Josh’s stats so far - the Ken Dorsey Offense

[Big Turk]

The offense is not as big of a problem as you think...Weeks 5-7 Bills are 2nd ranked offense in EPA/play next to KC. It's all situational...and the D not getting them enough cracks when they get on fire in the 2nd half of games. First half, they are not good, 2nd half they have been nearly unstoppable...just no help in the 2nd half from the D to get them more possessions.

 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Big Turk

[Billl]

Just now, Matt_In_NH said:

I am good with your reasoning on being impressed but why is it the OCs job to win and lose vs the head coach, defense, quarterback?   Lots of blame on Dorsey but I am not convinced it is totally warranted. 

I don't think it is.  In fact, I've been pretty vocal that Beane is the biggest issue.  He's let this roster get old and expensive.  Before this season started, I caught all kinds of heat for saying that everyone should be prepared for major injury issues again this year.  

 

There are very few key players on this roster who aren't either old, coming off serious injuries, or both.  Now Von looks washed, Tre is done, Jones is done, and we're not even halfway through the season.  Poyer and Hyde can still get by on veteran savvy, but they're clearly shells of their former selves, and that's only going to get worse as the season progresses.  That's a GM problem rather than a coaching problem.  (I do acknowledge that it could be a lot of McDermott getting involved in personnel decisions, but it's still not a function of coaching.)

[Roundybout]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Weeks 5-7.

 

 

Oh cripes I didn’t even see that. Now I’m even more confused. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Roundybout said:

Oh cripes I didn’t even see that. Now I’m even more confused. 

I don’t understand either. It is for a full game and they did actually put up decent numbers by the end of Jacksonville and Ne games. It’s just for about 3/4 of the game they stunk. 

[Roundybout]

3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I don’t understand either. It is for a full game and they did actually put up decent numbers by the end of Jacksonville and Ne games. It’s just for about 3/4 of the game they stunk. 

You’d think the entire Giants game would drag it down 

[ngbills]

My guess on EPA stats. Its these long drives that boost EPA. Getting first downs and long drives help boost the EPA. But I would argue that is not the Bills. They are trying to be the grind it out 10 minute drive team and is efficient getting 8 first downs on a drive. Look at the past few years and games the offense was clicking. Those are more of the 3 minute drive variety not 5+. 

[Returntoglory]

1 hour ago, Roundybout said:

Yes, wanted to focus purely on passing to show how the scheme has changed 

But wasn't Josh's running a big part of the "scheme" ?

[Roundybout]

33 minutes ago, Returntoglory said:

But wasn't Josh's running a big part of the "scheme" ?

Fair point. I was looking to purely isolate passing, but maybe that isn’t a good idea 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The offense is not as big of a problem as you think...Weeks 5-7 Bills are 2nd ranked offense in EPA/play next to KC. It's all situational...and the D not getting them enough cracks when they get on fire in the 2nd half of games. First half, they are not good, 2nd half they have been nearly unstoppable...just no help in the 2nd half from the D to get them more possessions.

 

 

 

I don't care about EPA.  I care about wins. The offense was not good period.  EPA can kiss my ass.  20, 14, 25.  Thats the scores over the last 3 weeks. 1 win and 2 losses.  Most of those points are last minute oh crap lets open the offense up points.  Use your eyeballs instead of stats.  What part of this offense looked like the #2 offense in the league over the last 3 weeks?

[Returntoglory]

3 hours ago, Roundybout said:

Fair point. I was looking to purely isolate passing, but maybe that isn’t a good idea 

Sounds like a good idea to me. 

[Dr.Sack]

The reality is Josh is performing nearly at the same level while the defense is battered and injured. Has Allen played without the top 3 players on defense?

[pigpen65]

12 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I get it isn’t all on Dorsey, players need to execute, ect, but Josh Allen clearly doesn’t fit this Ken Dorsey offense and players seem to have a difficult time picking it up. 

What players? The opposing players have had no problem picking it up.

[Old Coot]

9 hours ago, ngbills said:

My guess on EPA stats. Its these long drives that boost EPA

What is EPA? I'm guessing that its not the Environmental Protection Agency.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

16 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Only stat I know offhand is the Offense went from unstoppable in the Redzone to struggling. 

I think it’s the opposite lol have to get to the red zone though 😂

4 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

The reality is Josh is performing nearly at the same level while the defense is battered and injured. Has Allen played without the top 3 players on defense?

The oline looks horrible to me this year…if josh wasn’t as athletic I can’t even imagine how many times he’d be sacked. Weeks 1-4 it really looked like we turned the corner finally but now it looks like we’ve regressed 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Alphadawg7]

17 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

It seems like Allen doesn’t trust the 1st read.  He holds it, scrambles out and tries to make the great play throwing on the run.

 

What happened to snap, 3 step drop and out?

 

He was 17/17 Sunday when he did that too.  

 

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

The offense is not as big of a problem as you think...Weeks 5-7 Bills are 2nd ranked offense in EPA/play next to KC. It's all situational...and the D not getting them enough cracks when they get on fire in the 2nd half of games. First half, they are not good, 2nd half they have been nearly unstoppable...just no help in the 2nd half from the D to get them more possessions.

