Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Do you still feel this way? I respect your opinion around here a ton, but man he goes completely ghost mode too often to be #2 to me. In my head he had a terribly inconsistent year.  I wanted to look at the stats to see if maybe my memory was off/exaggerated.  I looked at the games, and it was even worse than i remembered even to my surprise.

His stretch headed into the playoffs was atrocious.  We had a great record this year but I think it was despite him, not because he brought much.  How many 2-3 catch games under 30yds.

These lead to stalled drives, 3 n outs that kill field position, gasses the defense.  Im thinking it led Diggs to the most attention hes seen in his entire career, haaaad to lead to some of the frustration on his part.

If Stefs going to eat double teams the whole year, he deserves to have someone on the other side just eating because of it. Instead it felt like, double teamed? Welp try harder because nobody else wants to help move the ball.

 

I like Gabe i really do, he seems like a quietly driven dude. I saw how hard he worked last offseason! Was it truly the injury, what did you see brother? Honest good faith question here.

 

 

Yes. This thread was after this season. I still feel that way. Gabe Davis is a low end #2 but he is a #2. It doesn't mean I want him to be the Bills #2. But he has production. He is just not a chain mover type of #2 receiver. He is a big play guy and not a conventional one because it isn't break out speed. It is good body control, a good release package and an ability to run a certain package of routes - especially the post and comeback concepts - well. 

 

Someone hit the nail on the head earlier, in an elite receiving corps he is your #3 outside guy who can also play some big slot. And people want the Bills to have an elite receiving corps, I get that. But it leads them a little to overreaction. I don't think the Bills will pay Gabe, but someone will. He will get a decent FA deal this time next year commensurate with being a mid to low end #2 receiver. The Michael Gallop deal, plus a bit for 2 years inflation.

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

He does not fit us as a #2

 

That is a different point and I see that argument.

Edited March 28, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You cant just look at a full year stat line and get an accurate depiction.  How many games did he meaningfully contribute?  If im very lenient I can say 7 of 15 games. In reality it was 9 games that he sat along for the ride.  He cant get open on short/intermediate stuff, which semi forced our hand into the whole 50yd bomb on 3rd and 4 scenario we were in all year.

 

Thats a great skill to have for a #3, but i need my #2 to get open short and intermediate first, then if you can hit the deep stuff great.

 

How many ppl said the offense looked best early season on the dink n dubk?  Cant do that when your #2 needs to get deep to have any chance at seperation.  Diggs was being asked to pull the weight of two. He does not fit us as a #2

I think this analysis is accurate. It doesn't look probable right now that the Bills are likely to acquire Hopkins or OBJ. They are supposedly high on the new FA acquisitions, neither of which screams even potential #2. Unlikely a draft pick will fall to 27 that will fulfill that role. There's a fair crowd that is now going with we were victims of bad breaks, injury, whatnot last year, so the chances of a SB are in reality unchanged and running it back is not a bad proposal. I think there still needs to be investment in oline and upgrade at wr2, te2. I expect a good chance 2 of the 3 day one and two picks go for the D again (LB, DL). 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This has gotta be lack of separation right? These two guys had the same QB throwing them the ball

Beane dis mention Gabe’s ankle being an issue. That certainly hurts the ability to separate. Also, Diggs is one of the best route runners in the NFL. That’s why we gave up so much to bring him here from Minny. He’s been the focal point since arriving. Gabe was in his first year as a starter, with a new oc. Thinking an off season of film study and getting the ankle ready will help. I don’t think he was brought in as Diggs’ replacement. He the #2 wr and I feel he performed well overall in that role. 

[Behindenemylines]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:51 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

Agreed but I do think he is better than he appears to play actually. He’s an enigma for certain

[mjt328]

Fans always look at everything as black and white.   

Either Gabe Davis is really good and underappreciated... or he totally sucks and doesn't even belong on an NFL roster.

The reality is somewhere in the middle.  

 

Looking around the NFL, I found only seven teams with a #2 WR that is clearly and significantly better than Davis:

-  Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks

At the same time, there are about eight teams where Davis could potentially be their #1 guy:

-  Ravens, Texans, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, Giants, Packers, Panthers, 

 

The Bills are not in a terrible position with Davis as the #2 receiver.  But in my opinion, this team should be striving to surround Josh Allen with better weapons than "not terrible."  We've seen too many times in the playoffs where opponents succeed in taking away Stefon Diggs, and nobody steps up.  Having two exceptional outside receivers would keep that from happening.

