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Elephant in the Room


IronyAbounds

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The giraffe in the room is that Beane needs to look at more help in the draft war room. Maybe a new director of college scouting. This team is just not getting consistent production out of the first 2 rounds. Finding some late round gems is great. But you have to hit, more often then not, in rounds 1 and 2.

 

Boogie, Epenesa, and Ford are huge whiffs. Oliver is not living up to his draft status.

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4 hours ago, Back2Buff said:

The elephant in the room is that Allen has been bottom tier the second half of the season and is getting paid elite money.

 

Will the guy put in the necessary work in offseason to understand defensive schemes and to throw with anticipation?  Or will he spend all offseason traveling and playing golf and just play back yard ball every year?

 

As soon as defenses pick up on what Allen does in a season, he doesn't adapt.  I question if he is smart enough to think as quick as the top guys do.

He definetly regressed some this year.  In his defense, he had a new OC learning on the job, a poor OL, had an injuried elbow, and lacked weapons. So it's pretty to see why he wasn't at his best. Allen is the least of the Bills problems.

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1 hour ago, Chas56 said:

I’ve been a fan for quite a while. During the early 90’s Super Bowl runs there was a certain percentage of fans that wanted Frank to start over Kelly. It’s nuts, but haters gotta hate.

I remember that too. Bills fans are hilarious.

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1 minute ago, BB2004 said:

 

Any chance we put the franchise tag on one of these players?

Edmunds definitely not as it would be over 20 mil as guys like TJ watt Jack up the price as they are listed as “linebackers”.

 

Poyer, maybe but I doubt it.

 

I think if a deal gets done with Poyer, they will have to make it a “phoney” 2 year deal where they push money away from the cap this year.

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16 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

The giraffe in the room is that Beane needs to look at more help in the draft war room. Maybe a new director of college scouting. This team is just not getting consistent production out of the first 2 rounds. Finding some late round gems is great. But you have to hit, more often then not, in rounds 1 and 2.

 

Boogie, Epenesa, and Ford are huge whiffs. Oliver is not living up to his draft status.

Who is?  Honestly looking back, outside of Allen, they have been terrible drafting.  More draft picks and money spent on that Dline than any other team since McDermott got here, and they still had to overpay for a aging Von Miller to cover uo for their draft failures.  Unfortunately he got hurt, and the light was on for all of us to witness. Those failures also move on to the offense, because you used all the draft capital on Defense 

Edited by Gunsgoodtime
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4 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Who is?  Honestly looking back, outside of Allen, they have been terrible drafting.  More draft picks and money spent on that Dline than any other team since McDermott got here, and they still had to overpay for a aging Von Miller to cover uo for their draft failures.  Unfortunately he got hurt, and the light was on for all of us to witness.

Absolutely fair point. Another problem I have is that I wonder how much of this is on coaching. Jerry Hughes leaves to Houston and has his best season in 8 years. He had 9 sacks this year. Right now we have 4 first rounders and 3 second rounders on our d-line. Are they really just bad players, or is Eric Washington a terrible coach (or is it Frazier's scheme)?

 

Same with Edmunds. I wonder if he would've been a star on the 49er or Ravens. Physically he's a unicorn. Is Frazier's defense (innovative for the 90s) holding back his production? This doubt just compounds our crappy situation. How do you fix a problem if you're unsure about what the problem really is?

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3 hours ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 You try and secure a deal, in principle, before the tag deadline comes and goes? If not don't tag him. Just would suck to let him leave with nothing to show for it after spending a 1st rounder & the 1st pick of the 3rd to trade for him.

 

 

 

In that scenario, you have very little leverage because he will command a huge salary and draft picks to get.  Teams know Buffalo can't pay him $20+ million a year, so they really can't risk him being on the tag.  He's not top tier elite where people are willing to drop money and picks.

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1 minute ago, somnus00 said:

Absolutely fair point. Another problem I have is that I wonder how much of this is on coaching. Jerry Hughes leaves to Houston and has his best season in 8 years. He had 9 sacks this year. Right now we have 4 first rounders and 3 second rounders on our d-line. Are they really just bad players, or is Eric Washington a terrible coach (or is it Frazier's scheme)?

