Which would you rather have the Bills draft first, a better #2 TE or a better #2 WR?

[C.Biscuit97]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I do think there is a reason, and it has nothing to do with Knox's ability to get the ball more.  It has everything to do with how the TE position is being used in our offenses under Daboll and Dorsey.  We are an offense that likes to push the ball down field, while at the same time having OL issues that struggle to hold protections long enough for routes to develop down field.  So Dorsey elected to use Knox more as a blocker to try and negate that.  

 

And you say a Gronk type player...others say a Kelce type player...I mean lets be real, those are 2 of the top 3 or 4 to ever do it at their positions in the history of the NFL, and some would argue they are the top 2.  You don't just find a top 5 player in NFL history when ever you want to.  

 

More importantly, its not like every team needs to find a Kelce or Gronk.  Knox is capable of being a top 5 TE in the NFL this year, but he can't produce like that if he is not given the targets to do so.  I mean look at San Francisco, I don't think anyone would disagree that Kittle is the 2nd best TE in football.  If they used Kittle the way KC uses Kelce, then Kittle's numbers would be as good or better than Kelce.  But they don't, they are a run first team and when Jimmy G was the QB he was a statue from the pocket, so they used Kittle a lot as an extra blocker.  When Purdy took over, Kittles numbers began exploding because Purdy had more mobility to buy time and giving the young QB another safety net like Kittle made more sense so he was used as a receiver a lot more.  And thankfully so as he was a big reason I won my fantasy championship after being mostly worthless while Jimmy G was QB.  

 

It is all about how a player is used.  If they committed to featuring and using Knox as a receiver more (and he leads the team in catch % too), he would easily have top 5 TE stats.  I mean Knox only had 65 targets this year despite having 15 TD's the last 2 seasons.  

I have no disagreement with any of this. I do think for special players you scheme up to get them the ball. Davis and McKenzie struggled last year. Why didn’t Knox get more involved? The Giants just traded for Waller. I bet they find ways to get him the ball (until he gets hurt in week 2). 
 

I really like Knox. He had something unimaginable happen to him last year. I just would like a true 1, scheme breaking TE for the bills once in my life.  I think number 2 receivers are a lot easier to find than a dominant TE and I think there are 3 guys who could be that for us in this draft (Washington worries me a bit). 
 

I know it won’t happen but Mayer and Allen would be a buddy movie. 

[SoMAn]

We already have a #2 TE.   I'd love to have a #1 TE that opponents fear.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And this is why I am still concerned about Dorsey.  I get it was his first season as an OC, and he very well could prove to become a great OC.  But he isn't a great OC yet and is learning on the job.  And the idea we are putting our current Super Bowl window and the prime years of Allen in the hands of an inexperienced OC makes me nervous.  And while some things are understandable learning curves, using the personnel properly should not be one of them when he has been here this long and is so familiar with the roster.  

 

And it went beyond the use of Knox.  Not getting Cook involved in the run game earlier in the season was understandable with Singletary and even Moss still here.  But not getting Cook involved as a pass catcher was puzzling given they tried to sign McFlake from Washington in free agency, then signed Duke, and then used a 2nd rounder on Cook and all for the purpose of catching passes out of the backfield.  With Crowder hurt, and McKenzie being unreliable at the slot, it was also puzzling that Shakir wasn't getting more opportunities given he was showing quite a bit of poential in the limited ones he got.  Then we trade for Hines who I believe he only got him something like 10 total touches on the season even though a big reason we made the trade was to add another receiving weapon.  

 

So I am hoping this year is different and we make better use of the talent on the roster.  I think Beane had a sneaky good offseason so far on adding pieces to the offense and I am excited to see what else we add between now and camp, and how Dorsey and the offense comes together in camp.  

The reason the FO went with Dorsey was for continuity and consistency.  By all accounts this had Allen's approval.  By most stats they maintained the offensive output.  You can put any OC under a microscope and find ways they can improve - it was certainly that way with Daboll.

