Ed Oliver big extension

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

I know that's important and you need to fill a roster

 

I like this a little better now but still have concerns...not about Oliver per se because he's a good player, more the philosophy that these types of deals for his caliber of player represents

[BADOLBILZ]

5 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Just because of all the snap count talk I was looking into it and from mid season on nobody played more snaps on the D line than Oliver and he actually averaged 70 percent per game the second half of the season.  Seeing how he was injured the first half it stands to reason he played less then.  More than Hargrove or Cox over the second half of the season.   About on par with Reader but not as many as Hill or Jones.  I think Reader is a great comparison actually.  The money is similar the play is similar.  About where it lies for me.  A middle of the road contract for a solid player with a hint of upside left at his age.  If we resigned him at 21 or 22 mil a year like Hargrove or Payne I'd feel a lot worse about it.  Sign a big bodied DT to play beside him he plays the role of penetrating DT pretty well and stands a good chance of playing up to the dollar value of what we signed him at.

 

https://www.footballguys.com/stats/snap-counts/teams?team=BUF&year=2022

 

 

 

 

Like I said.......he's averaged just a bit under 56% and played 60% of the snaps IN THE GAMES HE DIDN'T MISS ENTIRELY last season(he missed 3 entirely).   He's not being unfairly judged because of injury he actually only played around 50% of the teams total defensive snaps last year.

 

And 70% of snaps played isn't any kind of standard.......it's something someone in this thread made up as a figure they think is a gold standard.

 

The standard of the best DT's 80%+ snaps OR outrageous production on less than 80% of snaps.

 

 The 3 DT's picked right after Ed Oliver all played OVER 80% of the snaps last season and had a whopping 300-400+ more snaps than Ed's feeble 527.  

 

Quinnen Williams is used more like Ed Oliver and only played 690 snaps last year but he put up 12 sacks and 28 QB hits to Ed's meager 2.5 sacks and 14 QB hits.    

 

Ed's something of a taint.    He aint an every down, high production DT like his draft classmates Wilkins, Lawrence or Simmons........but his actual production is also pathetic compared to guys like Quinnen or Hargrave who play less than 80% but do it in a dominant fashion.

 

But Ed is being paid second only to Aaron Donald on a per snap basis based on his career average of 570 snaps per season(which forgives his particularly low snap counts last season to an extent).

 

 Oliver gets a few more hits on the QB than Poona Ford but his sack and tackle production is very much like $2M Poona Ford in recent years.    Poona also plays about mid 50% of his teams snaps but he also plays a lot more 1T or NT position where he gets less chances to shoot gaps and has more run responsibility than Ed Oliver typically does.    

 

This Oliver contract is a MASSIVE overpay based on what Oliver has shown so far.    That's the bottom line.   Maybe he is an instance where a player gets paid by a team anticipating a huge improvement in his play and he actually does that.   He's talented so maybe.   But based on what he's done it's a terrible deal.

[freddyjj]

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2010, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

Edited June 6 by freddyjj

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2011, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

Yes but how many snaps did he play?  

[Royale with Cheese]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2011, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

 

If he does, you will be the main reason why.

[Warcodered]

 

[Shaw66]

Oliver's press conference is interesting.  He isn't the best speaker, but he's genuine.   You can tell how confident he is.  Solid guy. 

 

Best part is the end.   Someone asked him about whether he's accomplished all he hoped, and he said "we have everything, but we don't have the hardware.  We have the oline, we have the dline, we have the coach, we have the owner."   HE said he wants to win a lot of Super Bowls.  It was cool.  

 

This team is all in.  Love it. 

[Green Lightning]

23 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

guess you still miss the part that he was double teamed all game. He was basically playing the role of a 1 tech. that is what they do. take on double teams.

Guess you missed the regular season where he impacted not much. Hey if he gets a burst and penetrates he can be successful.  If not, he gets ragdolled by the OL. There's been plenty of games he dissappears.

[Shaw66]

29 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Yes but how many snaps did he play?  

2795 for Kyle.  2284 for Ed.   Really very similar production. 

[freddyjj]

58 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

If he does, you will be the main reason why.

There is a portal from my keyboard to God’s ears 😎

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

2795 for Kyle.  2284 for Ed.   Really very similar production. 

No doubt ........... was saying the same thing.

 

 

[John from Riverside]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And means they are not at 0 DTs under contract for 2024.

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

[PrimeTime101]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

Big One Tech guy, they say he has gained some more weight.. This is going to force a double team often enough to let Oliver be one on one.. And then when Von is back... Who you double team then? 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Exactly
I still think that there is an extension for DaQuan Jones on the way. He played way too well last year in order not to do that.

 

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to. 

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is way too old and replacebale to extend him before the season IMO. He did play well last year but he is a guy who you will have no issue extending after the season and before FA if you wish to. 

Only to free up more money for DHop…

 

Right? 
 

 

[FireChans]

7 hours ago, freddyjj said:

Just some perspective on Ed Oliver.  Let's compare him to another undersized former Bills DT, Kyle Williams after 4 years in the league.

