Expected Points Added. The most important NFL stat is also almost unknown.

[Chaos]

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-ratings/nfl-epa-tiers/

 

 

This stat is the likely the best way to identify the strongest teams in the NFL.   And it relates the most directly to the eye test.  It shows for example, the Bills have good defenses and offenses, but that the offense is measurably better than the defense. More than any other divisional round team, the Chiefs rely more on offense than other teams, but have an average, not bad defense   

This link explains the concept https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/. 

Apologies to those who were told there would be no math. 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Chaos

[Ralonzo]

Bucs and Vikes two worst among playoff teams? Seems right.

[US Egg]

I like pretty team logo charts.

[nucci]

actual points are more important than expected points

[BearNorth]

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

[Mr. WEO]

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

[BuffaloBill]

8 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

 

 

The adage was probably true in the days when it was a “run” based league. It’ seems now you have to have a “good enough” defense and a really good offense that can score.  

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

 

That was not true yesterday.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

 

 

The adage was probably true in the days when it was a “run” based league. It’ seems now you have to have a “good enough” defense and a really good offense that can score.  

 

That was not true yesterday.

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

[SoCal Deek]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. 

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

one TD was given up by the offense with Allen fumble

[T master]

1 hour ago, nucci said:

actual points are more important than expected points

 

I'm with you - Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ...

Edited January 16, 2023 by T master

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Does anyone get extra conditional draft picks because of this? 🤔😇

[nucci]

Just now, T master said:

 

Analytics are great on paper but i'd rather see points on the board or being scored on the field than on paper just saying ...

getting tired of analytics. Some are ok but most are useless

[dave mcbride]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

Edited January 16, 2023 by dave mcbride

[GoBills808]

Allen also finished second in league EPA 

[Wraith]

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins D had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

Yeah, objectively speaking the defense played great and did exactly what was expected against a third string QB with some scary WRs. Both the running and passing output from the Dolphins were historically bad and all of their points up until the 4Q were basically gifted to them by the Bills offense and special teams.

 

Emotionally speaking though, the win would've felt a lot different if the defense didn't allow the Dolphins one and only actual TD drive to happen just as the offense was clicking again and had gone ahead by 10 in the 4Q. It felt like the Bills were about to run away with the game after the Gabe Davis TD (like they did against NE last week) but instead the defense gives up an easy looking drive and TD and suddenly the game is tight to the end. To their credit they locked things down again on the final two drives. The one drive definitely colors my perception of the defense and the game overall.

[K-9]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

Question: can defense lose Super Bowls? 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Actually, the defense only gave up 24….and maybe less if our offense and special teams would’ve stopped giving the Dolphins the ball at midfield. 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, nucci said:

one TD was given up by the offense with Allen fumble

 

my bad.    but after going up by 17 on the biggest playoff underdog in NFL history,  they gave up the lead  and went  down by 4 after the fumble TD.  Then, after the Offense scored  14 in under 3 minutes ,  Miami scored 11  unanswered.  Dolphins then melted down at 2 min with dumb penalties (false start, delay of game).  Even on that drive, the Bills D gave up 14 on a 2nd and 15.  They also gave up a 3rd and 19 on a drive that got Miami a FG, a 2nd and 15 on another scoring drive, a 2nd and 13 for a TD drive.

4 minutes ago, K-9 said:

Question: can defense lose Super Bowls? 

 

ask the Falcons

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

 

is "points a team could have scored with TDs instead of FGs" a new analytic metric for Defenses?

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

 

Depends. Tampa Bay destroyed KC's offense in the SB. Denver's D destroyed Carolina's O in the SB.

 

If you have an elite front 4, defense CAN win championships.

 

Look at Giants both times against the Pats too.

[MJS]

33 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The offense turned the ball over a bunch of times in their own end, or allowed huge returns after turnovers, and literally fumbled the ball and allowed a defensive score.

 

The defense played really well considering the constant stabbing in the back that the offense continued.