Bills need to hit on picks to have a chance

[LittleSammy]

My key takeaway after digesting all of this is I'd better take the under later this year on the Bills 2023 Vegas season won/loss line. Lot's to fix in one year.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

13 hours ago, whorlnut said:

Not sure they would have taken Justin Jefferson. I think they wanted Tee Higgins, but saw something at his pro day that didn’t sit well with them. That in itself is unsettling as a fan, considering they need another WR this off-season. If they didn’t see something in Higgins thay told them he was worth a first round pick then should we have much hope this draft?

I remember a concern that Higgins could be susceptible to hamstring and calf injuries (due to his physical stature).  I didn't buy it at the time but he has missed games with leg injuries.

[Dr. Who]

Just now, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I remember a concern that Higgins could be susceptible to hamstring and calf injuries (due to his physical stature).  I didn't buy it at the time but he has missed games with leg injuries.

I liked Tee Higgins, pushed for D K Metcalf, and wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year. There have been opportunities, but so far the regime is focused elsewhere for the most part. This year, the wr pool in the draft is less impressive, alas.

[RyanC883]

13 hours ago, SCBills said:

He did seem that way.  
 

And what’s so frustrating is that he has levers to pull. 
 

He doesn’t need to re-up anyone.  Even our podcasters simp for Edmunds lately.  Give it a rest… Edmunds is NOT the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs. 
 

He has trade-able assets..  

 

Oliver has value, maybe not a ton of value, but someone will give him some kind of pick to take on that cap hit for what he provides.  

 

Davis has value.  Maybe legit pick value. Is he going to be re-signed next year?  Do they even know.  Is it a play it by ear situation?.. Move him for a pick.  Allen doesn’t trust him beyond a sideline throw or deep shot. 
 

Tre White has value.  Now I think the pick he could bring back probably isn’t worth it given what White could return to, now, a year removed from recovery.. but the convo should happen.  
 

Beane has levers to pull.  He’s not stuck, yet he sounded stuck … if so, it’s in a prison of his own making. 
 

 

 

Totally agree.  Unless the player is an impact-player that cannot be replaced (we have very few), we make the trade/not resign.  KC traded Hill, got picks, then got a bunch of #2 WRs.  Bean is wed to overpriced "process" veterans.  So what to do: 

 

1.  No to Edmunds.  Even at a "team-friendly" deal.  Need the cap space.  Sorry.  

 

2.  Trade White.  While he is an impact player, we can get picks for him that should be used either to trade up and get an OT or WR, or to hoard and draft more IOL.  White is replaced by Elam, Benford, Jackson.  

 

3.  Don't resign Poyer.  Same thing.  We have other safeties.  Use the savings to sign a safety in FA that costs less.  Poyer replaced by cheaper FA, rookie, or Benford.  

 

4.  Keep Davis.  While he could return picks, he is on a rookie contract and will be a good #3 next year.  

 

Use the cap savings from the above to get OL and/or WR in FA, and then draft OL, WR, and LB and safety to replace the departures.  

 

Of note: the Steelers routinely let all-pro players walk at the end of their contracts.  They had a system where they would plug another guy in.  You can't keep everyone and the big money you spend needs to be on premium positions in your system on top 5 players at their position (Diggs, Allen, Milano, Miller).  

 

[ProcessTruster]

a full 3+ weeks after the fact and this board still sees the sky falling.   new record for longevity.  impressive.  

 

[Niagara Dude]

1 hour ago, Billz4ever said:

Consider?  You wouldn't have to ask me twice, LOL.  We need to get bigger there and maybe we can get someone along the lines of another Daquan for a decent price on the FA market.  I love Poyer, but it's undeniable he has slowed down. Probably time to move on there.  My only fear is that this makes McBeane consider going Safety in the early rounds, which I think is a mistake given the needs on offense.

 

Tre's contract makes him almost untradeable given the dead cap hit and what team is going to be willing considering how he looked coming off ACL surgery.  That would be a huge gamble.  I don't see them trading Davis, but they could if the offer is right.  Next season is the final year of his rookie contract. The FO is probably hoping he turns the corner in a contract year.

 

 

I agree with everything you said,  Oliver does not make enough negative plays behind the line of scrimmage that outweigh the times he gets pushed back because of his lack of size.  I would not pay him and would trade him for 3rd rounder,  he was another reach/mistake by Beanne as was Epenesa & Boggie. That is a lot of draft capital we blew on d-Llne and then wants Allen to run for his life playing behind some garbage 0-line. As for safety,  we have Hyde under contract for one more season,  that is enough experience at that position.  Time to add some speed/youth and lower salaries

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

This is a given.  I see Beane’s problems as two-fold.

 

1. Likely with the influence of McDermott, the team has placed an emphasis on drafting defensive players highly rather than offensive ones.

