Big Board - Top 40 Spots - V1.2

[Chaos]

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 -  Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting.  

Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright.  Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary.  Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing


Lots of polling, lots of feedback given to help set up an entire draft board.  This is course will be a fluid process.  

Here is a google sheet showing the information below:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing

Some explanation.  My estimate of the top 20 players are broken up into groups of top 10, 15, 20.  Order does not matter too much to me.  Among those top 20, there are 7 Players I would exclude from the Bills taking, 4 QBs and 3 defensive players. Branch, Porter and Breese. 

The other 13, I have identified as BPA and the Bills should pick them if they are available at 27.  Picks 21 and 22 are two TEs I expect to go before the Bills pick, Dalton Kincaid and Mike Mayer. I think the Bills should prioritize those at 27, if they are available. 

After Pick 22, I begin with TBD favorite Jack Campbell, and then follow that with the next favorites from Fan voting. (interpretating fan results is as much art as science. 

Please provide feedback of any reordering, deletions or additions you think should be made to the top 40.  

 

Further note, the consensus in column three is based on the mean rankings of 10 internet draft sites. 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/
https://theathletic.com/4304645/2023/03/14/nfl-draft-2023-top-100-combine/
https://www.draftcountdown.com/
https://bleacherreport.com/nfl-draft
https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news
https://www.pff.com/draft/big-board?season=2023
https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-big-board/
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-draft-prospects-2023-player-rankings-big-board/izwvqtdgymtvdw7qzx0q3hxp
https://walterfootball.com/draft2023.php

Thanks for your help. 

 

Here is the trade made during the Athletics most recent mock draft

 

 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Chaos

[ColoradoBills]

As I have said, I'm not a college football fan much at all so all this has helped me realistically look at options for Beane.

Thanks for all your effort.

 

As of now, my hope is for a trade down and go with Campbell with the higher 2nd round pick.

Use the next 3 Day 2 picks for the offense.

[PrimeTime101]

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

[Chaos]

15 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

QBs don't matter much. More or less followed the consenus of the websites, which are wrong. Richardson may very well be #1 overall

I am not sure I understand your directionality are you saying Johnston should be picked before nine, or after nine and if so where. In one recent mock by the Athletic, he fell out of the first round altogether. 

[PrimeTime101]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

QBs don't matter much. More or less followed the consenus of the websites, which are wrong. Richardson may very well be #1 overall

I am not sure I understand your directionality are you saying Johnston should be picked before nine, or after nine and if so where. In one recent mock by the Athletic, he fell out of the first round altogether. 

lol Athletic mocks again have a horrible history of putting players in positions for clicks.. that being said.. again.. good job.

[Sherlock Holmes]

Van Ness Monster, Jack Cambell or Michael Meyers and if any of those 3 are sitting in the 2nd round you go get them.

[GunnerBill]

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

Depends on how Tre, Elam and Porter play. Let the season play out and see what happens. Still a year away from that decision, no reason to make it now 

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Depends on how Tre, Elam and Porter play. Let the season play out and see what happens. Still a year away from that decision, no reason to make it now 

 

And on how you feel you are set at safety. Poyer is a $2m hit to cut. Hyde is a FA. Maybe they get Benford some snaps there in 2023 and evaluate him? Maybe they draft someone? Maybe they keep Poyer both years? Maybe they extend Hyde? But a White & Benford safety duo in in 2024 would only be a million or two more expensive than Hyde and Poyer in 2023 and you'd have two starting corners on rookie deals. 

 

Again, not advocating for this plan, drafting another DB in round 1 is not my ideal outcome but in a draft this poor if you get a chance to take Joey Porter or Anton Harrison or Jalin Hyatt at #27 as much as we all want offensive pieces you would be ignoring a guy in another tier of talent altogether to force an offensive pick. When people talk about draft reaches this is what they talk about. Not a team picking the 32nd player on their big board when the 25th guy is still on the board.... but a team ignoring a player in a higher tier prospects to force a pick at a particular position. 

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Do you move off Tre White after next year in that scenario?

 

Bills have an out after this coming year and I think that could be on the table regardless of what they do this year.  

 

This is also an option though. Depends how Tre plays this year. 

