Jim Kubiak Analysis in BN

[Casey D]

Jim Kubiak: This Bills’ offense doesn't know what it wants to be (buffalonews.com)

 

Really good stuff here.

 

In brief, Kubiak explains that a number of factors went into the Bills loss and offensive woes.  Number 1, the Bengals did a great job of limiting the Bills possessions by draining the clock.  The Bills only had 9 possessions, and that was knocked down to 7 by the two turnovers. Bills only had ball on O for 23 minutes, largely because defense could not get off the field quickly.

 

The offense has an identity crisis.  Dorsey seems to be trying to do too many different things and the Bills are not doing any of them well.  Need to settle on what they do well and execute.

 

Allen continues to make poor decisions in key situations, always in the vein of trying to do too much.  He has open receivers underneath but he does not take them in hope of making a big play which can turn into disaster.

 

Bills offensive line struggled in run blocking.  Often left Bills behind the chains. Bills do better when up tempo.

 

There is much more, so definitely worth the read. 

[billybob71]

its like ok uptempo is working ok we better stop before they adjust to it... lets slow back down. Or on another drive, we break off a couple good runs and OL and RB is starting to get in a groove and be physical, well we better stop doing that now before they adjust and stop it. And then play action with Josh under center is working uh oh better not keep doing that to much and show that tendency or they will adjust... and on and on it goes.  How about  keep doing what is working and force them to stop it  he never does that, way overthinks it. Its like watching my kid play Madden just clicking on random plays.

[BarleyNY]

The Bills are definitely a team that wins with talent rather than scheme. That’s always been true with the defense, but the offense under Dorsey is now in the same category. With all of the injuries this year - especially those to the best players - the defense doesn’t have the horses to do that. The play calling decisions have only made it worse. Exhibit A is the 6 man blitzes against Burrow, who is one of the best at beating the blitz.

 

The offense does not have anything close to the talent that the defense does - at least when injured players are included. I appreciate that they added to the offense in this past draft, but for this season it is too little, too late. Their inability to effectively run the ball (with RBs) is even worse than it looks since defenses usually have light boxes. The passing concepts are pretty basic too. The last two seasons how many defenders have mentioned that they knew what play was coming? That’s a function of basic schemes and a lack of diversity in play design. The play selection leaves a lot to be desired as well. By the third drive I was calling out the runs before the Bills snapped the ball against the Bengals. I wasn’t perfect, but I was legitimately at 80-90%. If I can do that from my couch I’m sure a decent NFL coordinator can do better. 

[Casey D]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The Bills are definitely a team that wins with talent rather than scheme. That’s always been true with the defense, but the offense under Dorsey is now in the same category. With all of the injuries this year - especially those to the best players - the defense doesn’t have the horses to do that. The play calling decisions have only made it worse. Exhibit A is the 6 man blitzes against Burrow, who is one of the best at beating the blitz.

 

The offense does not have anything close to the talent that the defense does - at least when injured players are included. I appreciate that they added to the offense in this past draft, but for this season it is too little, too late. Their inability to effectively run the ball (with RBs) is even worse than it looks since defenses usually have light boxes. The passing concepts are pretty basic too. The last two seasons how many defenders have mentioned that they knew what play was coming? That’s a function of basic schemes and a lack of diversity in play design. The play selection leaves a lot to be desired as well. By the third drive I was calling out the runs before the Bills snapped the ball against the Bengals. I wasn’t perfect, but I was legitimately at 80-90%. If I can do that from my couch I’m sure a decent NFL coordinator can do better. 

Agree-- but it is a combination of things that is contributing to the problems.  I don't know if they can clean them all up, but if Dorsey would go up temp and simplify, make calls that are easier for the OL to block, and Josh would play within himself, it would go a long way to giving improvement IMO.

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, Casey D said:

Agree-- but it is a combination of things that is contributing to the problems.  I don't know if they can clean them all up, but if Dorsey would go up temp and simplify, make calls that are easier for the OL to block, and Josh would play within himself, it would go a long way to giving improvement IMO.

 

I agree, but I think this illustrates the general issues with scheme and play calling. Tempo can help mitigate them. So I agree that we should utilize it more. But it’s a short term band aid rather than long term solution. 