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You cant just look at a full year stat line and get an accurate depiction.  How many games did he meaningfully contribute?  If im very lenient I can say 7 of 15 games. In reality it was 9 games that he sat along for the ride.  He cant get open on short/intermediate stuff, which semi forced our hand into the whole 50yd bomb on 3rd and 4 scenario we were in all year.

 

Thats a great skill to have for a #3, but i need my #2 to get open short and intermediate first, then if you can hit the deep stuff great.

 

How many ppl said the offense looked best early season on the dink n dubk?  Cant do that when your #2 needs to get deep to have any chance at seperation.  Diggs was being asked to pull the weight of two. He does not fit us as a #2

This is a great example of how people misunderstand the reality of pro football.  Other than QBs and maybe a dozen or two dozen other skill players, pro football players do not make meaningful co tri unions in every game, or even half the games.  They do their jobs, and sometimes that results in nice days and sometimes not.   Most running backs aren't over 80 yards every game.  Most receivers don't catch 6 balls every game.   

 

The season stats are exactly the way to measure contribution, because every guy, other than the stars, make plays sporadically. It's their totals that matter, and Davis's totals are healthy.  Not great, but healthy.  

[Jay_Fixit]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a great example of how people misunderstand the reality of pro football.  Other than QBs and maybe a dozen or two dozen other skill players, pro football players do not make meaningful co tri unions in every game, or even half the games.  They do their jobs, and sometimes that results in nice days and sometimes not.   Most running backs aren't over 80 yards every game.  Most receivers don't catch 6 balls every game.   

 

The season stats are exactly the way to measure contribution, because every guy, other than the stars, make plays sporadically. It's their totals that matter, and Davis's totals are healthy.  Not great, but healthy.  

He was 81st in receptions per game

He was 34th in yards per game

He was 186th in catch % right between MVS and Tutu Atwell

 

If he was a 3 then yeah, they’re healthy. But for a number 2, which this team desperately needs, they are not good enough. Which is why the Bills should be looking for a proper 2 unless they feel Davis can improve quite a bit.

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

He was 81st in receptions per game

He was 34th in yards per game

He was 186th in catch % right between MVS and Tutu Atwell

 

If he was a 3 then yeah, they’re healthy. But for a number 2, which this team desperately needs, they are not good enough. Which is why the Bills should be looking for a proper 2 unless they feel Davis can improve quite a bit.

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

I like Gabe a lot and hope he stays, but it has to be noted that he got 20% of his yards and 29% of his TDs in a single game.

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, Dopey said:

Beane dis mention Gabe’s ankle being an issue. That certainly hurts the ability to separate. Also, Diggs is one of the best route runners in the NFL. That’s why we gave up so much to bring him here from Minny. He’s been the focal point since arriving. Gabe was in his first year as a starter, with a new oc. Thinking an off season of film study and getting the ankle ready will help. I don’t think he was brought in as Diggs’ replacement. He the #2 wr and I feel he performed well overall in that role. 

 

The problem I have with this explanation (I’ll give it the benefit to call it explanation instead of excuse), is that we had the same explanation for Gabe in 2021: he had a early season ankle sprain and media members who attend practice like Sal Capaccio said it was visibly hindering him until late in the 2021 season.

 

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/gabriel-davis/10597

 

Same ankle, which he originally injured in the Ravens playoff game 2020.

 

If Davis has had ankle injuries in September practices two years in a row that have hindered him (per the observation of knowledgeable practice observers and his GM) all season for two years in a row, maybe this is a chronic issue or at least an injury that is more likely than not to recur, and therefore we need to consider the player that he is when his ankle is injured, as representing the player we get.

 

Now if somehow he can undergo off season rehab and strengthening or wear a brace or whatever such that the injury doesn’t recur, then sure, consider that off season film study and ankle rehab will help.  But wouldn’t he have done that off-season in 2022?

 

 

[Nephilim17]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He is just not a chain mover type of #2 receiver.

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):
33
35

74

171

13 

37

 

Really? Some of you want that 171 yard big game from Davis and you're good with with four out of six games with 37 yards or less? Really, that's good #2 production?

Not for me. Way too much pressure on Diggs to have monster games and for Josh to run for first downs. Give me a #2 guy that gets 60 to 80 yards from Josh freakin' Allen most weeks.