 

2. The defensive players drafted, have not been difference makers.  Best example is at DE.  The Bills spend 3 premium picks on the position and still needed to sign a player like Von Miller because they weren’t good enough.  Same thing could happen with Ed Oliver.  
 

This draft is going to be HUGE for the Bills.  Not only does Beane need to hit on his picks better, McDermott can’t afford to have rookies inactive or not playing on game day.  Need players who can compete on day 1 

We had street guys that contributed more then some of Beanne's picks , who every pushed for Bernard should be fired;

[SCBills]

37 minutes ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Totally agree.  Unless the player is an impact-player that cannot be replaced (we have very few), we make the trade/not resign.  KC traded Hill, got picks, then got a bunch of #2 WRs.  Bean is wed to overpriced "process" veterans.  So what to do: 

 

1.  No to Edmunds.  Even at a "team-friendly" deal.  Need the cap space.  Sorry.  

 

2.  Trade White.  While he is an impact player, we can get picks for him that should be used either to trade up and get an OT or WR, or to hoard and draft more IOL.  White is replaced by Elam, Benford, Jackson.  

 

3.  Don't resign Poyer.  Same thing.  We have other safeties.  Use the savings to sign a safety in FA that costs less.  Poyer replaced by cheaper FA, rookie, or Benford.  

 

4.  Keep Davis.  While he could return picks, he is on a rookie contract and will be a good #3 next year.  

 

Use the cap savings from the above to get OL and/or WR in FA, and then draft OL, WR, and LB and safety to replace the departures.  

 

Of note: the Steelers routinely let all-pro players walk at the end of their contracts.  They had a system where they would plug another guy in.  You can't keep everyone and the big money you spend needs to be on premium positions in your system on top 5 players at their position (Diggs, Allen, Milano, Miller).  

 

 

Completely Agree.  

 

1) Let Edmunds, Poyer and Singletary walk.  I wouldn't even offer team friendly contracts to them.  Edmunds is the toughest to let go, but he's not a pass rusher and we already have an elite LB.  

 

2) Trade Oliver & White for picks and free up cap space. 

 

3) Use the cap space to sign the best Tackle and best IOL available in Free Agency.  Also sign a WR2 potential player in Meyers, Chark, (Renfro, if available) etc. 

 

4) Then use the rest of available cap on a vet LB, vet CB, vet Safety and re-sign Phillips/Shaq/Dane

 

5) Assuming (conservatively) that White brings back a Day 2 pick and Oliver a Day 3 pick, we have plenty of ammo to move around and/or address WR, OL, DL, LB, CB, S, RB.

 

 

Edited February 14, 2023 by SCBills

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Uh, duhhhhh.  The Bills need to hit on draft picks to sustain their current success.  This is revolutionary thinking here, folks.  Wow.  🤦🏾‍♂️ 

[Rebel101]

Beane honestly hasn’t been horrible in the draft. But he’s been horrible at managing those pieces or recognizing the talent on his roster & has let pieces go. Wyatt Teller could have been a nasty anchor on the OLine n Hodgins is a big bodied reciever who opens up the entire field. Those are game changers we let slip by. 

[BBills_88]

I believe they will draft with a purpose, now that they see the AFC east is more competitive than they expected. 

[finn]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

The bills do not have roster holes everywhere
 

I swear to ***** God some of the people forgot that they went 13 and three or just choose to not remember

Is going 13-3 and having roster holes the following year somehow incompatible? 

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, finn said:

Is going 13-3 and having roster holes the following year somehow incompatible? 

Every team has roster holes. Do you wait to see how they’re going to fill them?

[Billl]

8 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Completely Agree.  

 

1) Let Edmunds, Poyer and Singletary walk.  I wouldn't even offer team friendly contracts to them.  Edmunds is the toughest to let go, but he's not a pass rusher and we already have an elite LB.  

 

2) Trade Oliver & White for picks and free up cap space. 

 

3) Use the cap space to sign the best Tackle and best IOL available in Free Agency.  Also sign a WR2 potential player in Meyers, Chark, (Renfro, if available) etc. 

 

4) Then use the rest of available cap on a vet LB, vet CB, vet Safety and re-sign Phillips/Shaq/Dane

 

5) Assuming (conservatively) that White brings back a Day 2 pick and Oliver a Day 3 pick, we have plenty of ammo to move around and/or address WR, OL, DL, LB, CB, S, RB.

 

 

What team is giving up picks for White or Oliver?  Tre is due nearly $50,000,000 over the next 3 seasons, and he looked like a shell of his former self this year.  Oliver is JAG and is due over $10m next year.  Even if he has a great season, he’ll be a free agent.  I suppose it’s possible someone would offer a conditional late round pick for EO, but trading White would be a pure salary dump.  It would likely require Buffalo to give up picks for another team to take the salary hit.  

