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2024 WR Draft Class


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 If mock drafts and current adp is to be believed, i still believe Burton is a first round talent that can be had in the 2nd round. He passes the eye test and has the speed, burst, size, body control, hands you are looking for in a top end wr. He played in the SEC and regularly separated from top end dbs but played with a qb that was limited as a passer. If it were not for “character concerns”, Burton goes in the back end of round 1. The Bills will have to figure out if this guy is a head case or if the concerns have been over exaggerated. If they think he can fit in with the locker room, then I would jump at the chance of getting Burton in the second all day long. 
 

Not giving away big time assets to move up in first would allow the Bills to maneuver the board in the second and third and maybe grab a second wr like Polk, Leggett, Persall etc to pair with Burton. There are other positional players like DT Fiske that I would love to see the Bills draft but if they traded up for a wr in the first we are looking at just having day 3 picks left this year. 

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20 minutes ago, racketmaster said:

 If mock drafts and current adp is to be believed, i still believe Burton is a first round talent that can be had in the 2nd round. He passes the eye test and has the speed, burst, size, body control, hands you are looking for in a top end wr. He played in the SEC and regularly separated from top end dbs but played with a qb that was limited as a passer. If it were not for “character concerns”, Burton goes in the back end of round 1. The Bills will have to figure out if this guy is a head case or if the concerns have been over exaggerated. If they think he can fit in with the locker room, then I would jump at the chance of getting Burton in the second all day long. 
 

Not giving away big time assets to move up in first would allow the Bills to maneuver the board in the second and third and maybe grab a second wr like Polk, Leggett, Persall etc to pair with Burton. There are other positional players like DT Fiske that I would love to see the Bills draft but if they traded up for a wr in the first we are looking at just having day 3 picks left this year. 

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

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39 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.

  • Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
  • Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
  • Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
  • Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.

For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.

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3 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

He has some similar production red flags as guys like Mitchell and Coleman while also having the age red flags of Legette (though Pearsall was at least a solid contributor prior to this season). When I broke down Coleman, I mentioned how one of the things I like about Coleman is I feel like he has a couple calling cards where he should have success right away whereas most of this draft class are more in the mold of all-around players that are pretty good in a bunch of areas; Pearsall is one of those.

  • Alignment Versatility: He's lined up, and been successful, all across offensive formations. Probably projects as a flanker/slot hybrid like McConkey, but he had a lot more success against press coverage than McConkey, so there's some X receiver ability in there as well.
  • Skillset Versatility: In terms of Matt Harmon's success rates vs. coverage types, Pearsall ranks in the 87th percentile against man coverage and the 69th percentile against zone. That man coverage success rate is slightly behind Rome Odunze for #1 in the class. The zone success rate is 1% behind Odunze for #1 in the class (but McConkey and MHJ are both in between them).
  • Hands + Separation: He has arguably the best hands in the class and is one of the best separators in the class.
  • Acing the Draft Process: Lastly, he's killed it in the lead up to the draft, and there's always a few guys like that that rise up draft boards as a result. He was one of the standouts at the Senior Bowl and was arguably the most surprisingly great Combine performer (though I'd personally go with AD Mitchell there). While his film is littered with examples of him getting in and out of breaks without having to slow down and also examples of him elevating to grab passes that a lot of other receivers could not reach, people questioned his athleticism some, and then he tested as one of the best athletes in the class.

For me personally, he ended up as my #10 WR in the class. I'd take him in the 2nd round but he's not a real consideration at #28 for me.


Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage

IMG_5598.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

Some of it can pretty innocently be explained away: He blew up early in his high school career and decided to capitalize on that by transferring to one of the powerhouse prep schools (IMG Academy). Got homesick and decided to go back to Atlanta but I believe Georgia has rules against people transferring from out-of-state, so despite growing up in Atlanta, he was ruled ineligible and had to move elsewhere again to continue playing football, so he ended up in California. Some of it, not so easy to explain away; it sounds like none of the coaching staffs that he played for in college liked him. Also not included in the 6 schools in 8 years thing is that he originally committed to Miami, changed his commitment to LSU, and then flipped one more time on Signing Day to Georgia. So he never technically went to Miami or LSU, but he's really had a hard time making a decision and sticking with it.

