2024 WR Draft Class

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

WR’s we met with:

 

Troy Franklin, Oregon 

Keon Coleman, FSU 

Tez Walker, UNC 

Xavier Worthy, Texas 

Brian Thomas Jr., LSU 

Jalen McMillan, Washington 

Adonai Mitchell, Texas 

Xavier Legette, South Carolina 

Roman Wilson, Michigan 

Johnny Wilson, FSU

 

 

The Legette dream is still alive 🙏🏻

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

People talk about this class like it has unprecedented depth at the WR position. But 2020 was just as deep, and not all of those guys hit.

 

First Round

• 12- Henry Ruggs (No idea)
• 15- Jerry Jeudy (Disappointment)
• 17- CD Lamb (Hit)
• 21- Jalen Reagor (Bust)
• 22- Justin Jefferson (Superstar)
• 25- Brandon Aiyuk (Hit)

Second Round

• 33- Tee Higgins (Hit)
• 34- Michael Pittman (Hit)
• 42- Laviska Shenault (bust)
• 46- KJ Hamler (Bust due to injuries)
• 49- Chase Claypool (Bust-ish)
• 57- Van Jefferson (??)
• 59- Denzel Mimms (Bust)

Late-round steals included Devin Duvernay (3rd), Gabe Davis (4th), Darnell Mooney (5th), KJ Osborne (5th), and guys like Quez Watkins, Peoples-Jones, and Hodgins in the late rounds that are not great but are playing on NFL rosters. 

 

What I mean in all of this is that one or more of these guys that you are all drooling over is going to be the Reagor/Shenault of this draft. I would place good money on it being someone who vaults up draft boards to his performance against air yesterday. 

 

 

Well, if you followed the draft you'd know that there are never 6-10 hits in a row at ANY position.    Not even close.  There are just SO MANY different things that can go wrong with any prospect.   In the last 8 drafts the Bills have gotten very disappointing returns from 1st rounders like Shaq Lawson and Kaiir Elam.   Big fails on day 1 or day 2 happen regardless of position.

 

Edit:  And I'll add.......the guys who gained the most from the workouts at WR yesterday were guys like McConkey and Pearsall.........who had great tape but people questioned their athleticism.    It wasn't one of those situations where a bunch of guys with nothing good on tape ran in the 4.3's or jumped 11' or 42".   This class has been pretty fleshed out for some time.   Some of them will inevitably bust or underwhelm due to unforeseen injuries but there is no doubt it's an extraordinary class talent-wise.

Edited March 3 by BADOLBILZ

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

WR’s we met with:

 

Troy Franklin, Oregon 

Keon Coleman, FSU 

Tez Walker, UNC 

Xavier Worthy, Texas 

Brian Thomas Jr., LSU 

Jalen McMillan, Washington 

Adonai Mitchell, Texas 

Xavier Legette, South Carolina 

Roman Wilson, Michigan 

Johnny Wilson, FSU

 

 

I can't recall the last time we Drafted someone in the 1st and didn't meet with them at the Combine.

 

Notice Ladd McConkey is not on the list?

[GunnerBill]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I can't recall the last time we Drafted someone in the 1st and didn't meet with them at the Combine.

 

Notice Ladd McConkey is not on the list?

 

Yep. The Bills don't draft kids they haven't met. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. The Bills don't draft kids they haven't met. 

They met him at the Sr. Bowl.

[Warcodered]

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

They met him at the Sr. Bowl.

 

In which case he is still in play.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Well, if you followed the draft you'd know that there are never 6-10 hits in a row at ANY position.    Not even close.  There are just SO MANY different things that can go wrong with any prospect.   In the last 8 drafts the Bills have gotten very disappointing returns from 1st rounders like Shaq Lawson and Kaiir Elam.   Big fails on day 1 or day 2 happen regardless of position.

That's my point. There are always busts and guys that slip through the cracks but people on here are talking as if all of these guys this year will be great. To take the Bills out of this discussion, Jalen Reagor being taken right before Justin Jefferson was a case of a GM getting too cute in trusting metrics instead of their own two eyes. And people still think that Howie Roseman is a genius. There are countless examples of this. Look at all the WRs taken before Cupp, all because he had a bad combine running against air when the college tape told you that he would be really good.  