But keep looking at yardage totals and tell yourself he's what the BIlls need.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Nephilim17

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I like Gabe a lot and hope he stays, but it has to be noted that he got 20% of his yards and 29% of his TDs in a single game.

But that's in the nature of stats,  some big games some not good at all.  

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):
33
35

74

171

13 

37

 

Really? Some of you want that 171 yard big game from Davis and you're good with with four out of six games with 37 yards or less? Really, that's good #2 production?

Not for me. Way too much pressure on Diggs to have monster games and for Josh to run for first downs. Give me a #2 guy that gets 60 to 80 yards from Josh freakin' Allen most weeks.

But keep looking at yardage totals and tell yourself he's what the BIlls need.

Diggs and Davis had more yards than Chase and Higgins, so what does it really matter?  

 

Davis had 9 games under 50 yards. Higgins had 6.   Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

 

These splits you guys are relying on are pretty meaningless.

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But that's in the nature of stats,  some big games some not good at all.  

 

While that’s certainly true overall, I think what some people are looking for is either a higher mean, or a smaller standard deviation.

 

14 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):

 

I think there are all kinds of great discussion points stemming off your thoughts here.

 

The first is, what role was Gabe Davis asked to fill in this offense?  Was he asked to be the chain mover guy, or was he asked to be the aggressive, “we’re taking a shot” route runner?  Did Josh Allen essentially deflate his catch % by sending uncatchable balls thrown under duress or while Davis was double covered or had a DB in position to jump the route?

 

I think there’s some of both, myself.  I can remember some routes Davis ran that were clearly intended as “chain movers” where if he’s open, it should be a straightforward easy throw - and he dropped balls he should have caught at times.  I can also remember some deep shots or throws into coverage where I thought “Geesh, Allen is doing his pal Davis no favors on the catch % there”, and where there was another receiver (Knox or McKenzie, sometimes Hines or Shakir) who was clearly intended to be the chain-mover - and Allen passed him up and sacrificed a 1st down in favor of a low % deep shot to Gabe.  I don’t have access to the kind of stats that would let me comb out how common each situation was.

 

Anyway, I think a fair portrayal of Davis’ contributions last season is probably a bit more complicated than looking at his targets and catches and yards on a per game basis and putting it all on him.

[Nephilim17]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

Show me another #2 receiver with a top quarterback that had a stretch of 6 games last year with 4 game under 40 yards receiving. I looked at the top-10 receiver combos last year and NO ONE was as inconsistent as Gabe. And that's with Josh Allen throwing to him.

 

Please show me a top QB with a number two guy with the long stretches of low-yardage games like Gabe.

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

I did the math. That’s why I made the post.

 

81st in receptions per game. Not receptions. That’s WR 3 worthy.

 

34th in yards… yeah, cause he got 1/5 of those in one game. Otherwise he’s around 48 yards per game. And yeah, that’s how stats work sometimes but he was realllllly a non factor in most games.

 

He had 2 games with more than 5 receptions. 2.

 

He had 8 games with under 40 yards.

 

Unless he improves, he’s not WR 2 worthy and Buffalo should look to upgrade.

 

I like Davis, but we’re not jumping chasms here. He’s just kinda meh.

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

While that’s certainly true overall, I think what some people are looking for is either a higher mean, or a smaller standard deviation.

 

 

 

Well, that's a very nice statement of the point.   However, I think there are two things to recognize here:

 

First, there aren't a lot of #2 receivers who have a higher mean.  The mean is just the average of the total, and as we've kept saying, his total yards are good for a #2 receiver.  Yes, the best #2s are a couple hundred yards ahead, but most #2s are behind Davis and those have a lower mean.   

 

Second, without having gone to study the data, I think it's a good bet that most #2s have a large standard deviation like Davis does.   Every week there's a different game plan, a different focus of the offense, different defenders, and then a different game.  I suspect the number of targets for most #2s varies widely from week to week.   Why?   Because every game is different, and because if a receiver is getting the same number of targets every week, that means the offense is predictable.  

 

Bottom line, I think people's expectations are unreasonable.   I just looked back over the past 20 years.  Bills had two #2s who had more yards than Davis.   Beasley with Brown and Lee Evans with Moulds.   In both cases, they weren't a lot higher.   Woods never did it.  Granted, the teams were bad, but the QBs were good - Allen and Bledsoe.  Having a 1000-yard #2 is a luxury, and complaining about the standard deviation or catch % is nitpicking - yes it would be good to improve those things, but none of it raises Davis to the level of being a problem.   I will be completely satisfied to see him on the field come September, and I'll expect him to have 1000 yards by the end of the season.  

