Yards after catch anomaly

[Stenbar]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yes...Bills attack vertically while most teams attack horizontally, which gives them more running room on shorter throws.

I see us use a horizontal behind the line attack more than i see us attack vertically downfield. How many times yesterday, did we throw or run side to side behind the LOS? We were in 3rd and long a lot, and yesterday we got away with it due to the man to man coverage allowing Josh to run free for firstdowns. We have fast wr's in Harty and Shorter, all we heard preseason was how they were going to use them to lengthen the field. We are doing the same thing as last year, good thing our oline is much better than last year. Next week will be vedy interesting to watch 2 offenses that can out points up, and see the different in how they attack defenses. I want to see less behind the LOS passes and way more down the field seam passes and deep corner routes. I want to see us attack the gaps between the guard and tackle and tackle End gaps with hard slant runs. 

Just my 2 cents

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

Of anything that I miss or wish we could do a better job at is scheming guys open. Beasley used to almost always be open and that supposed to be what DK was drafted for. 

Anything that keeps chains moving and makes Josh’s life easier is fine with me. Something reliable like short crosses that the other 31 teams use would be nice. Our offense is great but man it requires josh to be incredible or it doesn’t work and it just can’t be all that to win 3 straight playoff games against good teams. Gotta have easy stuff in the playbook too

[Goin Breakdown]

21 minutes ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Anything that keeps chains moving and makes Josh’s life easier is fine with me. Something reliable like short crosses that the other 31 teams use would be nice. Our offense is great but man it requires josh to be incredible or it doesn’t work and it just can’t be all that to win 3 straight playoff games against good teams. Gotta have easy stuff in the playbook too

I agree 100%

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Goin Breakdown said:

So if the Bills get torched by Miami you better believe that this board will be swarming with YAK conversations, and a large body of us will be right in on the conversation. It's not so far fetched to think about given that the players and coaches have been saying that they need to get better at it. 

 

What is the difference between A 20-yard pass with no YAC and a 5 yard pass with 15 yards YAC? Nothing.  Don't conflate not defending after the catch as a need for the Bills to play the yards-after game.

[NoSaint]

5 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

How often do you see Josh hit a wideout in stride?  How often do you see Josh hit a wideout from the pocket or on platform?

 

The team, and fans a like are chasing an invisible monster.  The Bills arent good in YAC because there often isnt any YAC to be had. 

 

As much as I love our Quarterback he isnt a rhythm thrower, and that is the Bills biggest problem when it comes to YAC.

that and Davis is not particularly athletic. So if you have diggs and Knox out there plus diggs… It’s just not a particularly agile or blazing group 

20 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What is the difference between A 20-yard pass with no YAC and a 5 yard pass with 15 yards YAC? Nothing.  Don't conflate not defending after the catch as a need for the Bills to play the yards-after game.

though tua is getting more air yards/attempt too…

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

[Scott7975]

41 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What is the difference between A 20-yard pass with no YAC and a 5 yard pass with 15 yards YAC? Nothing.  Don't conflate not defending after the catch as a need for the Bills to play the yards-after game.

 

The difference is the degree of difficulty of those longer passes with the way defenses are going to play us.  We become a dink and dunk offense and for that offense to work you need YAC to contribute.  Josh is currently 26th in the NFL in completed air yards.  IOW those 20 yard passes aren't happening that often.  It's 0-5 yard passes that are happening now.  To play that kind of game you are in a big hole with every mistake. 

 

This last game Josh was in 3rd and long 10 out of 16 times. Most of those were between 9 and 12 yards to go.  In actuality it was worse than that because some of those third and shorts were while we were chewing clock in the 4th.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Scott7975

[GoBills808]

don't really have guys that are a threat to make plays w the ball in their hands tbh

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

10 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The difference is the degree of difficulty of those longer passes with the way defenses are going to play us.  We become a dink and dunk offense and for that offense to work you need YAC to contribute.  Josh is currently 26th in the NFL in completed air yards.  IOW those 20 yard passes aren't happening that often.  It's 0-5 yard passes that are happening now.  To play that kind of game you are in a big hole with every mistake. 

 

This last game Josh was in 3rd and long 10 out of 16 times. Most of those were between 9 and 12 yards to go.  In actuality it was worse than that because some of those third and shorts were while we were chewing clock in the 4th.

 

And yet the Bills are 2nd in scoring this year.

They were 2nd in 2022...

They were 3rd in 2021...

and they were 2nd in 2020!

 

Maybe this YAC thing isn't a problem?

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What is the difference between A 20-yard pass with no YAC and a 5 yard pass with 15 yards YAC? Nothing.  Don't conflate not defending after the catch as a need for the Bills to play the yards-after game.