[Chaos]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You wouldn't take Joey Porter Jnr in the extremely unlikely circumstances that he drops to #27? I think I'd sprint to the podium. Not in love with taking another 1st round corner but he'd be incredible value there. 

That is the type of feedback I am looking for.  I will change his status to BPA

 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Chaos said:

That is the type of feedback I am looking for.  I will change his status to BPA

 

I think another reason that corner might be in play is White’s salary to performance ratio.  He might return to form next year after his knee injury, but it’s possible that he doesn’t.  In the latter case, tough to have that much salary tied up in a guy who may no longer be a top performer.  Having a backup plan for that has some allure.

[Chaos]

Board Updated to Reflect Joey Porter being considered a BPA the Bills should take ahead of the expected LB/OT/WR options prioritized for pick 27. 

[Chaos]

Updated 4/1/2023 - V1.2 -  Darnell Wright OT to 23 ahead of Jack Campbell LB, based on TBD voting.  

Lukas Van Ness Iowa,Dalton Kincaid Utah,Michael Mayer Notre Dame removed from the BPA list to automatically be selected ahead of Wright.  Bijan Robinson moved ahead of Zay Flowers. Some small reshuffling among 38-40 based on TBD polls and commentary.  Spreadheet link reflects the current top 40

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13bMkyB0koDAu043sfhoNbQHde-pABWvrZJK0qvQ0oKk/edit?usp=sharing

[starrymessenger]

On 3/26/2023 at 4:10 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

[Chaos]

3 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

For purposes of the Bills' board it doesn't matter if Richardson goes 1st or 26th.  I also think he will go first though. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

16 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

Richardson should be the # 1 pick overall imo. I'm positive he's Josh Allen 2. Flame away.

What made Josh great was his head and heart! He put the work in to improve. Don't know Richardson well but he has work to do just like Josh.

[starrymessenger]

38 minutes ago, Chaos said:

For purposes of the Bills' board it doesn't matter if Richardson goes 1st or 26th.  I also think he will go first though. 

Myself I doubt that he's going #1 and taking a more pro ready guy like Stroud makes sense I guess for a rebuilding team and the tight windows to compete. 
But I'll tell you I look at Richardson and I see Josh Allen at Wyo or early Bills. Like Allen the big weakness, in addition to being raw (one year starter) is alleged to be his inaccuracy. Thing is, as Orlofsky has illustrated, there were drops of perfectly thrown balls. More importantly, he's not inaccurate. Like Josh was he is inconsistent. When his mechanics are good he's extremely accurate. He has shown the ability to process and make good decisions. Again he is not consistent but like Josh you see that he can do it. To me that's all you need to know at this point in his development. 
I think there are throws that probably only him and Allen can make in or out of the League. He's absolutely an incredible prospect. I would start him right away. He needs a Brian Daboll.

25 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

What made Josh great was his head and heart! He put the work in to improve. Don't know Richardson well but he has work to do just like Josh.

To all accounts he's a serious dude who is hard working and smart. Has all the intangibles. Given the position he's the #1 player in this draft and I don't think anything like him has been seen since Allen showed up.

Edited April 1, 2023 by starrymessenger

[mrags]

Thank you for this Chaos. Have to get to watching some of the vids/sites when I get some time. 

[GunnerBill]

On 3/27/2023 at 12:10 AM, PrimeTime101 said:

Richardson is way to low for a top listing but I could see him go that high. Johnston way to low as well.

 

buuuut...

 

All in All

 

Well Done. 

 

I am gonna say this now on Johnston.... I have had enough conversations with enough people to really believe he is going to go later than a LOT of people think. I am increasingly of the view JSN will be the first receiver off the board. 

[Coach Tuesday]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am gonna say this now on Johnston.... I have had enough conversations with enough people to really believe he is going to go later than a LOT of people think. I am increasingly of the view JSN will be the first receiver off the board. 

I agree.  JSN will go top-15 easy.

[JerseyBills]

Interesting 

Would you guys consider moving up if he slips ?

 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Interesting 

Would you guys consider moving up if he slips ?

 

 

I wouldn't move up. But if he is there at #27 I think he is worth the swing. You are getting one of 2 elite level talents in this draft when your other options might be mid to late day 2 level talents who are getting pushed up by a bad year. I still think he goes top 10 though. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am gonna say this now on Johnston.... I have had enough conversations with enough people to really believe he is going to go later than a LOT of people think. I am increasingly of the view JSN will be the first receiver off the board. 

