NFL Trade Chart - For those interested

[ToGoGo]

9 hours ago, Virgil said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios.  This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves.  Just putting information out there.

 

Bills Picks - Value

#28 - 660

#60 - 300

#128 - 44

#133 - 39.5

2025 #1 - 300

2025 #2 132

2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?

 

These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:

5 - 1700

10 - 1300

15 - 1050

20 - 850

 

So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:

Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.

Why is a 2025 #1 only 300 points? 

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, Virgil said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios.  This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves.  Just putting information out there.

 

Bills Picks - Value

#28 - 660

#60 - 300

#128 - 44

#133 - 39.5

2025 #1 - 300

2025 #2 132

2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?

 

These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:

5 - 1700

10 - 1300

15 - 1050

20 - 850

 

So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:

Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.

Virg, thanks for injecting wisdom into these draft trade up swaps based on value charts.  It’s older, but Jimmy Johnson with coined this chart and most follow it.

 

As anyone has N idea, make sure we’re close on trade value, or it’s just fantasy Madden land.

[BillsfaninSB]

With the exception of 2018, the Bills will do what they normally do.  Stay put or move up a few spots. 

[CarolinaBillsFan]

That was helpful, thanks!!

[Tipster19]

18 hours ago, Virgil said:

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

For those interested in trading up, here's some scenarios.  This is not to say that I want to Bills to make any of these moves.  Just putting information out there.

 

Bills Picks - Value

#28 - 660

#60 - 300

#128 - 44

#133 - 39.5

2025 #1 - 300

2025 #2 132

2025 #2 (Diggs) - 150?

 

These are the values of different tiers in the top 20 for this draft:

5 - 1700

10 - 1300

15 - 1050

20 - 850

 

So, for those who want a top 4 receiver, which are projected to go in the top 10-15, you'd be looking at:

Top 10 - 1300 Value - #28, #60, #133, 2025 #1 

Top 15 - 1050 Value - #28, #60 or next year's 1st, and #2 next year from Diggs trade

 

For me, that's way to rich for my blood in such a deep draft class.  But, I also wouldn't be surprised if one of them fell beyond 10.

Thanks for posting this! Since the Diggs’ trade I’ve pondering Beane’s rationale and of course a trade up in the draft is almost a guarantee. Under that assumption Came up with some possibilities, 3 as a matter of fact.
 

When Beane gave up his 1st rd pick for Diggs it almost killed him. He was itching so bad during that draft. I remember him stopping just short of saying that he would never give up a 1st rder again unless it was in an extreme circumstance. Well, here we are! What I believe what Beane might be thinking is he can trade next year’s 1st rd pick this year because he has 2 2nd rd picks next year that he can pair up and get back into the 1st rd again. Just food for thought.

 

Scenario #1. Using the above chart Beane goes COMPLETELY all in and makes a trade with the Bears at #9. The Bears only have 4 picks in the entire draft so I could see them moving back to acquire more picks. This serves twofold, it gets them one of the top 3 WRs in the draft and it also leapfrogs the Jets at #10 who very well could be taking one of the top WRs themselves. My guess would be it’s for Rome Odunze.

 

Scenario #2. Once again Beane makes another leapfrog move and trades up with the Saints at #14 just before the Colts at #15. In this scenario it’s for LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. Based on LSU WRs in the past (Chase & Jefferson) being so pro ready I believe that this is our best option for Diggs’ replacement. Git ‘er done Beanie!

 

Scenario #3. The Bills just stand pat at #28 and draft Georgia WR Ladd McConkey. Under this scenario I would think that the Bills would also make a trade for a veteran like Brandon Aiyuk. I won’t venture what the compensation would be but the Bills but I would imagine that Buffalo will have enough resources left to get a trade like this done. 
 

Personally I like Scenario #2 the best and that’s what I’m hoping for.

 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

9 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

Why is a 2025 #1 only 300 points? 

In reality, it’s speculative.  Obviously very much depends where the Bills finish in 2024.  My understanding to get the value of a pick in next year’s draft, you essentially go back a round from this year’s draft.  A 2nd round pick in this year’s draft is worth 270-580, depending on where one is picking.  So if you think the Bills will be better than worse in 2024, their 2025 #1 is worth closer to 270 than 580.

[OldTimer1960]

18 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I am probably more on the train for Brian Thomas in the top 15 than I am going up to say 9 which I think is the likeliest spot. I do think there is a good possibility that Rome Odunze could slip and I would love to get him.

 

If the Bears want to do it, I think you have to add in this years draft picks since they dont have many.  A lot of people suggest the Rich Hill Model now.

 

Bears pick:

9 (Worth 387 points)

2025 4th Rounder(Worth 15 points)

 

Total: 402 Points

 

 

Bills trade:

28(209 points)

2025 1st Rounder(120 points)

2024 4th Rounder(19 points)

2024 5th Rounder(13 Points)

2025 3rd Rounder (50 points)

 

Total: 411 points

 

This would give the Bills the opportunity to draft Rome Odunze at 9

 

This would leave the Bills in the 2024 draft with: 9, 60, 4th rounder, 2 5th rounders, 2 6th rounders, and a 7th rounder....this leaves the Bills with 8 draft picks

 

Next Year: 2nd(Vikings), 2nd (Bills) 4th, 4th(Davis Comp pick), 4th(Bears Trade) 5th, 5th (Floyd Comp pick), 6, 6(Basham Trade)......this leaves the Bills with 9 draft picks next year.

