Joe Marino's Locked on Bills Mock Free Agency

[DJB]

53 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Cool plan, but Epenesa at 7m/yr? Hard pass. 

Yup lost me at the Epenesa contract. Starting money for a guy that’s barely done anything 

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 minutes ago, DJB said:

Yup lost me at the Epenesa contract. Starting money for a guy that’s barely done anything 

Modern day free agency. Someone will pay him 15. Some team with loads of capspace that thinks he's ready for a larger role and ready to break out. It won't be us.

[Chaos]

41 minutes ago, mannc said:

It's a hard position to learn in the NFL.  Plenty of TEs have had their best seasons in their late 20s and early 30s.  Knox is 27 and he's a starting caliber TE.  If we cut him, we'd need to develop or sign another TE.  Dalton Schultz is a comparable player and Houston just signed him for 3 years and $36 million, about what Knox is getting... 

Shuzla is TE1.   Knox is unquestionably TE2.  Not a reasonable comp.

[mannc]

Just now, Chaos said:

Shuzla is TE1.   Knox is unquestionably TE2.  Not a reasonable comp.

That's debatable.  Kincaid is really more of a WR...I'd say they are 1A and 1B.

[DCofNC]

37 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

First, I listen to Marino's podcast and I enjoy it because he is pragmatic and brings reasonable arguments, he is not always right but his thought process is good.  What Marino said is what would need to happen.  Knox is a restructure, not an extension.  Not sure what you mean by same outcome without extending, guessing you mean restructure but that is what he is proposing for Knox already.  Dawkins is an extension and that is needed to lower his cap number, he is in the last year of his deal..  He already has void money next year so they could add to that but they could extend  him to keep him on the team after this year.  

 

I hate the Zeke signing, he is done, I would rather keep the 6th or 7th round pick.

Did you watch Zeke last year?  The guy is not done, he looked pretty darn good.  He would be a nice compliment to Cook and he can still catch the ball.   He’s not being asked to carry the load, just be the #2.

27 minutes ago, DJB said:

Yup lost me at the Epenesa contract. Starting money for a guy that’s barely done anything 

That’s not CLOSE to starting money for a DE.

[Chaos]

32 minutes ago, mannc said:

That's debatable.  Kincaid is really more of a WR...I'd say they are 1A and 1B.

There is no debate. Kincaid is TE1. 

[BuffaloRebound]

If by restructure, they mean pay-cut then yes I’m all for a Knox re-structure.  

[Matt_In_NH]

49 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Did you watch Zeke last year?  The guy is not done, he looked pretty darn good.  He would be a nice compliment to Cook and he can still catch the ball.   He’s not being asked to carry the load, just be the #2.

That’s not CLOSE to starting money for a DE.

 I live in NE so yes I did.  He averaged 3.5 YPC

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Shuzla is TE1.   Knox is unquestionably TE2.  Not a reasonable comp.

Would Schultz be TE1 here? No. 

[Chaos]

Just now, JGMcD2 said:

Would Schultz be TE1 here? No. 

You comment indicates you don't underststand the point of  the discussion. 

[JGMcD2]

Just now, Chaos said:

You comment indicates you don't underststand the point of  the discussion. 

I promise I do underststand, I also understand as well. 
 

It’s a plenty reasonable comp. Schultz is a comparable player to Dawson Knox, their spots on the depth chart are a product of their environment and not their talent. The Bills have two starting caliber TE, Houston has one. 
 

I’ll ask again, would Dalton Schultz be TE1 here in Buffalo? 

[NeverOutNick]

1 minute ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Not a fan of Duvernay.  Maybe he's good at PR, but I recall quite a few drops while in Baltimore.  How is he different than Sherfield?