This highlights the biggest complexity in evaluating college talent.  Certainly for amateurs and I expect is a primary separator from the top scouts in the NFL and the other scouts in the NFL: the disparate talent levels at QB and Coaching in College.  JSN caught passes from a QB who is presumed to be one of the most NFL ready QBs in the NFL. Johnston caught passes from a QB who may very well not be drafted.   As an analogy most of us are quite sure Dawson Knox is held back by Ken Dorsey.  But we also judge Knox's underlying talent based on having one of the best QB in the NFL throwing too him. We don't know what Knox would like like with Reid Mahomes.  Nor do we know what he would look like with Derek Carr or Kenny Pickett throwing him passes.

Johnston's college production levels are pretty mediocre. One would really have to assume he was held back in college to take him with a top 10 or 15 pick, IMO.  We do know that in a good system JSN can generate a high level of production.  We also know that Garret Wilson who looked good with Zach Wilson/Mike White came from the same program.  Hard for me to imagine taking Johnston ahead of JSN. (Unless injury concerns for JSN are high)

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This highlights the biggest complexity in evaluating college talent.  Certainly for amateurs and I expect is a primary separator from the top scouts in the NFL and the other scouts in the NFL: the disparate talent levels at QB and Coaching in College.  JSN caught passes from a QB who is presumed to be one of the most NFL ready QBs in the NFL. Johnston caught passes from a QB who may very well not be drafted.   As an analogy most of us are quite sure Dawson Knox is held back by Ken Dorsey.  But we also judge Knox's underlying talent based on having one of the best QB in the NFL throwing too him. We don't know what Knox would like like with Reid Mahomes.  Nor do we know what he would look like with Derek Carr or Kenny Pickett throwing him passes.

Johnston's college production levels are pretty mediocre. One would really have to assume he was held back in college to take him with a top 10 or 15 pick, IMO.  We do know that in a good system JSN can generate a high level of production.  We also know that Garret Wilson who looked good with Zach Wilson/Mike White came from the same program.  Hard for me to imagine taking Johnston ahead of JSN. (Unless injury concerns for JSN are high)

 

The concerns on Johnston are not raw production. They are about his skill set. Hands, route running and not playing to his size. 

[HappyDays]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The concerns on Johnston are not raw production. They are about his skill set. Hands, route running and not playing to his size. 

 

He's such a Brandon Beane player, though. If he makes it to 27 I think we sprint to the podium. Pure physical and athletic traits, a team captain, reportedly the hardest worker on the team. You bet on the traits and trust that the rest can be developed.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He's such a Brandon Beane player, though. If he makes it to 27 I think we sprint to the podium. Pure physical and athletic traits, a team captain, reportedly the hardest worker on the team. You bet on the traits and trust that the rest can be developed.

 

A lot of people have him going in the first 15 picks or so and I don't think he goes that early. Second half of the first round somewhere. I would be fine if the Bills take him at #27. I have him graded similarly to Christian Watson who was the guy I wanted them to take last year for exactly the "bet on traits" reason. 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The concerns on Johnston are not raw production. They are about his skill set. Hands, route running and not playing to his size. 

position coaching matters. See Josh Allen for a recent case study. 

[Robert Paulson]

why is Jack Campbell 30 picks higher than his ranking? wishful thinking?

 

[TheWeatherMan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I wouldn't move up. But if he is there at #27 I think he is worth the swing. You are getting one of 2 elite level talents in this draft when your other options might be mid to late day 2 level talents who are getting pushed up by a bad year. I still think he goes top 10 though. 

2 elite talents in this entire draft?  Id love to go back and see what you thought of the JA17 pick. 

59 minutes ago, Robert Paulson said:

why is Jack Campbell 30 picks higher than his ranking? wishful thinking?

 

100% this.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

2 elite talents in this entire draft?  Id love to go back and see what you thought of the JA17 pick. 

  

 

I didn't love the Josh pick. That is a matter of record. But my overall track record stands up to scrutiny and is there for people to see. 

 

And yes. I only have two elite level grades in the draft. It is the weakest draft I have evaluated and this is year 10 doing it for me.

