FireChans Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 While everyone is talking about Mahomes vs Allen and the shootout potential of this game based on previous matchups, I went back and crunched the numbers. The 2023 Bills are 11-2 when they reach double digit points before their opponent. With their two losses being the Jets meltdown which they should have won, and their Eagles shootout that was a play or two away from being a W. Conversely, the Bills are 1-4 when the opposing team gets to double digits before they do, the one win being the second Dolphins game that was marred by self-inflicted wounds in the first half. The 2023 Chiefs are 8-2 in games where they reach double digit points before their opponent. They are 3-4 in games they do not (not including the Chargers-Chiefs backup fest.) So what does this tell us? Shootout or not, neither team has been great as the “answerer” to the fast start by an opponent. I want the offense to get points every possession, obviously. But that’s not realistic. What’s realistic is come out swinging, get a fast lead, and then hold on. That’s when the Bills especially are at their best. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 Just now, RoyBatty is alive said: You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? Yep. This ain’t the same old Chiefs. Historically, Mahomes had a pretty good winning record when down double digits. That’s no longer the case. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBrownBear Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said: You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? There's no denying it. The stats don't lie. It's better to be winning during the game than losing. 1 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said: There's no denying it. The stats don't lie. It's better to be winning during the game than losing. Yep. And if it's 1st and goal from the 1, you don't punt. You take the points. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbRiddick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I think the key to victory is winning 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 If she is in her mid 30's, no kids and never married but wants it....don't use her condoms. 2 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I get that you are saying having the lead first helps. But what about having the lead last? How do the numbers play out on that? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: I get that you are saying having the lead first helps. But what about having the lead last? How do the numbers play out on that? We call that batting a thousand in these parts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kincaid Kool-Aid Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stads Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 21 minutes ago, RobbRiddick said: I think the key to victory is winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, FireChans said: While everyone is talking about Mahomes vs Allen and the shootout potential of this game based on previous matchups, I went back and crunched the numbers. The 2023 Bills are 11-2 when they reach double digit points before their opponent. With their two losses being the Jets meltdown which they should have won, and their Eagles shootout that was a play or two away from being a W. Conversely, the Bills are 1-4 when the opposing team gets to double digits before they do, the one win being the second Dolphins game that was marred by self-inflicted wounds in the first half. The 2023 Chiefs are 8-2 in games where they reach double digit points before their opponent. They are 3-4 in games they do not (not including the Chargers-Chiefs backup fest.) So what does this tell us? Shootout or not, neither team has been great as the “answerer” to the fast start by an opponent. I want the offense to get points every possession, obviously. But that’s not realistic. What’s realistic is come out swinging, get a fast lead, and then hold on. That’s when the Bills especially are at their best. That's not true. The Chargers were up 10-0 and lost to the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 7 minutes ago, Big Turk said: That's not true. The Chargers were up 10-0 and lost to the Bills. Excellent work, so 2-3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, FireChans said: Yep. This ain’t the same old Chiefs. Historically, Mahomes had a pretty good winning record when down double digits. That’s no longer the case. And that will hold true for the rest of eternity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Jokeman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hold the Chiefs to less than 20, as they have a 5-8 record with Patrick Mahomes when scoring <20 points all-time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsVet Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) There's lies, damn lies, and statistics. Churchill knew what in advance that TBD'ers with too much time on their hands would get to this point...and have for years. (Correction - not Churchill, but perhaps former British PM Benjamin Disraeli or Mark Twain...who knows?) Edited January 18 by BillsVet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyBuffalo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I had a high school hockey coach that would always say heading into the third period with a lead “Hey guys if we win this period we will win the game.” He said it with such enthusiasm each and every time. The athletic director was quoted saying about him “He lacked for so MANY things it was hard to find him at fault for any results” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireChans Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, JohnnyBuffalo said: I had a high school hockey coach that would always say heading into the third period with a lead “Hey guys if we win this period we will win the game.” He said it with such enthusiasm each and every time. The athletic director was quoted saying about him “He lacked for so MANY things it was hard to find him at fault for any results” Your coach sounds like a very smart man. Let’s hope McD and Brady can prove his equal. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyBuffalo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, FireChans said: Your coach sounds like a very smart man. Let’s hope McD and Brady can prove his equal. Coach? Is that you? : ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MRW Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 The only thing I know is that one of these teams will win, and the other almost certainly will not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goin Breakdown Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Well hear things like "the team with the ball last will win" or "no lead is big enough" and so on. I will not feel comfortable until they win the super bowl. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 15 minutes ago, The Jokeman said: Hold the Chiefs to less than 20, as they have a 5-8 record with Patrick Mahomes when scoring <20 points all-time. Most of those games have come this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? It's kind of a secret in the NFL that if the game ends and you have more points that you win the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? Do you just log in and ask “what opening post can I criticize without a comment” and then just wait? I, for one, am grateful for work, thought, and an insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPL Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said: You crunched the numbers and this is the epiphany you came back with, get a fast lead and hold on? He might be on to something here... that 9-0 lead in 2020 wasn't enough. If only it had been 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 17 hours ago, Neo said: Do you just log in and ask “what opening post can I criticize without a comment” and then just wait? I, for one, am grateful for work, thought, and an insight. yes that is exactly what I do. Seems like your post is doing exactly what you are alleging i am doing. Go figure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drew21PA Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Always feel the first team to hit 30 wins for sure - almost every time college basketball first to hit 70 is what I noticed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said: yes that is exactly what I do. Seems like your post is doing exactly what you are alleging i am doing. Go figure! You know, you’re right. Except for the sentence referring to opening posts and the sentence acknowledging insight and expressing gratitude. Otherwise, they’re identical. Guilty as charged. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyBatty is alive Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, Neo said: You know, you’re right. Except for the sentence referring to opening posts and the sentence acknowledging insight and expressing gratitude. Otherwise, they’re identical. Guilty as charged. I will admit my comment was not very value added and a bit snippy as Firechans is regularly a good poster. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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