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Beane again showing why he is a top GM


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21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The only aim should be. I agree. But the idea that anything short of that should be classified as failure.... I mean I just don't think 31 teams fail each year. It isn't realistic.


It’s reasonable to assume only 5-6 teams have a significant chance for that “ultimate success” though.  The rest aren’t really “failing”, as they weren’t legitimate contenders. 

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20 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

Well it depends on how you fail.  If you have a bunch of injuries across the DL and all the guys you drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds to get to the QB can’t sniff him I think that’s failure.  If you’ve only drafted 1 starting OL in 4 years and he’s horrible, that’s failure.  If your idea of giving Josh the best weapons to succeed is settling for Singletary, a FA RB, who is getting zero attention on the open market I think that’s failure. We’ve been to 1 AFCG in the last 4 years and got blown out.  That’s failure IMO

 

Is your horseshoe upside down?   😋

 

Are the Bengals failures? They lost a SB and missed a chance to go to another. There is a gray area unless you have rings to show for your season. We are consistently near the peak of the NFL pyramid. Need a few upgrades and some luck. 

 

Almost every fan base in the league would love to trade places with us. Let’s try to keep some perspective. 

 

 

.

Edited by Augie
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37 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Success for most sports fans is against expectations. For example, I am a big St. Bonnies basketball fan.  An A-10 title and/or a trip to the NCAA's is a successful season.  A bid to the NCAA tournament is not a successful year for North Carolina or Kentucky though. 

Its a bit different in the NFL.  Texans fan's are not going into next season expecting to win a super bowl.  Nor were Bills fans 10 years ago.   Its kudos to the McBeane regime that the have rasied the bar.  But the bar is raised. After the 2020 season, no one expected a regression to losing in the divisional round of the playoffs.  But due to 13 seconds we finished further back in 2021 season than the 2020 season.  However most fans were expecting at least a return to the championship game in 2022, and we fell well short of that goal, getting spanked in the divisional round.   The bar has been somewhat lowered now, most Bills fans will be happy to get to the AFC Championship game next year, and will consider a super bowl appearance a great season.   I think people start looking being upset with sports managements when they are realistically need to lower thier expectations in the near future.  So 31 teams don't feel.   Without reviewing the results, I would guess about 8 teams a year exceed expectations enough to consider the season a success.  

 

Whether fans are upset or not is not the right barometer for success and failure. 

 

Personally I think Bills fans perceptions are partially warped from having been in division with greatest dynasty in NFL history for 20 years. 

 

What I will say is big picture if the Bills get a 10-12 year run of elite QB play from Allen (we have had 3 so far) and don't win a Lombardi in the big picture that is failure. I think it is easier to judge on that level of sample size because the inbuilt and inherent randomness of sport - especially the NFL - is more likely to balance itself out over that period than over a single season.

Edited by GunnerBill
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13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Whether fans are upset or not is not the right barometer for success and failure. 

 

Personally I think Bills fans perceptions are partially warped from having been in division with greatest dynasty in NFL history for 20 years. 

 

What I will say is big picture if the Bills get a 10-12 year run of elite QB play from Allen (we have had 3 so far) and don't win a Lombardi in the big picture that is failure. I think it is easier to judge on that level of sample size because the inbuilt and inherent randomness of sport - especially the NFL - is more likely to balance itself out over that period than over a single season.

 Fans are customers. Every single one is entitled to their personal opinion of whether or not the team succeeded.  Its a strange customer relationship, because most fans will continue to buy the product they are disappointed in.

From a management perspective success is measured by owner happiness. Full stop. Owners tend to have some concern for fan's opinions of where things are at, but they are the final arbiters.   The average NFL coach lasts a couple of years.  A few outliers like Jeff Fisher can last 20 years without winning a championship.  That vast majority of owners wouldn't have kept Fisher for that long. In the end, its all measured by money. 

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On 3/15/2023 at 5:25 PM, HomeskillitMoorman said:

Unless the draft can land us a competent Head Coach, our biggest liability will still remain

If we lose in the 1st rd of the playoffs this year their will be a lot less vomits emotes and way more thumbs up emotes.

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18 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Is your horseshoe upside down?   😋

 

Are the Bengals failures? They lost a SB and missed a chance to go to another. There is a gray area unless you have rings to show for your season. We are consistently near the peak of the NFL pyramid. Need a few upgrades and some luck. 

 

Almost every fan base in the league would love to trade places with us. Let’s try to keep some perspective. 