 

 

 

This is lacking context.  One its heavily skewed by the offensive dominance week 2, 3, and 4.  Week 5 and 6 the offense had 7 points midway through the 4th quarter and week 7 the offense was anemic the whole first half.  

 

So these season total stats don't mean a whole lot when analyzing the most recent games which have been a steep decline since the week 4 game against Miami.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[colin]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He was 17/17 Sunday when he did that too.  

 

 

This is lacking context.  One its heavily skewed by the offensive dominance week 2, 3, and 4.  Week 5 and 6 the offense had 7 points midway through the 4th quarter and week 7 the offense was anemic the whole first half.  

 

So these season total stats don't mean a whole lot when analyzing the most recent games which have been a steep decline since the week 4 game against Miami.

 

i think you misread that alpha.  those offensive numbers are only weeks 5-7!

 

i rewatched some stuff from those games.  the issue is our D is doing what it did in allen's first year here, just getting boat raced constantly.  that was the year mcd stepped in and took duties (from time to time) from frazier.  i really hope he can right this ship like he did that one, because our d is just the worst it's been since then.

 

missing guys or not, we let mc jones dog walk us on like 3 or 4 different drives.  if we are built to stop the big play, we can't just not allow it over the top, we have to do something to prevent it underneath too.  screens and sweeps going for 30 yards due to lack of flowing to the ball is just inexcusable.  it's basic football and our coaches have to get who they have healthy to play it.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

He was 17/17 Sunday when he did that too.  

 

 

This is lacking context.  One its heavily skewed by the offensive dominance week 2, 3, and 4.  Week 5 and 6 the offense had 7 points midway through the 4th quarter and week 7 the offense was anemic the whole first half.  

 

So these season total stats don't mean a whole lot when analyzing the most recent games which have been a steep decline since the week 4 game against Miami.

 

No it's only taking into account weeks 5-7. It has nothing to do with any weeks prior to that.  The title of the chart is literally EPA/Play in weeks 5-7.  

[Don Otreply]

On 10/23/2023 at 9:24 AM, ddaryl said:

Ken is Oil Josh is water.

Dorsey could be a solid OC but Josh is the wrong QB for that Offense

Imo, Dorsey lacks the understanding of how to use his receivers, play design and personnel use is abysmal presently, as a for instance, Kincaid should have most of Knox’s targets, plus his own targets as well, Sheffield has better hands than Davis, which we all know, Dorsey doesn’t know what to do with Harty or Shakir, and we need Josh to run less, not, not run at all,  we need far better execution by the players on top of all of this, something has got to change soon, or we are looking at an eight or nine win season, and a early first round draft pick. 
 

But y’all know me, GO BILLS!!!

Edited October 24, 2023 by Don Otreply

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

No it's only taking into account weeks 5-7. It has nothing to do with any weeks prior to that.  The title of the chart is literally EPA/Play in weeks 5-7.  

 

Ah, gotcha, my apologies, I misread that and thought it was for all 7 weeks, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

Still the scoreboard still doesn't reflect offensive success, especially early in games.  So something needs to change and the slow starts the last 3 weeks against weaker competition is an issue with the tough part of our schedule still to come.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ah, gotcha, my apologies, I misread that and thought it was for all 7 weeks, thanks for clearing that up.  

 

Still the scoreboard still doesn't reflect offensive success, especially early in games.  So something needs to change and the slow starts the last 3 weeks against weaker competition is an issue with the tough part of our schedule still to come.

Punting unnecessarily and Bass missing three field goals in two games and TDs being wiped out with penalties is not helping over the last three games. 

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Punting unnecessarily and Bass missing three field goals in two games and TDs being wiped out with penalties is not helping over the last three games. 

 

Fair points, but that doesn't fully absolve the anemic offense for the last 3 games against the easier part of our schedule.  

[CincyBillsFan]

Talking abut stats here is where the deeply "flawed" Allen stands relative to his peers after 7 games:

 

Allen's rank among QB Starters:

 

Yards passing = #6

 

Passing TD's = tied with Mahomes & Tua for #2

 

Total TD's = #1

 

Regular QB Rating = #6

 

QBR = #3

[machine gun kelly]

23 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Coach McDermott doesn't have issues benching guys when they make key mistakes. Yet Knox keeps getting the start. He needs to ride the bench with Kincaid getting the start. And like you said, 11 personnel seems to give the Bills a better shot.

At this point it doesn’t matter as Knox is getting surgery on his wrist so he’s out.

[Chaos]

55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Fair points, but that doesn't fully absolve the anemic offense for the last 3 games against the easier part of our schedule.  

I think the offense is running in neutered position, because their is a priority to keep the defense off the field as long as possible.  Statistically over the last three games, over the course of full games (second half points still count as points), the Bills are actually one of the top offenses in scores per possession. This includes three missed field goals by Bass.    It is not clear at all that "anemic" is a fair description. 

[Big Turk]

Nobody wants to hear this but the offensive efficiency numbers are almost identical versus last year...and show a high level of efficiency.  Consistency is what we need to start seeing more.  The only team more efficient on a per play basis than the Bills has been Miami.

 

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Big Turk

[Chandler#81]

https://x.com/adlib716/status/1716907850478616681?s=61&t=s-bkdDXJMtQhYqbJSiNmsQ
 

juss sayin’ 🤷‍♂️