AFC Post Draft Tiers

[corta765]

Aight here is where I got the AFC at this point in terms of Tiers heading into 2023. If I am feeling lucky I will post the NFC tomorrow. Comment, disagree, hate on it, lets get wild!

 

Immovable Object:

Kansas City Chiefs- Lets be honest until otherwise the AFC goes through KC and they are in every other teams way.

 

SB Contenders:

Buffalo Bills- A quiet reload this offseason compared to last year. They seem to have beefed up both lines after getting kicked in the teeth vs CIN and focused on giving Josh the receiving option he missed big time last year for short-medium options. The question now is whether Dorsey can maximize these new additions and bring back some of the simple staples on offense that made the unit so dynamic in 20 & 21.

Cincinnati Bengals- Lou is back as the DC which is probably the most important thing for CIN. Otherwise minor tweaks and Higgins isn't leaving. Burrow's contract needs to be completed and is a major thing as CIN is notoriously poor and doesn't do things like this. How that is handled will probably impact the team more then people say.

 

Solid Teams But With A Question Mark or Two:

New York Jets- Aaron Rodgers had a down year or maybe started regressing last season. Regardless if he was the Jets QB they would've been a playoff team with that stat line, that is how bad the QB play has been for NY. I am not as high as some that this is a SB contender as the defense will regress a bit which is natural after a good year and the offense needs to prove it can be middle of the road. Biggest question is if the coaching staff can do its part to not screw it up.

Miami Dolphins- When healthy Tua is a superb QB and that offense moves like a Ferrari, even as an opposing fan it was fun to watch. He has missed 4 games each of the past two seasons and last years concussions were borderline terrifying. Can Tua stay healthy a full season? Can the defense with Fangio improve to the top half after being 24th last year? I am not sure any team in the AFC has a wider range of outcomes then Miami honestly.

Baltimore Ravens- Speaking of hurt QBs Lamar is back for 5 years and a ton of money. They finally have given him some true pass catchers albeit lets see what ODB actually has left as reports vary on how healthy the knee is. The defense is always pretty good, but the major question is whether Harbaugh can see his offense evolve into a true passing attack in a league that favors passing and if Lamar can himself stay healthy. When healthy BAL's offense has been a high performing unit, but the last two years worth of injuries force uncomfortable questions on Lamar. 

Jacksonville Jaguars- I do not think they are actually as good as the three above them, but the division is so bad I can see them going 12-5 just simply because their schedule is so light even while playing a first place schedule they still face the NFC South. Trevor took a solid step last year, lets see if the evolution continues now that he has competent coaching.

 

The Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers- No team in the NFL is more confusing. They have a franchise QB, talent in many of the right places that you would want, and a coach who at times has shown some smart decisions bucking conservative trends that have troubled coaches forever. They also have somehow made one playoff game in 3 years which they blew a 27-0 lead, the same said coach played his starters in a game that meant nothing getting two of them hurt, they have no homefield advantage, they historically are cheap as a franchise, and have had the worst injury luck that exists (although I blame some of that on medical malpractice ie: Tyrod Taylor). Every year a bunch analysts say this team could be 12-5/13-4 and the best in the AFC, maybe it will happen or maybe they will keep doing what they have been doing and border on the playoffs leaving everyone asking WTF is happening over there.

 

If Everything Falls Right Playoffs Are Possible, But Realistically They Are Closer To The Draft

Cleveland Browns- Talent exists here but they tied their horse to a QB who played a total of six games in three years and in those six games played like crap. Legit he was 40th last year in terms of passers in the NFL, that is not good when he has that much guaranteed money. Realistically though the Browns are a paper tiger who have pieces and an argument can be made they have a high ceiling. But Watson needs to show he has can play QB at a higher level again before any discussion begins about CLE running for a playoff spot let alone a division with Burrow and Lamar.

Pittsburgh Steelers- After a decade plus of being the kings of the AFC North they are dealing with life at the bottom. Pickett showed some nice flashes, but they are still a work in progress. Watt returning on defense will certainly help that side of the ball, but their schedule and being at least 3rd in the division (if not last) right now makes this feel like another rebuilding season then a playoff year.

Denver Broncos- Sean Payton is a good coach who at minimum should help to get more out of the offense which was offensive to watch last year. Returning Wilson to some of his staple good plays will help too. But last year also exposed Denver for not having the talent across the board to keep up with the AFC regardless of Wilsons play at QB. Also the draft capital given up and cap constraints because of Wilsons contract limit their ability to add. If you told me in the next three years Denver once made the playoffs I could see that happening. But as it says up top everything is going to need to fall right otherwise they are a draft team.