 

As for use of personnel, that is tricky.  Singletary had timing issues, Cook had a bad case of rookie nerves, Shakir was out of position, McKenzie had terrible drops, and Allen had problems with speed and arc on the short passes.  These all contributed to bad chemistry on the short swing passes they seemed to want to incorporate last year.  How long do you keep doing something that is struggling.

[mannc]

On 4/4/2023 at 10:58 AM, Herb Nightly said:

So; you would bench one of the WR in favor of Kincaid, or Mayer? They certainly aren't replacing Knox. Think about what you are saying; you wouldn't use a slot WR? You would run 2TE / 2 WR sets?

It's certainly not the way we've run our offense overt the past three years, but I think it can work.  And who would you rather throw the ball to in a bad-weather playoff game, a 5'9" slot receiver or a 6'4" TE with great hands?  And how is a defense going to match up with both Knox and Kincaid? 

 

If Dalton Kincaid is there at 27, I don't know how you don't take him, although I definitely would not complain about taking Flowers or JSN there.  (Most likely, all three will be gone by the time we pick.)  I don't think I would take any of the other TEs at 27.   

Edited April 5, 2023 by mannc

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

You want to get a good blocking TE who doesn't have hands of stone, that's fine and can help.  But wouldn't spend a day 1 or day 2 draft pick on that guy either.

 

Knox is an above average TE.  If it were easy to find Kelce and Kittle types every team would have one, but they don't.  Knox and the guy on Atlanta may be the closest to them.  To me a great TE is more important when you have a noodle armed QB which we don't.  To lazy to look this up but I'm guessing the average yards per completion for a WR is longer than for a TE.  So again when you have the QB that get the WR the ball, no need to mess around.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

This offense would break records w/ a TE like Kittle/Kelce/Andrews. I love Knox and he’s very clutch, but he’s just not on that level. Unfortunately, it’s almost as hard to find an elite TE than it is to find a franchise QB so I would draft a good WR prospect over a good TE prospect. 

[Mister Defense]

The Bills have an excellent tight end, but don't use him well now because of a poor OC, just like they had an excellent running back in Singletary but did not use him.

 

The Bills are in danger of spinning their wheels big time now, running in place as teams pass them by, as we saw this year with the Bengals, and teams like Miami and others about to pass them by.

 

They have actual needs, such as WR, O-line, and linebacker, but the poor coaching is making some think that other areas are just as weak.  Dangerous thinking, if we want the Bills to contend.

 

If Dorsey is the same coordinator he was last year, I predict he will not last the year.

18 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The reason the FO went with Dorsey was for continuity and consistency.  By all accounts this had Allen's approval.  By most stats they maintained the offensive output.  You can put any OC under a microscope and find ways they can improve - it was certainly that way with Daboll.

 

As for use of personnel, that is tricky.  Singletary had timing issues, Cook had a bad case of rookie nerves, Shakir was out of position, McKenzie had terrible drops, and Allen had problems with speed and arc on the short passes.  These all contributed to bad chemistry on the short swing passes they seemed to want to incorporate last year.  How long do you keep doing something that is struggling.

 

Wow, really giving Dorsey a huge pass here!!

 

[papazoid]

knox is not above average....he is simply an average recieving TE and a below average blocker.

 

the highest rating i have seen for knox is around 13th best....yet he is the 7th highest paid AAV

 

i've seen rating as low as 20's......he's in nobody's top 10.....after him there is garbage at TE2 & TE3.

 

at least at WR you have a top 5 elite WR1A in Diggs, WR2 or 3 in davis and three WR3's in Shakir, Harty & Sherfield....you have quality depth.....could we use a WR1B ??....sure.......i'd rather invest in the Oline....thats still a weakness...other than a mediocre Dawkins....you have nothing

 

josh covers alot of weaknesses....we are so close and yet so far

[Shemp]

I'd rather see the Bills convert Spencer Brown to a TE. He has experience at TE, at 6'8, he can go up for jump balls and his blocking on the outside can help the running game enormously. I'd like to see them acquire or draft a stud to replace Brown at RT.