 

I think this is a very plausible scenario for Rome if he falls.

 

 

I think 2025 3rd would be discounted to value of a 4th this year.

[Chaos]

19 hours ago, Virgil said:

2025 #1 - 300

This seems wrong. 

[T master]

19 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This Diggs trade doesn't change a thing for me. I still would like to see them trade out of round 1. Pick up an extra day 2 pick this year and some MORE picks next year and get that WR in round 2. The class is deep enough.

 

What would you think if they could trade back and stay in lower round 1 pick but get a round 3 pick seeing as they don't have one this year ?

[MrEpsYtown]

I just don’t think you should trade a future 1 to get up for a guy who isn’t a QB. We’ve been down this road with Sammy Watkins and it just didn’t work. Julio Jones sticks out as a pretty much the only time it worked. I know we are in a different place, but I just think it is extremely risky. I am more ok with a huge trade up since we have that extra second rounder. But it has to be with a team who is punting on QB this year and wants the extra pick next year. Maybe that is Denver. We shall see. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Just now, T master said:

 

What would you think if they could trade back and stay in lower round 1 pick but get a round 3 pick seeing as they don't have one this year ?

I mean, back is back. The only team picking 29-32 that I see wanting to move up might be Kansas City...and not sure I want to make their path to getting their guy easier unless they make it very worthwhile. 

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Thank You Virgil, I was looking for something like this. 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

This seems wrong. 

 

It's been said a few times in here, but future year picks value are reduced by one round.  No one knows where a team will pick next year, so the value is typically guessed to be similar to the current draft.  So the Bills Round 1 pick in 2025 would be worth the same value as their 2024 Round 2 pick.   Could the Bills finish much worse next year and the pick be worth more, possibly.  But that can't be known at this time. 

[ToGoGo]

2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

In reality, it’s speculative.  Obviously very much depends where the Bills finish in 2024.  My understanding to get the value of a pick in next year’s draft, you essentially go back a round from this year’s draft.  A 2nd round pick in this year’s draft is worth 270-580, depending on where one is picking.  So if you think the Bills will be better than worse in 2024, their 2025 #1 is worth closer to 270 than 580.

Doesn’t make sense. Bills pick 28th this year. Worst they can do next year is 32nd. Teams know it’s going to be worth at least 600 points. 
 

I don’t know, if I was selling, I wouldn’t like these prices. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

3 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

Doesn’t make sense. Bills pick 28th this year. Worst they can do next year is 32nd. Teams know it’s going to be worth at least 600 points. 
 

I don’t know, if I was selling, I wouldn’t like these prices. 

Right, but the pick is a year down the road, rather than in this year’s draft.  The value of a 1st round pick in next year’s draft is worth less today, versus 1st round pick in this year’s draft.  Give me $100 today, and I’ll give you the $100 back in 10 years w no interest.  Sound like a good deal?

[Big Turk]

That chart is old and doesn't properly value picks...many teams have moved on to ones using analytics that actually show how valuable those picks actually HAVE BEEN historically rather than using random numbers assigned to them 40 years ago that seemingly were made up out of thin air, which is why many trades don't seem all that aligned to that chart anymore.

Edited April 4 by Big Turk

[WotAGuy]

Trade 28 far enough down to get someone’s first next year and have a pair of 1s and 2s next year. Take advantage of the deep class this year and position yourself to do something special next year. 
 

The cap situation will be much better and the draft position will be much better. Use this year to prep for a big 2025. 
 

 

Edited April 4 by WotAGuy

[Billzgobowlin]

21 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The top 3 WR's will go in the top 10. We aren't going up that high without seriously negatively impacting this team for years, worse than $30 mil dead cap or Von Miller's contract 

With 4 QBs set to go in the top 10 and Brock Bowers there too I don't think its unreasonable to see one of the top 3 dropping, most likely Odunze

13 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Trade 28 far enough down to get someone’s first next year and have a pair of 1s and 2s next year. Take advantage of the deep class this year and position yourself to do something special next year. 
 

The cap situation will be much better and the draft position will be much better. Use this year to prep for a big 2025. 
 

 

Cap situation will be worse next year. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

It's been said a few times in here, but future year picks value are reduced by one round.  No one knows where a team will pick next year, so the value is typically guessed to be similar to the current draft.  So the Bills Round 1 pick in 2025 would be worth the same value as their 2024 Round 2 pick.   Could the Bills finish much worse next year and the pick be worth more, possibly.  But that can't be known at this time. 

The standard draft chart considers a first rounder in the next year at 1000.   Because no one knows in where it lands in the first round.  Even the 32 pick one year out is worth more than 300. 