6 minutes ago, LEBills said:


Wondering if you are seeing data I haven’t found yet on this part? For both Pearsall and McConkey, what I have found is they didn’t face press man very much and both were not good at it in the small sample. I didn’t really see anyone get up on Pearsall in the games I watched due a lot to him being off the line and/or the D playing off coverage

IMG_5598.jpeg

In Matt Harmon's scouting, he has Pearsall's success rate against press coverage at 67.7% (51st percentile) vs. McConkey at 44.4% (8th percentile).

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20 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I watched a podcast on the WRs in the draft, and the folks doing the analysis mentioned that Burton has been to six or eight schools going back to his high school days, so he has never stayed put for any extended period of time. They did not know what it meant, but you'd have to do your due diligence on the fella. The red flags for character may be more than slapping a Tennessee fan on the field.

I agree that the Bills would have to do their homework on Burton to figure out whether he would be a character fit. From what I understand he only attended 2 colleges (Georgia and Alabama) but in high school I think he changed his mind on his commitment several times. And yes there is the fan issue and some of the on the field antics. Bills will have all background info on him and talk to coaches, trainers etc so I don’t want to speculate much but his on field talent is worth a deep dive. Maybe it is that he just has that edge and ultra competitive personality where he just needs to control it more. At least it does not appear like much in the way of criminal background so it just might be a situation where he needs to mature a bit and learn to control his emotions on the field a bit. 

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Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

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7 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

 

Yea it does for me. I mean I have them right together on my board Mitchell is only just ahead and it comes down to the ease with which you can project each to be a #1 in the NFL. That's an easier projection for Mitchell than it is for Worthy because of the size. 

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8 hours ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

Matt Harmon's ranking of Franklin outside the top let's me know to never follow his scouting of receivers.  

I’m not excited about Franklin in round 1, but he certainly makes sense in round 2.

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21 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.

 

Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.

 

Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

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2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

I don’t think he’s scouted Franklin yet. The 10 I listed are the only 10 he’s published so far. 

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

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30 minutes ago, section122 said:

Can I get some idea why AD Mitchell is ranked higher that Xavier Worthy?

 

Worthy has the production and speed.  Mitchell has the size and very good speed as well.  Does it really just come down to height and weight?


I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.

 

Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.

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29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea it does for me. I mean I have them right together on my board Mitchell is only just ahead and it comes down to the ease with which you can project each to be a #1 in the NFL. That's an easier projection for Mitchell than it is for Worthy because of the size. 

 

17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

I think the size, athleticism, and skills give AD a chance to be an elite WR if you get him to buy in. I very much question his effort (not to mention production red flags), and as a result, bump him down to the 2nd round. But he has all the physical traits we're theoretically looking for to fill the X WR spot.

 

Worthy has the same effort questions but far worse physical limitations, so lower ceiling and same low chance of reaching his ceiling IMO. Not to mention I don't see him as an X, which is the more pressing issue for us. His production profile is definitely a lot more impressive though.

 

Ultimately, with where I have both of them graded, I know they'll be gone before I'd personally be willing to take either.

 

I appreciate the answer and it makes sense to me.  Where I struggle is them being teammates and Worthy outshining Mitchell.  To me that says Texas thought Worthy was the better player.  I know the draft and nfl are different animals where projection of where they will be matters much more than who they have been but I just feel Worthy is a better player even if he doesn't look the part.

