A day later, I'm still in the camp of cleaning house.

[JimmyNoodles]

17 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Another poster mentioned this today.  This is a blatant example of "soft".

 

Score 14-7, Bengals, the ball at the Bills 14 with 2:48 left in the 2nd quarter, 3rd and 4.  4 receiver set with Chase wide to the left and 3 receivers on the right.  Bills blitz with 7 rushing against 6 blockers.  CB's White on the left, Jackson on the right both 7 yard off the line.  2 other defenders at the 5 yard line.   Burrows gets the snap and stares down Chase then makes quick throw he catches at the 12, he cuts inside as White misses the tackle and Edmunds tracks him down after the blitz attempt failed and brings him down at the 7.  First and goal.

 

You want to argue Frazier didn't want to give up the big play which in this case would be a 14 yard TD.  So instead you concede the first down unless 1) the blitz gets to Burrows, which it didn't, or the receiver drops the ball or fumbles or something else which didn't happen.  Frazier's/McDermott's scheme is based on the idea that the offense is not going to execute 10 or 12 plays in a row and will make a mistake but good and great teams in the playoffs don't make a lot of mistakes.  You need to make a play against them.  Not wait for them to mess up.  

And, if IIRC the very next play they lined up in tight man. It’s like NOW you think it’s important to stop them, but the play before you basically concede the first down. I hate this D, always have. The only way it works is if you have an elite dline and we are a far cry from that. The example you cited is one of many head scratchers. As much as I like McD, I’m out. This was the last hurrah. Clean house. 

[SoCal Deek]

11 minutes ago, JimmyNoodles said:

And, if IIRC the very next play they lined up in tight man. It’s like NOW you think it’s important to stop them, but the play before you basically concede the first down. I hate this D, always have. The only way it works is if you have an elite dline and we are a far cry from that. The example you cited is one of many head scratchers. As much as I like McD, I’m out. This was the last hurrah. Clean house. 

I’d add a slight different take. This defense is based on analytics. The theory is that the other team’s QB is going to screw up before they can get it in the end zone. It works during the regular season when the level of QB play is very hit and miss, but it’s not going to work against top tier playoff teams. 

[quincy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It isn't even in my top 5. It really isn't. The Bills played their worst game of the season on Sunday, they deserved to lose to a team who arguably are more talented in any event. It was disappointing, but this season stopped feeling like a potential Championship run weeks ago to me. Too beaten up with injuries, especially on defense. Hyde and Von done for the year, Ed Oliver playing with more strapping than an Egyptian mummy, Jordan Poyer playing with a torn knee, Tre White looking like a shadow of his former pre-ACL self. And just not enough offensive talent to overcome, which some of us worried about going into the year. And that is without factoring in the adversity of the storms, Damar Hamlin and everything else. 

 

I didn't find Sunday painful. Disappointing, but not painful. Last season was painful because that still felt like a Championship chance at the point it ended. This didn't to me. Where we go next is interesting. The Bills have focussed the last two off-seasons on running things back, on keeping the band together, on the "one more heave" approach. That option isn't really available to them this offseason. There is going to be more roster turnover than there has been since probably 2019. The regime needs a good offseason and it needs to show progress in some of its weaknesses next year. The window is open a little narrower the next two years (until the cap explosion comes and Josh suddenly looks like an absolute bargain). The pressure is on this regime, no question. But the Bills are not gonna be reactionary following this loss and nor should they be.

 

There is no doubt that the Bills deserved the loss on Sunday.

 

The Bengals were also down their number 1 CB, down 3 OL and their DE's were playing banged up. Their OL stood up, why do we have excuses on the injury front and they don't? We were down more players for sure but our opponent still had substantial injury issues and played a great game. They had 1 week to patch up their OL on the fly, Hyde/Miller as a combination have been unavailable since November. 

 

Do you really believe that McDermott can lead us to a Super Bowl? If so, what is it based on? I wish it to happen - the only way I can foresee it is if Josh plays like the previous postseason with a minimal margin for error.