[Punching Bag]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-this-bills-offense-doesnt-know-what-it-wants-to-be/article_ea3e87be-7da0-11ee-909e-ff5d176325ef.html

Paygate is open for me.  Did not need to use any of my tricks and saved article as PDF as usual.

[Mango]

I struggle with the grading on this. The overall grade is debatable. We moved the ball on the first drive and second half. But lacked scoring. I can get behind some of the better moments carrying more weight though 
 

The 83% in the second quarter seems high. 4/9 37 yards, an INT, and loads of open targets gets a B? This is the quarter we’re all wringing both Dorsey and Allen’s necks on, and a B?

[corta765]

It is so noticeable that the offense has an identity crisis and is trying to do too much. I think this is why then Josh locks scatterbrained or indecisive because too much is changing and we have no consistency. At this point they really need to revert to 11p/spread 4 or 5 with tempo and run it from there. You can mix in packages if it is red zone or short yardage etc.. but that should be the core focus moving forward.

 

A lot of people keep bringing up 2021, but the offense never felt like it lost its identity as much as it just need to click and get it together which is why I never freaked when they were up and down. Right now I have real concern because they lack the consistency and the identity is still MIA so it is hard to see them winning 10-11 games without that and the D being porus. The most frustrating thing is Kincaid & Shakir seem to really be grabbing a footing which mixed with Diggs great play and a better o line the offense on paper has vastly more potential then what we have seen the last bunch of weeks. I am just not sure they maximize that potential at this point.

[78thealltimegreat]

The Bengals really didn’t stop the Bills but what they did do was as he stated drain the clock to limit possessions. 
Josh only had 12 incompletions on 38 attempts and two of those were his int and the ridiculous intentional grounding call. 
I don’t know what the Bills are either does McDermott want them to grind out drives and protect his injuries on D. cause if that’s the case Josh can’t be throwing the ball every down you need a competent running game to give the man a break and in the Bengals game he was the leading rusher again.

Do they want to go uptempo and pressure the defense knowing a few three and outs are possible. 
I just don’t know what McDermott wants. 

Edited November 8, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[corta765]

30 minutes ago, Mango said:

I struggle with the grading on this. The overall grade is debatable. We moved the ball on the first drive and second half. But lacked scoring. I can get behind some of the better moments carrying more weight though 
 

The 83% in the second quarter seems high. 4/9 37 yards, an INT, and loads of open targets gets a B? This is the quarter we’re all wringing both Dorsey and Allen’s necks on, and a B?

 

I have always taken his grade with a grain of salt. I think Kubiak has great analysis and generally makes me feel better about Josh if it was a bad game for the team. But sometimes like this game I curve the grade down a 1/2 grade or so. C+ / B- feels more right for the CIN game as like you said 2nd quarter was not good enough and the pick was awful. On the flipside the 2nd half they did get going and I really wish I could've seen Josh down 24-17 if the Kincaid fumble doesn't happen and they score like they looked like they were going to, but such is life.

[boyst]

i don't know why the defense gets a pass for never being able to get off the field. it's insane.

 

don't give me there are injuries. we have played piss poor offenses and can't get off the field and allowed a terrible patriots team to nearly beat us driving the field when it mattered.

[corta765]

18 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The Bengals really didn’t stop the Bills but what they did do was as he stated drain the clock to limit possessions. 

 

You can ask my wife I was screaming at my TV as the defense couldn't get off the field and time kept running. Opposing teams have gotten really good at running clock and limiting possessions which in turn has made our office which has been average to decent at best and made the situation even more pressure filled.

 

Honestly it would be better if the defense allowed a faster score because at least the offense would get the ball back. CIN/JAX it was like these long death knell type drives that still ended as TDs which cut us both in score and ability to respond.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

i don't know why the defense gets a pass for never being able to get off the field. it's insane.

 

don't give me there are injuries. we have played piss poor offenses and can't get off the field and allowed a terrible patriots team to nearly beat us driving the field when it mattered.

 

The defense was lucky the Bengals shot themselves in the foot a few times too. Everyone knew on that last drive there was no way we were getting that stop. If they went pedal to the metal they would've blown the doors off us. 

