Hopkins released by Arizona (7/16: signed by Titans)

[GoBills808]

7 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

I'm just laughing that we (or some) decided that JUJU was a good WR now. Carry on.

If he's not a good WR then what are we supposed to call Davis?

[JohnBonhamRocks]

20 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

This is kind of a point that I heard on the radio. The Bills seem to be one step behind the chiefs because they are mimicking. Idk if I subscribe to that or not but it's a thought. They do call it a copy cat league. 

It’s gotta be a balance. You can’t be them obviously. Gotta have your own identity. At the same time, no shame in trying to be like the champs.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

8 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

I'm just laughing that we (or some) decided that JUJU was a good WR now. Carry on.

Don’t think he’s amazing but he did put up 78 catches, 933 yards, and 3 TDs. Also has a 70.1% career catch percentage.
 

Davis had 30 fewer catches yet still 863 yards and 7 TDs, but has a 54.1% career catch percentage. 
 

Juju strikes me as in the range of WR2-1B production and skill. Davis is weird because I feel he can be anywhere from WR1B-3. 

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

By the way, any word on any team signing Hopkins?  Haven’t seen any press, It appears there isn’t much demand for him at his asking price. 

 

He doesn't really want to sign with the Cheaters or Titans.  Otherwise he would have already.  He may just have to if he's mostly interested in money.

[Dopey]

On 6/20/2023 at 9:54 AM, uticaclub said:

How many points did we score against the Bengals in the playoffs?

That game doesn’t negate the fact we were 2nd in points scored. Just like your question doesn’t negate my point. Again, bi tching to b itch. Either that or you missed my point. Nah. I’ll go with the first. 

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

He doesn't really want to sign with the Cheaters or Titans.  Otherwise he would have already.  He may just have to if he's mostly interested in money.

 

I think they were the ones offering the most money. But he was hoping a better team would have saw him take those visits and up their offer. But that didn't happen and I don't think it's going to happen. Now he's in a holding pattern deciding what's more important - the money or playing on a winning team. I think he ultimately signs with one of them because one or both will pull their offer eventually knowing they're being leveraged and the teams like us are offering far less.

[maddenboy]

13 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

It’s a contract, they can’t change it without him agreeing to the change.  That’s just the law you must get their sign off to do any changes even ones that are positive for the other party otherwise you could be considered in breach of contract.  Besides that it’s just common sense you tell the person you’re changing the contract and most people (because we are people) give a reason why. Not every person runs it like BB and is as nice as sandpaper on sensitive skin. 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

He's always been very inconsistent at getting open and in the end is average as WR's go. Steeler fans were never sold on him as a whole either. Certainly more frustration than joy with him. Limited speed, explosiveness and dedication to the game at times. Pretty dang good hands though! Pretty much defines average. a middle of the pack #2.

 

If we're looking to set expectations of the Bills #2 (Whom I think will be Kincaid before too terribly long) I would hope we can find a better example. That's all.

 

Career averages:

 

Gabe.............42 yards per game and 54% catch rate

JuJu..............60 yards per game and 70% catch rate

 

Vague criticisms of his play aren't a substitute for the fact that there is a big difference in quality of target between the two.

 

Is Juju as good as Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith?   No, but he's closer to them than Gabe is to him.   And in a full season his career averages are going to put him in the top 25 yardage producers(24th last year fwiw) more often than not......while also catching most of his targets.    Top 25 and doing it efficiently is,  in fact, good.  

 

If Kincaid puts up a Juju-like 900+ yards and a high catch rate as a rookie as option 2 to another strong Diggs season then the Bills will have closed the gap between them and other top contenders and rivals in this regard.

 

 

[JerseyBills]

7 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Sherfield also had 14 fewer targets.  Primarily because he had 2 really good WRs on the field at the same time.

And so do we. Davis might not be Waddle. But considering our TEs vs Miami, playmaker wise..

I think it's pretty even 

[Nextmanup]

I hear Hopkins has been released!  Did we sign him yet?

 

And if not, why not?

 

 

[Dopey]

I say we should have kept the other thread going. I mean, it was soooo close to reaching 300 pages. Dammit, mods!!

Dear D-Hop, 

Just sign with someone already. Please. 

[SWATeam]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Career averages:

 

Gabe.............42 yards per game and 54% catch rate

JuJu..............60 yards per game and 70% catch rate

 

Vague criticisms of his play aren't a substitute for the fact that there is a big difference in quality of target between the two.