Las Vegas Raiders- Their offense last year was actually 12th in the NFL and Jimmy G is a good distributor of the ball to an nice group of weapons there. The problem is their defense has holes all over minus the front four and even if you think their better then Denver they are still behind KC and LAC which is never a good starting point. Also Jimmy has never had the best injury luck which has to be factored into the equation also. In an AFC that seemingly is an arms race to the moon, the Raiders feel like a team that is "in the hunt" come December and fades.

New England Patriots- I truly believe if the head coach was not Bill Belichek this team would be discussed as a potential top 5 draft team this year. Their offense did add Juju Smith Schuster but lost Myers and Jonnu Smith while adding nothing else of substance. Team leader Devin McCourty is gone on the back end and their only true blue chip talent is Matthew Judon. Their decidedly the fourth best team at talent and QB in the division at this point. Maybe Mac Jones becomes serviceable enough to move the offense where they score enough points to hang in games while their defense does it best to limit the opposition. Maybe that is enough to get them to 9-10 wins and a possible playoff spot. But the Patriots it feels like you have to talk yourself into everything when reality shows this is just not a good roster.

 

On To The 2024 Draft

Indianapolis Colts- The Colts to me are last years Chicago Bears with a little more upside on offense and they probably win a few more games given the division. They are 100% transitioning their roster and Anthony Richardson will have some real highs and real lows at QB which can be entertaining. Jonathan Taylor is still here at RB so at least they should be potent on the ground Realistically though this is 4-5 win unit that is building for the future with their young QB that will take their lumps.

Tennessee Titans- Quick name a Titans WR beside Treylon Burks... yep not good Vern. The Titans act like they are competing in 2023, yet they have dumped a lot of veterans and making moves like a rebuilding team. The major question is how long Tannehill gets to start before the calls for Levis get loud enough for him to get a look.

Houston Texans- They got CJ Stroud and Will Anderson, but they may have some serious buyers remorse in a year for what they gave to get both of them. The defense has the look of a potential special unit in the future if Anderson develops with the core they are building, but the offense despite veteran addition is still long in the tooth for talent. 

 

 

 

[Success]

Great breakdown!  Pretty much agree w/ all of it.

 

Spot on w/ the Pats.  Belichick keeps that team in contention for a playoff spot. Just about any other coach & they would be sub-.500.

 

Good, proper deference to KC, which should please the humble bragging Chiefs fans who post here.

 

Despite all of the bluster, the AFC, to me, is still the big 3 of Cincy, KC & Buffalo.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Chargers are SB contenders.

Denver with Payton is a solid team that in any other division would be a solid playoff team. Wilson should be better and they should be in the hunt right tip until the end especially with a fourth place schedule. 

[corta765]

4 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Chargers are SB contenders.

 It is why I have them in their own category. On paper this team SHOULD be anywhere from 11-13 wins even with KC. But they have a single playoff appearance which the coach made some just atrocious calls a week after getting two guys hurt who didn't need to play. There is 100% a higher ceiling for this group and I won't be surprised if someday it appears for a season, but there is too much variance to buy them full board either.

[Warriorspikes51]

seems accurate!! 

[BillsFanSD]

Very nice breakdown.  

[78thealltimegreat]

The Chargers in their own category is incredibly spot on. There is only a handful of teams with their talent that have the mental lapses they do 

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The Chargers in their own category is incredibly spot on. There is only a handful of teams with their talent that have the mental lapses they do 

 

Legit I had no idea where to put them lol SB Contender? Sure! Playoff team with a question? Sure! Need everything to go right for the playoff chance? Sure!

 

Miami has the widest range of outcomes to me because I can see them at 13-3 and I can see them at 6-11 just simply because of the division and some roster questions. The Chargers on the other hand probably have a higher floor, but dear god their questions are so unique and off the wall by comparison. I mean this team punctured their starting QBs lung and people wonder why their roster regularly has injury issues. WHAT IS GOING ON THERE! haha

[Gregg]

28 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The Chargers in their own category is incredibly spot on. There is only a handful of teams with their talent that have the mental lapses they do 

 

They are the one team in the west that has the talent to win the division from the Chiefs, but they always fall short. The games are usually very close. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Success said:

 

 

Spot on w/ the Pats.  Belichick keeps that team in contention for a playoff spot. Just about any other coach & they would be sub-.500.

 

 

Wait, what? They were sub .500 last season with Belicheck.

[Robert Paulson]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Chargers are SB contenders.