 

Do you believe that the current defensive scheme as it is run now can defeat the Bengals or the Chiefs in the postseason?

 

I will always support the team. The fact that we were never really in with a shot to win the game at any point on Sunday is what gets me down for now. 

 

 

 

 

[Rocbillsfan1]

Get the brooms out, coaching staff all need to go. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

Get the brooms out, coaching staff all need to go. 

This is McDs first real test as a Head Coach. If he doesn’t show Frazier the door, then he too needs to go.

[Real McClappy]

21 hours ago, NEBranch said:

Is this our "Bickering Bills/Ronnie Harmon" season before things got pretty good?

Not even close.

 

Go lookup the Bills roster in 1988-1990 and you will see why.

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Every Super Bowl-winning coach/QB combo in NFL history has done so within their first 5 years together.

 

McDermott and Allen will be entering year 6.

[Lost]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't find Sunday painful. Disappointing, but not painful. Last season was painful because that still felt like a Championship chance at the point it ended. This didn't to me. Where we go next is interesting. The Bills have focussed the last two off-seasons on running things back, on keeping the band together, on the "one more heave" approach. That option isn't really available to them this offseason. There is going to be more roster turnover than there has been since probably 2019. The regime needs a good offseason and it needs to show progress in some of its weaknesses next year. The window is open a little narrower the next two years (until the cap explosion comes and Josh suddenly looks like an absolute bargain). The pressure is on this regime, no question. But the Bills are not gonna be reactionary following this loss and nor should they be.

 

The loss itself was not painful for me but the realization that the next year or two are going to be worse.  Last year was our year, this year was our year.  We're not going to have too many years left where Josh Allen can take control of a game with his legs alone.   Diggs is going to be 30 next year.  Those two basically propped this team up on their own.  We need major changes in offensive/defensive scheme, talent evaluation etc.   This management and coaching staff is too tightly knit for me to expect any real change at this point.  I don't see Pegula firing Beane, I dont see Beane firing McD, I don't See McD firing Dorsey or Frazier.  

 

Long story short.  I don't see change coming fast enough to not squander the prime years of the talent we do have in the process.  Hope they prove me wrong.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Lost

[Radar]

On 1/23/2023 at 7:51 AM, FrenchConnection said:

Besides Diggs, Josh and Milano I can’t think of any. I want guys that will punch you in the face for looking at them. The Bengals have a bunch of those guys (Mixon, Apple, Hilton, Hendrickson) and we have none. You don’t have to like the guys on the team. I have never seen a Mixon jersey here, but they sure as heck are happy to have him today.

Exactly. Can we trade for Mixon?

You nailed it. Been saying all along aside from those three we're a team of basically very replaceable players. Front office needs to do much better. The Allen pick aside they've done a very questionable job frankly.

[SoCal Deek]

It used to be said that Shula could simply switch sidelines and beat you with your own players. I’m beginning to think the same, but opposite, of McD. If you swapped the Chiefs and Bengals staff with ours, they’d beat their own teams with OUR roster. That should tell you everything you need to know.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, quincy said:

 

There is no doubt that the Bills deserved the loss on Sunday.

 

The Bengals were also down their number 1 CB, down 3 OL and their DE's were playing banged up. Their OL stood up, why do we have excuses on the injury front and they don't? We were down more players for sure but our opponent still had substantial injury issues and played a great game. They had 1 week to patch up their OL on the fly, Hyde/Miller as a combination have been unavailable since November. 

 

Do you really believe that McDermott can lead us to a Super Bowl? If so, what is it based on? I wish it to happen - the only way I can foresee it is if Josh plays like the previous postseason with a minimal margin for error.

 

Do you believe that the current defensive scheme as it is run now can defeat the Bengals or the Chiefs in the postseason?

 

I will always support the team. The fact that we were never really in with a shot to win the game at any point on Sunday is what gets me down for now. 

