How to Pick a Top WR

[Bruffalo]

WR is arguably the 2nd most important position in Football.  If you're not moving up, I think double dipping becomes necessary. You might even want a 3rd later round guy for bottom of the roster competition. 

 

I get that there are other holes like DT, Safety, EDGE but we actually have serviceable players right now in those positions, which is just not the case at WR.   

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

It would be interesting to correlate the data with good or elite QB play.  Some of the guys going in the top half of the draft probably went into a bad QB situation.  No matter who the Bills select, they will be under a lot of scrutiny and will constantly be compared to Diggs.

[bigK14094]

A good discussion.  But, overall needs will limit early selections to one wr.   Either a safety or a D lineman will be early as well.  I would think another next year might be in order as Josh does need top receivers.  Davis was a mixed  bag, a pro for sure.  I guess I didn't understand how he wasn't on the same page a Josh so much in his 4th year.  Ccoaching?  Scheme change?  He wasn't the same guy in year 4.  His drop rate was also surprisingly high at 10% of targets about. (I know somebody on here will know the exact number.)

[SoTier]

15 hours ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

Someone from the top group has to fall because I don't think we'll have 7 receivers go in the 1st round like a lot of mocks are showing. Teams also have access to prospects'  medical information that isn't publicly known, which can cause a prospect to fall.

 

I just hope Beane doesn't get antsy and trade up for a wide receiver in a draft with this much depth.

 

^^^

 

12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

But what kind of depth are we talking about?  Are there 10 guys who can #1 WR's?  Cosell has 3 immediate guys and 2 that should become a #1 according to his scouting.

 

Do you say wait to draft a guy that will develop into a really good #2 and that's it?  

 

From the mocks I've seen, it seems likely that 4 QBs and 6 OTs plus 1 TE go in the first round, all before #28.   The top 3 WRs will be gone before long before #28, so these will account for about half the picks before #28.   It seems to me that the Bills could very well stay put or trade up just a couple of spots and grab a really good WR.  

 

As the OP pointed out, numerous WR1s have come out of the bottom of the first and the second round.  Just because a draftnik or pundit gives Player A a first round grade and Player B a second round grade means nothing.   It's their opinions, and their livelihoods don't depend upon them getting the picks right -- just that their opinions draw viewers, clicks, interest etc. 

 

Moreover, taking a WR high in the first round doesn't guarantee success, even with a QB like Allen.   I'd rather the Bills select a prospect in a different position if he's a better prospect than any of the WRs left, or even trade back some spots,  rather than take a WR whom they're only lukewarm about just to take a WR in the first.

 

[Victory Formation]

Marino was talking about this on his show today. I love him, great guy, but I could not disagree more. He says we may not go WR in RD1 and he was making a case that we don’t go WR until RD 2-4.

 

You have my word, if we take Cooper DeJean or some other position that is not WR I will lose it.

[Nextmanup]

The overall theme is that these guys do NOT know how to properly evaluate talent, even though they ALL think they do.

 

The overwhelming superstar of the WR class might go early second round.  Who knows.

 

Look at all the highly paid NFL executives/scouts who completely BOTCHED the QB position in the 2018 draft as just one recent example we are all probably familiar with.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 10 by Nextmanup

[3rdand12]

On 4/9/2024 at 6:34 PM, Aussie Joe said:

Since Diggs .. I’m starting to talk myself into a guy like McMillan or Baker…if you got one of them ..provided they were paired with an earlier pick say Mitchell, Legette or McConkey.. I think  I’d be happy with that ..  

 

I mean ..could they even get that accomplished with a trade down from 28 into the mid/ late thirties in return  for a third round for say Javon  Baker … and picking for example a D lineman at 60?

 

Probably the best case scenario for the draft … if you didn’t want to trade up 

 

 

 

Why do you prefer those two? McMillan and Baker ??
Would be glad to read why you are liking them

On 4/9/2024 at 6:35 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

With the 28th pick in the 2024 NFL draft the Buffalo Bills select …….