Duvernay may not be an every down player. Right now he’d be a #5 but man is he special with the ball in his hands. I’m still holding out that he can turn into an every down player but even if he’s our returner and gadget guy he’s amazing at both of those roles. Way better than McKenzie or Harty

[Robert Paulson]

8 hours ago, beebe said:

i get that the bills have no choice but to restructure Allen, but he has counted less than 10% against the cap the last few years, including this past year. the depth on the roster wasn't good enough to overcome injuries. now his cap figure is going to be about double what it's been for remaining years on his contract, and that's before taking into account that he deserves a new deal. the bills have to start crushing drafts. endless restructures, void year contracts etc is not sustainable. 

it started this year with bloody Wednesday. We kept running it back with the too old/too expensive old guard chasing a ring and finally had to turn the roster without winning one. next year is Von, Diggs and maybe a restructure at TE with Knox to drop him to TE 2 money. No more money on special teams moving forward as well. it will be almost all youth with an old  captain trying to keep it together

 

I'm a broken record on this- 13 seconds was our chance and Mc Dermot froze up and blew it. we could have reset the roster after that, we wouldn't have needed to reach for Von and we would be looking at things in a whole different light  right now. 

[Sharky7337]

No way am I giving epenesa 20 m sorry.

 

I love his work but he lost a little flcred on talent evaluation with the Bernard and Edmunds takes.

Edited March 10 by Sharky7337

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, Chaos said:

There is no debate. Kincaid is TE1. 

He’s certainly a better receiver than Knox, but he hasn’t learned to be an effective blocker yet. That limits his usefulness to the slot while Knox can play in-line. Until Kincaid develops as a blocker those two play different positions, even if they’re both labeled TEs. 

Edited March 10 by BarleyNY

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

He’s certainly a better receiver than Knox, but he hasn’t learned to be an effective blocker yet. That limits his usefulness to the slot while Knox can play in-line. Until Kincaid develops as a blocker those two play different positions, even if they’re both labeled TEs. 

Hope this clears things up for the confused.  I am not going to do the research, but I am guessing Knox is the highest paid TE2 in the NFL. 

[nosejob]

11 minutes ago, Sharky7337 said:

No way am I giving epenesa 20 m sorry.

 

I love his work but he lost a little flcred on talent evaluation with the Bernard and Edmunds takes.

I could see them maybe getting AJE on a 3 yr. 27mil. with a good signing bonus. Wouldn't mind that at all. I'd really be surprised if some team went over the top to pay him for a starting role. I think he's got it in him and would rather it be here.

 

Then again, I wouldn't mind hearing tomorrow, they got their hands on Bryce Huff.

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hope this clears things up for the confused.  I am not going to do the research, but I am guessing Knox is the highest paid TE2 in the NFL. 

 

Not really. Actual player usage is what is important - and right now their usage is different. Which player someone labels TE1 is immaterial. That was my point, not that a specific player deserves that label. 

 

Edited to add: I think the long-term plan is for Kincaid to develop as a blocker and become a do-it-all TE. That will pave the way for the team to move on from Knox. But Kincaid is not there yet. 

Edited March 10 by BarleyNY

[nosejob]

17 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Not really. Actual player usage is what is important - and right now their usage is different. Which player someone labels TE1 is immaterial. That was my point, not that a specific player deserves that label. 

 

Edited to add: I think the long-term plan is for Kincaid to develop as a blocker and become a do-it-all TE. That will pave the way for the team to move on from Knox. But Kincaid is not there yet. 

I don't get the Knox hate. He spent all of 2022 having to pass pro for a crappy Oline. God forbid Kincaid gets injured.

[JGMcD2]

56 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Hope this clears things up for the confused.  I am not going to do the research, but I am guessing Knox is the highest paid TE2 in the NFL. 

Talk about lack of understanding. You seem to be the expert lol

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

But I think it's conservative in the fact that he didn't really go after any double digit million guys (per year) , and choose to spread the money out to a bunch of "middling " to "low end" guys.

 

I guess it depends how you look at it💪

 

I mean, we really can't afford to do anything too liberal. With everything Joe Marino did (or as little as he did, depending on your view), there's just 5m left over for Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, emergency spending, etc. We'd have to find a way to come up with even more by the end of Camp just to do the conservative projection he did. And things like Dion's and Taron's extensions aren't guaranteed to be hammered out between the agents and Beane by the start of Free Agency. 

