Baldy's breakdown of the punt return

[JÂy RÛßeÒ]

He said the exact same thing I did.  "No No No No No YES YES YES YES YES"
 

 

[Beck Water]

While we're talking Baldy, a few more good breakdowns.

 

Josh's  interceptions:

 

The 2nd interception had me screaming.  Kincaid was wide open for the 1st down.

 

"Better to be lucky than good"

 

[Captain_Quint]

The guy who went down with the knee injury in the middle probably could have had him, but good for Harty to recognize that he had room to work. At the stadium, fins fans all lost it when it happened. How many times did we see it when Crossman was our ST coach, too? 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

While we're talking Baldy, a few more good breakdowns.

 

Josh's  interceptions:

 

The 2nd interception had me screaming.  Kincaid was wide open for the 1st down.

 

"Better to be lucky than good"

 

#1 get the hell rid of this option route bs offense.

 

# 2 thats 2 huge screw ups by Davis this year alone.

 

# 3 all wr's should have seen the blitz and adjusted to short routes

 

#4 Josh should know by now Davis sucks,don't throw to him in important situations 

Edited January 8 by SoonerBillsFan

[Jukester]

4th and 2 - should've thrown to kincaid right away, but even after that he had Diggs and Kincaid in the middle of the field after he rolled out.  Granted it would have been away from his roll out but this should've been a conversion.

 

The Davis option route - agree, just get rid of the option.  Have Davis run a quick slant there on the all out blitz and it's an easy 6.  Middle was wide open

Edited January 8 by Jukester

[Let's Go Buffalo]

I was thinking the same thing when I saw this live.....I didn't see how badly they out-kicked the coverage until later, so it made more sense to me than at first.....Now, I'm really glad he decided to field it! Ha! Maybe that's why I never returned punts after high school.

[Warcodered]

 

worth it.

 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

While we're talking Baldy, a few more good breakdowns.

 

Josh's  interceptions:

 

The 2nd interception had me screaming.  Kincaid was wide open for the 1st down.

 

"Better to be lucky than good"

 

I mean there's a guy spying Kincaid the whole time, Josh throws that Miami has 6.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

How does Josh not see the Kincaid flat pattern is there?

Is this a situation he has predehe is going to try to go to Diggs???

Still not sure why he didn't decide to run for the first on 4th and 2 once he scrambled to the right.

[Warcodered]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

How does Josh not see the Kincaid flat pattern is there?

Is this a situation he has predehe is going to try to go to Diggs???

Still not sure why he didn't decide to run for the first on 4th and 2 once he scrambled to the right.

There's a guy watching it ready to jump the throw the entire time.

[TPS]

Maybe it doesn't matter with Harty, but I enjoyed the fact that Poona Ford (I believe it was him?) blocked the punter so that there was no possible last man option to stop Harty.

[Wraith]

 

Alright, watching Baldy's replay of the first interception is really aggravating. What was Davis thinking working back to the post? It is an all out, cover zero blitz. The DB has inside leverage. Davis gets solid positioning going to outside. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

#1 get the hell rid of this option put bs offense.

 

# 2 thats 2 huge screw ups by Davis this year alone.

 

# 3 all wr's should have seen the blitz and adjusted to short routes

 

#4 Josh should know by now Davis sucks,don't throw to him in important situations 

 

#5 Josh should probably look at who he is throwing to - he might have seen that the only guy over there was in all white.  

39 minutes ago, Wraith said:

 

Alright, watching Baldy's replay of the first interception is really aggravating. What was Davis thinking working back to the post? It is an all out, cover zero blitz. The DB has inside leverage. Davis gets solid positioning going to outside. 

 

Thats fine - but the throw didn't go outside either.  

[Wraith]

4 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

#5 Josh should probably look at who he is throwing to - he might have seen that the only guy over there was in all white.  

 

Thats fine - but the throw didn't go outside either.  