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Show me another #2 receiver with a top quarterback that had a stretch of 6 games last year with 4 game under 40 yards receiving. I looked at the top-10 receiver combos last year and NO ONE was as inconsistent as Gabe. And that's with Josh Allen throwing to him.

 

Please show me a top QB with a number two guy with the long stretches of low-yardage games like Gabe.

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

Jamarr Chase missed like 5 games this year due to injury

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

Well, I've looked at the top-10 receiver duos in the league and Davis' numbers stick out as the worst for consistency with maybe the exception of 32-year-old Thielen in Minny — and with Cousins throwing to him. 

 

Also, and I think this is huge, we have a top-3 QB in Allen so I don't want our number two guy posting merely acceptable or average numbers — I want him to have dominant numbers as a reflection of who is throwing to him.

 

I — and many others — strongly disagree that Davis' numbers are "the nature of random numbers." Some athletes are streaky and others are consistent. I think consistency is a huge virtue as a number two guy because there will be games and teams who figure out how to minimize Diggs — and that's when we need the number two guy to step up. And what, God forbid, if Diggs gets hurt?

Belichick has been famous for taking away a team's top weapon and others will do it to us too. We need a guy that gives us a dependable high-end receiving weapon. Maybe that will be Knox (we need to throw to him more to find out) but until then, it has to be our number two WR.

I think most observers and fans here don't think that Davis is a high-end number two guy. You do and that's your right but many, including myself, think differently and want a replacement. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

 

[BananaB]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Diggs and Davis had more yards than Chase and Higgins, so what does it really matter?  

 

Davis had 9 games under 50 yards. Higgins had 6.   Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

 

These splits you guys are relying on are pretty meaningless.

So Gabe is consistently under 50 while Higgins is over.  Sounds right, Gabes as inconsistent as you can get. 

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

[Shaw66]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

Well, I've looked at the top-10 receiver duos in the league and Davis' numbers stick out as the worst for consistency with maybe the exception of 32-year-old Thielen in Minny — and with Cousins throwing to him. 

 

Also, and I think this is huge, we have a top-3 QB in Allen so I don't want our number two guy posting merely acceptable or average numbers — I want him to have dominant numbers as a reflection of who is throwing to him.

 

I — and many others — strongly disagree that Davis' numbers are "the nature of random numbers." Some athletes are streaky and others are consistent. I think consistency is a huge virtue as a number two guy because there will be games and teams who figure out how to minimize Diggs — and that's when we need the number two guy to step up. And what, God forbid, if Diggs gets hurt?

Belichick has been famous for taking away a team's top weapon and others will do it to us too. We need a guy that gives us a dependable high-end receiving weapon. Maybe that will be Knox (we need to throw to him more to find out) but until then, it has to be our number two WR.

I think most observers and fans here don't think that Davis is a high-end number two guy. You do and that's your right but many, including myself, think differently and want a replacement.    

 

 

Have you studied the game plans of every game where Davis went under 50 yards for the game?   Have you studied the defensive  alignments on every play to determine what defenses he faced?   Until you've done that, you can't convince me that Davis's inconsistency is based on Davis's limitations, because Davis is not the only person who determines whether Davis is open and whether Allen throws to him.   Have you studied Davis's blocking assignments on every play and graded his performance?    Until you've done that, I am NOT going to conclude that Davis is a problem because his 800+ receiving yards weren't spread across 15 games as evenly as you would like.  

 

The Bills were 7th in the league in passing yards per game, seventh in the league in passer rating, second in the league in passing touchdowns.   They were second in the league behind KC in total yards per game and total points per game.  KC's second receiver, Smith-Schuster, averaged 58+ yards per game, Davis averaged 55+.  Smith-Schuster had seven games below forty yards, three in a row, then two about 80, then three more in a row below forty. 

 

You guys get lost in these little data points and attach great meaning to them to support your subjective feelings because you remember some balls Davis dropped.   