I really don't give a crap how they get the yards. I just don't think it's such an outlandish question or statement for the OP to talk about when the team

Itself has talked about it as an issue. I understand  game plan and team philosophy, player strengths and so on   But I'm also not going to be condescending to the OP because he had a thought. 

[NoSaint]

21 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

And yet the Bills are 2nd in scoring this year.

They were 2nd in 2022...

They were 3rd in 2021...

and they were 2nd in 2020!

 

Maybe this YAC thing isn't a problem?

Maybe they’d be first with the extra tool?

[Goin Breakdown]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

don't really have guys that are a threat to make plays w the ball in their hands tbh

 

 

[PromoTheRobot]

22 hours ago, NoSaint said:

Maybe they’d be first with the extra tool?

 

The downside of having Josh Allen is these unreasonable expectations. It's not enough to be a top scoring team. Now every game has to be the Pats playoff game.

Edited September 26, 2023 by PromoTheRobot

[BananaB]

Diggs ain’t really a yac guy and Davis ain’t getting yac unless he gets behind defenders.  The rest we really ain’t sure about. Seems like they are trying to set up Harty but are unsuccessful. 
 

Do teams that get a lot of yac spread the ball around to bunch of different WRs, or is it certain guys get all those yards. Harty, Sherfield and Shakir seem to be the guys who might be able to make an impact there but they aren’t getting many looks and they are all a bit different so it makes it harder to get in rhythm with Allen. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

52 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

And yet the Bills are 2nd in scoring this year.

They were 2nd in 2022...

They were 3rd in 2021...

and they were 2nd in 2020!

 

Maybe this YAC thing isn't a problem?

It isn’t until it is. When those downfield routes aren’t developing, and Allen isn’t in able to push the ball down the field the way he has been, they need a pivot option to be able to manufacture the same result.

 

A running game, quick game, screens, etc. I think what the Bills do offensively is great, but it is no doubt more difficult to execute than quick game. 
 

I don’t want to see them make a large schematic switch, but it would sure be nice not having to start every 1&10 behind the chains. 

[PromoTheRobot]

8 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

It isn’t until it is. When those downfield routes aren’t developing, and Allen isn’t in able to push the ball down the field the way he has been, they need a pivot option to be able to manufacture the same result.

 

A running game, quick game, screens, etc. I think what the Bills do offensively is great, but it is no doubt more difficult to execute than quick game. 
 

I don’t want to see them make a large schematic switch, but it would sure be nice not having to start every 1&10 behind the chains. 

 

So why aren't teams with better YAC numbers outscoring the Bills? 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

6 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

So why aren't teams with better YAC numbers outscoring the Bills? 

Comparing the Bills PPG to other teams numbers isn’t the point I was making.

 

Weighing offensive production of our team against Washington vs any other team vs a different defense doesn’t accurately reflect what we see on a weekly basis. 
 

Obviously each game happens in a vacuum, and when the game starts, it doesn’t matter how many points you scored last week or all season. My point was simply that when they’re in a rut, I hope they have the scheme and/or horses to take the load off of Allen’s back and find a different way to win. 

[Dr.Sack]

Need to get guys on crosses, screens and deep shots with YAC.

[PBF81]

8 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

We all watch other teams play aside from the Bills. We’re able to see teams hit WRs in stride and make big plays. 
 

meanwhile our big plays are stationary catches. 20 yard strikes to a Knox on his knees or a zone sitting Diggs who rolls for another yard. 
 

Diggs was ranked 26th in YAC last year. Dont get me wrong, Josh is amazing at hitting stationary targets. But when it comes to guys on the run, he tends to put it into their chest. I still can’t figure out why this hasn’t been addressed. It’s been a thing since his first year. 

 

Diggs was ranked 14th last season in YAC among WRs.  

 

He had 419 YAC on 1,429 total receiving yards.   29.3%   Only one of the WRs before him had a lower percentage, Hill, 28.2%. 

 

Diggs ranked 4th among WRs for YBC.  He ranked 22nd among WRs for YBC/Recpt.  

 

Guess who ranked 1st among WRs in YBC/Recpt.?  

 

Diggs ranked 49th among WRs in Avg. Depth of Target when targeted.  

 

We weren't good with broken tackles.  Diggs ranked 42nd among WRs.  Our next best was Shakir at 74th.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

The downside of having Josh Allen is these unreasonable expectations. It's not enough to be a top scoring team. Now every game to be the Pats playoff game.

you celebrated mediocrity for decades. I’m sure you are beyond your wildest expectations right now. 
 

sure would’ve been nice to be a little better at a few things the last couple years and maybe gotten a parade or two. 