 

The Bengals did have their own injuries, very true. They ran better gameplans to adjust for their injuries - on offense they ran a ton of quick game and really took their pass pro weakness out of the game. I think their DEs are better pass rushers than ours. I was a Joseph Ossai guy in that draft, he blew up at least 2 plays I counted on Sunday. There was no way on tape I'd have taken Boogie before Ossai, but I don't run the personnel department. That is life. 

 

Do I believe McDermott can lead us to a Superbowl? I don't know, honestly. Is there some validity to the Schottenheimer comparison? Sure. But at the same time both Kansas City and San Diego ended up believing they fired him too soon, so there is that as well. 

 

As for the defensive scheme - yes I do. I think their specific gameplan on Sunday wasn't the best, and contrary to most I believe part of that was we blitzed too much. But I absolutely believe you can win a Superbowl with the Bills defensive scheme. 

 

What I don't think you can do - and I am consistent on this and have been for multiple seasons - is win a Superbowl without 4 or 5 elite players on your roster. Guys who are going to make those big plays in the big moments even when the entirety of the opposition is trying to take them away. And honestly that is where I think the biggest failing is. This regime has drafted two elite players: Tre White (and he sadly does not look the same guy post ACL) and Josh Allen. They have drafted lots of "good" players and some "average" players but they haven't drafted guys who have reached that elite level. 

 

The whole regime is on the clock now for me. But I wouldn't fire people right now. It's too soon. It is an overreaction to a dreadful performance on Sunday. They need to make some changes. They will have to have the biggest roster overhaul since 2019 this spring. But I'd still give them the time and space to do that. 

20 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

The loss itself was not painful for me but the realization that the next year or two are going to be worse.  Last year was our year, this year was our year.  We're not going to have too many years left where Josh Allen can take control of a game with his legs alone.   Diggs is going to be 30 next year.  Those two basically propped this team up on their own.  We need major changes in offensive/defensive scheme, talent evaluation etc.   This management and coaching staff is too tightly knit for me to expect any real change at this point.  I don't see Pegula firing Beane, I dont see Beane firing McD, I don't See McD firing Dorsey or Frazier.  

 

Long story short.  I don't see change coming fast enough to not squander the prime years of the talent we do have in the process.  Hope they prove me wrong.

 

Beane can't fire McDermott. McDermott doesn't report to Beane (officially they both report to Pegula but the reality is, if anything, Beane reports to McDermott). Regardless I wouldn't be going in for major firings anyway. I think the roster needs more work than the staff. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bengals did have their own injuries, very true. They ran better gameplans to adjust for their injuries - on offense they ran a ton of quick game and really took their pass pro weakness out of the game. I think their DEs are better pass rushers than ours. I was a Joseph Ossai guy in that draft, he blew up at least 2 plays I counted on Sunday. There was no way on tape I'd have taken Boogie before Ossai, but I don't run the personnel department. That is life. 

 

Do I believe McDermott can lead us to a Superbowl? I don't know, honestly. Is there some validity to the Schottenheimer comparison? Sure. But at the same time both Kansas City and San Diego ended up believing they fired him too soon, so there is that as well. 

 

As for the defensive scheme - yes I do. I think their specific gameplan on Sunday wasn't the best, and contrary to most I believe part of that was we blitzed too much. But I absolutely believe you can win a Superbowl with the Bills defensive scheme. 

 

What I don't think you can do - and I am consistent on this and have been for multiple seasons - is win a Superbowl without 4 or 5 elite players on your roster. Guys who are going to make those big plays in the big moments even when the entirety of the opposition is trying to take them away. And honestly that is where I think the biggest failing is. This regime has drafted two elite players: Tre White (and he sadly does not look the same guy post ACL) and Josh Allen. They have drafted lots of "good" players and some "average" players but they haven't drafted guys who have reached that elite level. 

 

The whole regime is on the clock now for me. But I wouldn't fire people right now. It's too soon. It is an overreaction to a dreadful performance on Sunday. They need to make some changes. They will have to have the biggest roster overhaul since 2019 this spring. But I'd still give them the time and space to do that. 