 

Is Juju as good as Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith?   No, but he's closer to them than Gabe is to him.   And in a full season his career averages are going to put him in the top 25 yardage producers(24th last year fwiw) more often than not......while also catching most of his targets.    Top 25 and doing it efficiently is,  in fact, good.  

 

If Kincaid puts up a Juju-like 900+ yards and a high catch rate as a rookie as option 2 to another strong Diggs season then the Bills will have closed the gap between them and other top contenders and rivals in this regard.

 

 

All this catch rate talk is absurd and lacking context.  Obviously a guy that works the slot with a much lower ADOT is going to have a higher catch rate than someone that works deep.

[34-78-83]

10 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Career averages:

 

Gabe.............42 yards per game and 54% catch rate

JuJu..............60 yards per game and 70% catch rate

 

Vague criticisms of his play aren't a substitute for the fact that there is a big difference in quality of target between the two.

 

Is Juju as good as Tee Higgins or Jaylen Waddle or DeVonta Smith?   No, but he's closer to them than Gabe is to him.   And in a full season his career averages are going to put him in the top 25 yardage producers(24th last year fwiw) more often than not......while also catching most of his targets.    Top 25 and doing it efficiently is,  in fact, good.  

 

If Kincaid puts up a Juju-like 900+ yards and a high catch rate as a rookie as option 2 to another strong Diggs season then the Bills will have closed the gap between them and other top contenders and rivals in this regard.

 

 

I wasn't really saying anything about Gabe. Just that Juju ain't it. I don't think Kincaid will quite get there to #2 status in year 1. I think Gabe is a fantastic #3. Gotta make it work by hitting the open man in this offense instead of opting deep all the time when there are underneath options. Knox will help too,

22 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

All this catch rate talk is absurd and lacking context.  Obviously a guy that works the slot with a much lower ADOT is going to have a higher catch rate than someone that works deep.

That is also a good point... how they are utilized makes a difference.

[Fleezoid]

[JaCrispy]

9 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

I wasn't really saying anything about Gabe. Just that Juju ain't it. I don't think Kincaid will quite get there to #2 status in year 1. I think Gabe is a fantastic #3. Gotta make it work by hitting the open man in this offense instead of opting deep all the time when there are underneath options. Knox will help too,

That is also a good point... how they are utilized makes a difference.

The team is forced to using him the way they do because his skill set is limited…

 

Thats why I had mentioned earlier that his low catch rate is due to a combination of hands and lack of athleticism (meaning he is not quick twitch, to be able to give him easier routes)…👍

 

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by JaCrispy

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

All this catch rate talk is absurd and lacking context.  Obviously a guy that works the slot with a much lower ADOT is going to have a higher catch rate than someone that works deep.

 

That's why I am weighing bulk production with catch rate.   Last year Juju produced more yardage but also caught 77% versus Davis 52%.   Juju had 8 more targets than Gabe and just 23 of his 101 total weren't caught.   Gabe was a ghastly 48 of 93.  He had 45 passes un-caught.  That's a crazy disparity in the amount of wasted downs between a teams #2 options.  It stands to reason that your offense is going to be less consistent and vulnerable to peaks and valleys when your second option is that guy.  

 

Of course Gabe is a different kind of receiver.........and that kind of receiver needs to be WR3 for a SB contender.   That's a lesson that Green Bay never learned with a guy like Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  They thought he was fine as the HR option opposite the league's top producing WR in Adams.   The Chiefs picked MVS up and installed him as the clear 3rd option....along with a deep cast of subsequent options.......and won a SB.   I think the people who defend Davis as an excellent option 2 really don't understand the similarity between Davis and MVS and what it should tell them.   Green Bay laid out this gameplan for failure for over a decade........an over-emphasis on defense at the expense of receiving weapons when you have an elite QB.         

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, 34-78-83 said:

I wasn't really saying anything about Gabe. Just that Juju ain't it. I don't think Kincaid will quite get there to #2 status in year 1. I think Gabe is a fantastic #3. Gotta make it work by hitting the open man in this offense instead of opting deep all the time when there are underneath options. Knox will help too,

That is also a good point... how they are utilized makes a difference.

 

 

Yep,  I love Gabe Davis as a clear 3rd option.   Like a 60 targets guy.   He's like having a power hitter batting 4th.   The idea is to load the bases with the top options and then, when there is nowhere to put him,  the pitcher has to throw him strikes which raises his batting average 100+ points.    That's Gabe........he needs the attention of the defense focused elsewhere so he can get favorable matchups..........and he has the deep ball skills to take advantage of those situations.   

 

I think people get confused about his playoff performances and think that indicates that there is something else there that he just isn't showing in the regular season.   I don't think that's the case.   He is what he is.........inconsistent but a HR threat.   