 

The list of expired or released contracts this season is MASSIVE. Even if you take into account the players that we've re-signed so far, the players he projects re-signing, and players that have already been effectively replaced last season (ie Douglas for White, Joseph for Phillips, Murray for Hines, etc.) - there's still 17 bodies from the 53 that need to be replaced, with only 2 picks before the end of Round 4:

 

Kyle Allen (Replaced by Mitch Trubisky)
Damien Harris 
Latavius Murray
Ty Johnson (Re-Signed Projection)
Nyheim Hines (Not on the Roster Last Season)
Gabe Davis
Deonte Harty
Trent Sherfield
Quintin Morris (Re-Signed)
Mitch Morse
Ryan Bates
David Edwards (Re-Signed)
Leonard Floyd
AJ Epenesa (Re-Signed Projection)
Shaq Lawson 
Daquan Jones (Re-Signed Projection)
Tim Settle
Jordan Phillips
Linval Joseph (Midseason Replacement for Phillips)
Poona Ford
Tyrel Dodson
Tyler Matakevitch
Tre White (Replaced by Douglas)
Dane Jackson (Re-Signed Projection)
Siran Neal
Jordan Poyer 
Micah Hyde
Taylor Rapp (Re-Signed)
Cam Lewis (Re-Signed Projection)

 

Like it or not, a good chunk of our money is going to have to go to depth players. As it is, with this projection - we'd be relying on 6 Rookies between the Draft and Undrafted Pool for the 53. That's already double the amount of Rookie players we had on the roster last year in Kincaid, Cybo, and Dorian.

 

I know most fans are in the mind of "the window is closing - we have to get major difference makers now". But with the shape the roster is in, where we are cap wise, and where we're picking in the Draft - this year we're just going to have to do the best we can to fill the 53 with the best we can get across the board.

 

Luckily, the core of what gets us to the dance is largely in place and the players we're replacing won't be difficult to upgrade with even conservative options.

[HappyDays]

Love Joe, but his mock offseason would depress me. It has a very "running it back" kind of feel. Jones back after a major injury, Epenesa paid way above his true value, bringing back players like Jackson and Lewis and Johnson that can be found on day 3 of the draft or in late stage FA. Not a single difference maker brought in, just a lot of rotational players. Offseasons like this is why we haven't gotten over the hump.

 

Similarly I don't like his draft. McConkey in the 1st round would be a mistake IMO, he has no special traits and projects as maybe a faster Cole Beasley. He's a 2nd round talent. Braden Fiske is probably a late 3rd round talent. He is a 3-tech only so he would be a rotational player for us. His weakness in scouting reports is hand usage, which is a good predictor of a player not translating to the NFL. Honestly reminds me of Boogie Basham, a 24 year old prospect who may have already maxed out his abilities and has poor hand usage.

 

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

Edited March 10 by HappyDays

[BillsFanForever19]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Love Joe, but his mock offseason would depress me. It has a very "running it back" kind of feel. Jones back after a major injury, Epenesa paid way above his true value, bringing back players like Jackson and Lewis and Johnson that can be found on day 3 of the draft or in late stage FA. Not a single difference maker brought in, just a lot of rotational players. Offseasons like this is why we haven't gotten over the hump.

 

Similarly I don't like his draft. McConkey in the 1st round would be a mistake IMO, he has no special traits and project as maybe a faster Cole Beasley. He's a 2nd round talent. Braden Fiske is probably a 3rd round talent. He is a 3-tech only so he would be a rotational player for us. His weakness in scouting reports is hand usage, which is a good predictor of a player translating to the NFL. Honestly reminds me of Boogie Basham, a 24 year old prospect who may have already maxed out his abilities and has poor hand usage.

 

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

I don't like his Draft either. I get flack for being a McConkey hater. I'm actually not. I like a lot about him. It's just that he doesn't fit what I view as what we need at WR2 and what Beane will be looking for. And I see us having the opportunity to get a WR who is both higher ranked and is also a better fit for us when we're on the board.