[78thealltimegreat]

6 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

You can ask my wife I was screaming at my TV as the defense couldn't get off the field and time kept running. Opposing teams have gotten really good at running clock and limiting possessions which in turn has made our office which has been average to decent at best and made the situation even more pressure filled.

 

Honestly it would be better if the defense allowed a faster score because at least the offense would get the ball back. CIN/JAX it was like these long death knell type drives that still ended as TDs which cut us both in score and ability to respond.

Hey you make a very good point this team just cannot seemingly get off the field on 3rd down thus making any offensive possessions they get absolutely critical. 
Most of that is cause they can’t generate a pass rush I know they miss Daquan but come on they have enough talent to at least force a qb into a bad throw now and then. 

[pocoboy]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

The offense does not have anything close to the talent that the defense does - at least when injured players are included. I appreciate that they added to the offense in this past draft, but for this season it is too little, too late. Their inability to effectively run the ball (with RBs) is even worse than it looks since defenses usually have light boxes. The passing concepts are pretty basic too. The last two seasons how many defenders have mentioned that they knew what play was coming? That’s a function of basic schemes and a lack of diversity in play design. The play selection leaves a lot to be desired as well. By the third drive I was calling out the runs before the Bills snapped the ball against the Bengals. I wasn’t perfect, but I was legitimately at 80-90%. If I can do that from my couch I’m sure a decent NFL coordinator can do better. 

 

McDermott's imprint on the first few years of drafting is stark. Not only drafting, but FA signing. They say it's won and lost at the line of scrimmage, but McDermott has only invested top resources on his side of the LOS. While KC and CIN are out getting top talent to fill gaps, we're scrounging on the scrap heap of Saffold and Quessenberry. Morse is the only one that you'd consider a major investment.

11 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

You can ask my wife I was screaming at my TV as the defense couldn't get off the field and time kept running. Opposing teams have gotten really good at running clock and limiting possessions which in turn has made our office which has been average to decent at best and made the situation even more pressure filled.

 

Honestly it would be better if the defense allowed a faster score because at least the offense would get the ball back. CIN/JAX it was like these long death knell type drives that still ended as TDs which cut us both in score and ability to respond.

 

It's the offense. If the offense keeps scoring, the opponent can't afford to blow the time. And the defense DID get off the field after Josh's INT. It's the offense, they need to get their heads out of their a$$es, ALL OF THEM.

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, pocoboy said:

McDermott's imprint on the first few years of drafting is stark. Not only drafting, but FA signing. They say it's won and lost at the line of scrimmage, but McDermott has only invested top resources on his side of the LOS. While KC and CIN are out getting top talent to fill gaps, we're scrounging on the scrap heap of Saffold and Quessenberry. Morse is the only one that you'd consider a major investment.

Agreed. That’s exactly how I see it. This past draft was a nice deviation from the status quo, but too little, too late IMO. 

[BBFL]

2 hours ago, Casey D said:

 

 

In brief, Kubiak explains that a number of factors went into the Bills loss and offensive woes.  Number 1, the Bengals did a great job of limiting the Bills possessions by draining the clock.  The Bills only had 9 possessions, and that was knocked down to 7 by the two turnovers. Bills only had ball on O for 23 minutes, largely because defense could not get off the field quickly.

 

The offense has an identity crisis.  Dorsey seems to be trying to do too many different things and the Bills are not doing any of them well.  Need to settle on what they do well and execute.

 

Allen continues to make poor decisions in key situations, always in the vein of trying to do too much.  He has open receivers underneath but he does not take them in hope of making a big play which can turn into disaster.

 

Bills offensive line struggled in run blocking.  Often left Bills behind the chains. Bills do better when up tempo.

 

There is much more, so definitely worth the read. 

Scoring and not turning the ball over in close games is the be all, end all. 
 

Possessions:

10 Cinci’

9 Buffalo

 

Yards:

397 Cinci’

317 Buffalo

 

Turnovers:

0 Cinci’

2 Buffalo

 

TOP:

37mins Cinci’

23mins Buffalo

 

Cincinnati punted after Josh’s INT on a drive that went -1 yards. 
 