Denver with Payton is a solid team that in any other division would be a solid playoff team. Wilson should be better and they should be in the hunt right tip until the end especially with a fourth place schedule. 

Wilson has been shot for 3 years and is playing on reputation. 

[Matt_In_NH]

I would put the browns with Chargers....AFC looks challenging.

[corta765]

10 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would put the browns with Chargers....AFC looks challenging.

 

I think the Browns have far far more to prove before they are there.

[Matt_In_NH]

Just now, corta765 said:

 

I think the Browns have far far more to prove before they are there.

and your opinion is final?

[corta765]

2 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

and your opinion is final?

I AM THE SENATE...no

[billsfan89]

The AFC is very stacked. You have several powerhouse teams KC, Bills, and Cincy all are about as close to "complete" teams as possible. Then you two teams in my opinion are just under the three powerhouse teams in the Jets, Jaguars and Ravens who while they may have a hole or two are not that far off. Then you have a large group of tough teams that can all easily win 10 games or more if things break right. The Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos are in that mix. 

 

The only truly rebuilding teams are the Titans, Colts and Texans who are likely at least a year away from anything meaningful. It's a slog in the AFC but it was similar last year too.

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

The AFC is very stacked. You have several powerhouse teams KC, Bills, and Cincy all are about as close to "complete" teams as possible. Then you two teams in my opinion are just under the three powerhouse teams in the Jets, Jaguars and Ravens who while they may have a hole or two are not that far off. Then you have a large group of tough teams that can all easily win 10 games or more if things break right. The Steelers, Browns, Dolphins, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders and Broncos are in that mix. 

 

The only truly rebuilding teams are the Titans, Colts and Texans who are likely at least a year away from anything meaningful. It's a slog in the AFC but it was similar last year too.

 

Lucky Jags. Here we are on May 9th, and they are already the 2023 AFCS champions unless the injury bug its them hard.

[cle23]

I don't disagree with much of what was said, but Watson played in 2020, so he has played 6 games in 2 seasons, not in 3 seasons.  You would assume that he would get back closer to 2020 Watson after a full offseason and beginning the year, but I don't disagree with Cleveland's lower rating until he proves it.  If he is 2020 Watson, they should be SB contenders.  If he isn't, then they won't be.

[PatsFanNH]

5 hours ago, Success said:

Great breakdown!  Pretty much agree w/ all of it.

 

Spot on w/ the Pats.  Belichick keeps that team in contention for a playoff spot. Just about any other coach & they would be sub-.500.

 

Good, proper deference to KC, which should please the humble bragging Chiefs fans who post here.

 

Despite all of the bluster, the AFC, to me, is still the big 3 of Cincy, KC & Buffalo.

 

BB the coach has to do a lot of up coaching to make up for BB the GM. I also believe he is just costing to get to Shula record then he retires then Mayo will be the new HC. (Which I think the league will be fine with. Even though it’s not to the letter of the rules.)

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 How was the offense in 2022 less dynamic than 2021? They averaged the same amount of points as 2021, had the best 3rd down percentage of Josh's career and had the most yards per game in team history. It clearly wasn't the same offense as 2021, but it was a better offense than 2021. Josh had slightly better season stats in 2022 also. 

 

 I think people forget just how bad Josh and the offense was after game 7 in 2021. 17 tds, 3 ints through the first 7 games. 19 tds and 12 ints in the final 9 games, including the worst game of his career when he posted a 17 QB Rating against a bad Atlanta team. And all that bad play in 2021 was against a much easier schedule.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2023 by LOVEMESOMEBILLS

[corta765]

7 minutes ago, cle23 said:

I don't disagree with much of what was said, but Watson played in 2020, so he has played 6 games in 2 seasons, not in 3 seasons.  You would assume that he would get back closer to 2020 Watson after a full offseason and beginning the year, but I don't disagree with Cleveland's lower rating until he proves it.  If he is 2020 Watson, they should be SB contenders.  If he isn't, then they won't be.

 

My bad its been so long it felt like three seasons lol. I honestly wonder between his injuries and more importantly that much time off plus the chaos that surrounded him if he ever can reach the heights he had. Last year was not good but 6 games is not much to judge a player and he will have a full season from camp on to get himself going.

 

The bigger question is are the Browns better then CIN or BAL? If they are 1-3 vs those two alone they already fall back in division AND that leaves not a ton of room for error in the remaining 14 games.

 

Again I am skeptical for this year, although long term I think CLE and Watson get it together enough to be at least a playoff team.