 

Several years ago there was a debate that went on for weeks about how much better the Bills would be if Tyrod Taylor just threw over the middle more.   He was near the bottom of the league in throwing to the middle.  It was so much nonsense.   If he'd thrown over the middle the average number of times, that would have been less that two times a game more than he was throwing.   The stat simply did not translate into something meaningful, and these stats people are pointing to about Davis don't mean much, either. 

 

The Bills have a very good passing offense and excellent total offense.  Davis is a significant contributor to that offense.  To talk about replacing him is silly.  You're actually going to burn a first-round pick on a guy you want to be the #2 receiver, instead of an offensive lineman or a linebacker?   Really?   And don't say they can get a guy in the third.   Counting on a third rounder to start and put up 800 yards is a pipe dream.  

 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Have you studied the game plans of every game where Davis went under 50 yards for the game?   Have you studied the defensive  alignments on every play to determine what defenses he faced?   Until you've done that, you can't convince me that Davis's inconsistency is based on Davis's limitations, because Davis is not the only person who determines whether Davis is open and whether Allen throws to him.   Have you studied Davis's blocking assignments on every play and graded his performance?    Until you've done that, I am NOT going to conclude that Davis is a problem because his 800+ receiving yards weren't spread across 15 games as evenly as you would like.  

 

The Bills were 7th in the league in passing yards per game, seventh in the league in passer rating, second in the league in passing touchdowns.   They were second in the league behind KC in total yards per game and total points per game.  KC's second receiver, Smith-Schuster, averaged 58+ yards per game, Davis averaged 55+.  Smith-Schuster had seven games below forty yards, three in a row, then two about 80, then three more in a row below forty. 

 

You guys get lost in these little data points and attach great meaning to them to support your subjective feelings because you remember some balls Davis dropped.   

 

Several years ago there was a debate that went on for weeks about how much better the Bills would be if Tyrod Taylor just threw over the middle more.   He was near the bottom of the league in throwing to the middle.  It was so much nonsense.   If he'd thrown over the middle the average number of times, that would have been less that two times a game more than he was throwing.   The stat simply did not translate into something meaningful, and these stats people are pointing to about Davis don't mean much, either. 

 

The Bills have a very good passing offense and excellent total offense.  Davis is a significant contributor to that offense.  To talk about replacing him is silly.  You're actually going to burn a first-round pick on a guy you want to be the #2 receiver, instead of an offensive lineman or a linebacker?   Really?   And don't say they can get a guy in the third.   Counting on a third rounder to start and put up 800 yards is a pipe dream.  

 

Lmao people in that Tyrod debate used to say he doesn’t need to throw over the middle more because he’s already really good and our franchise QB. 
 

 

Were you one of those people?

 

You draft a WR in the first because Diggs is no spring chicken and this is likely Davis’ last year in a Bills uni.

Edited March 29, 2023 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, BananaB said:

So Gabe is consistently under 50 while Higgins is over.  Sounds right, Gabes as inconsistent as you can get. 

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

[BananaB]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

You don’t think consistent WRs are more productive, long term I bet you’re wrong. If you’re not consistent and can’t be counted on you’re not gonna last long, why do you think Gabe is such a hot topic this off-season. Gabe got good yards and TDs but from game to game he’s below average. One blowout game he surpassed his average yards by 3x.  How often does that happen? Once a year if he’s lucky.  Does that make the other games less significant because he put up nice numbers in a blowout?  His inconsistencies stalled drives, missed points and led to some turnovers.  The overall numbers don’t mean ***** if you can’t be average on a game to game basis, and he wasn’t. Gabe was lucky the Bills had absolutely no other options last year to put in his spot. 
 

He was 186th in catch percentage, that’s just ***** terrible. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by BananaB

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

The gameplan was target Davis 10 times and him only catch 3 balls for 39 yards.

[ColoradoBills]

50 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

 

Yes.  He needs at a minimum 2 more targets per game.

 

The other WR debate (which is part of the Davis debate) is the slot.

Fans want a top-notch slot receiver and I want the following.

 

Diggs, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield and Davis all can play inside and outside.

Diggs takes off about 25% of the offensive plays.  That's just the way he is.

Davis should have his total # of snaps diminished, especially if he can't prove to catch the ball better.

 

It seems to me that having a bigger rotation both on the outside and slot could be a real nightmare for opposing Ds.