 

Games Started: Williams 57 > Oliver 53.
Total Tackles: Williams 215 > Oliver 151..

TFLs: Williams 32  > Oliver 30,

Sacks: Williams 8 < Oliver 14.5

QB Hits:  Williams 29 <  Oliver 42

 

 Williams received an early extension in July 2008 for 3 years at $14.4mm total.  In 2011 he recieved another 6 year extension for $40mm with $17mm guaranteed.  

 

I guess given the similar numbers in their first 4 years the Oliver signing is understandable.  It was in 2010, his 5th year that Williams was named a Pro Bowl and 2nd Team All Pro.  Might we see the same from Ed Oliver this year?

I don’t think anyone would complain if Oliver got 3 years for 14M lol.

 

What you demonstrated here was a massive difference in compensation 

[Cash]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I don’t think anyone would complain if Oliver got 3 years for 14M lol.

 

What you demonstrated here was a massive difference in compensation 

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

[PrimeTime101]

2 minutes ago, Cash said:

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

it is a big difference. Spend time at Spotrac and you would see, just by fiddling with numbers. 

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Cash said:

Is it, though? How do they compare in terms of highest-paid DTs or % of cap? Especially over the first 3 years of EdO’s deal, since the Bills can get out of it easily at that point. 

 

Percentage of cap Kyle's AAV in 2008 was about 4%. Ed's AAV as a % now is about 7%. 

[BullBuchanan]

23 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I disagree that 5 of the 6 positions I said we improved at was just adding depth.  I'd say we're now better at 6 of 7 starting positions I mentioned (TE2, LG, DT, DE, WR3, RB) with the signing of Floyd.  I'll grant you that we only added depth at safety. Just simplifying for one on one comparisons with everyone else coming back at these positions....

 

Kincaid>Morris, McGovern>Saffold, Ford>Settle, Floyd>Basham, Harty>McKenzie, Harris>Singletary

 

I understand your point that we're relying on veterans to regain their previous form and young players to play to their full potential at certain positions.  However, what's the alternative?  Who would you have drafted instead of Kincaid that would guarantee us a better player at a premier position?  Jack Campbell was off the board.  Who would you have signed at safety that would be an upgrade over Poyer?

 

There's definitely a case to be made that it would've been smarter to re-sign Edmunds and let Oliver play out his final year of his contract.  That's fair and I can see both sides to that argument.  The problem I had with your post is the suggestion that Beane is tanking this season on purpose despite no evidence at all to suggest he is.  There's nothing he's done this offseason that points to that even if you disagree with his team building approach.

 

I guess I don't consider TE2 and DT 3/4, DE3 and RB2 starting positions. Harty is in no way an "upgrade" over mckenzie until he proves it. 4 TDs and under 800 yards over 4 years makes him effectively a 25 year old second year player if you add his whole career together. I'm also not ready to pencil in McGovern as an immediate upgrade either. He has severe flaws in his game that we've glazed over because of how poorly Saffold performed. I like the floyd signing, but again, it's depth. Kincaid will be fun to watch, but I'm not expecting a rookie TE starting the season at #2 or #3 to be much of a factor at all - certainly not more than a high end #2 WR would have been. Harris is a fine committee back, but nothing about him is special. He'll get some touches and TDs because somebody's gotta, but he's not going to take over football games.

"Tanking" is a very strong word, and not one I agree with. I don't believe Beane is intentionally trying to lose. I do believe that he's not doing everything he can to win, because he's said as much, and I don't think the moves that he's made put us in any better position to win than last year or the year before. I don't see most of the guys he's brought in as difference makers, more like B/C-tier free agent role players.

We don't have enough talent at RB1, TE1, WR2, MLB,  or DL (despite our insane investments there). The only real threat we have either side of the ball to an opposing team is Allen to Diggs. You take any part of that away and we're toast. We've seen it in the playoffs for 3 years now. That connection evaporates in January when the real gameplans come out and we have no response. Milano is a beat and I love him, but he's not Ray Lewis or Brian Urlacher. He won't drag Rex Grossman or Trent Dilfer to a Super Bowl.

Watching KC play last year with a one-legged Mahomes was illuminating. They have a seemingly endless parade of players who have no problem throwing the team on their back and stepping up to make big plays. Despite not being a team of all-pros, they play amazing situational football, and a lot of that is probably coaching. We already know that they run the worst play in football (the shovel pass) better than any other team in the league, so maybe like Belichick used to, Reid is just that good at getting the best out of guys that aren't perfect.

McDermott and co seem to be much more of a "beat the man across from you" type of coach that will have to rely on his team having a significant enough talent and effort advantage to overcome his opponent.

17 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

One thing I know for sure is that Beane knows one heck of a lot more about where the Bills are in relation to the Cap both now and in the years to come than anyone on this Message Board. It’s just one of the reasons why I stay away from that topic. It’s way too complicated and we really have no idea what other chess moves are in the offing. So…I’m guessing there’s more to the Oliver extension than most of us think or know. 

I may not be a GM, but I'd bet a lot of money against Beane that we'd save more cap by not having Oliver on the team than giving him a $17M/year contract.