The Bills have traded the 28th pick to  ......  lol

Edited April 10 by 3rdand12

[3rdand12]

23 hours ago, Allen2D̶i̶g̶g̶s̶TBD said:

I would rather take a wr in both the 1st and 2nd round than trade up to the top 15 for a receiver.

 

Adonai Mitchell or Brian Thomas may be there at #28 and then take McConkey, Franklin, or Wilson at #60.

Bills need two

This is a great discussion point . reach for It ?  BTW Harrison wont be there.  period  .

Risk is supposedly calculated when done right lol

 

What really best serves the Bills Offense today and in the future

 

[3rdand12]

7 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

^^^

 

 

From the mocks I've seen, it seems likely that 4 QBs and 6 OTs plus 1 TE go in the first round, all before #28.   The top 3 WRs will be gone before long before #28, so these will account for about half the picks before #28.   It seems to me that the Bills could very well stay put or trade up just a couple of spots and grab a really good WR.  

 

As the OP pointed out, numerous WR1s have come out of the bottom of the first and the second round.  Just because a draftnik or pundit gives Player A a first round grade and Player B a second round grade means nothing.   It's their opinions, and their livelihoods don't depend upon them getting the picks right -- just that their opinions draw viewers, clicks, interest etc. 

 

Moreover, taking a WR high in the first round doesn't guarantee success, even with a QB like Allen.   I'd rather the Bills select a prospect in a different position if he's a better prospect than any of the WRs left, or even trade back some spots,  rather than take a WR whom they're only lukewarm about just to take a WR in the first.

 

Its about getting the right fit. as i have mentioned

and the ability to develop and use that pick.

 Perhaps there are some players that will just plain kick ars no matter what the situation.

Pick well Beanes because this WR selection(s) one really matters

 signed 

Josh

 

[NewEra]

4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

The overall theme is that SOME of these guys do NOT know how to properly evaluate talent, even though they ALL think they do.

 

The overwhelming superstar of the WR class might go early second round.  Who knows.

 

Look at all the highly paid NFL executives/scouts who completely BOTCHED the QB position in the 2018 draft as just one recent example we are all probably familiar with.

 

 

 

 

Fixed.  Spot on though 

[BigDingus]

On 4/9/2024 at 2:48 PM, Beck Water said:

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

 

All this tells me is that you have a 61% chance to find one of these WRs outside of the 1st round, and only a 39% chance within it 😉

 

The Bills just have to be smart and take multiple shots at it. They'll find one eventually!

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

All this tells me is that you have a 61% chance to find one of these WRs outside of the 1st round, and only a 39% chance within it 😉

 

The Bills just have to be smart and take multiple shots at it. They'll find one eventually!

 

Well, no, that's not quite it.

 

We're looking at the pool of WR who were top-20 in Y/G for at least 1 of the last 3 seasons, and asking where they were drafted.  So of the top WR, 61% didn't get drafted in the 1st round, true.

 

But when you're trying to FIND a WR, you have to look at how many WR were available to be selected (or how many projected to be drafted in that round) and ask what the odds of finding a successful WR are, overall for that round.

 

So, for example, in 2023 there were 19 WR drafted in the 4th round or later.  One (Puka Nacua) lit it up.  So odds from random chance would be 1 in 19 of getting a top WR in the 4th round or later.

 

Of course, the Bills talent evaluators would like to believe it's not a random event due to careful evaluation of the prospects in person and study of their film.

[Aussie Joe]

6 hours ago, Victory Formation said:

Marino was talking about this on his show today. I love him, great guy, but I could not disagree more. He says we may not go WR in RD1 and he was making a case that we don’t go WR until RD 2-4.

 

You have my word, if we take Cooper DeJean or some other position that is not WR I will lose it.

No to DeJean over WR … I  agree …

 

If Latu was there at 28…. That would make me think though …

[Snappysnackcakes]

Devontez Walker is a humble kid. If he’s available, he’s our #2 pick. I follow UNC. 

