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I hope that Beane stops listening to McDermott when drafting


margolbe

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On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, JohnNord said:

How do you know that it was McDermott who insisted on making these picks?  How do you know it wasn’t Beane who insisted on defense?

Right. We don't know.

Much more likely is that the official story is correct: McDermott and Beane operate in lockstep on a consensus basis. And there's a good argument that having both the GM and the HC pulling in the same direction, with the same ideas of how to build a consistent winner (I think that was the definition of "the process") is largely responsible for the continuing success of the Bills franchise since their arrival. 

 

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17 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I’m not the person claiming Williams is Milano’s replacement.  That’s a HUGE stretch. He’s shown little to nothing and Milano is great.   I like Williams and would love for him to develop into Milano, but at this point he’s just as likely to be pre-season cut next season as he is an all pro.

‘M not saying Williams can step in and play at Milano’s level.  I am saying he’ll be his backup and move in should Milano get hurt again.  And Bernard and to an extent Shakir should be enough for people to quit thinking a guy is trash after just their rookie year.

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On 12/5/2023 at 11:29 AM, JackKemp said:

We have one of the best offenses in the league. Is that McDermott and Beane or by chance? I don’t buy that Josh is the only reason we have an offense by the way. 

And one of the best offensive lines this year.

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7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Does the fact that we spent the 2nd most in the NFL on defense this season sway your opinion at all

 

Meaningless stat factoid without providing any other context (or real numbers/stats). It's a relative statement. "2nd most". So what? That does not intrinsically state we are lopsided towards that side of the ball. Just that other teams havent spent as much.

 

Provide the context to other teams, or at least the context to our own Offense, and some detail.  Otherwise, there is no point being made here.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Meaningless stat factoid without providing any other context (or real numbers/stats). It's a relative statement. "2nd most". So what? That does not intrinsically state we are lopsided towards that side of the ball. Just that other teams havent spent as much.

 

Provide the context to other teams, or at least the context to our own Offense, and some detail.  Otherwise, there is no point being made here.

How is the actual figure, relative to the rest of the league, on what we spend on defense meaningless in the context of a discussion about whether defense is prioritized? 

 

We spend more, in draft capital and actual salary/cap dollars, on defense not just compared to offense but compared the league averages as well

 

And I think your cap figures for Allen/diggs are wrong too, their combined hit this year is about $32M 

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33 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right. We don't know.

Much more likely is that the official story is correct: McDermott and Beane operate in lockstep on a consensus basis. And there's a good argument that having both the GM and the HC pulling in the same direction, with the same ideas of how to build a consistent winner (I think that was the definition of "the process") is largely responsible for the continuing success of the Bills franchise since their arrival. 

 


Exactly… which is why I thought it was foolish to assign all the blame to McDermott when it more than likely should be shared equally

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9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

How is the actual figure, relative to the rest of the league, on what we spend on defense meaningless in the context of a discussion about whether defense is prioritized?

 

Because the point you are trying to prove is how much the Bills spend on Offense vs how much the Bills spend on Defense. Telling us where we rank against the rest of the league in Defensive spending doesnt tell us anything towards the main argument. A team could be FIRST in defensive spending and still spend more on offense.

 

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We spend more, in draft capital and actual salary/cap dollars, on defense not just compared to offense but compared the league averages as well

 

You have yet to prove any of this. Not saying it isnt that way, but you havent shown it.

 

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

And I think your cap figures for Allen/diggs are wrong too, their combined hit this year is about $32M 

 

That's right, my bad. Looks like I had spotrac set to 2024. They're at about 15% of our cap.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract (Morse, offense) now you are at 20%.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract after that (Dawkins, offense), now you are at about 25%.

 

Then we finally start getting some Defensive contracts.

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Because the point you are trying to prove is how much the Bills spend on Offense vs how much the Bills spend on Defense. Telling us where we rank against the rest of the league in Defensive spending doesnt tell us anything towards the main argument. A team could be FIRST in defensive spending and still spend more on offense.

 

 

You have yet to prove any of this. Not saying it isnt that way, but you havent shown it.

 

 

That's right, my bad. Looks like I had spotrac set to 2024. They're at about 15% of our cap.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract (Morse, offense) now you are at 20%.

 

Throw in the next biggest contract after that (Dawkins, offense), now you are at about 25%.

 

Then we finally start getting some Defensive contracts.