Image shows the moment Allen steps into the throw. He is looking at Davis and Apple. Red dot is where the interception happens - it was absolutely outside. Orange dot is where Davis is standing at the moment of interception. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, Wraith said:

Image shows the moment Allen steps into the throw. He is looking at Davis and Apple. Red dot is where the interception happens - it was absolutely outside. Orange dot is where Davis is standing at the moment of interception. 

 

wouldn't outside be... more towards the logo and not directly where apple was standing though?  

[Ralonzo]

If Davis turned to the outside and looked for the ball, then Apple would have been able to tackle Davis before the ball arrived which as we all know was not a penalty at that time of the game.

[MJS]

7 hours ago, Wraith said:

 

Alright, watching Baldy's replay of the first interception is really aggravating. What was Davis thinking working back to the post? It is an all out, cover zero blitz. The DB has inside leverage. Davis gets solid positioning going to outside. 

Part of the problem is Davis wasn't looking for the ball at all. He needs to get his head around right as he is breaking, but he doesn't. He takes a couple of steps before looking. The defender lets him go because he saw the pass. Allen let that ball go before Davis even made his break.

 

But Davis had a man right on him when Allen made the throw. Allen should have just thrown it out of the back of the end zone instead of throwing it to a covered man.

[peterpan]

6 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

wouldn't outside be... more towards the logo and not directly where apple was standing though?  

This what I’m saying.  Everyone is blaming Davis.  It’s gotta be on Josh.  It wasn’t thrown inside or out it was thrown right at the defender.  Just an inaccurate pass.

[MJS]

10 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

If Davis turned to the outside and looked for the ball, then Apple would have been able to tackle Davis before the ball arrived which as we all know was not a penalty at that time of the game.

I think the option was to turn and sit, or break inside. I don't think he was ever going to turn it outside.

 

If he turns and sits, the defender is right there... So, just not good all around.

1 minute ago, peterpan said:

This what I’m saying.  Everyone is blaming Davis.  It’s gotta be on Josh.  It wasn’t thrown inside or out it was thrown right at the defender.  Just an inaccurate pass.

The option was a curl route, probably. Davis turns and sits or breaks it inside. He chose inside.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I always wonder about this because you almost never see it...on those 4th down situations with a desperation heave why are DBs not just knocking the ball down to gain field position?  Seems like you always see them go for the INT?  In a league where no stone goes unturned is this not something that's taught?

[peterpan]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

I think the option was to turn and sit, or break inside. I don't think he was ever going to turn it outside.

 

If he turns and sits, the defender is right there... So, just not good all around.

The option was a curl route, probably. Davis turns and sits or breaks it inside. He chose inside.

Well if it was turn and sit on a curl route, or break inside, then It was on Josh. Curl route would be to sit in a soft spot of the zone, not against tight man like that.

 

Maybe Gabe should have altered his route earlier, like a quick slant. idk about that.  

[Kmart128]

12 minutes ago, peterpan said:

This what I’m saying.  Everyone is blaming Davis.  It’s gotta be on Josh.  It wasn’t thrown inside or out it was thrown right at the defender.  Just an inaccurate pass.

It was supposed to be a little hitch route and Gabe was either supposed to sit or break towards post. Obviously Josh thought he was gonna sit and Gabe saw middle of field wide open and broke towards the post

[Warcodered]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Part of the problem is Davis wasn't looking for the ball at all. He needs to get his head around right as he is breaking, but he doesn't. He takes a couple of steps before looking. The defender lets him go because he saw the pass. Allen let that ball go before Davis even made his break.

 

But Davis had a man right on him when Allen made the throw. Allen should have just thrown it out of the back of the end zone instead of throwing it to a covered man.

Which considering the blitz is insane.

[Utah John]

15 minutes ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said:

I always wonder about this because you almost never see it...on those 4th down situations with a desperation heave why are DBs not just knocking the ball down to gain field position?  Seems like you always see them go for the INT?  In a league where no stone goes unturned is this not something that's taught?