1 minute ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 How was the offense in 2022 less dynamic than 2021? They averaged the same amount of points as 2021, had the best 3rd down percentage of Josh's career had the most yards per game in team history. It clearly wasn't the same offense as 2021, but it was a better offense than 2021. Josh had slightly better season stats in 2022 also. 

 

 I think people forget just how bad Josh and the offense was after game 7 in 2021. 17 tds, 3 ints through the first 7 games. 19 tds and 12 ints in the final 9 games, including the worst game of his career when he posted a 17 QB Rating against a bad Atlanta team. And all that bad play in 2021 was against a much easier schedule.

 

 

 

They were far more boom or bust in 2022 then the two years prior. 21' they had a blimp but by the end of the season from Bucs game on they were rolling. Last year once they got to the Browns game it felt like Josh was basically elevating the offense single handily but it was never crisp. Teams doubled Diggs and his target options were not there. It is why I like Kincaid and Sheffield as two guys who can eat yardage how Beasley did and give a security blanket Josh needed as last year went on. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

6 hours ago, corta765 said:

 It is why I have them in their own category. On paper this team SHOULD be anywhere from 11-13 wins even with KC. But they have a single playoff appearance which the coach made some just atrocious calls a week after getting two guys hurt who didn't need to play. There is 100% a higher ceiling for this group and I won't be surprised if someday it appears for a season, but there is too much variance to buy them full board either.

Same could be said of the Bills. They have a superstar QB and a coaching staff that cost them a SuperBowl.  Obviously Bills have accomplished more but the Bills were in an easier division.  I've posted before, that Bills may only win 11 games and still be a better team than 13-3 2022 team.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

48 minutes ago, cle23 said:

I don't disagree with much of what was said, but Watson played in 2020, so he has played 6 games in 2 seasons, not in 3 seasons.  You would assume that he would get back closer to 2020 Watson after a full offseason and beginning the year, but I don't disagree with Cleveland's lower rating until he proves it.  If he is 2020 Watson, they should be SB contenders.  If he isn't, then they won't be.

Watson is absolutely awful.  He had multiple weeks to prepare and was truly terrible in his 6 weeks of action last season.  

Will go down as the single worst GM decision in NFL history.  Far worse than any draft pick bust or other lopsided trade.  They knew about the allegations and still gave away multiple years of draft picks and signed him to the single worst contract in NFL history.  NFL is likely blackballing the Browns from PrimeTime games to avoid the  public backlash.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Robert Paulson said:

Wilson has been shot for 3 years and is playing on reputation. 

Terrible OL in Seattle and terrible HC like one of the worst ever in Denver. 

But you may be right he could be shot too.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

They were far more boom or bust in 2022 then the two years prior. 21' they had a blimp but by the end of the season from Bucs game on they were rolling. Last year once they got to the Browns game it felt like Josh was basically elevating the offense single handily but it was never crisp. Teams doubled Diggs and his target options were not there. It is why I like Kincaid and Sheffield as two guys who can eat yardage how Beasley did and give a security blanket Josh needed as last year went on. 

 

 Again stats show a different story. 3rd down percentage 2021- 46.4%, 2022 - 50.26%. Ypg 2021 - 391.7, 2022 - 407.7. 

 

 As for the offense rolling after the Bucs game, up only 10 against a bad Carolina team until a they scored with 2 minutes left to go, played really well against the Pats, then Josh's worst game ever against Atlanta and finally up only 3 with 9 minutes to go against a really bad 4 win Jets team. The team and the offense was not rolling after the Bucs game. They started rolling in the playoffs, but that's all people remember the playoff games.

 

 

 

[cle23]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Watson is absolutely awful.  He had multiple weeks to prepare and was truly terrible in his 6 weeks of action last season.  

Will go down as the single worst GM decision in NFL history.  Far worse than any draft pick bust or other lopsided trade.  They knew about the allegations and still gave away multiple years of draft picks and signed him to the single worst contract in NFL history.  NFL is likely blackballing the Browns from PrimeTime games to avoid the  public backlash.

 

Watson in 2020 was top tier. He still has the talent. He wasn't allowed to practice for months or even be in the building. He didn't even get 1st team reps or play much in preseason because they had to get Brissett ready to play.  

 

Watson was average last year. He was understandably very rusty the 1st game or 2 and they had a couple terrible weather games at the end of the year. Not excusing his play but it definitely puts it into perspective a little bit.

 

He very well may never get back to where he was. But I think it's very premature to come out and say that he's terrible all the sudden.