 

If he were a free agent, he wouldn’t get anywhere near 3/$50.  Why would any GM give up picks for the right to take on that contract?

[Aussie Joe]

9 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

a full 3+ weeks after the fact and this board still sees the sky falling.   new record for longevity.  impressive.  

 

 

I don’t expect much to change around here until at least free agency but I think a few might need to see the draft as well..

[finn]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

Every team has roster holes. Do you wait to see how they’re going to fill them?

Yes, I wait. You wait, too?

[SCBills]

45 minutes ago, Billl said:

What team is giving up picks for White or Oliver?  Tre is due nearly $50,000,000 over the next 3 seasons, and he looked like a shell of his former self this year.  Oliver is JAG and is due over $10m next year.  Even if he has a great season, he’ll be a free agent.  I suppose it’s possible someone would offer a conditional late round pick for EO, but trading White would be a pure salary dump.  It would likely require Buffalo to give up picks for another team to take the salary hit.  

 

If he were a free agent, he wouldn’t get anywhere near 3/$50.  Why would any GM give up picks for the right to take on that contract?

Oliver would 100% bring back a late round pick.   There are teams that will see him as a pass rush boost from the interior, scheme fit, and willing to get him in the locker room to see if he’s a long term fit.  
 

White, we’ll see… it would be a gamble for anyone trading for him, but recent data shows that this coming year is when Tre White will bounce back to pro-bowl caliber Tre White.  The year after the recovery/comeback year.  Which is also why I doubt the Bills would sell low to move him.   
 

Regardless, Edmunds and Oliver should have no business being on this team next year … and Beane can make it so they aren’t here.   That’s 22-24M the Bills can re-allocate to the Offense. 

[DCofNC]

17 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

I guess getting a WR like Davis who was 2nd in yards per catch in the 4th Round was horrible. Or Tyler Bass has been a horrible kicker. Dane Jackson hasn't contributed a thing. Greg Rousseau had the same amount of sacks this year as Khalil Mack and Trey Hendrickson who many clamor we should have traded for. 

 

It's easy to claim we've had horrible drafts but truth is when you really dig and look at stats we haven't. 

What ya did there is called “grasping at straws” for future reference.

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I liked Tee Higgins, pushed for D K Metcalf, and wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams last year. There have been opportunities, but so far the regime is focused elsewhere for the most part. This year, the wr pool in the draft is less impressive, alas.

And Beane will be focused on drafting one, no doubt.

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

Totally agree.  Unless the player is an impact-player that cannot be replaced (we have very few), we make the trade/not resign.  KC traded Hill, got picks, then got a bunch of #2 WRs.  Bean is wed to overpriced "process" veterans.  So what to do: 

 

1.  No to Edmunds.  Even at a "team-friendly" deal.  Need the cap space.  Sorry.  

 

2.  Trade White.  While he is an impact player, we can get picks for him that should be used either to trade up and get an OT or WR, or to hoard and draft more IOL.  White is replaced by Elam, Benford, Jackson.  

 

3.  Don't resign Poyer.  Same thing.  We have other safeties.  Use the savings to sign a safety in FA that costs less.  Poyer replaced by cheaper FA, rookie, or Benford.  

 

4.  Keep Davis.  While he could return picks, he is on a rookie contract and will be a good #3 next year.  

 

Use the cap savings from the above to get OL and/or WR in FA, and then draft OL, WR, and LB and safety to replace the departures.  

 

Of note: the Steelers routinely let all-pro players walk at the end of their contracts.  They had a system where they would plug another guy in.  You can't keep everyone and the big money you spend needs to be on premium positions in your system on top 5 players at their position (Diggs, Allen, Milano, Miller).  

 

Totally agree with 1, 3, 4. As much as we all appreciate what Tremaine & Jordan have meant to this team, it's time to move on. Use that cap on critical OL/ WR resources.  I'm not even close to throwing in the towel on Tre.  He'll heal completely and he and Micah will give us the leadership we still need.

      I'd put Benford @ SS and sign Vander Esch to a cheap deal ( 2y/6M total ).

Totally agree Allen, Diggs, Miller and Milano need to be at the top of cap allocations. Still not sure what to do with Ed (possible trade?). And I'll give Gabe 1 more year but he better realize he's getting wr3 target volume. 

[The Jokeman]

29 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

What ya did there is called “grasping at straws” for future reference.

And Beane will be focused on drafting one, no doubt.

No. It's realizing that never every team hits home runs on every pick and to get contributions from a few players it's still a success. Apparently you missed the past drafts like 2016 where we got next to nothing except Shaq Lawson.

Edited February 15, 2023 by The Jokeman

[Success]

Edmunds will get re-signed, but not Poyer (imo).  

 

Edmunds is huge for our defense. If he isn't a Bill this fall, LB becomes a top priority in the draft - and we can't afford to waste a high draft pick on that position this year.  It has to be WR & OL.