 

 

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Peak of the NFL pyramid? Not in the playoffs. There’s a lot less luck involved in the NFL than other sports. 1&2 seeds go the majority of the time. 
We haven’t won a AFCCG in 4 years. The one we made we were blown out.  
The Bengals beat KC in arrowhead in the AFCCG in the first year of their run. This year was their second year, they walked into OP and thoroughly whooped our a$$. Then lost on a last second kick on their second straight AFCCG in KC against the eventual champs. So comparing the Bengals in their second year of their run to us, in year 4,  is insane.
No matter how much you don’t want to believe it, the Bengals have passed up by and its soley because of Beane’s failure to build the OL/DL and surround Josh with another weapon not named Diggs. 

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7 minutes ago, Chaos said:

 Fans are customers. Every single one is entitled to their personal opinion of whether or not the team succeeded.  Its a strange customer relationship, because most fans will continue to buy the product they are disappointed in.

From a management perspective success is measured by owner happiness. Full stop. Owners tend to have some concern for fan's opinions of where things are at, but they are the final arbiters.   The average NFL coach lasts a couple of years.  A few outliers like Jeff Fisher can last 20 years without winning a championship.  That vast majority of owners wouldn't have kept Fisher for that long. In the end, its all measured by money. 

 

Sorry, but it seems you lost everything after the bold. That  made a lot of sense to me. 

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8 minutes ago, Chaos said:

 Fans are customers. Every single one is entitled to their personal opinion of whether or not the team succeeded.  Its a strange customer relationship, because most fans will continue to buy the product they are disappointed in.

From a management perspective success is measured by owner happiness. Full stop. Owners tend to have some concern for fan's opinions of where things are at, but they are the final arbiters.   The average NFL coach lasts a couple of years.  A few outliers like Jeff Fisher can last 20 years without winning a championship.  That vast majority of owners wouldn't have kept Fisher for that long. In the end, its all measured by money. 

 

Which still doesn't make fan hapiness a good judgment for, well, anything. Especially with the limited understanding amongst most fans of what they are actually watching.

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9 minutes ago, Shanahan's Horseshoe said:

Peak of the NFL pyramid? Not in the playoffs. There’s a lot less luck involved in the NFL than other sports. 1&2 seeds go the majority of the time. 
We haven’t won a AFCCG in 4 years. The one we made we were blown out.  
The Bengals beat KC in arrowhead in the AFCCG in the first year of their run. This year was their second year, they walked into OP and thoroughly whooped our a$$. Then lost on a last second kick on their second straight AFCCG in KC against the eventual champs. So comparing the Bengals in their second year of their run to us, in year 4,  is insane.
No matter how much you don’t want to believe it, the Bengals have passed up by and its soley because of Beane’s failure to build the OL/DL and surround Josh with another weapon not named Diggs. 

 

“Near the peak”, which I believe to be true, as a regular Super Bowl favorite.

 

I don’t feel the need to extend this. 

 

.

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:


It’s reasonable to assume only 5-6 teams have a significant chance for that “ultimate success” though.  The rest aren’t really “failing”, as they weren’t legitimate contenders. 


“First place loser”

 

”Coming in second is the same as losing”

 

”Mr. Autry’s favorite horse was called ‘Champion’. he ain’t never had one called ‘Runner Up’…”

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2 minutes ago, BBFL said:


“First place loser”

 

”Coming in second is the same as losing”

 

”Mr. Autry’s favorite horse was called ‘Champion’. he ain’t never had one called ‘Runner Up’…”

 

Are you a parent?       😋

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On 3/18/2023 at 4:34 PM, Eastport bills said:

Nicely orchestrated by a couple great Bills fans. Just imagining watching the Bills with my favorite beverage with boats passing in the background. Not too bad. Little concerned with the lack of activity in FA with Rogers and an improved Dolphins team in the AFCE. 

Thank you.  It is a nice set up.  

 

I agree.  Would like to see a couple more solid players brought in.  But to be honest with Beane's track record the past few years w Free Agents and drafting, I really don't have a lot of confidence in his evaluation of talent.  The brilliance of Josh Allen has been able to mask an overall somewhat mediocre roster.  Especially on both lines.  Beane has really missed w our big guys.  Lets hope that turns around shortly.  

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On 3/18/2023 at 6:24 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Whether fans are upset or not is not the right barometer for success and failure. 

 

Personally I think Bills fans perceptions are partially warped from having been in division with greatest dynasty in NFL history for 20 years. 

 

What I will say is big picture if the Bills get a 10-12 year run of elite QB play from Allen (we have had 3 so far) and don't win a Lombardi in the big picture that is failure. I think it is easier to judge on that level of sample size because the inbuilt and inherent randomness of sport - especially the NFL - is more likely to balance itself out over that period than over a single season.