[TheWeatherMan]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't love the Josh pick. That is a matter of record. But my overall track record stands up to scrutiny and is there for people to see. 

 

And yes. I only have two elite level grades in the draft. It is the weakest draft I have evaluated and this is year 10 doing it for me.

For credibility purposes, can you explain to the board your methodology for draft eligible player evaluations? 

Edited April 3, 2023 by TheWeatherMan

[Warriorspikes51]

5 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Interesting 

Would you guys consider moving up if he slips ?

 

He might be off our board

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Can you explain to the board your methodology for player evaluations? 

 

It is explained here multiple times, but sure. The basics are:

 

I watch college football during the season and keep a list of guys I see who make plays that impress. Then the first week of January I flesh out the list of guys to watch by position by comparing to some of the established draft nicks and by watching the all star games. But I don't do any grading up until that point. 

 

Once the list is fleshed out I work position by position down my list and I watch minimum 3 full games of every player I grade. Of I haven't seen at least 3 full games of you I don't grade you and you don't go on the board (I have cheated my own rule on that twice that I know of - with Kyle Dugger and small school IOL the Broncos took - I had to use the all start games as a 3rd exposure). 

 

My grading system is broadly reflective of all others:

 

Elite grade - immediate high level playmaker and all pro candidate. 

 

First round grade - either 10 year starter at a premium position, or elite potential within 2 years at a non-premium position. 

 

Second round grade - potential to be a starter but some development needed at a premium position; or 10 year starter at a non-premium position; or (and these are rare but you do get them) elite potential but a complete project. 

 

Third round grade - rotational player at a premium position; or potential to be a starter but some development needed at a non-premium position.

 

Fourth round grade - backup / developmental prospect at a premium position; or rotational player at a non-premium position. 

 

Firth round grade - special teamer who can provide limited cover at a premium spot; or backup / developmental prospect at a non-premium spot. 

 

Then I don't split 6th/7th and UDFAs. That is an entire category to me. Either a special teamer who gives cover at a non-premium position or someone I think is a practice squad player. The reason I don't split them is because in those rounds teams are generally not saying "who is the best guy?" But "who has the best chance of making our 53?" it becomes about the depth of existing roster as much as talent evaluation. 

 

On average I will grade between 125 and 150 players a year. I'd love to do more but it comes down to time and effort. It is a hobby not my job. 

 

There are always going to be guys who go as early as day 2 that I just haven't got around to. I also grade scheme agnostic which is not the same as the job individual teams are doing. There are times when I know a certain type of scheme will value a guy higher than another. 

Edited April 3, 2023 by GunnerBill

[TheWeatherMan]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is explained here multiple times, but sure. The basics are:

 

I watch college football during the season and keep a list of guys I see who make plays that impress. Then the first week of January I flesh out the list of guys to watch by position by comparing to some of the established draft nicks and by watching the all star games. But I don't do any grading up until that point. 

 

Once the list is fleshed out I work position by position down my list and I watch minimum 3 full games of every player I grade. Of I haven't seen at least 3 full games of you I don't grade you and you don't go on the board (I have cheated my own rule on that twice that I know of - with Kyle Dugger and small school IOL the Broncos took - I had to use the all start games as a 3rd exposure). 

 

My grading system is broadly reflective of all others:

 

Elite grade - immediate high level playmaker and all pro candidate. 

 

First round grade - either 10 year starter at a premium position, or elite potential within 2 years at a non-premium position. 

 

Second round grade - potential to be a starter but some development needed at a premium position; or 10 year starter at a non-premium position; or (and these are rare but you do get them) elite potential but a complete project. 

 

Third round grade - rotational player at a premium position; or potential to be a starter but some development needed at a non-premium position.

 

Fourth round grade - backup / developmental prospect at a premium position; or rotational player at a non-premium position. 

 

Firth round grade - special teamer who can provide limited cover at a premium spot; or backup / developmental prospect at a non-premium spot. 

 

Then I don't split 6th/7th and UDFAs. That is an entire category to me. Either a special teamer who gives cover at a non-premium position or someone I think is a practice squad player. The reason I don't split them is because in those rounds teams are generally not saying "who is the best guy?" But "who has the best chance of making our 53?" it becomes about the depth of existing roster as much as talent evaluation. 