These are the figures I'm talking about, Bills spend at roughly league average on offense and a ton more on defense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

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6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Offense early should be the way to go from here on out


From 2021 to 2022 over investing on defense early in the draft was a valid criticism of the Bills drafting. But in 2023 they spent their first two picks on offense and produced two plug and play starters. 
 

I think from here on out they should be spending 2 out of the 3 top picks on offense. Sometimes you will have to spend an early pick on defense but the majority of the picks should be to put talent around Josh.

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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

These are the figures I'm talking about, Bills spend at roughly league average on offense and a ton more on defense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

 

Hey some real info! Ok, lets take a look...

 

1. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than Offense

 We spent $111M on Defense and $91M on Offense. $10M difference doesnt seem that imbalanced given it that is 1 decent contract. Or splitting it to even both sides out would just mean 1 more $5M/yr player on Offense. Meh.

 

2. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than league average.

Bills spent $111M. League average is $84M. So we're on to something there. This year.

 

3. Bills Offense:Defense Spending Differential is out of line with the rest of the league, and/or hindering our team

 

Here are the teams with the lowest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Defense)

1. Panthers -$31M

2. Steelers -$25M

3. Bills -$11.5M

4. Packers -$11M

5. 49ers -$11M

6. Seahawks -$8.5M

7. Patriots -$6M

8. Dolphins -$6M

9. Chargers -$6M

10. Vikings -$4.4M

 

Here are the teams with the highest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Offense)

1. Lions +$50M

2. Raiders +$46M

3. Ravens +$42M

4. Browns +$41.5M

5. Rams +$34M

6. Chiefs +$31M

7. Broncos +$30M

8. Texans +$27M

9. Cardinals +$26M

10. Giants +$24M

 

My biggest takeaway: Lots of playoff teams in both groups and lots of stinkers in both groups.

 

The other thing I noticed is if you click around on the different years at the top of that overthecap page, teams jump around drastically year to year. So there really isn't a way to say "X team always spends too much on this side of the ball". Really seems like it comes down to specific contracts in each individual year.

 

If there's something else you want these numbers to say then my ears are open.

 

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2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Hey some real info! Ok, lets take a look...

 

1. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than Offense

 We spent $111M on Defense and $91M on Offense. $10M difference doesnt seem that imbalanced given it that is 1 decent contract. Or splitting it to even both sides out would just mean 1 more $5M/yr player on Offense. Meh.

 

2. Bills spend a ton more on Defense than league average.

Bills spent $111M. League average is $84M. So we're on to something there. This year.

 

3. Bills Offense:Defense Spending Differential is out of line with the rest of the league, and/or hindering our team

 

Here are the teams with the lowest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Defense)

1. Panthers -$31M

2. Steelers -$25M

3. Bills -$11.5M

4. Packers -$11M

5. 49ers -$11M

6. Seahawks -$8.5M

7. Patriots -$6M

8. Dolphins -$6M

9. Chargers -$6M

10. Vikings -$4.4M

 

Here are the teams with the highest Offense:Defense spend (meaning the spend favors the Offense)

1. Lions +$50M

2. Raiders +$46M

3. Ravens +$42M

4. Browns +$41.5M

5. Rams +$34M

6. Chiefs +$31M

7. Broncos +$30M

8. Texans +$27M

9. Cardinals +$26M

10. Giants +$24M

 

My biggest takeaway: Lots of playoff teams in both groups and lots of stinkers in both groups.

 

The other thing I noticed is if you click around on the different years at the top of that overthecap page, teams jump around drastically year to year. So there really isn't a way to say "X team always spends too much on this side of the ball". Really seems like it comes down to specific contracts in each individual year.

 

If there's something else you want these numbers to say then my ears are open.

 

My thinking on this has been basically...of the first group (the high spenders on defense), only the Vikings have anything that could be considered a QB in the midterm of a big deal (Herbert's hasn't kicked in yet), the rest are all still on rookie deals. I think that's pretty relevant to consider. You can afford to spend big on defense while you figure out your QB situation, but once you've got the QB and his deal you want to start putting the resources toward supporting that investment. At least, that's what the numbers say to me. Obviously the Bills have taken a different approach.

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

My thinking on this has been basically...of the first group (the high spenders on defense), only the Vikings have anything that could be considered a QB in the midterm of a big deal (Herbert's hasn't kicked in yet), the rest are all still on rookie deals. I think that's pretty relevant to consider. You can afford to spend big on defense while you figure out your QB situation, but once you've got the QB and his deal you want to start putting the resources toward supporting that investment. At least, that's what the numbers say to me. Obviously the Bills have taken a different approach.