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

It would be interesting to correlate the data with good or elite QB play.  Some of the guys going in the top half of the draft probably went into a bad QB situation.  

 

For sure, valid point.  Not just QB situation, but overall team situation - talent around them at receiver, OL quality, coaching, OC.

[Ray Stonada]

Thanks for this, Beck W.

 

WR salaries are set to rise a lot, according to the Athletic. 

 

I think this means even more that we need to be drafting our next WR1.

 

Josh Allen is set to start phase 3 of his career. In Phase 1 (2018, 2019) he was learning. Phase 2 (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) he had Diggs (who I loved, for the record) and Co. For Phase 3, he needs a cost controlled WR room that is reliable and interchangeable, with no one receiver demanding the ball. A costly free agent WR or a top of the first round rookie tend to expect more targets. 

 

All of this says WR1 in the late first round or lower is a better fit, so I hope that's what we do. 

 

[3rdand12]

20 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

No to DeJean over WR … I  agree …

 

If Latu was there at 28…. That would make me think though …

yea right

[Beast]

On 4/9/2024 at 6:01 PM, Dunkirk Donski said:

Once we get this all figured out can someone send a “best of OBD” over to Beane and Co. to make sure they get it right? 

Yeah, because fans know more than the scouts and GM that do it for a living.

 

🤡 

[Dunkirk Donski]

12 hours ago, Beast said:

Yeah, because fans know more than the scouts and GM that do it for a living.

 

🤡

I’m sure most of the crew here would tell Beane and his crew exactly what to do.  Monday morning quarterbacks know best 

[GunnerBill]

On 4/10/2024 at 2:23 AM, NoSaint said:

Maybe I am using hindsight but when recalling top ten WR the last decade I dont recall white, Ross or Davis being considered can’t miss generational talents in the way you do these 3, chase, Julio/green were considered THAT guy. 
 

I won’t say I’m an expert in this top three but it feels like they are universally regarded in that tier that doesn’t bust much as opposed to the other category that were just the best options in their given year.

 

the Ross/white/waddle/smith/London/Wilson  crew feel like they are more akin to this years second tier and those are coin flip guys. 

 

I think Smith was possibly somewhere between the two tiers kinda 1 and a half. But I take the point. The guy considered closest to "can't miss" that has been a high profile bust (or at least overdraft) has been Jeudy.

 

Edited April 13 by GunnerBill

[Thurman#1]

On 4/11/2024 at 12:01 AM, Bruffalo said:

WR is arguably the 2nd most important position in Football.  If you're not moving up, I think double dipping becomes necessary. You might even want a 3rd later round guy for bottom of the roster competition. 

 

I get that there are other holes like DT, Safety, EDGE but we actually have serviceable players right now in those positions, which is just not the case at WR.   

 

 

I see what you're saying her, but I think that's a stretch, WR at 2nd most important position.

 

Pass-rushing DE is an important factor on every pass play and many run plays.

 

Receivers are window dressing on most run plays and most pass plays where they don't get looked at or thrown to. I put reciever tied for 3rd, myself.

 

And while the Bills have serviceable EDGEs, we don't have a serviceable pass rushing EDGE across from Groot unless we get lucky with Von Miller. Could happen but it should absolutely not be counted on. If you can't pressure Mahomes better than we have, you aren't going to have much luck against him. And we lost our best sack artist this off-season and haven't brought in another. I'm not worried about us being able to set the edge, but rushing the passer? Yeah, I'm worried.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Smith was possibly somewhere between the two tiers kinda 1 and a half. But I take the point. The guy considered closest to "can't miss" that has been a high profile bust (or at least overdraft) has been Jeudy.

 

I got a little curious and clicked through a few old profiles and will agree that the smith writeups/grades were a shade higher than I expected. In my head he wasn’t a guy that had quite the accolades that he actually did 

 

i keep think of jamarr chase as that gold standard type player, right? Prototype athleticism, big production, and both a high floor and a high ceiling. Unlikely to bust, and truly having expectation that he could be in the rare air at the top. The Andrew luck qb. The aj green/Julio Jones draft year for wr.
 