 

The Ravens took Rashad Batemen in the first round in 2021. He's never had more than 600 yards in a season. In that same draft, the Lions took Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 4th. There are no sure things. 

[BillsFanForever19]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

In which case he is still in play.

 

My point is if you go through the list of Bills 1sts under this regime - we've always met with them at the Combine.

 

Even if we met them at the Senior Bowl, like Josh - we still had a Combine interview.

 

There's always shots of the Combine interview for that Post-Draft Bills pick video.

[Dr. Who]

2 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

That's my point. There are always busts and guys that slip through the cracks but people on here are talking as if all of these guys this year will be great. To take the Bills out of this discussion, Jalen Reagor being taken right before Justin Jefferson was a case of a GM getting too cute in trusting metrics instead of their own two eyes. And people still think that Howie Roseman is a genius. There are countless examples of this. Look at all the WRs taken before Cupp, all because he had a bad combine running against air when the college tape told you that he would be really good.  

 

The Ravens took Rashad Batemen in the first round in 2021. He's never had more than 600 yards in a season. In that same draft, the Lions took Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 4th. There are no sure things. 

That's a gross exaggeration. Who doesn't know that guys bust and others slip through the cracks? What does that have to do with an evaluation of the quality of a draft class at a position? There are more high pay-off scratch offs at WR in this draft. Of course, it might not work out, but that's not a reason to ignore the specific strength of this draft. It just happens to match one of the Bills' significant needs, and one that they have generally ignored with premium picks in the past.

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

My point is if you go through the list of Bills 1sts under this regime - we've always met with them at the Combine.

 

Even if we met them at the Senior Bowl, like Josh - we still had a Combine interview.

 

There's always shots of the Combine interview for that Post-Draft Bills pick video.

Those Combine interviews have to be mentioned by the player or leaked by an agent. We might have met with him and it hasn't leaked. 

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

My point is if you go through the list of Bills 1sts under this regime - we've always met with them at the Combine.

 

Even if we met them at the Senior Bowl, like Josh - we still had a Combine interview.

 

There's always shots of the Combine interview for that Post-Draft Bills pick video.

They also might not  want to telegraph interest in him either by meeting with him again so close after the first time  .whats he going to tell them this time that he didn’t a month ago?
 

 I doubt they care that much about the video … they will just be trying to get their guy ..

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

They also might not  want to telegraph interest in him either by meeting with him again so close after the first time  .whats he going to tell them this time that he didn’t a month ago?
 

 I doubt they care that much about the video … they will just be trying to get their guy ..

I agree with this, but I really hope the plan is to double down and get two of these guys. One in the first, another day 2 or early day 3.

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

I must have a different Idea of what breakout is vs the actually metric.  Cambell is a 18.1 but only caught 10 passes as a freshman.  He didnt produce until his senior year.  

Doesn’t breakout age sometimes have a lot to do with who is in front of a player at their college?  Imagine trying to get on the field and make an impact as a receiver at Ohio State, Georgia, LSU last season, Texas…

 

Some of those teams had better receiving groups than NFL teams.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

I agree with this, but I really hope the plan is to double down and get two of these guys. One in the first, another day 2 or early day 3.

They might also get a FA with some upside …. There is another 8 weeks to see how this plays out … still a few more more twists and turns no doubt 

[SoonerBillsFan]

29 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In which case he is still in play.

Beane said a couple of times this offseason they have learned from their mistakes. Maybe, and I am just guessing here, they will not do as many interviews on players they like to throw teams off. Fans are even saying, they don't draft anyone they don't meet at the combine.  I would personally like for this to be the first of many times they break that trend.

[BADOLBILZ]

21 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

That's my point. There are always busts and guys that slip through the cracks but people on here are talking as if all of these guys this year will be great. To take the Bills out of this discussion, Jalen Reagor being taken right before Justin Jefferson was a case of a GM getting too cute in trusting metrics instead of their own two eyes. And people still think that Howie Roseman is a genius. There are countless examples of this. Look at all the WRs taken before Cupp, all because he had a bad combine running against air when the college tape told you that he would be really good.  