Put pressure on the NCB or the zone area protecting against the slot receiver.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

Tell that to KD.  Our OL was so pathetic we had to leave him in there to block most of the 1st half of the season.  Dorsey needs to use the same receiver distribution game plan as he used against the Rams & Titans last year. Diggs had 4 tds and 24 targets. Yet JA distributed the ball to 7/8 different pass receivers in those games.  

Edited March 29, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

You don’t think consistent WRs are more productive, long term I bet you’re wrong. If you’re not consistent and can’t be counted on you’re not gonna last long, why do you think Gabe is such a hot topic this off-season. Gabe got good yards and TDs but from game to game he’s below average. One blowout game he surpassed his average yards by 3x.  How often does that happen? Once a year if he’s lucky.  Does that make the other games less significant because he put up nice numbers in a blowout?  His inconsistencies stalled drives, missed points and led to some turnovers.  The overall numbers don’t mean ***** if you can’t be average on a game to game basis, and he wasn’t. Gabe was lucky the Bills had absolutely no other options last year to put in his spot. 
 

He was 186th in catch percentage, that’s just ***** terrible. 

I don't know on what basis you'd make that bet.   One of my principle points is that Davis's games under 50 yards are much too small a sample to say that he's inconsistent.   The variations in his yardage over one season of games simply isn't sufficient data to establish that he is "inconsistent.   Furthermore, as I said, until you know the play calls, the defenses, the game plan, etc., you can't know whether the Inconsistency you see is caused by Davis or other factors. 

 

Second, I don't have any reason to believe that consistency in this data is better in the long term.  I certainly know I want an inconsistent receiver who gets me 1200 yards over a consistent one who gets me 600.  That's a no brainer.   If I have two guys, one at 1200 and one at 1000, yes, I'll take the guy I can count on every day, but in between those two extremes, I don't know where the cut off point is.  What I do know is that Davis got a lot of yards last season, and that's valuable.  

 

You say his inconsistencies led to stalled drives, missed points and some turnovers.   I think that's nonsense until you prove it.   In the first place, as I said, the Bills were 7-2 in his games under 40 yards.  So, I only care about the two games the Bills lost.   And in those two games, you'd have to find the plays where he had drops or ran bad patterns that led to those things.   Do the research and come back with some actual data and we can talk. 

 

You guys seem to be ignorant of the fact - the fact - that the deeper  you go into fine tuned data, the less meaningful the data is.   When have you ever heard catch percentage cited as the measure of a good receiver?    It's a very important piece of data for coaches to start with, but it is only a starting point.   The number of times he caught the ball compared to the number of times he was targeted until you back out of Davis's totals - and every other receiver - all of the bad throws and all of the plays where he was double teamed and all of the plays where the corner made a good play on the ball.   After you've done that for all receivers, tell me where he stand in catch percentage, and then we'll have a stat that at least we can talk about.  

 

You want to talk about problems the Bills have, about things that really need to improve?   Talk to me about Dion Dawkins.  Talk to me about Spencer Brown.   The Bills have two starting wideouts and two starting tackles.   The #1 tackle is mediocre at best, and the #2 tackle probably was one of the worst right tackles in the league.   Davis wasn't close, nowhere near close to being the worst #2 wideout in the league.   

 

Beane says he has no worries about Davis.   I'll take his opinion over yours. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

So, I had to look at the catch percentage data.   I mean, who ever looks at that?   But I was curious.

 

Davis is 186th, at 51%.   See any other names under 60%?  I did.  

 

Names like Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Elijah Moore, Julio Jones, Davante Adams.   Maybe it's time for the 49ers to move on from Samuel.   

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane says he has no worries about Davis.   I'll take his opinion over yours. 

 

His actions say otherwise. He spent much of the end of last season trying to sign OBJ, and he said just a couple days ago they still aren't out on him. They've been heavily connected to DeAndre Hopkins. So Beane clearly is trying to find an upgrade to Davis, regardless of what he says.

 

This is similar to how he's been talking glowingly about Edmunds for a year now and made it sound like he was a definite extension priority. But his actions said otherwise. He always signs his cornerstone players early but let Edmunds make it to free agency.

 

Don't listen to Beane's words. Watch what he does. That will tell you his true opinion on the matter.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by HappyDays

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers.

It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3 metrics (what was the hypothetical catch probability given some hypothetical WR and then + or - on that - if it was a gimmee 99% catch probability catch and the WR muffs it, big down-score; if it was a low probability circus catch, big up score).

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

 

I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders or whatever they do.  I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind.  But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go.