After the fumble the D gave up an 85 yard drive but still held their own in the RZ when it mattered. They gave up on massive catch to Chase during it who, with it, was still held in check this whole game for a stud #1. 
 

Our drive that followed we went 75 yards in 4:36. 
 

If Von Miller makes that tackle instead of falling on his face on 3rd down on their last drive, we might be talking a different story. We might not. They could have kicked a FG. Which really would have been a wash without the Kincaid fumble in the RZ as we come away with at least 3. 

 

Either way our defense isn’t that bad for missing key components throughout the season; an all-pro LB, all-pro CB and a run stuffing DT who was playing lights out for not being a marquee name on the unit. 
 

The only play I hang the hat on a failed drive for them is that TD to Sample at the end of the 1st half; horrible tackling and recognition on a big 3rd and 7 with under 2 minutes to play. 

Cinci’ did not turn the ball over, we did. 
That team rolled over a defense considered the consensus #1 by hanging 31 the week prior. 
 

Need to score consistently. 
Need to mitigate the turnovers. 
 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by BBFL

[SCBills]

The point about TOP and the Defense cannot be overstated. 

 

McDermott is a defensive HC and yes, we've had injuries, but not only are they giving up points quickly every game.. they don't get off the field.  Even when they get a stop, the opposing team has typically gotten 2-3 first downs and we end up starting our drives backed up.  

 

This doesn't excuse the clunky and unacceptable offensive performances, but if we are going to have a Defensive-minded HC, we can't have a sieve of a Defense when some injuries occur.  He needs to be better and now that Douglas/Joseph have had time to integrate... it needs to start now. 

[DuckyBoys]

defense cant get off the field on third and long  Their play style is to eventually get you into a 3rd and long but no longer have the capability of getting a stop  Bend dont break doesn't work if you just keep backpedaling and giving up green grass  D line has disappeared  Guess Jones was a huge factor  Used to be 3rd and long ended with a pass underneath and rally tackle for a stop  Think offenses have figured out McDermott  He's still running the same scheme he found success with but now its 7 years later and its been analyzed and figured out  One thing I notice is there are always guys open underneath 6 to 8 yards downfield  Maybe get some dbs who can run, there is zero speed in this secondary

[BBFL]

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

The point about TOP and the Defense cannot be overstated. 

 

McDermott is a defensive HC and yes, we've had injuries, but not only are they giving up points quickly every game.. they don't get off the field.  Even when they get a stop, the opposing team has typically gotten 2-3 first downs and we end up starting our drives backed up.  

 

This doesn't excuse the clunky and unacceptable offensive performances, but if we are going to have a Defensive-minded HC, we can't have a sieve of a Defense when some injuries occur.  He needs to be better and now that Douglas/Joseph have had time to integrate... it needs to start now. 

 

For the circumstances on the defense they aren’t playing bad against teams who rack up points. 
 

They aren’t a top unit but we’ve still been in every game. 
 

The defense has lost us one game only. The Patriots. Thought they would stop them the next time on the field after that massive fumble to put us back in the game. 

4 minutes ago, DuckyBoys said:

defense cant get off the field on third and long  Their play style is to eventually get you into a 3rd and long but no longer have the capability of getting a stop  Bend dont break doesn't work if you just keep backpedaling and giving up green grass  D line has disappeared  Guess Jones was a huge factor  Used to be 3rd and long ended with a pass underneath and rally tackle for a stop  Think offenses have figured out McDermott  He's still running the same scheme he found success with but now its 7 years later and its been analyzed and figured out  One thing I notice is there are always guys open underneath 6 to 8 yards downfield  Maybe get some dbs who can run, there is zero speed in this secondary

This defense is build to play with a lead. Very simple. Their whole success under McD has been just that. 
 

They’re a middle of the pack unit. 
 

Our offense is not. Or at least was not. They should be a Top 5 like they have been as all the components are still there with slightly improved OLine play from years prior. 

[Casey D]

2 hours ago, BBFL said:

 

For the circumstances on the defense they aren’t playing bad against teams who rack up points. 
 

They aren’t a top unit but we’ve still been in every game. 
 

The defense has lost us one game only. The Patriots. Thought they would stop them the next time on the field after that massive fumble to put us back in the game. 