 

As you said, Braden is a true 3T. And while we def need to get someone we can comfortably switch Oliver out for at times that's better than what we had (and in the case of injury), I don't know about using a 2nd for that role. I'd be looking at either a 1T as Jones has had injuries and is less of a sure thing than Oliver or at least a guy who has the versatility and size for either role.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't like his Draft either. I get flack for being a McConkey hater. I'm actually not. I like a lot about him. It's just that he doesn't fit what I view as what we need at WR2 and what Beane will be looking for. And I see us having the opportunity to get a WR who is both higher ranked and is also a better fit for us when we're on the board.

 

You have this strong opinion about MCConkey not being a “fit”…but a guy like Marino says otherwise … can you not at least consider you might be wrong and he might be right ?

 

There are no guarantees Marino is right either mind you,,. He always qualifies his predictions as having no inside information …. But I think he is a respected analyst in regards to the Bills and assessing draft prospects ..

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

41 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

You have this strong opinion about MCConkey not being a “fit”…but a guy like Marino says otherwise … can you not at least consider you might be wrong and he might be right ?

 

There are no guarantees Marino is right either mind you,,. He always qualifies his predictions as having no inside information …. But I think he is a respected analyst in regards to the Bills and assessing draft prospects ..

 

Marino's take is that in signing Noah Brown, we can utilize him on the Outside and use McConkey more all over the place. 

 

While I like Brown and he's on my list of players I hope we sign, I don't want us using him as essentially a Starter on the Outside. I'd have him be more of a rotational role when our Starters need a breather and for depth.

[Aussie Joe]

25 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Marino's take is that in signing Noah Brown, we can utilize him on the Outside and use McConkey more all over the place. 

 

While I like Brown and he's on my list of players I hope we sign, I don't want us using him as essentially a Starter on the Outside. I'd have him be more of a rotational role when our Starters need a breather and for depth.

I listened to this a couple of days ago … but I’m sure he mentioned that McConkey could play the outside, which I believe is your major concern right that he is a slot only? 
 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I listened to this a couple of days ago … but I’m sure he mentioned that McConkey could play the outside, which I believe is your major concern right that he is a slot only? 

 

He's an inside/outside guy. He's better fit for the inside, but you can put him Outside in certain packages. I personally don't think we're looking for a tweener. I think we're looking for a True Outside WR that has the prerequisite measurements and full time experience there.

 

I'm far from the only one who says this. A lot of prognosticators think he's a Pure Slot at the NFL level against longer corners who press. Literally just watched a One Bills Live video a minute ago where he was talked about:

 

 

If Beane ends up deciding on McConkey - I won't hate it. I trust him to make the right decisions. But I'd be more than a little surprised. I'm sorry that it annoys you that I don't think he's a fit for what we need and I'm predicting we'll go with someone else. But that's my opinion.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Paup 1995MVP]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol right I mean he'll be 28 before this seasons over

 

He's just not very good and never has been

He has been decent at times.  Tough player.  Good teammate.  Seems to get nicked up a good bit.  Mediocre hands-can’t seem to catch the low passes very well.  And isn’t winning a lot of jump ball type throws because he isn’t super athletic.  Not a high ceiling player but doesn’t suck.  But certainly seems overpaid for his production. 
 

Kincaid on the other hand can dominate and be a beast every week if he gets a little stronger and we make him a focal point of the offense which I think we will do.  

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

Side note: what's your idea of big swings? Are you talking Free Agency or the Draft?

 

I know your focus is on weapons for Josh. Top tier after Evans, Higgins, and Pittman coming off the market (not including Gabe Davis) are Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Darnell Mooney, and Curtis Samuel. 

 

Is there someone there you have your eye on? My mind is more on the Draft for WR2. If they spent big on say Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown, I worry that he'd look elsewhere in Round 1. 

 

I don't see him spending the kind of money one of them would cost for anything other than WR2, nor do I see either choosing us for anything less than WR2. And I don't see him using a 1st on an off the bench WR. I also don't think Beane is closing the door on Diggs possibly being here next year already - and I think a Ridley or a Brown + a 1st Round Pick would essentially be doing that. Unless we were able to get 1 of the top tier guys on a 1 year deal.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Sweats]

I was onboard with it until i heard Zeke......nay, i say......big time nay.