 

Thanks for the explanation.  Sounds like a better assessment than what most members like @NewEra perform (exclusively highlight videos) but still not nearly as comprehensive as the analysis by sports reporters who do this for a living.  So why should your assessment be regarded as reliable or in line with the professionals?  Where’s the added value? 

Edited April 3, 2023 by TheWeatherMan

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Thanks for the explanation.  Sounds like a better assessment than what most members like @NewEra perform (exclusively highlight videos) but still not nearly as comprehensive as the analysis by sports reporters who do this for a living.  So why should your assessment be regarded as reliable or in line with the the professionals?  Where’s the added value? 

 

I am not trying to "add value" so much as give people another perspective. It is up to them what they make of it. You can all go and read what NFL.com thinks. You can all go and read what Mel Kiper thinks. 

 

I do it as a hobby. I share it on here because generally people are interested in it. You might not be, that's your prerogative. I feel confident enough that I know what I am talking about, but I don't pretend I am perfect or get everything right.

[NewEra]

42 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Thanks for the explanation.  Sounds like a better assessment than what most members like @NewEra perform (exclusively highlight videos) but still not nearly as comprehensive as the analysis by sports reporters who do this for a living.  So why should your assessment be regarded as reliable or in line with the professionals?  Where’s the added value? 

Lol.  I don’t claim to be any more knowledgeable than anyone.  I spend a lot of time researching scouting reports and i watch a lot of highlight tapes. Then I choose a few guys that I want to watch more in-depth and watch a game tape or two of them. I don’t watch game tape of everyone and I don’t claim to.  This year, I’ve watched game tape of the top 5 WRs, Dalton Kincaid, Anton harrison, Darnell Wright, Jack Campbell, Trenton Simpson.

 

going to watch Sanders vs LSU today if I have time.  
 

Living rent free ftw!   

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not trying to "add value" so much as give people another perspective. It is up to them what they make of it. You can all go and read what NFL.com thinks. You can all go and read what Mel Kiper thinks. 

 

I do it as a hobby. I share it on here because generally people are interested in it. You might not be, that's your prerogative. I feel confident enough that I know what I am talking about, but I don't pretend I am perfect or get everything right.

Dude is like my scorned ex.  It was love at first sight for him and he can’t let me go.  

[TheWeatherMan]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not trying to "add value" so much as give people another perspective. It is up to them what they make of it. You can all go and read what NFL.com thinks. You can all go and read what Mel Kiper thinks. 

 

I do it as a hobby. I share it on here because generally people are interested in it. You might not be, that's your prerogative. I feel confident enough that I know what I am talking about, but I don't pretend I am perfect or get everything right.

But don’t you agree that your assessment is very short sighted?  You select players based on standout plays and then assess based on ~3 games?  
 

In my opinion, your plan of assessment to include the collection of data (plays/stats), analysis/processing of that data (stats/data), and the exploitation of the data is all a very flawed.  

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

But don’t you agree that your assessment is very short sighted?  You select players based on standout plays and then assess based on ~3 games?  
 

In my opinion, your plan of assessment to include the collection of data (plays/stats), analysis/processing of that data (stats/data), and the exploitation of the data is all a very flawed.  

 

I don't only select on standout plays, no. And no I don't agree it is very short sighted. 3 games is normally enough in my experience to get a feel for who a guy is and what his strengths and weaknesses are. If I haven't got a feel I watch more games. I have watched 7 full games of Quentin Johnston for example because I have found him a hard grading job. 

 

I am not saying my process would stand up against a full time NFL scout. It is definitely imperfect. But its results over 10 years suggest it stacks up enough to have a reasonably qualified view of NFL draft prospects. It isn't perfect. I miss plenty. So do the pros. If you are trying to turn NFL player evaluation into a perfect science you will likely fail. Or you will succeed and become a billionaire. 

 

 

Edited April 3, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Royale with Cheese]

8 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

Interesting 

Would you guys consider moving up if he slips ?

 

 

I would absolutely take this guy if he's as good as advertised.  We need some attitude on defense and he brings it.

Let this guy dominate, help win a Super Bowl, he becomes too much of an issue or headache a few years later, trade him for a 1st round pick to a team like the Cowboys.  Then we draft an offensive lineman to protect Allen with that pick.  Boom.

Edited April 3, 2023 by Royale with Cheese