Good take. I'll add that White looked pretty bad on Sunday -- PI is becoming an innate reflex for him. He ran a 4.47 coming out of college, but I guarantee that he's at best a low 4.6 now. You can't play CB in the NFL at that speed and be any good. Safety, sure, but not CB. Whether or not he gets his speed back is one of the very biggest issues the Bills will be facing this offseason because they can't cut him given a dead cap hit of nearly $23 million. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Good take. I'll add that White looked pretty bad on Sunday -- PI is becoming an innate reflex for him. He ran a 4.47 coming out of college, but I guarantee that he's at best a low 4.6 now. You can't play CB in the NFL at that speed and be any good. Safety, sure, but not CB. Whether or not he gets his speed back is one of the very biggest issues the Bills will be facing this offseason because they can't cut him given a dead cap hit of nearly $23 million. 

 

Agree. I am seriously worried Tre is done and we are never going to see the all pro version of Tre White again. He has lost all of his confidence out there. I would not be stunned if he decided to call it a career, honestly. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I am seriously worried Tre is done and we are never going to see the all pro version of Tre White again. He has lost all of his confidence out there. I would not be stunned if he decided to call it a career, honestly. 

He is NOT gonna quit because he'd be giving up tens of millions of dollars. He's not that stupid.

Edited January 24, 2023 by dave mcbride

[RiotAct]

41 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Every Super Bowl-winning coach/QB combo in NFL history has done so within their first 5 years together.

 

McDermott and Allen will be entering year 6.

first time for everything

 

 

 

EDITED TO ADD:  What about Lombardi / Starr?   Although, that was pre-merger… 😜

Edited January 24, 2023 by RiotAct

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

He is NOT gonna quit because he'd be giving up tens of millions of dollars. He's not that stupid.

 

Maybe. I have just always thought with Tre that he is a guy who thinks about life after football. He nearly held out over covid, he was one of the most visibly affected by Damar. If he can't be that guy out there anymore and his heart isn't in it I don't think it would come down to the money for him. Obviously what I hope is we get a back to full health and true form Tre White in 2023. I just don't know if I see it. 

[Wayne Cubed]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I am seriously worried Tre is done and we are never going to see the all pro version of Tre White again. He has lost all of his confidence out there. I would not be stunned if he decided to call it a career, honestly. 

 

The confidence is certainly the reason it took longer for him to come back and the Bills coaching staff knew that.

[Lost]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the roster needs more work than the staff. 

 

Well it's true, but we have to ask ourselves how we ended up with so many glaring holes at this point?  Take away Diggs and Allen, this team is probably a sub .500 team.   Our talent evaluation has been a mess the last few years not to mention constantly wasting cap space on rotational/situational players.   Our number 1 draft pick cornerback saw less than 50% defensive snaps this year.  Our 2nd round draft pick running back less than 25% offensive snaps.  Did we even need an RB2 or RB3(Hines)?  We clearly didn't even put much emphasis on running the ball this season.  

 

Quoting @MAJBobby from another thread here because he summed it up well.

"Was clear they wanted a Pass Catching RB.  Continued that obsession at the trade deadline.  So who was driving that desire? Dorsey? Beane? McD? Allen?  I doubt it as McD or Allen so that is on Beane and Dorsey.  So here were those plays?  There was no screens, the angle routes and Cook out of the backfield routes we hear so much about in the offseason where not there.  Some of that could have been on Allen not taking the easier throw, but again lets get to offensive design, if that was wanted SO MUCH.  Why were there not plays designed for the RB to be the first read??"

 

Another instance.  Wanting that TE2 again they prioritized a second pass catching TE in the offseason, Morris beats out Howard this offseason with the 2 TE sets, earns the spot and then those plays nonexistent.  So the two priorities (that I can only think Dorsey wanted) were addressed, then the season comes and we get a poor mans Brian Daboll offense"

 

The Bills have targeted a lot of situational players and then never really utilized them(Crowder, Cook, Hines, Man coverage DB in Elam when they want to play zone.  These our problems created from the top down in my opinion and unless change starts happening at the top, it's just going to be more of the same.  