[PrimeTime101]

10 minutes ago, Blah Blah said:

I'd rather see the Bills convert Spencer Brown to a TE. He has experience at TE, at 6'8, he can go up for jump balls and his blocking on the outside can help the running game enormously. I'd like to see them acquire or draft a stud to replace Brown at RT.

LOL

Edited April 6, 2023 by PrimeTime101

[Cash]

Depends.  Obviously we'd all take "the next Travis Kelce" over "the next Robert Woods" (no disrespect to Bobby Woo - just using him as an example of a good but not great player).  And just as obviously, we'd all take "the next Stefon Diggs" over some JAG at TE.  But assuming we're choosing between 2 draft prospects with similar upside, we can focus just on positional value.  And for me, it comes down to what the plan is at the OC level.  Under McDermott, we've had 11 personnel (1 TE, 1 RB) as our primary offense most of the time.  We've ebbed and flowed in terms of what % we spent in 11, but it was always the tops.

 

In past regimes, we had a lot of different offensive concepts.  (Tends to happen when you're bringing in a new OC every other year.)  A shockingly high number of them were very TE-heavy, often including 2-TE sets as the base offense.  I say it was shocking because at the time, we consistently struggled to field even 1 NFL-caliber TE, much less 2.  And we did very little during those years to change that, despite everyone on the team saying how important the TE position was to the offense.

 

But I digress.  My point is this:  If Dorsey et al have a plan to heavily feature 2-TE sets, I think #2 TE is more important.  But if that #2 TE is only going to play as much as Quentin Morris did last year, then I'd rather focus on a WR first.

[Simon Says]

On 4/4/2023 at 4:13 AM, Donuts and Doritos said:

I'd rather a better WR 2. But this draft sounds like it has better TE. So I'll take a Kelce type player. As Beane said we want the best weapon.

Yes, this draft has a good group of tight ends...which will allow you to WAIT and draft one later. 

On 4/4/2023 at 4:16 AM, BillsFanForever19 said:

Depends who's available at each position.

 

I'd prefer a WR2. But if there's a run on them and there isn't someone Beane liked and there's someone like Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer on the board - I'd be happy with it.

 

 

Unless Beane likes Drew Sanders and he's on the board still, the value isn't there at 27 for a MLB. Trade up from 59 for Edmunds replacement, if MLB starts moving before then. Shouldn't cost much in this Draft.

"Value " is a guess or projection. If Bills think Sanders or Campbell,for example, can step into Edmunds spot, then they might think either is worth the 27th pick if available.

[HappyDays]

I think the two best possible and realistic options for us at pick 27 are Quentin Johnston or Dalton Kincaid. I don't have a preference between them. They both have the physical traits that we covet and would immediately improve their position group. Unfortunately I don't really expect either of these players to be available at pick 27 and I'm not that excited about the other WRs and TEs that could realistically be available at that spot.

[Patrick Duffy]

6 hours ago, papazoid said:

knox is not above average....he is simply an average recieving TE and a below average blocker.

 

the highest rating i have seen for knox is around 13th best....yet he is the 7th highest paid AAV

 

i've seen rating as low as 20's......he's in nobody's top 10.....after him there is garbage at TE2 & TE3.

 

at least at WR you have a top 5 elite WR1A in Diggs, WR2 or 3 in davis and three WR3's in Shakir, Harty & Sherfield....you have quality depth.....could we use a WR1B ??....sure.......i'd rather invest in the Oline....thats still a weakness...other than a mediocre Dawkins....you have nothing

 

josh covers alot of weaknesses....we are so close and yet so far

 

Well, I would think that's a bit of a stretch....when you say Knox is just average and below average blocker, makes me wonder that you may not be considering the whole picture into account and just taking this last season as conclusion for this opinion. 