Well said Gunner.  And that is why people who are scared of the Jets if Aaron Rodgers ends up there need to step off the ledge.  In his 15 years as starting QB for the Packers, they made the Super Bowl one time in his third year after the 2010 season.  And now in his twilight years there is no way he can carry a team.  The Packers last year were a run first team.  Everyone blames his WR's the past couple years.  That's nonsense.  He looked tentative as can be whenever he dropped back to pass.  The best passing game the Packers had all last season was when Jordan Love came in the second half against Philly on Sunday nite.  And he had the same receivers that Rodgers had.

 

As for the Bills, Beane has not done a good enough job so far building a great roster around Josh Allen.  It isn't terrible.  But the O line has certainly been sub par.  And other then Diggs, there are no weapons that scare opposing teams.  The roster has been good enough to beat the decent to poor teams.  But in crunch time in the playoffs it has not been good enough.  And the coaching has not been good enough.  Hopefully that will change this year.  But I really question Beane and McDermott's ability to put a championship type roster together.  Not saying it can't happen.  I just have my concerns.

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6 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

 

 

As for the Bills, Beane has not done a good enough job so far building a great roster around Josh Allen.  It isn't terrible.  But the O line has certainly been sub par.  And other then Diggs, there are no weapons that scare opposing teams.  The roster has been good enough to beat the decent to poor teams.  But in crunch time in the playoffs it has not been good enough.  And the coaching has not been good enough.  Hopefully that will change this year.  But I really question Beane and McDermott's ability to put a championship type roster together.  Not saying it can't happen.  I just have my concerns.

 

 

many of us share those exact concerns

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18 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

Thank you.  It is a nice set up.  

 

I agree.  Would like to see a couple more solid players brought in.  But to be honest with Beane's track record the past few years w Free Agents and drafting, I really don't have a lot of confidence in his evaluation of talent.  The brilliance of Josh Allen has been able to mask an overall somewhat mediocre roster.  Especially on both lines.  Beane has really missed w our big guys.  Lets hope that turns around shortly.  

Good point, maybe asking him to make bold moves is the kiss of death.

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Probably not a complete list but here are key offseason signings, and some were trades. The approach remains the same on offense if you look at it:

1) Reaches for WR that didn't work out - Benjamin, Matthews, Streater, Kerley, Roberts, Sanders, Crowder, Bolden, Brown (rd 2), Beasley (rd 2). 

2) Bargain shopping at OL - many misses and one-year stopgaps. Morse the priciest is the only one that stuck. 

3) RB - See OL - Tolbert, Ivory, Breida, Johnson, Gore 

 

We still have Morse and a good pick in Dawkins. The rest of the OL could be anyone. The hope is McGovern works out but could wind up like Spain, Williams, Feliciano. 

At WR it is essentially Diggs and trying to find out who can be #2 and #3. At RB we hope its Cook, or he goes down the road of Singletary being the best we have but always looking for an upgrade. 

 

2017: Hyde, Poyer, Holmes, Dimarco, Hauschka, Hodges, Tolbert, Ducasse, Streater, C Brown, R Davis, P Brown, A Bolden, K Benjamin, J Matthews

2018: Ivory, Bodine, Barkley, D Anderson, J Phillips, R Bush, Murphy, Lotulelei, Stanford, Gaines, V Davis, Newhouse, AJ McCaron, Kerley, T Pryor

2019: Beasley, J Brown, Morse, Spain, Kroft, Gore, Nsekhe, Feliciano, K Johnson, A Roberts, S Long, Waddle

2020: T Jones, Diggs, D Williams, Addison, Jefferson, Butler, Matakevich, Klein, Norman

2021: Trubisky, Breida, Sanders, Powell, Hollister, Hart, Lamp, Haack

2022: Keenum, Johnson, Crowder, Austin, Howard, Quessenberry, Saffold, Van Roten, Miller, Lawson, D Jones, J Phillips, Settle, Hines, Brown (rd 2), Beasley (rd 2)

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6 hours ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

But to be honest with Beane's track record the past few years w Free Agents and drafting, I really don't have a lot of confidence in his evaluation of talent. 

I certainly don't trust him/his staff to evaluate pass rushers or running backs.

When you draft a back in the 3rd and let him sign with a crap team for $3.75 million (I bet the Bills could've resigned for less) that says he doesn't hold much value. So a third-round pick you don't wanna resign for $3.5 million. 

Add in Moss for a third and that's pretty bad management of draft capital.

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