with receivers, trading the Bills 2020 first rounder (#22) for WR Stefon Diggs and trading up to get TE Dalton Kincaid in 2023.   Beane also hit a solid single with WR Gabe Davis in the fourth round of 2020.  He also drafted another promising young WR,  Khalil Shakir, in the fifth round in 2022. 

 

Beane's  WRs

2018 - 6th round - Ray-Ray McCloud

2018 - 7th round - Austin Proehl

2020 - traded 1st round pick to acquire Stefon Diggs

2020 - 4th round - Gabe Davis

2020 - 6th round - Isaiah Hodges#

2021 - 6th round - Marquez Stevenson

2022 - 5th round - Khalil Shakir

2023 - 5th round - Justin Shorter - IR as a rookie

 

Beane's TEs

2019 - 3rd round - Dawson Knox

2019 - 7th round - Tommy Sweeney

2023 - 1st round - Dalton Kincaid

 

 

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36 minutes ago, ngbills said:

If you got a guy like Aiyuk as a plan a or plan b - then you can sit back at 28. If you get to 28 and all the names are gone you make the trade for Aiyuk and the swap is more of a sure thing for the much higher price tag. If you dont have an Aiyuk or similar for a back up plan you do whatever it takes to move up if needed to get your guy. 


If the 49ers are happy to wait around to see if the Bills don’t get anyone they like at 28 .. that’s very neighbourly of them … I guess if BTJ falls to 28 then speak to the Panthers for a top of the second … 

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1 hour ago, billsfan714 said:

How did Sammy Watkins work out? Or JP Losman.

 

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Me too. 

@dave mcbridethis is like trying to argue with a child that mcdonalds isnt the best food on the planet

 

15 yEaRs AgO sOmEtHiNg BaD hApPeN! tRaDe AlWaYs BhAd!

1 hour ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

 

Davis was his best DRAFTED receiver, and he was average, all things considered.

 

Can't say he evaluated Diggs who was an established veteran. It's one thing to bring in an FA. It's another to draft a dude.

so how do we know hes a bad talent evaluator at WR?

Davis was a 4th rd. not my fav player of all time, but i think most would agree he lived up to a 4th rd pick

Khalil Shakir in the 5th, that looks pretty good

Kincaid looks good, hes a TE, but a pass catcher

Justin Shorter, we dunno anything about, but thats a 5th rd flyer on a big body

 

from a small sample size looks pretty solid, no?

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