 

I'm not saying he's top notch level with Kelce/Andrews etc....however I definitely think he is a little above average at the least. Also I think his blocking is better than you think. I can see if you had stated he's about average as a blocker, but not below average. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

4 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:

Yes, this draft has a good group of tight ends...which will allow you to WAIT and draft one later. 

"Value " is a guess or projection. If Bills think Sanders or Campbell,for example, can step into Edmunds spot, then they might think either is worth the 27th pick if available.

 

Since there's not as many WR considered 1st round, there's a better chance they're gone by 27. In which case if there's a TE they grade as a 1st rounder vs a WR they have graded as a 2nd, you take the TE. (Since the thread scenario only allows a WR or TE pick).

 

Personally, Id rather have a WR2 upgrade, but if Beane has a TE he has valued higher @ 27, then he's got to take them. (Again we're stuck w/ Beane's evaluation of "value" since he's the guy making the pick)

 

Edited April 6, 2023 by Donuts and Doritos

[Warriorspikes51]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

I think the two best possible and realistic options for us at pick 27 are Quentin Johnston or Dalton Kincaid. I don't have a preference between them. They both have the physical traits that we covet and would immediately improve their position group. Unfortunately I don't really expect either of these players to be available at pick 27 and I'm not that excited about the other WRs and TEs that could realistically be available at that spot.

if Hyatt makes it to 27, I’d love the pick

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

if Hyatt makes it to 27, I’d love the pick

 

I've come down a bit on Hyatt after his underwhelming 40 time. Maybe that's not fair but for a guy who specializes in vertical speed I was hoping for more there. That being said I would still like the pick, just not as much as a few other players.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've come down a bit on Hyatt after his underwhelming 40 time. Maybe that's not fair but for a guy who specializes in vertical speed I was hoping for more there. That being said I would still like the pick, just not as much as a few other players.

doesn’t his game speed look like 4.3 though?

 

Tank Dell and Johnathan Mingo are other WR’s that excite me

Edited April 7, 2023 by Warriorspikes51

[NewEra]

On 4/5/2023 at 10:52 AM, ColoradoBills said:

I'm beginning to prepare myself for Beane being in a bad spot at #27.  A very good chance all his round 1 talent will be gone, and he won't find

a trade down partner.  He then will be stuck with reaching for a player.  It then could come down to a player in a position I don't favor and while

I will learn to live with that decision, this board will probably go ape-poop over it.

 

My greatest hope will be a CB that other teams have a 1st round grade on, and a need for, will want to trade up for at #27.

I hope, I hope.

I think teams might consider trading up for Hooker so they can snag that 5th year option

[papazoid]

10 hours ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

Well, I would think that's a bit of a stretch....when you say Knox is just average and below average blocker, makes me wonder that you may not be considering the whole picture into account and just taking this last season as conclusion for this opinion. 

 

I'm not saying he's top notch level with Kelce/Andrews etc....however I definitely think he is a little above average at the least. Also I think his blocking is better than you think. I can see if you had stated he's about average as a blocker, but not below average. 

 

 i stand corrected on knox blocking...did a little digging. according to PFF he is better than most at blocking (by my eye he's game, but gets pushed around alot)

 

Knox finished the year ranked 22nd among tight ends with a 64.3 receiving grade.

his 7.6% drop rate was tied for the third highest. 

 he ranked fourth with a 66.5 run-blocking grade

his 8.4% positive run-block rate placed fifth.

Out of the 30 tight ends who stayed in to pass protect at least 40 times in 2022, Knox earned a 10th-place ranking with a 65.6 pass-blocking grade after surrendering just two pressures on 46 pass-block reps.

 

i'm somewhere between pleasantly surprised and  shocked......i guess i need to look at some other TE blocking a lil closer...they must get really pushed around