 

Right. And this was the first year Josh's new contract was supposed to kick in (but the restructure kicked that can a bit). So with an $18M cap hit, we are in that same situation as everyone but the Vikings.

 

Now, that is all set to change next year (unless we restructure Josh again). Where in 2024 the Bills will are spending $155M on Offense and $120M on Defense, flipping our differential to a +$35M number.

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Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Right. And this was the first year Josh's new contract was supposed to kick in (but the restructure kicked that can a bit). So with an $18M cap hit, we are in that same situation as everyone but the Vikings.

 

Now, that is all set to change next year (unless we restructure Josh again). Where in 2024 the Bills will are spending $155M on Offense and $120M on Defense, flipping our differential to a +$35M number.

I imagine they are going to do a bunch of restructures on the offensive side of the ball, which will bring that figure down

 

Regardless, I don't see how the fact that we spend more on defense and less on offense is in question here...especially among teams who are considered contenders/have a franchise type QB contract on the books. Since 2020 we've spent the 6th most, 2nd most, 2nd most, and 2nd most on defense in the league respectively. There's no other team who comes close to the kind of consistent investment in defensive spending the Bills commit to over the last 3+seasons.

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On 12/5/2023 at 10:00 AM, JohnNord said:

I love how because McDermott is an unpopular figure around here, everything that’s gone wrong is his fault 🤣🤣😂

 

How do you know that it was McDermott who insisted on making these picks?  How do you know it wasn’t Beane who insisted on defense?

 

 

 

Indeed. McDermott is the scapegoat. It's a means for fans to protect Beane, Allen, etc. and maintain a glimmer of the hype. 

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I thought it was pretty clear that McClappy is an expert at the draft. He astutely traded the right to pick Mahomes so that we could draft a CB later in the first round. Brilliant move.🙄

 

McClappy should thank his lucky stars that Beane was able to engineer it so that the Bills could pick Josh and that Josh was available. 

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1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Like we did this year that pushed our Offensive spending so slightly under our Defensive spending? :thumbsup:

Again, have to ask you look at league averages. Other teams restructure as well. We spend a ton on defense relative to the rest of the league and especially contenders w franchise QBs.

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2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I mean the Chiefs restructured Mahomes just earlier this year

 

That was a totally different type of restructure than the usual "convert salary to bonus" lever that gets pulled and we are referring to. They addressed 4 years at once.

 

AND the Chiefs are still in the top 5 for Offensive spending. Not sure who they are paying on that squad outside of Pat and Kelce.

 

Bills restructured about $30M in salaries this season which put them in a -$11M spend Offense:Defense. Otherwise we'd be spending a lot more on Offense.

 

You say other teams did that too. Who?

 

Look, I dont want to keep this back and forth going all night. I dont even disagree that much with things you are saying. But you're saying a whole lot seemingly based on feels, and when pressed for data and/or analysis, change the argument.

 

I don't see any clear cut evidence so far that shows the Bills spend a disproportionate amount on Defense over Offense. Not draft picks, not FA signings, not Cap space.

 

"More" on Defense than Offense? Sure. A bit. But nothing crazy.

 

Anyone who wants to make that argument needs to do some work and provide the real numbers.

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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

That was a totally different type of restructure than the usual "convert salary to bonus" lever that gets pulled and we are referring to. They addressed 4 years at once.

 

AND the Chiefs are still in the top 5 for Offensive spending. Not sure who they are paying on that squad outside of Pat and Kelce.

 

Bills restructured about $30M in salaries this season which put them in a -$11M spend Offense:Defense. Otherwise we'd be spending a lot more on Offense.

 

You say other teams did that too. Who?

 

Look, I dont want to keep this back and forth going all night. I dont even disagree that much with things you are saying. But you're saying a whole lot seemingly based on feels, and when pressed for data and/or analysis, change the argument.

 

I don't see any clear cut evidence so far that shows the Bills spend a disproportionate amount on Defense over Offense. Not draft picks, not FA signings, not Cap space.

 

"More" on Defense than Offense? Sure. A bit. But nothing crazy.

 

Anyone who wants to make that argument needs to do some work and provide the real numbers.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/restructure/

 

List of restructures this season

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

 

List of offense vs defense spending showing since 2020 Bills spending the most in the league on defense, about average/below average on offense

 

That's all I got I guess

 

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1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/transactions/restructure/

 

List of restructures this season

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

 

List of offense vs defense spending showing since 2020 Bills spending the most in the league on defense, about average/below average on offense

 

That's all I got I guess

 

 

The list at face value doesnt show that. If you want to compile that data to prove the point you have been trying to make, go ahead.