[Virgil]

Just now, Chaos said:

The standard draft chart considers a first rounder in the next year at 1000.   Because no one knows in where it lands in the first round.  Even the 32 pick one year out is worth more than 300. 

Where are you seeing that?  First I’ve heard that 

[ToGoGo]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Right, but the pick is a year down the road, rather than in this year’s draft.  The value of a 1st round pick in next year’s draft is worth less today, versus 1st round pick in this year’s draft.  Give me $100 today, and I’ll give you the $100 back in 10 years w no interest.  Sound like a good deal?

It’s $100 in 1 year, not 10. 
 

And the drop from 1st round to 2nd round is a lot more than 5th round to 6th round for example. 

I’m just saying if I was GM, I wouldn’t like that value reasoning. 

 

[Success]

4 hours ago, Tipster19 said:

Thanks for posting this! Since the Diggs’ trade I’ve pondering Beane’s rationale and of course a trade up in the draft is almost a guarantee. Under that assumption Came up with some possibilities, 3 as a matter of fact.
 

When Beane gave up his 1st rd pick for Diggs it almost killed him. He was itching so bad during that draft. I remember him stopping just short of saying that he would never give up a 1st rder again unless it was in an extreme circumstance. Well, here we are! What I believe what Beane might be thinking is he can trade next year’s 1st rd pick this year because he has 2 2nd rd picks next year that he can pair up and get back into the 1st rd again. Just food for thought.

 

Scenario #1. Using the above chart Beane goes COMPLETELY all in and makes a trade with the Bears at #9. The Bears only have 4 picks in the entire draft so I could see them moving back to acquire more picks. This serves twofold, it gets them one of the top 3 WRs in the draft and it also leapfrogs the Jets at #10 who very well could be taking one of the top WRs themselves. My guess would be it’s for Rome Odunze.

 

Scenario #2. Once again Beane makes another leapfrog move and trades up with the Saints at #14 just before the Colts at #15. In this scenario it’s for LSU WR Brian Thomas Jr. Based on LSU WRs in the past (Chase & Jefferson) being so pro ready I believe that this is our best option for Diggs’ replacement. Git ‘er done Beanie!

 

Scenario #3. The Bills just stand pat at #28 and draft Georgia WR Ladd McConkey. Under this scenario I would think that the Bills would also make a trade for a veteran like Brandon Aiyuk. I won’t venture what the compensation would be but the Bills but I would imagine that Buffalo will have enough resources left to get a trade like this done. 
 

Personally I like Scenario #2 the best and that’s what I’m hoping for.

 

 

 

Great breakdown of the options.  My preference would be the 1st - with no #1 on this team, I'd really love to get one of the top 3 guys.

 

Would you (or anyone) think there is a chance we might trade w/ the Giants & try to get Nabers?

 

[billykay]

23 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

The top 3 WR's will go in the top 10. We aren't going up that high without seriously negatively impacting this team for years, worse than $30 mil dead cap or Von Miller's contract 

Think NYG. They are the new Carolina Panthers.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, ToGoGo said:

It’s $100 in 1 year, not 10. 
 

And the drop from 1st round to 2nd round is a lot more than 5th round to 6th round for example. 

I’m just saying if I was GM, I wouldn’t like that value reasoning. 

 

I’m sure each GM has a way more complicated value reasoning system that our rule of thumbs are giving credit for, or at least they should.  

[Matt_In_NH]

On 4/3/2024 at 1:21 PM, strive_for_five_guy said:

No doubt in my mind Beane plans to use draft capital from next year’s draft, in order to move up in either the 1st or 2nd round this year and draft the WR he wants.  Question is who does he really like and how much is he willing to spend.

If next years 1 is worth the same as this years pick at the end of two you wont get up too far to justify it to me.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

If next years 1 is worth the same as this years pick at the end of two you wont get up too far to justify it to me.

To me it will come down to whether a WR that Beane really likes slips to within range.  So like one of Top 3 slips outside of Top 10, or Thomas Jr is there within striking range and Beane really likes him.  Otherwise, Beane would need to really love one of the other WRs to move up from 28 at all.  And if he’s got like 2-3 guys graded late 1st or 2nd round, he could either trade up/down into middle of 2nd.

[26TrapDraw]

As I sit and think about our draft plan now that Stef is gone. Wonder if there’s a trade partner that takes our swapped pick next years 2 for Stef and Dawson Knox for a TE needy team. After Brock Bowers,  there won’t be an elite tight end . Just throwing crap against the wall. Thoughts?

[Tipster19]

10 hours ago, Success said:

 

Great breakdown of the options.  My preference would be the 1st - with no #1 on this team, I'd really love to get one of the top 3 guys.

 

Would you (or anyone) think there is a chance we might trade w/ the Giants & try to get Nabers?

 

I wouldn’t put nothing past Beane but it does take two to tango and with that being said I don’t know if the Bills have enough resources to move up that far for the Giants to be willing to move all the way back to #28. I’d be against it but I would think that one of our players like a Greg Rosseau would have to be a part of the compensation.