Edited January 24, 2023 by Lost

[dave mcbride]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Maybe. I have just always thought with Tre that he is a guy who thinks about life after football. He nearly held out over covid, he was one of the most visibly affected by Damar. If he can't be that guy out there anymore and his heart isn't in it I don't think it would come down to the money for him. Obviously what I hope is we get a back to full health and true form Tre White in 2023. I just don't know if I see it. 

That is simply too much money to give up. No other profession he embarks upon will give him more than a tiny percentage of that. If he retires, he'll have to return or forego cash. He'll be around for at least another year. From Spotrac:

 

Contract Notes:

$36.7M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2020 salary + 2021 salary + 2021 option bonus)

2022 salary injury guaranteed now

$4.975M of 2022 salary fully guarantees 3/20/2021

Additional $4.975M of 2022 salary & $6.35M of 2023 salary fully guarantees 3/22/2022

Remaining $2.25M of 2023 salary fully guarantees on 3/18/2023 Injury guaranteed now)

2021 Option Bonus: $7.5M (must be exercised 3/17/21 - 3/21/21)

2022 Roster Bonus: $500,000 (3/20/2022)

2023 Roster Bonus: $1 million (3/19/2023)

2024 Roster Bonus: $1.5 million (5th league day of 2024)

2025 Roster Bonus: $1.5 million (5th league day of 2025)

2022-2025 Per Game Active Bonus: $14,705 ($250,000, 6 LTBE in 2023)

Workout Bonus: $300,000

2022-2025 Pro Bowl: $250,000

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Well it's true, but we have to ask ourselves how we ended up with so many glaring holes at this point?  Take away Diggs and Allen, this team is probably a sub .500 team.   Our talent evaluation has been a mess the last few years not to mention constantly wasting cap space on rotational/situational players.   Our number 1 draft pick cornerback saw less than 50% defensive snaps this year.  Our 2nd round draft pick running back less than 25% offensive snaps.  Did we even need an RB2 or RB3(Hines)?  We clearly didn't even put much emphasis on running the ball this season.  

 

Quoting @MAJBobby from another thread here because he summed it up well.

"Was clear they wanted a Pass Catching RB.  Continued that obsession at the trade deadline.  So who was driving that desire? Dorsey? Beane? McD? Allen?  I doubt it as McD or Allen so that is on Beane and Dorsey.  So here were those plays?  There was no screens, the angle routes and Cook out of the backfield routes we hear so much about in the offseason where not there.  Some of that could have been on Allen not taking the easier throw, but again lets get to offensive design, if that was wanted SO MUCH.  Why were there not plays designed for the RB to be the first read??"

 

Another instance.  Wanting that TE2 again they prioritized a second pass catching TE in the offseason, Morris beats out Howard this offseason with the 2 TE sets, earns the spot and then those plays nonexistent.  So the two priorities (that I can only think Dorsey wanted) were addressed, then the season comes and we get a poor mans Brian Daboll offense"

 

The Bills have targeted a lot of situational players and then never really utilized them(Crowder, Cook, Hines, Man coverage DB in Elam when they want to play zone.  These our problems created from the top down in my opinion and unless change starts happening at the top, it's just going to be more of the same.  

 

I don't dispute either of those points. There has been some disconnect in the build at certain spots. 

[dave mcbride]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I am seriously worried Tre is done and we are never going to see the all pro version of Tre White again. He has lost all of his confidence out there. I would not be stunned if he decided to call it a career, honestly. 

Also:

https://russellstreetreport.com/salarycap/nfl-salary-cap-faqs/#:~:text=If a player unexpectedly retires,the “Barry Sanders Rule”.

 

'If a player unexpectedly retires in his prime, while playing under a long term contract in which the team gave the player a signing bonus, the CBA allows the team to attempt to recoup some of that Signing Bonus. This has become known as the “Barry Sanders Rule”.