 

The Ravens took Rashad Batemen in the first round in 2021. He's never had more than 600 yards in a season. In that same draft, the Lions took Amon-Ra St. Brown in the 4th. There are no sure things. 

 

 

Actually, the Rams used a speed analytic.......his ability to maintain top speed thru changes of direction......as justification for drafting Kupp fairly early despite concerns that he'd be the more-easy-to-find slot type of receiver.   Which is what he is and he's great at it.   But that metric actually likely got him drafted earlier.   

 

The flip side to a player like Reagor busting in the 20's is a player like Jefferson becoming an MVP level offensive player in the 20's.   NOBODY saw THAT coming.   He looked very good.......but the clear #1 WR in the NFL?   No.   I think most of us would be satisfied with the Bills WR pick at 28 becoming a 1,000 yard receiver.........but while that player could bust he could also become amazing.

[Mat68]

14 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Doesn’t breakout age sometimes have a lot to do with who is in front of a player at their college?  Imagine trying to get on the field and make an impact as a receiver at Ohio State, Georgia, LSU last season, Texas…

 

Some of those teams had better receiving groups than NFL teams.

I guess.  Or maybe he had a big game early in the season and was redshirted??  Early success and production added with elite testing imo translates.  

30 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

That's a gross exaggeration. Who doesn't know that guys bust and others slip through the cracks? What does that have to do with an evaluation of the quality of a draft class at a position? There are more high pay-off scratch offs at WR in this draft. Of course, it might not work out, but that's not a reason to ignore the specific strength of this draft. It just happens to match one of the Bills' significant needs, and one that they have generally ignored with premium picks in the past.

Reagor was a reach draft night.  Everyone thought they were going Jefferson.  I remember Bleacher Report trashing it.  

[BillsFanForever19]

14 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

They met him at the Sr. Bowl.

 

There's a major difference between meeting a non-QB at the Senior Bowl and meeting with them at the Combine. Meeting a player at the Senior Bowl is very informal and you can't really get much done.

 

They don't want them to be too distracted from Practices and the Game and make sure they get enough rest. As interviews are done at the Combine.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/senior-bowl-interview-process-changes-nfl-draft-teams-players

 

13 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Beane said a couple of times this offseason they have learned from their mistakes. Maybe, and I am just guessing here, they will not do as many interviews on players they like to throw teams off. Fans are even saying, they don't draft anyone they don't meet at the combine.  I would personally like for this to be the first of many times they break that trend.

 

So Ladd McConkey is so special that we're specifically not getting a feel for him with coaches and GM, breaking him down with film, bypassing the formal job interview, and "tipping our hand" with literally every other prospect who's a fit for us?

Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19

[mrags]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I can't recall the last time we Drafted someone in the 1st and didn't meet with them at the Combine.

 

Notice Ladd McConkey is not on the list?

Thank god 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There's a major difference between meeting a non-QB at the Senior Bowl and meeting with them at the Combine. Meeting a player at the Senior Bowl is very informal and you can't really get much done.

 

Anyone who isn't a QB can't be sat down for an in depth interview. Special Teams players can have a 30 minute zoom call with Special Teams coaches.

 

But that's it. They don't want them to be too distracted from Practices and the Game and make sure they get enough rest. As interviews are done at the Combine.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/senior-bowl-interview-process-changes-nfl-draft-teams-players

 

 

So Ladd McConkey is so special that we're specifically not getting a feel for him with coaches and GM, breaking him down with film, bypassing the formal job interview, and "tipping our hand" with literally every other prospect who's a fit for us?

There are still the 1 on 1's available where he can be brought in.  

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Thank god 

Based on what? 

[DCOrange]

5 hours ago, DCOrange said:

In light of the NFL Combine performances and some prospects that I've revisited, I've updated my film, metrics, and combined WR rankings. I've also thrown in my personal rankings, which isn't necessarily married entirely to the film or the metrics but sort of a bit of A and a bit of B. For example, I think the metrics are too harsh on Mitchell, but I think the metrics is keeping McConkey above Pearsall for now. As mentioned before, some guys like Jermaine Burton and Javon Baker for example are excluded; I haven't found any All 22 film of Baker and I haven't had a chance to look at Burton.