I’ll be totally honest, I haven’t spent a ton with this set of 3. Post-diggs I spent a little more and am working on my opinions that I think they are a cut above the normal top wr prospects, and working on whether my convictions are truly in the next level or if there may be some 1.5er talent mixed in there like you referred to smith (and of course that doesn’t mean bust like smith but more potential on the table for that to happen). 

 

Edited April 13 by NoSaint

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I got a little curious and clicked through a few old profiles and will agree that the smith writeups/grades were a shade higher than I expected. In my head he wasn’t a guy that had quite the accolades that he actually did 

 

i keep think of jamarr chase as that gold standard type player, right? Prototype athleticism, big production, and both a high floor and a high ceiling. Unlikely to bust, and truly having expectation that he could be in the rare air at the top. The Andrew luck qb. The aj green/Julio Jones draft year for wr.
 

I’ll be totally honest, I haven’t spent a ton with this set of 3. Post-diggs I spent a little more and am working on my opinions that I think they are a cut above the normal top wr prospects, and working on whether my convictions are truly in the next level or if there may be some 1.5er talent mixed in there like you referred to smith (and of course that doesn’t mean bust like smith but more potential on the table for that to happen). 

 

 

Personally I have Harrison and Nabers in the gold standard category. Odunze more in the Smith space. But these 3 are all legit. As said the other day they are better than every receiver last year and by most consensus 2022 as well (although I was high on Olave that year). 

[Billsatlastin2018]

Critical WR Requirements:

 

1) Catch the freaking ball;

2) Gain separation and catch the freaking ball;

3) Have the size and ability to catch the freaking contested ball.

 

4) See 1-3.

[Charles Romes]

On 4/9/2024 at 3:48 PM, Beck Water said:

If you want measurables or scouting reports, move on now.

 

I thought it would be interesting to look at where some of the top WR were drafted.

 

I started by looking at Y/G for the top-20 WR for the last 3 years.  I used Y/G to normalize for  injuries to WR or QB.

 

There were 8 guys who have been in the top 20 for 3 years, showing consistency.

Draft position: round-overall pick

1-5

1-17

1-22

2-51
2-53
3-76

5-146
5-165

 

 

3 from Rd 1 (1 top 10 pick, 2 from the bottom half of the round)

2 from Rd 2

1 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

Another 8 guys 2 of 3 years: round-overall pick

1-4

1-6

1-7
1-7

1-11
1-24

3-69

3-84

 

Adding both groups together

9 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half of the 1st, 3 bottom half)

2 from Rd 2

3 from Rd 3

2 from Rd 5

 

12 guys who appeared in the top-20 1 of 3 years (keep in mind, this includes rookies and guys whose QB fell to injury): round-overall pick

1-25

1-27

2-33

2-34

2-36

2-52

2-64

3-66

3-69

3-89

4-112

5-177

 

Adding all 3 groups together

11 from Rd 1 (5 top-10 picks, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

7 from Rd 2 (3 early 2nd, 4 2nd half of the 2nd)

6 from Rd 3

1 from Rd 4

3 from Rd 5

 

So, of 28 WR who have been top-20 for at least 1 of the past 3 years:

39% from Rd 1 (5 top-10, 1 top half, 5 bottom half)

25% from Rd 2

21% from Rd 3

4% from Rd 4

11% from Rd 5

What's my takehome from this?  The odds are highest to get a top WR in the 1st, but the chances are about even between the top and bottom half of the round.

Pretty good odds from Rd 2 and 3

After that, you can still draft a good WR but, it's a lottery ticket

 

If I feel energetic, I may go back and look at how many WR were drafted ahead of each of these guys.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree there is a distribution. But within the top statistical players there are a lot of smaller receivers who work the slot. To get the prototypical big X like we need you generally need to reach higher on the draft board.