 

Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays?  I think Mitchell's quote about not going all out each play was taken out of context and misunderstood but if lack of effort shows up on tape, there isn't really any denying it.  I heard an interesting thing on Sirius that I hadn't thought of this morning, the NIL deals are showing teams who will continue to put in the work after getting life changing money.  No longer is the NFL there first taste of being set financially so teams can look at who still works hard and on their craft. 

 

Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college.  @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?

 

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

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7 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

 

 

Apparently he's hard to place. IIRC, he says Franklin could go anywhere from 1st to 3rd round.

 

For me, the knocks on Franklin matter less considering his role: If the issue is that he's slight and less physical, that's ok because I'm imagining him immediately opening things up just running deep routes because you have Samuel, Kincaid and Cook for underneath.

 

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.

 

Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

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Just now, DCOrange said:

We'll see where Harmon ultimately lands on him, but I'll be pretty surprised if he's outside his top 10. It seemed that the OP was saying we shouldn't trust Harmon because he's outside of his top 10 when we don't actually know where he is since he hasn't finished scouting him yet.

 

Personally, I think if you're just looking for someone to be a deep threat and open things up underneath, there's probably a lot of better options than Franklin. The allure with Franklin is that he isn't just a deep threat; most of his targets came closer to the LOS and he was generally very productive on those while still offering some deep ball upside. If you think his physical issues will prevent that part of his game from translating to the pros, I wouldn't bother taking him where he's likely to be drafted. I like him; he's on the late 1st/early 2nd fringe for me.

 

The stat of a 30 yard catch in 13 of 14 games is mind boggling to me.  Teams had to be game planning to stop that and still couldn't.  Add in how much analytics love him and he is another guy I think I am higher on than the consensus.

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2 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Can someone tell me how Pearsall has suddenly shot up draft boards? He hasn't had the production of many of the others, doesn't have elite size and I was seeing him as back of 2nd -3rd round by most sites. 

 

Personally i would stay very far away. Another slot receiver? No thank you.

 

Most seem to project him as a slot WR in the NFL,  and if that's the case,  he doesn't really fit the Bills' needs. 

 

But I can see the case for a higher ranking.  He's 6'1,  played at an elite SEC school,  led them in recieving yards the last two years.  Has good hands and runs good routes.  The draft sites had him as a 2nd or 3rd based on that. Then,  supposedly,  he had a really good week at the Senior Bowl.  And then he posts the best set of agility scores at the combine along with a strong 40.   So who knows where he actually goes,  but in comparison to the initial grades of the draft sites,  I can see where they might have him undervalued and a guy who was a borderline R2 before might actually go a round higher. 

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5 minutes ago, LEBills said:


I do have Mitchell a little higher because I think his floor is a good possession receiver as he is a good route runner. If he can tap into his athleticism his ceiling is pretty high though watching him run after the catch is painful and something I think is instinctual and may be hard for him to improve.

 

Worthy is pretty inconsistent with his hands and routes but his highs are very high. Though I like him overall, I think he has a higher chance of being a straight bust.

 

To your bolded, that is actually why I am so high on Worthy.  You can see that he understands how to set up defenders to miss in the open field.  Since he has that tool already, that should really help his route running improve and make him a success in the league.  Strangely though there are several instances of him getting caught from behind that surprised me.

 

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1 minute ago, section122 said:

Since both of them have the effort question, is it fair to say that maybe they were coached to take it easy on certain plays?

I don't really buy it personally, particularly with Mitchell because the same effort issues showed up at Georgia. Hard to say for sure with Worthy since he didn't switch schools/staffs.

 

1 minute ago, section122 said:

Worthy outperformed Mitchell's best year in all 3 years of college.  @DCOrange are there any concerns with Mitchell's late breakout or does his age negate that?

Yes. If I went just off of the metrics that I like to look at, Mitchell would literally be near the bottom of the draft class and one of the lowest rated I've had in the last few years (out of almost 130 WRs). Worthy is near the tail end of the top 1/3 of that group, pretty good but not great.