[Reed83HOF]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yep,  I love Gabe Davis as a clear 3rd option.   Like a 60 targets guy.   He's like having a power hitter batting 4th.   The idea is to load the bases with the top options and then, when there is nowhere to put him,  the pitcher has to throw him strikes which raises his batting average 100+ points.    That's Gabe........he needs the attention of the defense focused elsewhere so he can get favorable matchups..........and he has the deep ball skills to take advantage of those situations.   

 

I think people get confused about his playoff performances and think that indicates that there is something else there that he just isn't showing in the regular season.   I don't think that's the case.   He is what he is.........inconsistent but a HR threat.   

💯 

 

I can't count on a rookie this season to develop enough as a consistent force, I would love Hopkins on a 2 year deal to bridge the gap. While I think Davis is a fine 3,  I'm not about paying him 12 to 14 million a year for that catch rate. I don't think a high ankle sprain hindered his ability to actually catch the ball. There is a stat or article somewhere about the key to winning in the playoffs is WR2. 

[SWATeam]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

That's why I am weighing bulk production with catch rate.   Last year Juju produced more yardage but also caught 77% versus Davis 52%.   Juju had 8 more targets than Gabe and just 23 of his 101 total weren't caught.   Gabe was a ghastly 48 of 93.  He had 45 passes un-caught.  That's a crazy disparity in the amount of wasted downs between a teams #2 options.  It stands to reason that your offense is going to be less consistent and vulnerable to peaks and valleys when your second option is that guy.  

 

Of course Gabe is a different kind of receiver.........and that kind of receiver needs to be WR3 for a SB contender.   That's a lesson that Green Bay never learned with a guy like Marquez Valdes-Scantling.  They thought he was fine as the HR option opposite the league's top producing WR in Adams.   The Chiefs picked MVS up and installed him as the clear 3rd option....along with a deep cast of subsequent options.......and won a SB.   I think the people who defend Davis as an excellent option 2 really don't understand the similarity between Davis and MVS and what it should tell them.   Green Bay laid out this gameplan for failure for over a decade........an over-emphasis on defense at the expense of receiving weapons when you have an elite QB.         

I'm saying that simply weighing bulk production with catch rate doesn't tell the story.  Gabe's average depth of target was 5th in the league at 15.3 yards per target.  And Gabe had more CATCHES than anyone above him on that list even had targets.  Compare that to JuJu's average depth of target being 7.3 yards- good for 117th in the league.

 

There is obviously going to be a much higher catch percentage on the types of passes JuJu was targeted with vs. Davis.

 

Maybe there is credence to the idea that Gabe just isn't good enough to run a diverse tree.  But I think the problem more lies with the Bills offensive philosophy.  This "bombs away" backyard football approach is high variance.  I'd like to see a more consistent approach with quick hitting plays that run on-time.  I'm tired of the highlight reel hurdles and amazing scramble drill plays.  Everything just always looks so difficult. 

 

The biggest head scratcher last year was the obvious emphasis at signing multiple pass catching backs only to never use them.  We went after McKissic, signed Duke Johnson, drafted Cook, traded for HInes.  It was bizarre.  I don't know if this is an OC problem or Josh problem but I'd guess a bit of both.  Josh seems allergic to taking what's there at times and I don't think Dorsey had the chops to reign him in.

 

[GoBills808]

33 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

I'm saying that simply weighing bulk production with catch rate doesn't tell the story.  Gabe's average depth of target was 5th in the league at 15.3 yards per target.  And Gabe had more CATCHES than anyone above him on that list even had targets.  Compare that to JuJu's average depth of target being 7.3 yards- good for 117th in the league.

 

There is obviously going to be a much higher catch percentage on the types of passes JuJu was targeted with vs. Davis.

 

Maybe there is credence to the idea that Gabe just isn't good enough to run a diverse tree.  But I think the problem more lies with the Bills offensive philosophy.  This "bombs away" backyard football approach is high variance.  I'd like to see a more consistent approach with quick hitting plays that run on-time.  I'm tired of the highlight reel hurdles and amazing scramble drill plays.  Everything just always looks so difficult. 

 

The biggest head scratcher last year was the obvious emphasis at signing multiple pass catching backs only to never use them.  We went after McKissic, signed Duke Johnson, drafted Cook, traded for HInes.  It was bizarre.  I don't know if this is an OC problem or Josh problem but I'd guess a bit of both.  Josh seems allergic to taking what's there at times and I don't think Dorsey had the chops to reign him in.

 

So you want to change one of the best offenses in the league to suit Davis