 

I decided to apply the metrics system that I created this year to the 2023 draft class, mainly just to expand the sample size a bit to see if the results looked out of whack or not. The top ranked guys based on the metrics that I'm looking at:

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (had to flip the formula to prioritize 2021 instead of 2022 for him since he played so little in 2022)
2. Puka Nacua
3. Josh Downs
4. Tank Dell
5. Demario Douglas
6. Quentin Johnston
7. Xavier Gipson
8. Jordan Addison
9. Rashee Rice
10. Jalin Hyatt

Notable guys outside the top 10:

• Zay Flowers was #24 out of 43
• Jayden Reed was #30
• Michael Wilson was #28
• Jonathan Mingo was #32
• Dontayvion Wicks was #35
• Justin Shorter was #41

Edited March 3 by DCOrange

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There are still the 1 on 1's available where he can be brought in.  

Based on what? 

Apparently you didn’t get the joke. I’m out 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

There are still the 1 on 1's available where he can be brought in.  

Based on what? 

 

That's true.

 

But that doesn't change the fact that we've never bypassed the formal job interview at the Combine and then Drafted the guy in Round 1. That's just a fact. 

 

The Combine interview is extremely important. And it's telling that we interviewed so many WR's and he's not one of them. Especially since I already believed he wasn't the fit for us that everyone wants him to be.

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Beane said a couple of times this offseason they have learned from their mistakes. Maybe, and I am just guessing here, they will not do as many interviews on players they like to throw teams off. Fans are even saying, they don't draft anyone they don't meet at the combine.  I would personally like for this to be the first of many times they break that trend.

 

Nah I doubt they change that. They are big on character and culture. They are going to draft guys they meet. Take that to the bank.

[Dr. Who]

32 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

I guess.  Or maybe he had a big game early in the season and was redshirted??  Early success and production added with elite testing imo translates.  

Reagor was a reach draft night.  Everyone thought they were going Jefferson.  I remember Bleacher Report trashing it.  

I'm not disputing that even the best GMs make mistakes, nor am I claiming Reagor was not a reach.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah I doubt they change that. They are big on character and culture. They are going to draft guys they meet. Take that to the bank.

Who is bigger on character and culture than a player who comes from Kirby Smarts system ?

 

Mitchell is included in that culture 

[Aussie Joe]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah I doubt they change that. They are big on character and culture. They are going to draft guys they meet. Take that to the bank.

I really think McConkey has the attitude and exudes the “culture” that would get McDermott barred up in a New York minute ..

[BillsFanForever19]

5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I really think McConkey has the attitude and exudes the “culture” that would get McDermott barred up in a New York minute ..

 

What has you thinking McConkey "exudes" the culture more so than others?

 

Regardless of that opinion, they didn't give him the opportunity to make McDermott "barred up" at the Combine.

[Aussie Joe]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

 

Regardless of that opinion, they didn't give him the opportunity to make McDermott "barred up" at the Combine.

So that means he is off their board?

[BillsFanForever19]

44 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

So that means he is off their board?

 

I'm sure every player in the Draft, unless they have a medical or conduct red flag, is on their board.

 

But when it comes to players they're specifically targeting in Round 1, they ALWAYS have the formal job interview, if you will, at the Combine.

 

They do evaluation leading up to the Combine. They examine their tape and hypothesize who's a fit for them for what they're looking for in the position they're in and the scheme of the team. Then they set up interviews with those players.

 

The interview process then helps them hone in on those from that list that really blow them away and those that don't. They raise the ones that did impress them (especially if they bring a notebook, whoo boy!) and drop the ones that didn't.

 

They then bring the guys that passed both phases for them and see how they act in their building. They'll check to see how they've been operating since they last talked, maybe follow up on some things they didn't ask at the Combine, or things they hadn't thought about until after they met at the Combine. They'll check in on everyone from the Driver who picked them up at the airport to the lunch lady who fed them to see how they carried themselves when they weren't around.