This defense is build to play with a lead. Very simple. Their whole success under McD has been just that. 
 

They’re a middle of the pack unit. 
 

Our offense is not. Or at least was not. They should be a Top 5 like they have been as all the components are still there with slightly improved OLine play from years prior. 

Agree.  Good observations.

[Bad Things Man]

McD's fear of getting beat deep is causing our corners to give too much cushion; which is causing the opposing team to pick us apart underneath; which is causing long sustained drives and less drives for our offense; which is causing our defense to not get off the field; which is causing the increased amount of defensive injuries this year.

[Mister Defense]

To me, this post loses its credibility when you (Kubiak?) say:  "Bills only had ball on O for 23 minutes, largely because defense could not get off the field quickly."

 

Huh?

 

Did you (Kubiak?) watch this game?

 

The offense is the main reason for this.  They had under 40 yards in the first half after the first drive--and into the 2nd quarter, drive after drive with a catastrophically low number of both first downs and yards. And they ran the ball, what 5-6 times, with their running backs!?

 

And the lack of TOP is on the defense?  Completely nonsensical.

 

The defense took some time to get settled, but then limited the Bengals to one field goal in the second half, though missing their best CB (and then another starter in the game), best run stuffeing lineman, best linebacker (and then another starter in the game), and best defensive end.

 

Ridiculous to call out the defense as the problem in general, and then specifically for the lack of offensive time of possession.

 

So easy to shoot that silly, illogical idea down with the facts.

 

 

[Chaos]

12 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The Bills are definitely a team that wins with talent rather than scheme.

Does this mean the same thing as :

"Bills win in spite of poor coaching." ?

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Does this mean the same thing as :

"Bills win in spite of poor coaching." ?

Yikes! I guess I’m saying that innovative schemes isn’t their strong suit. There are other parts of coaching that I think they are much better at. They’ve built a very good team and turned around a franchise that was foundering. Some coaches are more about motivation, execution, etc. While I think McDermott choked away the Bills best chance at a SB with 13 seconds, he did get the team to that point. They were capable of winning a SB that year. I do question McDermott’s ability to fully motivate the team at this time though. I think he’s run his course with the team and some new blood is needed. 

[PBF81]

13 hours ago, Casey D said:

The offense has an identity crisis.  

 

That right there sums it up.  

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Allen is going to want out.
 

Chained to these underneath WRs and this dink and dunk pipe dream. 
 

Turk Schonert calling out Dick Jauron’s popgun offense. 

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Allen is going to want out.
 

Chained to these underneath WRs and this dink and dunk pipe dream. 
 

Turk Schonert calling out Dick Jauron’s popgun offense. 

If Josh goes to Pegula and says that he's unhappy with coaching, the coaching would be changed. 

[Chaos]

8 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

If Josh goes to Pegula and says that he's unhappy with coaching, the coaching would be changed. 

Nothing is evident in Allen's public personality to suggest he would ever undermine someone else.  He also likely won't ask to be moved while he is under contract.  But when his contract is up, if we are still dicking around with McDermott and/or Dorsey and having early playoff exits, Allen will enter free agency. 

Its incumbnent on Beane or Pegula to figure out the situation on their own. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Chaos

[All_Pro_Bills]

8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Nothing is evident in Allen's public personality to suggest he would ever undermine someone else.  He also likely won't ask to be moved while he is under contract.  But when his contract is up, if we are still dicking around with McDermott and/or Dorsey and having early playoff exits, Allen will enter free agency. 

Its incumbnent on Beane or Pegula to figure out the situation on their own. 

Allen is a free agent in 2029.  The thought of the team still "dicking" around with McDermott and Dorsey for 5 more seasons is frightening.  And yet given the history of the team's unwillingness to know when to say when, quite possible. 

[Low Positive]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Nothing is evident in Allen's public personality to suggest he would ever undermine someone else.  He also likely won't ask to be moved while he is under contract.  But when his contract is up, if we are still dicking around with McDermott and/or Dorsey and having early playoff exits, Allen will enter free agency. 

Its incumbnent on Beane or Pegula to figure out the situation on their own. 

That would be 2029, and that’s excluding  the very real possibility that Josh signs an extension this off-season to match the Burrow contract.