[quinnearlysghost88]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What is the difference between A 20-yard pass with no YAC and a 5 yard pass with 15 yards YAC? Nothing.  Don't conflate not defending after the catch as a need for the Bills to play the yards-after game.

Opportunity. A comeback route’s YAC opportunity is low. Hitting a WR in stride has a potential for missed tackles and more YAC. One gives you a chance for big plays the other methodically marches you down the field but makes you make more throws. 

[PromoTheRobot]

8 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

you celebrated mediocrity for decades. I’m sure you are beyond your wildest expectations right now. 
 

sure would’ve been nice to be a little better at a few things the last couple years and maybe gotten a parade or two. 

 

I rest my case.

6 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Opportunity. A comeback route’s YAC opportunity is low. Hitting a WR in stride has a potential for missed tackles and more YAC. One gives you a chance for big plays the other methodically marches you down the field but makes you make more throws. 

 

But if the net result at the end of a game, what's the difference? Again, if teams with superior YAC are so much better why aren't they outperforming the Bills? (Miami being the obvious one this year.) The Bills get their yards through the air because our QB can throw it anywhere.

[Buffalo716]

16 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I rest my case.

 

But if the net result at the end of a game, what's the difference? Again, if teams with superior YAC are so much better why aren't they outperforming the Bills? (Miami being the obvious one this year.) The Bills get their yards through the air because our QB can throw it anywhere.

And the bills are also top 10 in yac rn

[BeavercreekBillsFan]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

It isn’t until it is. When those downfield routes aren’t developing, and Allen isn’t in able to push the ball down the field the way he has been, they need a pivot option to be able to manufacture the same result.

 

A running game, quick game, screens, etc. I think what the Bills do offensively is great, but it is no doubt more difficult to execute than quick game. 
 

I don’t want to see them make a large schematic switch, but it would sure be nice not having to start every 1&10 behind the chains. 

Perfectly said. When teams take away the big plays in the playoffs, we will be wishing for something easy for josh. Or hell, if there’s bad weather, it’d be nice to have easy stuff to rely on and not just long developing, high difficulty throws. 

[PromoTheRobot]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

And the bills are also top 10 in yac rn

 

LOOK!! Another one celebrating mediocrity!!

 

[Buffalo716]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

LOOK!! Another one celebrating mediocrity!!

 

What? 

[PromoTheRobot]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

What? 

 

One of my long time fans.

 

 

 

[Buffalo716]

13 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

One of my long time fans.

 

 

 

Go Bills and Bulls

[ProcessTruster]

Our QB is a dart thower.  I'll take that.  

[dickleyjones]

Now that we are doing the short game, we are getting more yac.

 

What's the problem?

[Matt_In_NH]

Every player is unique and finds ways to be successful in different ways.  I have heard Josh described as a "sometimes see it throw it quarterback" and I think that is accurate.  He does not throw with anticipation as much as other quarterbacks do.  He holds the ball, creates time, finds a guy open standing in a hole and hits him.  For whatever reason this team cannot succeed on short passes/screen passes where you let playmakers get in space and have them do their thing.   I do think there is opportunity for Josh to take his game to the next level by succeeding with those type of passes more often.  I cannot say it is his fault or the plays or how defenses play the Bills.  I know if anyone says Josh can improve on something it does not go over well here, he is only perfect and any time the play does not work its because the receiver dropped the ball or the play call was bad.  I see an potentially even higher ceiling for Josh than he has achieved.

[Big Turk]

15 hours ago, Stenbar said:

I see us use a horizontal behind the line attack more than i see us attack vertically downfield. How many times yesterday, did we throw or run side to side behind the LOS? We were in 3rd and long a lot, and yesterday we got away with it due to the man to man coverage allowing Josh to run free for firstdowns. We have fast wr's in Harty and Shorter, all we heard preseason was how they were going to use them to lengthen the field. We are doing the same thing as last year, good thing our oline is much better than last year. Next week will be vedy interesting to watch 2 offenses that can out points up, and see the different in how they attack defenses. I want to see less behind the LOS passes and way more down the field seam passes and deep corner routes. I want to see us attack the gaps between the guard and tackle and tackle End gaps with hard slant runs. 

Just my 2 cents

 

Depends on what the defense is doing...if they are determined to take away deeper throws, then we are going to have to throw shorter and run effectively to loosen that up. Essentially we need to be patient until the defense gets impatient.

15 hours ago, BeavercreekBillsFan said:

Then let’s call some simple short crossers that act as de facto pick routes on 3rd and 4th and short like every other team does. They’re simple and virtually unstoppable and lead to big gains. My biggest gripe with Dorsey’s offense is how difficult he schemes things up for josh and never gives him the easy stuff. 