 

This is the process. Again, we've never taken a guy in Round 1 where we've skipped the Combine interview. This is probably the most important part of this regimes evaluation. It's always there and it's the interview and the visit, not one or the other.

 

When it comes to McConkey, he wasn't a great fit for what we're looking for to begin with. Combine that with no interview and the fact that we're almost assuredly going to have a chance at someone who is ranked higher than he is (that we DID interview) and right now I just don't see a scenario where he's in play in Round 1.

Edited March 3 by BillsFanForever19

[KOKBILLS]

6 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Speed isnt everything. Where is John Ross now?

 

 

 

Based on his NFL career... Probably in re-hab...

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Apparently you didn’t get the joke. I’m out 

Yep,missed it 😁

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

There's a major difference between meeting a non-QB at the Senior Bowl and meeting with them at the Combine. Meeting a player at the Senior Bowl is very informal and you can't really get much done.

 

Anyone who isn't a QB can't be sat down for an in depth interview. Special Teams players can have a 30 minute zoom call with Special Teams coaches.

 

But that's it. They don't want them to be too distracted from Practices and the Game and make sure they get enough rest. As interviews are done at the Combine.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/news/senior-bowl-interview-process-changes-nfl-draft-teams-players

 

 

So Ladd McConkey is so special that we're specifically not getting a feel for him with coaches and GM, breaking him down with film, bypassing the formal job interview, and "tipping our hand" with literally every other prospect who's a fit for us?

They might not have liked him enough to meet again or maybe they will have him in for a visit before the draft.  

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

They might not have liked him enough to meet again or maybe they will have him in for a visit before the draft.  

 

I'll direct you to my reply to another poster 3 posts above yours. We never skip the Combine interview and Draft a guy in Round 1 simply on the pre-Draft meeting. The pre-Draft meeting is more of a formality and final piece of the puzzle after a good interview.

Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

It's sad that it's not a possibility. Flip side, i'd rather have a team in contention rather than picking at the top of the Draft all the time again.

 

 

Edited March 4 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I really think McConkey has the attitude and exudes the “culture” that would get McDermott barred up in a New York minute ..

 

I wasn't saying he didn't. I was simply saying the Bills will draft a guy they have met in round 1. It is just how they operate. 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wasn't saying he didn't. I was simply saying the Bills will draft a guy they have met in round 1. It is just how they operate. 

 

And I'd still like to know what about him makes him "exude" the "culture" moreso than others....

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'm sure every player in the Draft, unless they have a medical or conduct red flag, is on their board.

 

 

That is 100% not true I can tell you that for a fact. Most teams work on a board of around 150-160 max. The Patriots famously under Belichick had less than 100 guys on its draft board most years. 

 

The reasons a player will generally be off a board:

 

1. Medicals

2. Conduct

3. Personality (distinct from conduct as in there are no specific incidents but the vibe they get from work area scouts do is the individual just isn't a fit)

4. Scheme

5. Failure to meet physical specifications for the position (every team has them, some are more slavish about them than others)

6. They don't give them a draftable grade

 

My suspicion since Beane arrived here has always been he operates towards the smaller end board wise. I'd say somewhere in the 120 range. I have second hand confirmation from someone who was in the building that it isn't far off (though the number fluctuates a bit year to year and class to class). 

 

Remember last year when after taking Shorter in round 5 Beane started trading back multiple times? I strongly suspect his board was empty. Broeker and Austin were very likely prioritiy UDFAs for them rather than draft board guys. They'd just ran out of the latter.

[DCOrange]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I'll direct you to my reply to another poster 3 posts above yours. We never skip the Combine interview and Draft a guy in Round 1 simply on the pre-Draft meeting. The pre-Draft meeting is more of a formality and final piece of the puzzle after a good interview.

Do you have a link to a report that we met with Kincaid or Elam at the Combine? I've checked a bunch of lists of prospects we interviewed, brought in for visits, etc. and searched on Twitter around this time in those years too and didn't find any reports.