 

Same with Edmunds. I wonder if he would've been a star on the 49er or Ravens. Physically he's a unicorn. Is Frazier's defense (innovative for the 90s) holding back his production? This doubt just compounds our crappy situation. How do you fix a problem if you're unsure about what the problem really is?

4 1st rounders and 3 2nds on the dline 🤣   I wish you had not replied, i knew it was bad, but wow! Just goes to show how bad at drafting they really have been.  I think Tremaine will be good wherever he goes.  I have a different opinion of him than most on here

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4 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I'd be ALL IN FAVOR of somehow getting rid of Von Miller and his salary, if that's at all possible.

 

He was the fitting of the "last piece" to win a championship.  And that didn't happen.


We are now in retool mode, and need to build up again.

 

Von is not the sort of player this team needs, NOW.

 

 

 

 

The Bills are completely screwed with Von Miller’s injury. Even healthy he would be painful to trade ($14.8M dead cap) and impossible to cut ($40.2M dead cap). Cap consequences aside we can’t cut an injured player without an agreed upon settlement - and that’s not happening.

 

No team would even consider trading for a player with Von Miller’s injury and massive contract until that player shows he’s back to form. He will likely get back on the field at some point next season (see White, Tre), but he won’t be back to form until some time after that - if ever. And at his age the “if ever” is a very real possibility. He’ll be 34 this off-season. The Bills are going to take this one hard, right in the shorts. There’s your elephant in the room.

 

Edited to add: Contract details here, see for yourself.

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Just now, BarleyNY said:

The Bills are screwed with Von Miller’s injury. Even healthy he would be painful to trade ($14.8M dead cap) and impossible to cut ($40.2M dead cap). Cap consequences aside we can’t cut an injured without an agreed upon settlement - and that’s not happening.

 

No team would even consider trading for a player with Von Miller’s injury and massive contract until that player shows he’s back to form. He will likely get back on the field at some point next season (see White, Tre), but he won’t be back to form until some time after that - if ever. And at his age the “if ever” is a very real possibility. The Bills are going to take this one hard, right in the shorts.

Hated the contract when we did it, Hate it even worse now!  When you have multiple 1st, 2nd rounders on your line and you still have to go out and overpay an aging Von Miller to get a pass rush, you suck at drafting 

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Just now, Gunsgoodtime said:

Hated the contract when we did it, Hate it even worse now!  When you have multiple 1st, 2nd rounders on your line and you still have to go out and overpay an aging Von Miller to get a pass rush, you suck at drafting 

I actually loved the signing. He was exactly the player the Bills defense needed. The team went all in and it didn’t work out. It happens. But I’m with you on hating that we had to go out and find an aging FA to give that contract to because we couldn’t draft well enough. So many resources poured into the DL with so little to show for it. 

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36 minutes ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Who is?  Honestly looking back, outside of Allen, they have been terrible drafting.  More draft picks and money spent on that Dline than any other team since McDermott got here, and they still had to overpay for a aging Von Miller to cover uo for their draft failures.  Unfortunately he got hurt, and the light was on for all of us to witness. Those failures also move on to the offense, because you used all the draft capital on Defense 

 

FA spending too Daquan Jones (lived up to contract IMO), Von Miller, Tim Settle

 

Meanwhile the offense gets Saffold, Quessenberry and Hart....

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On 1/23/2023 at 11:05 AM, Back2Buff said:

The elephant in the room is that Allen has been bottom tier the second half of the season and is getting paid elite money.

 

Will the guy put in the necessary work in offseason to understand defensive schemes and to throw with anticipation?  Or will he spend all offseason traveling and playing golf and just play back yard ball every year?

 

As soon as defenses pick up on what Allen does in a season, he doesn't adapt.  I question if he is smart enough to think as quick as the top guys do.

Umm correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t Allen having an MVP like season up until he hurt his elbow(again)?  Sounds more like you need him to stay injury free more than anything. 

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It’ll be interesting to see what the cap situation is when finalized.