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23 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

The list at face value doesnt show that. If you want to compile that data to prove the point you have been trying to make, go ahead.

I mean should I chew their food up for them too😂😂I'm not going to waste my time if people can't read a simple list and make their own inferences

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6 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Yes I do 😉

 

Basically Von’s contract tilted things in favor of the defense, but it’s not like we have neglected the offense. We’ve still made some serious investments on that side dating back to 2019. 

 

Here's the way I see it.

 

On defense we have invested enough into every position. The results haven't all been great but I don't think anyone disagrees that we have invested plenty at every level of the defense.

 

On offense we have not invested nearly enough at WR, and IMO not enough at OL either. Using day three picks and paying the likes of Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield is not true investment.

 

Looking at just premium positions, we have spent a ton of draft picks and cap space on CBs and DEs, and comparatively very little on WRs and OTs.

 

Parse all the minute details out however you want, the top end investment has clearly weighed much more heavily towards the defense.

 

Edited by HappyDays
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's the way I see it.

 

On defense we have invested enough into every position. The results haven't all been great but I don't think anyone disagrees that we have invested plenty at every level of the defense.

 

On offense we have not invested nearly enough at WR, and IMO not enough at OL either. Using day three picks and paying the likes of Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield is not true investment.

 

Looking at just premium positions, we have spent a ton of draft picks and cap space on CBs and DEs, and comparatively very little on WRs and OTs.

 

Parse all the minute details out however you want, the top end investment has clearly weighed much more heavily towards the defense.

 

I think a big reason we spend so much on defense is on defense you tend to play more players. As on offense ideally you only play 1 QB all season, 1 group of 5 offensive lineman, 1 sure fire WR and TE. By contrast on D you're constantly shuffling in DLineman, maybe 1-2 more DBs on third down etc. As a result paying for quality depth more important on D vs O.

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14 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I think a big reason we spend so much on defense is on defense you tend to play more players. As on offense ideally you only play 1 QB all season, 1 group of 5 offensive lineman, 1 sure fire WR and TE. By contrast on D you're constantly shuffling in DLineman, maybe 1-2 more DBs on third down etc. As a result paying for quality depth more important on D vs O.

 

Sure, that's why I don't focus too much on the details. The problem is on defense they have spent resources on starters and depth, whereas on offense they have spent resources mostly just on depth. This is the first offseason in Allen's career where Beane made a concerted effort to address the OL. He has not even attempted to address WR2 the past two offseasons. It is a legitimate failing of this regime.

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On 12/5/2023 at 12:10 PM, margolbe said:

A good pick.  Why not another wide receiver and a backup quarterback?

 

Why?  Is your goal to waste a draft pick?  This team is good and Allen is great.  There is no QB controversy here.  The only way the backup QB sees the field is in a blow out win or loss or Allen gets hurt.  As many have said, though not this year, team needs a backup QB good enough to win a game or two until Allen gets back.  Why would you want to trust a rookie QB in that role while you can always find a Tribisky, K Allen, and others just like that. 

 

Drafting another punter would make much more sense than drafting a rookie QB.

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10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sure, that's why I don't focus too much on the details. The problem is on defense they have spent resources on starters and depth, whereas on offense they have spent resources mostly just on depth. This is the first offseason in Allen's career where Beane made a concerted effort to address the OL. He has not even attempted to address WR2 the past two offseasons. It is a legitimate failing of this regime.

I disagree, we've brought in offensive lineman throughout Beane's tenure, see drafting of Ford, Teller, signing Spain, Williams, Stafford etc. Just because the guys didn't end up long terms answers doesn't mean he hasn't tried. 

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On 12/5/2023 at 10:54 AM, margolbe said:

We need a true number 2 wide receiver (assuming Diggs stays), another offensive lineman (or two), a RB in the line of Murray, but with youth.  
On the defensive side we need someone to replace DeQuan Jones (assuming he goes elsewhere).  Don't know how Milano is going to recover, so we should consider his replacement.

No.  The offensive line is playing very well -- we can always use more OLs, but our starters are fine.  We do not need another RB.  I don't see any issues at LB.  

 

Okay, we could probably use another WR.  You got that one right.