Suppose the Miami DB had an incentive in his contract that he got a $XXX bonus for Y interceptions, and he had Y-1 going into the game.  Even if not, these guys are rewarded for INTs far more than heads-up plays.  The INT goes into his lifetime stats, the heads-up play gets a pat on the helmet.

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there's a guy spying Kincaid the whole time, Josh throws that Miami has 6.

 

Huh?

[Utah John]

Half a second more and Josh sees that Davis is breaking to the middle of the field, and it's an easy TD.  That half second was not there because Cook missed his block.

[Utah John]

8 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I mean there's a guy spying Kincaid the whole time, Josh throws that Miami has 6.

Well, the guy tracking Kincaid is downfield so if Josh leads Kincaid he catches it and gets the first down before being tackled.  If Josh throws a flat pass, yep, it's 6 going the other way.  My money is on Josh making the right pass. But who knows, maybe Kincaid drops the pass and the Bills punt and the Dolphins get it at the 20.  We're better off with the INT.  This was the second (maybe there were more) play this year where a Josh 3rd down INT turned into something better than a punt on 4th down.

[Warcodered]

12 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Well, the guy tracking Kincaid is downfield so if Josh leads Kincaid he catches it and gets the first down before being tackled.  If Josh throws a flat pass, yep, it's 6 going the other way.  My money is on Josh making the right pass. But who knows, maybe Kincaid drops the pass and the Bills punt and the Dolphins get it at the 20.  We're better off with the INT.  This was the second (maybe there were more) play this year where a Josh 3rd down INT turned into something better than a punt on 4th down.

The guy is locked on Kincaid and Josh the whole way, the moment Josh throws he's gone and it's either broken up or stopped short, maybe we get lucky and just works out, but that defender was anticipating that throw all the way.

[Utah John]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

The guy is locked on Kincaid and Josh the whole way, the moment Josh throws he's gone and it's either broken up or stopped short, maybe we get lucky and just works out, but that defender was anticipating that throw all the way.

I just don't think the defender would be able to catch up to Kincaid if the pass was out in front where it belongs.  Kincaid might not get very far before being tackled, but I think it would be complete.  

[Bad Things]

Thanks for sharing these links, guys.  I always enjoy watch these Baldy videos.  He's very good at explaining things in a simple, clear and concise manner, instead of blowing a lot of hot air like other commentators.

[ExiledInIllinois]

Why didn't Elliott drop the INT on purpose.  Making the pick cost them 15 yards.  It was actually a nice roll of the dice by Josh.  Picks like that really don't show in stat sheet. Like a touchback on punt. 20 yard line don't hurt them.

[Zag20]

4 hours ago, Utah John said:

I just don't think the defender would be able to catch up to Kincaid if the pass was out in front where it belongs.  Kincaid might not get very far before being tackled, but I think it would be complete.  

Probably not, but I think Josh saw the defender and didn’t want to take that risk.

[Brit]

4 hours ago, Zag20 said:

Probably not, but I think Josh saw the defender and didn’t want to take that risk.

Also, we hae been plagued by a few drops in those sorts of situations this year and that could have played on Josh's mind.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

9 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Which considering the blitz is insane.

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

 

I don't think we made good enough adjustments on cover 0.  Don't love the condensed 3x1 there in the red zone as its just going to clog the middle of the field.  Also kind of kills the chances of a fade, which while its a lower percentage play is less likely to be a turnover and is really just a catch it and throw it type of play that beats cover 0.  Iso Diggs on ramsey and let it rip.  

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

That was the issue before too. Obviously I have to put some responsibility on Josh, but Gabe seemingly cannot grasp the response to a Cover 0 scenario which is hit your mark and turn around.

 

They are sending the house. You have to know it can be coming, you can't play footsie with your breaks. I don't love where Josh put it, but the odds he puts it there are lower if Gabe does his job.

 

Even if he does that - josh is late with the throw.