 

Maybe there is a reason for that?  Maybe Josh throws the ball too hot and they end up getting ricocheted and deflected up and that would be an area of the field where there are a lot of defenders. Maybe defenders are ready to knock those down?  Allen was having a LOT of batted passes early last year and I believe that was when they were attempting to throw more inside short stuff.

 

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

11 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I rest my case.

 

But if the net result at the end of a game, what's the difference? Again, if teams with superior YAC are so much better why aren't they outperforming the Bills? (Miami being the obvious one this year.) The Bills get their yards through the air because our QB can throw it anywhere.

Can he? Hes currently ranked 13th in yards. I think you need to take a step back and look at the last three games. Our passing offense is not hitting right now. 
 

there was a point when Diggs maybe hurt his wrist on Sunday and just the thought of Davis being our WR1 was devastating. 

[PromoTheRobot]

44 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

Can he? Hes currently ranked 13th in yards. I think you need to take a step back and look at the last three games. Our passing offense is not hitting right now. 
 

there was a point when Diggs maybe hurt his wrist on Sunday and just the thought of Davis being our WR1 was devastating. 

 

I don't get this at all. Josh is 3rd in comp% 72.7! Bills are 2nd in scoring! How is that bad?? I wasn't kidding about expectations getting ridiculous lately. We think Josh is Superman and 72% is bad!

[quinnearlysghost88]

58 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I don't get this at all. Josh is 3rd in comp% 72.7! Bills are 2nd in scoring! How is that bad?? I wasn't kidding about expectations getting ridiculous lately. We think Josh is Superman and 72% is bad!

what’s the tipping point where accuracy doesn’t matter vs yards per pass. His accuracy is great but he’s lost his long ball almost completely. 
 

if the passing game somehow explodes vs Miami, I’ll eat crow. But something tells me it isn’t happening. 72% and 218 yards is not going to fly vs real teams. 
 

 

 

[skibum]

A lot of the lack of YAC yards is because our leading receiver isn't that great at it.  Diggs' first instinct is to juke and dink and dunk, instead of just committing to a line and hitting the jets. Trying to fake tacklers out when he could just be running past them.

[Jon in Pasadena]

17 hours ago, NoSaint said:

that and Davis is not particularly athletic. So if you have diggs and Knox out there plus diggs… It’s just not a particularly agile or blazing group 

though tua is getting more air yards/attempt too…

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php

 

I dunno, having two Diggs out there at once sounds pretty good to me. Sign me up!

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

what’s the tipping point where accuracy doesn’t matter vs yards per pass. His accuracy is great but he’s lost his long ball almost completely. 
 

if the passing game somehow explodes vs Miami, I’ll eat crow. But something tells me it isn’t happening. 72% and 218 yards is not going to fly vs real teams. 
 

 

The Bills are doing what we all wanted them to do...NOT TO PUT IT ALL ON JOSH!  We have a run game. That's going to cut into Allen's numbers. We also want Allen to avoid turnovers. So he's not forcing the ball and just taking what the defense gives. The results are the same: points on the board.  Last I checked points not passing yards win games.

 

As for Miami's inflated numbers, I'm very curious to see how "balls out" they are against our defense.  Running up the score on an outclassed team doesn't make you more amazing.

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

what’s the tipping point where accuracy doesn’t matter vs yards per pass. His accuracy is great but he’s lost his long ball almost completely. 
 

if the passing game somehow explodes vs Miami, I’ll eat crow. But something tells me it isn’t happening. 72% and 218 yards is not going to fly vs real teams. 
 

 

 

He has thrown like 3 deep balls lol

 

You have surmised in your infinite wisdom that he has lost his deep ball because he chucked a few up in double coverage LOL

[quinnearlysghost88]

17 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

He has thrown like 3 deep balls lol

 

You have surmised in your infinite wisdom that he has lost his deep ball because he chucked a few up in double coverage LOL

No I’ve surmised he’s lost his long ball bc teams have countered it and play two deep shells. Even bad teams know to just roll safeties over diggs and Davis. We are way less dynamic and it’s showing. You have to be a real homer to not admit we’re pinned into small ball. 

[Royale with Cheese]

7 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

No I’ve surmised he’s lost his long ball bc teams have countered it and play two deep shells. Even bad teams know to just roll safeties over diggs and Davis. We are way less dynamic and it’s showing. You have to be a real homer to not admit we’re pinned into small ball. 

 

Josh has had two high safety looks for years now lol.  Do you think it just happened this year or something?