 

1 minute ago, section122 said:

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

I wouldn't take Mitchell at 28 personally. I could maybe get on board with trading up in the 2nd round for him, but in all likelihood, there will be WRs available at #60 that I will have a higher/equal grade on than Mitchell.

 

I'm not sure there's realistically a WR I would opt for at #28 (assuming Brian Thomas doesn't slide that far). After the big 3 + Thomas, I have late 1st or early 2nd round grades on the following: Coleman, Franklin, Jacob Cowing, McConkey, Javon Baker, and Pearsall. Considering they're all early 2nd round or better, I wouldn't really be mad if Buffalo took one of them at 28 but my guess is there will be better value available at other positions there. Cowing is basically a guarantee to be available at #60 as I don't think anyone is really as high on him as I am (he's also almost certainly slot-exclusive which probably means he isn't a fit for us) and Baker seems extremely likely to be available at #60/could be a trade up into the 3rd round candidate.

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19 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Are both of you good with Mitchell at 28?  Or is there someone else you would prefer?  I think @GunnerBill you would go Legette?

 

I would. I'd go Legette, but would not freak out over Mitchell or Worthy. I think Ladd, Franklin, Coleman would all leave me feeling slightly cold but then you have to look in the context of the board at the time etc. 

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I know we all assume the Bills are looking for a boundary receiver with their top pick after losing Diggs and Davis...but I'm not entirely sure that has to be the case.

 

The Bills DO have two TEs that get should get a lot of snaps together, and one of the best things about rolling a 2 TE set is that none of your other skill players need to be on the ball in most alignments. Suddenly, multiple flanker/slot/pass-catching RBs is more viable. And then you carry 1 or 2 bigger receivers (Hollins and Shorter?) if  one of the TE comes off the field or gets injured...but that guy isn't gonna get a ton of snaps in a perfect world.

 

That's not to say a big body receiver wouldn't be nice, especially if they are still equally dangerous off the ball, but I don't think it's as important as grabbing a guy that is maybe a bit more limited overall but much better at what he does well.

 

In other words...if you think of Knox as the starting TE and Kincaid as the starting X/split end...it's not as dire. Hollins becomes a backup, and you're looking for a guy that could either push Knox to the bench OR a guy that could push Shakir/Samuel to the bench.

Edited by Mikey152
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If one wanted to play the game of putting the puzzle pieces together to make a guess at who the Bills might be targeting at WR you could look at what pro day Beane decided to attend on 3/20 this year. Texas, (Worthy and Mitchell) Ohio State (Harrison Jr), USC (Rice) and Alabama (Burton) had pro day on same day this year and Beane elected to attend Alabama pro day. There are a bunch of CBs, LBs, Edge and OT for Alabama that should be first or day two picks. But are we really going to draft a CB or an OT in round 1 where those players could be slotted to go? WR is obvious priority and it would have been easy for Beane just to attend Texas as there are 2 WRs to see and less obvious to figure out which one he prefers. However, he chose not to go to Texas which might point to Bills not targeting either Worthy or Mitchell. It might be nothing but it could be something of a clue as Beane has stated that he likes to see players in person to size them up and see how they interact with coaches and teammates. It is possible that Alabama just had more talent overall to see but I would think Beane would want to be at the Texas pro day if he was targeting Worthy/Mitchell because it would have to be in round 1 or at the top of round 2 and that is a premium asset. 

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11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

I like that kid a lot.  Coached in a pro offense, able to to run the full route tree and speed for days.

 

The last guy we had a zoom interview with?  Kinciad.  So... Wilson at 28?  Or a trade down and wilson?

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Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

I like that kid a lot.  Coached in a pro offense, able to to run the full route tree and speed for days.

 

The last guy we had a zoom interview with?  Kinciad.  So... Wilson at 28?  Or a trade down and wilson?