 

For those who love it, or even just want to understand it, here are the numbers Walder refers to:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

Diggs ratings: 83 open, 81 catch, 43 YAC / overall 83 (4th in the league behind AJ Brown, Jefferson, and Lockett

Knox ratings: 57 open,  48 catch, 34 YAC / overall 47 (73)

I. McKenzie: 62 open,  36 catch, 33 YAC / overall 43 (86)

Davis ratings: 45 open,  37 catch, 42 YAC / overall 37 (100)

(FTR, new WR Trent Sherfield scores 50/40/36//overall 43 (86).  Harty not enough playing time to score.)

Bills last season (Diggs, Knox, Davis): total 167 [Diggs Knox McKenzie would total 173, but Davis targeted much more]

 

Compare to Chiefs:

Travis Kelce ratings: 78 open, 65 catch, 50 YAC / overall 75 (10)

Juju Smith-Schuster: 49 open,  60 catch, 52 YAC / overall 56 (46)

Marquez Valdez-Scan: 26 open, 46 catch, 29 YAC/ overall 23 (110)

Chiefs last season (Kelce, SS, MVS): total 154

 

Bengals, total 217

Eagles, total 224

Dolphins, total 179

Giants, total 185

 

Anyway, I'm not sure this passes the "eye test" once you're past about the top 10 guys - do we really believe George Pickens is a better WR than Jamaar Chase, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins?  Or that Isaiah Hodgins is a better WR than Adams, Hopkins, or Amon-Ra St Brown?  Which is how this lines 'em up. 

 

Enjoy, and believe it or don't.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You guys seem to be ignorant of the fact - the fact - that the digger you go into fine tuned data, the less meaningful the data is.   When have you ever heard catch percentage cited as the measure of a good receiver?    It's a very important piece of data for coaches to start with, but it is only a starting point.   The number of times he caught the ball compared to the number of times he was targeted until you back out of Davis's totals - and every other receiver - all of the bad throws and all of the plays where he was double teamed and all of the plays where the corner made a good play on the ball.   After you've done that for all receivers, tell me where he stand in catch percentage, and then we'll have a stat that at least we can talk about. 

 

It's a need at OT.  Tommy Doyle is practically an unknown.  His 1 game last year was his total of snaps for the season.

Q is once again another 1 year JAG.

 

Dawkins, Brown and Doyle will all be in their last year of their contracts next season.

If Dawkins goes down and Brown doesn't improve Josh could be in big trouble.

 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

His actions say otherwise. He spent much of the end of last season trying to sign OBJ, and he said just a couple days ago they still aren't out on him. They've been heavily connected to DeAndre Hopkins. So Beane clearly is trying to find an upgrade to Davis, regardless of what he says.

 

This is similar to how he's been talking glowingly about Edmunds for a year now and made it sound like he was a definite extension priority. But his actions said otherwise. He always signs his cornerstone players early but let Edmunds make it to free agency.

 

Don't listen to Beane's words. Watch what he does. That will tell you his true opinion on the matter.

 

These are two different things.   Some people here are saying Davis is inadequate and the Bills should move on.   Beane was responding to thoughts like that.  What he was saying was, effectively, that #2 receiver is not a hole in the lineup that he needs to fill. 

 

Talking about OBJ and Hopkins is something different.  Beane has said often that he always will consider opportunities to make the team better, so of course he actively considers stars like that who might be available.   Personally, I don't think either makes sense, because my first impression is that I wouldn't want to add another difficult personality to the receiver room.  That concern notwithstanding, I'd certainly be talking to them.  

 

Talking about moving on from Davis now just doesn't make sense.   This team wants to contend for a Lombardi, and they need a linebacker, a D tackle, an O tackle much more than they need a 200- or 300-yard upgrade at the #2 receiver.  And that's the other reason why, although Beane will look at Hopkins and OBJ, he's not likely to pull the trigger.  He has more important positions to spend his money on.  

[Maine-iac]

My guess is that if your average depth of target is over 15 yards you probably aren't open on every play.  You also aren't making easy routine catches that far down the field either.  His role is to keep teams defending deep passes.  If we had a decent slot receiver or used our TE or RB like other teams we would see more of the benefits of having Davis and Diggs outside.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are two different things.   Some people here are saying Davis is inadequate and the Bills should move on.   Beane was responding to thoughts like that.  What he was saying was, effectively, that #2 receiver is not a hole in the lineup that he needs to fill. 