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13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Here's the way I see it.

 

On defense we have invested enough into every position. The results haven't all been great but I don't think anyone disagrees that we have invested plenty at every level of the defense.

 

On offense we have not invested nearly enough at WR, and IMO not enough at OL either. Using day three picks and paying the likes of Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield is not true investment.

 

Looking at just premium positions, we have spent a ton of draft picks and cap space on CBs and DEs, and comparatively very little on WRs and OTs.

 

Parse all the minute details out however you want, the top end investment has clearly weighed much more heavily towards the defense.

 

 

 

Stefon Diggs came from a 1st round pick, plus a few extras. Same with Kincaid. 

 

Torrence is a high pick, as is Cook. Brown, Moss, Ford, Singletary, Knox, all top three round picks from the last five years.

 

That's 2/5 1sts, 3/5 2nds and 4/6 3rds. On offense.

 

$97M this year on offensive spending and $103M on defensive, according to Spotrac.

 

Top end investment has not really leaned all that far towards defense. It may seem that way, but that's confirmation bias.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Torrence is a high pick, as is Cook. Brown, Moss, Ford, Singletary, Knox, all top three round picks from the last five years.

 

 

And who do Moss, Ford and Singletary play for these days?  4/7 on this list isn't a great draft record, esp since this board has been fairly unhappy with Brown for the past three season.

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34 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

And who do Moss, Ford and Singletary play for these days?  4/7 on this list isn't a great draft record, esp since this board has been fairly unhappy with Brown for the past three season.

 

 

Major problems with this post. First, I didn't have a list of seven. I listed Diggs and Kincaid also, making nine. Six out of nine isn't bad at all, especially when two out of the three who are gone are good players, just either a bad fit here or let go for cap reasons. Only Ford was a really bad pick of the nine. And we can probably say the same about Basham on defense. And the same or worse about nearly every team out there if you go back five years.

 

Second, I didn't say anything about whether they were good picks. 

 

He claimed we weren't using top end resources on offense. I pointed out that that is at best questionable.

 

If you have a point, go make it. But don't reply to one of my posts and then ignore my actual point.

 

Oh, and Brown now is starting to look like a very solid pick indeed, no matter what some rather clueless folks want to say about a guy who was dealing with a serious back injury. And this is his third season, not his fourth. If they were complaining about his Brown's "past three seasons," that would include his last year at Northern Iowa.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Major problems with this post. First, I didn't have a list of seven. I listed Diggs and Kincaid also, making nine. Six out of nine isn't bad at all, especially when two out of the three who are gone are good players, just either a bad fit here or let go for cap reasons. Only Ford was a really bad pick of the nine. And we can probably say the same about Basham on defense. And the same or worse about nearly every team out there if you go back five years.

 

Second, I didn't say anything about whether they were good picks. 

 

He claimed we weren't using top end resources on offense. I pointed out that that is at best questionable.

 

If you have a point, go make it. But don't reply to one of my posts and then ignore my actual point.

 

Oh, and Brown now is starting to look like a very solid pick indeed, no matter what some rather clueless folks want to say about a guy who was dealing with a serious back injury. And this is his third season, not his fourth. If they were complaining about his Brown's "past three seasons," that would include his last year at Northern Iowa.

 

 

 

Bro, it's not even worth this effort. I've been making these same arguments since page 2. And they havent even been arguments, just analyzing the real data and seeing what the actual truth is.

 

It doest matter what you can actually prove. Folks here FEEL like we've been lopsided to Defensive spending and anything you show them to prove otherwise will only result in moving the goal posts.

 

We havent been lopsided in drafting, nor free agency spending, nor cap % spending.

 

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18 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Again, have to ask you look at league averages. Other teams restructure as well. We spend a ton on defense relative to the rest of the league and especially contenders w franchise QBs.

 

 

 

From league average, we're a bit off, yes, fair enough. But Dallas is a contender. Miami too. Philly too. SF. Seattle. Minnesota was too before Cousins went down.

 

Hell, those are the majority of the contenders and several of the top tier, and all either are very close or spend more on defense. It's not as wildly unusual as you are suggesting.

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@DrDawkinsteindid more work for you

 

since 2018 Bills have drafted (according to draft value chart) 4,954.4 points worth of defensive players and 4,187.5 points worth of offensive players not including the Stefon Diggs trade. That comes out to 174points/offensive player and 261 points/defensive player.

 

If you want to include Diggs trade they spent 199points/offensive player.

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