[Chaos]

Bengals are ahead of the Bills until proven otherwise. Two years in a row, the Bengals advance further than the Bills This past season the Bengals stomped the Bills. They are not even. 

Edited May 10, 2023 by Chaos

[corta765]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Bengals are ahead of the Bills until proven otherwise. Two years in a row, the Bengals advance further than the Bengals This past season the Bengals stomped the Bills. They are not even. 

I’m not disagreeing but the gap is small and neither is on KCs level

[Kwai San]

10 hours ago, corta765 said:

 

Legit I had no idea where to put them lol SB Contender? Sure! Playoff team with a question? Sure! Need everything to go right for the playoff chance? Sure!

 

Miami has the widest range of outcomes to me because I can see them at 13-3 and I can see them at 6-11 just simply because of the division and some roster questions. The Chargers on the other hand probably have a higher floor, but dear god their questions are so unique and off the wall by comparison. I mean this team punctured their starting QBs lung and people wonder why their roster regularly has injury issues. WHAT IS GOING ON THERE! haha

 

Awesome job @corta765 on the overall recap and DEAD NUTS on with this Miami take.  Who the heck knows who is going to show up for them???  That and if the Bills get a late season away game against the Fins this year?  Well it will play different than last year thats for sure!!!

 

Thanks for the time effort and energy on this write up....great take all around.  THIS is why I like coming to this site - people who post something of substance not crazy crap about clothes and what not!!!!

[corta765]

10 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

Awesome job @corta765 on the overall recap and DEAD NUTS on with this Miami take.  Who the heck knows who is going to show up for them???  That and if the Bills get a late season away game against the Fins this year?  Well it will play different than last year thats for sure!!!

 

Thanks for the time effort and energy on this write up....great take all around.  THIS is why I like coming to this site - people who post something of substance not crazy crap about clothes and what not!!!!

 

Appreciated the kind remarks. I try to limit my posts to things of substance that are not repeated although I did once post we need to get rid of Micah Hyde which MAYYY have been the season he also had the incredible INT vs NE... WHOOPS

[Mister Defense]

Very nice, detailed take, analysis here!

 

I agree with most, but not the inclusion of Denver, at least with Wilson starting at quarterback.  The guy is done and I believe no coach or players can help revive him.  As I said the day it happened last year, worst trade, by leaps and bounds, in NFL history.  I would have been outraged as Broncos fan--if it was just a straight up, player for player trade for only Noah Fant.  But they literally gave away the store, their future , for  a quarterback who the Seahawks wanted to just get rid of anyway.

 

And I think you may be wrong about Tennessee, as their coaching seems to keep them in contention.  Could not believe they got rid of their best player last year, AJ Brown.  This and the Wilson trade make me  wonder how some of these GMs got their jobs.

 

But otherwise really like these rankings, observations.

 

[corta765]

7 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

Very nice, detailed take, analysis here!

 

I agree with most, but not the inclusion of Denver, at least with Wilson starting at quarterback.  The guy is done and I believe no coach or players can help revive him.  As I said the day it happened last year, worst trade, by leaps and bounds, in NFL history.  I would have been outraged as Broncos fan--if it was just a straight up, player for player trade for only Noah Fant.  But they literally gave away the store, their future , for  a quarterback who the Seahawks wanted to just get rid of anyway.

 

And I think you may be wrong about Tennessee, as their coaching seems to keep them in contention.  Could not believe they got rid of their best player last year, AJ Brown.  This and the Wilson trade make me  wonder how some of these GMs got their jobs.

 

But otherwise really like these rankings, observations.

 

 

Thanks man. I think Payton is the offensive version of BB who can elevate a QB even if they are limited which is more why I have them there. Also Hackett game mgmt wise was just so over his head that in itself might keep them closer or win a few games they shouldn't.

 

Titans I could be wrong with as their they play an incredibly weak division and if Henry is going that will keep them alive if they don't turn the ball over. I just wonder though if they are 2-5 or 3-6 mid season if the wheels really come off at that point.

[Bruffalo]

Bills just need one of the many FA Edge rushers still available to round out the defense and I think we're just straight up better than we were a year ago. 

[Bulldog]

I may, admittedly, just be a simpleton - but these are the only "tiers" that matter to me:

 

Tier 1 - Teams that I live & die to see win every week --- Buffalo Bills

 

Tier 2 - Teams that I intensely dislike and hope to see lose every week --- NE Patriots, Miami Dolphins, NY Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys 

 

Tier 3 - Teams that I only care if they win or lose if it affects the Bills in the standings --- all other NFL teams.