 

Talking about OBJ and Hopkins is something different.  Beane has said often that he always will consider opportunities to make the team better, so of course he actively considers stars like that who might be available.   Personally, I don't think either makes sense, because my first impression is that I wouldn't want to add another difficult personality to the receiver room.  That concern notwithstanding, I'd certainly be talking to them.  

 

Talking about moving on from Davis now just doesn't make sense.   This team wants to contend for a Lombardi, and they need a linebacker, a D tackle, an O tackle much more than they need a 200- or 300-yard upgrade at the #2 receiver.  And that's the other reason why, although Beane will look at Hopkins and OBJ, he's not likely to pull the trigger.  He has more important positions to spend his money on.  

 

Oh I don't want to move on from Davis this year. No need to do that, I would rather have as much talent as possible even though I expect him to walk in free agency next year.

 

But I also don't think he is truly good enough to be a full time #2 WR in this offense. His skill set makes him a perfect WR4 like he was in 2020. Beane gave him his shot after his divisional round performance in 2022, but now he is seemingly looking to upgrade him.

 

We need a #2 weapon similar to what the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Bengals, the 49ers had last year. Davis is a fine #2 for the middle tier of the NFL. We're competing with the top tier.

 

For what it's worth I don't think the Chiefs this year have a #2 worthy of competing with the top tier either, at least not yet, not since JuJu signed elsewhere. But they still have a great OL. The Bills don't even have that so we are desperate for one more piece of top talent if we hope to compete with the upper echelon.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers.

It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

 

I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require some kind of vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders.  I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind.  But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go.

You know, Beck, there are millions of fans hooked on pro football.   Some of them are geeks like the guys at Pro Football Reference, who make all this data available.   Some of them are geeks like Football Outsiders, whose work I like, and some of them are geeks like PFF, whose work I don't like.   But I will tell you, quickly, that I can't really tell you whose data is useful and whose isn't.  What i do know is that data can be used for two different purposes.   One is to evaluate players for the purpose of figuring out how to work with them to improve.  That's an internal, coaching purpose.   The other purpose is to help fans try to figure out what teams are good and what players are good, to fuel discussions and to recognize greatness.  The first kind of data, the internal data, isn't particularly useful for the second purpose.   Why?   Because there is a low correlation of that data to greatness.  

 

Catch percentage is one of those internal-use numbers, and it's a number that doesn't correlate with greatness.   How do I know that?   Because I know that Gabriel Davis and Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams are NOT worse receivers than 150 other guys currently in the league.   That's ridiculous.   Receptions, yards, and touchdowns correlate with effectiveness, and those are the data that reasonable fans look to to determine the relative value of players.  

 

That triangular thing is cool, created by some geek to come up with some way compare receivers.   Looks cool, but I'm sure I don't a picture like that to know that Diggs is a better receiver than Knox and Davis. 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Oh I don't want to move on from Davis this year. No need to do that, I would rather have as much talent as possible even though I expect him to walk in free agency next year.

 

But I also don't think he is truly good enough to be a full time #2 WR in this offense. His skill set makes him a perfect WR4 like he was in 2020. Beane gave him his shot after his divisional round performance in 2022, but now he is seemingly looking to upgrade him.

 

We need a #2 weapon similar to what the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Bengals, the 49ers had last year. Davis is a fine #2 for the middle tier of the NFL. We're competing with the top tier.

 

For what it's worth I don't think the Chiefs this year have a #2 worthy of competing with the top tier either, at least not yet, not since JuJu signed elsewhere. But they still have a great OL. The Bills don't even have that so we are desperate for one more piece of top talent if we hope to compete with the upper echelon.

Yeah, I don't have any major quarrel with this.   I'm not going to be surprised to see the Bills get what they can from Davis and then move on.  Oh, and by the way, I know you weren't saying Davis should go, but others are. 

 

Reading what you said made me think one other thing.   There are very few teams that actually keep their #2s around very long.  Colts did it for a long time, but it's much of a revolving door for teams.   That's because there's a limit to how many players teams can lock up for the long term, and #2 receiver is virtually never a priority, because of needs at more important positions.  So, who the next #2 is going to be is a continuing question for GMs.  What Beane meant when he said he's fine with Davis (whatever his exact words were) was that #2 receiver is not a problem now.