 

If the team – usually after an arbitration hearing – is entitled to receive the return of a portion of the player’s Bonus, that amount is credited to the following year’s Salary Cap.

 

To be clear, though, not every retirement causes the return of bonus money.  In fact, teams often sign veteran players to contracts with a number of years that they know will not be fully reached.  In such cases, the teams never seek the return of bonus money – and likely wouldn’t win in arbitration, anyway.  The return of bonus money is only likely to occur when the player essentially retires unexpectedly and without legitimate reason (i.e. injury).'

 

He is 27 and played almost every snap late this season -- i.e., "in his prime." The Bills could absolutely go after the pro-rated portion of the bonus if they wanted, and they'd be within their rights to do so. They'd win.

[Bill from NYC]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. I am seriously worried Tre is done and we are never going to see the all pro version of Tre White again. He has lost all of his confidence out there. I would not be stunned if he decided to call it a career, honestly. 

No problem. That is what the 1st Round is for. Just ask McClappy!

22 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

 

He is 27 and played almost every snap late this season -- i.e., "in his prime." The Bills could absolutely go after the pro-rated portion of the bonus if they wanted, and they'd be within their rights to do so. They'd win.

Ah, let's keep him around. Like Marv Levy said, "you can't have too many corners." Maybe we should bring him AND Tre back!

[Rocbillsfan1]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

This is McDs first real test as a Head Coach. If he doesn’t show Frazier the door, then he too needs to go.

This is McD’s first real test? I don’t even know how this can be a serious post. I guess you missed the other 5 years of the coaching staff having ridiculous game plans and poor in game mgmt. but yea this is the first mistake and real test. I guess with that mind set better give him another 5 year deal. 

[dakrider]

If McKenzie, Beasley, Brown and Singletary are on the Bills next year then this team simply is not serious about putting together a championship team. These guys are not going to win you anything. On Defense Bills need at least 2 new defensive starting linemen and 3 if they can draft someone. And have to bring in at least one aggressive cornerback that can cover guys.  

[jethro_tull]

On 1/23/2023 at 6:20 AM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

Here's why: 

 

1) draft malfeasance: starting with the atrocious decision to to draft an undersized DT in the top 10 (a guy who's been rotational and not game changing in any way instead of a top offensive talent on the line or receiver) and ending with drafting a CB who isn't a scheme fit and therefore really didn't contribute all that much, Brandon Beane has failed in the draft post 2018. That failure was a DIRECT contributor to the divisional round ceiling this team now has. 

 

2) misplaced loyalty: McDermott is loyal. I get it. He doesn't want to throw his guys under the bus. Star L, Trent Murphy, Leslie Frazier, I could go on, but why? The man can't recognize cancer and lets it fester.

 

3) complete lack of situational awareness: this coaching staff is incapable of seeing the forest for the trees and is all too willing to continue doing what isn't working on and off the field in the name of continuity.

 

4) defensive malpractice: for guys who claim expertise in defense, this team's defense sucks, on ice. It's a worse version of the colts finesse defense under Dungy. It plays zone 90% of the time but can't stop a third and long if their lives depended on it. I'm over the soft zone. Time to go. 

 

5) it's just time. Sometimes a guy comes in, cleans house, gets things working. A guy may succeed in that job, but find himself incapable of taking the next step. That's Sean McDermott. He's a great culture builder and I mean great. But he's hit his ceiling..bring someone in who can get the job done. 

 

 

 

 

how much of the house do you want cleaned? 

[HOUSE]

11 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

how much of the house do you want cleaned? 

See, there you go, geeez 

[jethro_tull]

2 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

See, there you go, geeez 

not you....

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

25 minutes ago, jethro_tull said:

how much of the house do you want cleaned? 

Top to bottom 

[Big Turk]

That's never happening. Not only is it idiotic, you would take several steps backwards due to scheme changes and players that don't fit those schemes.

 

There is no "timeline" for when the dam will finally break in terms of getting thru the AFC championship game but history shows that will usually happen if knee jerk reactions don't prevent it.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Big Turk