 

WR ____ in the 1st   & Wilson in the 2nd  would be fine 

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30 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

I like him and I think he has some of the skills and the intangibles that Beane will like. Feels like an exclusive slot guy though which between Shakir, Samuel, and the big slot/TEs, I feel like there isn't much opportunity there.

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On 4/12/2024 at 1:33 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:


yes because wanting to get an elite WR for your amazing QB is so horrid to imagine!!!

 

Nothing at all dictates that we keep the 2nd we got from Diggs trade. Beane is very likely to use that pick in a package to move up in Round 1 or 2 IMO.

Elite WR are great.  They win a lot of games in september and october.  

 

They have very little to do with winning championships.  Giving away an entire drafts worth of important picks is total insanity.

 

I 110% believe this team can win with 1 or 2 more good players at wr.  They clearly need an X wr to play outside and someone who can  make contested catches on the sideline would be great.  Not important enough to burn two drafts on however.

 

The same people dying to give away this year and next years draft for one of these top 10 wr will be the same ones complaining about the defense and depth of the overall team by the middle of the season.

 

Just let the draft come to you and take BPA.  There are plenty of wr in this draft.

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34 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I like that kid a lot.  Coached in a pro offense, able to to run the full route tree and speed for days.

 

The last guy we had a zoom interview with?  Kinciad.  So... Wilson at 28?  Or a trade down and wilson?

Wilson screams Buffalo Bill to me, but I would say definitely a 2nd rounder to 3rd rounder. 

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37 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I like that kid a lot.  Coached in a pro offense, able to to run the full route tree and speed for days.

 

The last guy we had a zoom interview with?  Kinciad.  So... Wilson at 28?  Or a trade down and wilson?

 

I don't think he runs routes well at all. 

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8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think he runs routes well at all. 

He showed at the Senior Bowl that he has the movement skills to run good routes IMO but in actual games it felt like by far his biggest strength was more just utilizing his speed on crossers, posts, etc.

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17 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 


MHJ  and Wood says  "Yea he's a stud" 


I certainly would be thrilled with MHJ, but...

To me, Nabers is the dream get for Buffalo. His explosiveness, positional diversity, and run-after-catch are all elite. He fits what Beane recently described wanting in a WR to a "T".

Both guys are gonna be great pros, but for my money, Nabers is HIM.

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9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think he runs routes well at all. 


Another player I'd be good with us drafting then 😜

Just now, Logic said:


I certainly would be thrilled with MHJ, but...

To me, Nabers is the dream get for Buffalo. His explosiveness, positional diversity, and run-after-catch are all elite. He fits what Beane recently described wanting in a WR to a "T".

Both guys are gonna be great pros, but for my money, Nabers is HIM.

 

 

I agree, Nabers is awesome and his explosiveness is unreal.  I do have a slight concern with how he will pan out. 
 

Was caught carrying a gun last year without a permit. Charges were dropped on condition the police kept the gun.   


IMO, MHJ is a very high probability to be a perennial All-Pro with his talent, work ethic and attitude 

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5 hours ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

And just...we have Khalil Shakir. We have a proven commodity, in the building, to fill the role Pearsall would provide. 

 

If we are to take a flier on a guy in late second I'd rather they take a gamble on Polk because at the very least he fills a different role.

And if the Bills are passing on a WR at 28 or moving back I would absolutely look for Franklin, Mitchell, Worthy, McConkey, or Legette before Pearsall, easily.

This is the scenario that I was thinking of upstream when I talked about being open to after round 1.  There is no question in my mind that there are at least a dozen receivers who could help the Bills given the state of the receiver group.  They need someone to play the boundary for sure as all they currently have is a complete unknown in Justin Shorter, but they als need someone who gets open consistently since they lost that guy (Diggs).  They don’t have to solve both needs with one pick.

 

However, if you dismiss the mostly slot guys McConkey, Wilson, Pearsall, Corley, the receiver depth is shallower than the hype.

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