 

Pro Football Focus projects the Bills to be $8M over the cap.  Sportac says $16M.   I’m sure they’ll try to restructure Allen’s deal by converting salary to signing bonus.  Might as well take advantage before the NFL closes that loophole.

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On 1/23/2023 at 1:55 PM, iccrewman112 said:


Im very much in agreement with all points on this. Not sure how a tag and trade works. All special teamers on non-minimum contracts need to be released as well (other than long snapper)

 

O absolutely yes for sure. I think I said this to my brother during the Cincinnati game, but for *****'s sake do we really truly have a major need for Tyler Matakevich, Taiwan Jones and Jake Kumerow? I mean, give me a break. I know the staff feels that they are special teams marvels, but the funny thing is, I saw a handful of noticeable mistakes by Jones this year which is unacceptable for a guy who is only a special teamer and not a positional player (don't give me the RB garbage). Also, the only time I noticed Matakevich is when he's running off the field. I'm sure they're lovely guys, but they gotta go. If our coaching staff is as great as everybody says it is, then make it work with players who actually have a chance to make plays elsewhere as well, if needed. Just my opinion.

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In reviewing existing deals, I’m not really seeing many release opportunities, outside of a guy or two like McKenzie.  Even that only frees up a couple million.  Their best chances of freeing up more meaningful cap space is going to be restructures and/or trades.  Based on McD and Beane’s comments, I’m thinking Edmunds is the first FA they try to retain.  Probably don’t have enough money left to retain Poyer and Singletary, versus looking to the rest of the roster to step up in their place.  Beyond any marginal depth they sign in FA, the draft is their path to land any meaningful talent at a reasonable price.

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On 1/23/2023 at 11:01 AM, IronyAbounds said:

Most folks here are pointing to areas where the Bills need improvement: the OL (absolutely), the WR crew (quite possibly), the secondary (quite possibly), the DL (seems likely after yesterday, but it may depend on whether Miller returns at a high level), RB (I'm not as concerned here). One little problem - exactly where do the Bills find the resources to bring in upgrades to those positions. Free Agency? Given the money to keep Allen and bring in Miller, there simply isn't the money to bring in quality FAs. Draft picks? The Bills have six. Fortunately they didn't get rid of any picks in the first 5 rounds (and actually have two in the 5th round). But as we have seen, Beane hasn't exactly been the most astute GM when it comes to drafting, and in any event, rookies always have a learning curve.

 

Injuries indisputably took a huge toll this year, but it isn't like all those injured guys will simply be plugged back into their positions for next year. The defense was hit the hardest, but who knows how well Miller or Hyde will bounce back, plus they'll be a year older (Miller will be 34 and Hyde 33, not exactly spring chickens in the NFL). White certainly didn't seem like his old self this year. Hamlin (bless his soul) almost certainly won't be back, Poyer is likely gone and the rest of the secondary is meh at best. 

 

The offense wasn't hurt all that much by injuries, certainly not any more than is typical to an NFL team, so it's not as though they will be getting a difference maker back on offense. Most people seem to think the WR position is in need of upgrade, but if you spend resources in that area, how do you address the other positions that seem far more in need (OL and secondary). Same thought with the running backs. The OL is in need of a major overhaul, but again, the Bills really won't be able to spend much on any OL free agent. Will there be a quality lineman early in the draft? I hope so, but then what about the DL, the secondary, the wide receivers and running backs? Is it reasonable to expect Beane to suddenly become a master draftsman and be able to plug all the gaps with 6 draft picks? Past history suggests otherwise.

 

The Bills have had a remarkable run the past four years becoming one of the top teams in the league. For that I'm grateful. It's just difficult to see how they get over the hump given the current situation with the existing talent and somewhat crimped resources. I'll admit, when it comes to the Bills, my pessimism springs eternal. Hopefully I'm overstating the problems and minimizing the avenues that exist to improve the team.

I’m hoping guys like Greg Rousseau and Shakir make the jump next season  + a plug and play guard and speedster WR in the 1st & 2nd rounds. I’m confident Beane will find a couple late round gems, but it is imperative that they hit on those first 2 picks. This is the only way IMO. Free agency is not going to save this team. 

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