Expected Points Added. The most important NFL stat is also almost unknown.

[gobills404]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

The Dolphins offense scored 24 points, and 14 of them came on drives that started in Buffalo’s half

[Freddie's Dead]

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, gobills404 said:

The Dolphins offense scored 24 points, and 14 of them came on drives that started in Buffalo’s half

 

I acknowledged that error (24 not 31). see above

 

Defenses are still allowed to force 3 and outs in their own half of the field

Edited January 16, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[Tanoros]

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

whether you drive 70 yards and kick a FG  or 30 yards, why would it matter?

 

Why would that Miami Offense yesterday be expected to have scored more TDs on those short fields than they did? 

You misunderstood what I was trying I say. What I’m saying is, counting the field goals against the defense when Miami had a short field, already starting in field goal range. Those points shouldn’t be counted against the defense. 
 

What I meant by EPA, was that had Miami NOT had so many short fields, the odds are good that they wouldn’t have scored as many points, meaning our defense would have prevented some of those field goals. 
 

It was our offense and special teams that put the defense in positions where the defense is defending while Miami is in scoring position to start. So from my perspective, the defense overall played better than the offense, and reading our posts, it’s come across as if you feel the defense didn’t play as good as the offense (is that correct?). 
 

I understand your frustrations about the defense giving up so many long first down conversions (10+ yard conversions) and that equally frustrates me, however, those mistakes (in my opinion) don’t trump the turnovers or short fields that gave Miami an immediate scoring opportunity. 

[Dr. K]

24 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

there is a trend here to discount points scored on short fields, as though they pretty much are impossible to stop.

 

 see above

At the very least, when the opposing team gets the ball in field goal position, you would be insane to grumble about the defense allowing a field goal.

 

To say nothing about touchdowns scored by the other team's defense.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Tanoros said:

You misunderstood what I was trying I say. What I’m saying is, counting the field goals against the defense when Miami had a short field, already starting in field goal range. Those points shouldn’t be counted against the defense. 

 

this is plainly ridiculous

[T master]

19 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

The Bills don’t have too much trouble scoring points. 

 

No they don't but they don't always score the way they can or should . 

 

Yesterday was a day they should have took Miami to the wood shed & just beat them down but barely escaped with the win yes a win is a win weather it is by 1 or 40 but there is a lot they can do to prove that they are the juggernaut that every one has seen them be in the past .

 

The Fins were a team with a 3rd string QB & injuries to many of their starters that game should have been a walk in the park I was expecting a lot more in the second half after they made their adjustments which if it weren't for a couple of plays over turned there would have been more points but there wasn't .

 

And better teams await the Bills so hope they get the things they ned to straightened out ASAP ...

Edited January 16, 2023 by T master

[Tanoros]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this is plainly ridiculous

So when the Miami offense is gifted the ball while in position to score a field goal, and the defense doesn’t stop them from scoring the field goal, but prevents the TD, you would attribute more blame to defense for not preventing points or to the offense/special teams that gifted scoring position to the opposing team? 

[Mr. WEO]

4 minutes ago, Tanoros said:

So when the Miami offense is gifted the ball while in position to score a field goal, and the defense doesn’t stop them from scoring the field goal, but prevents the TD, you would attribute more blame to defense for not preventing points or to the offense/special teams that gifted scoring position to the opposing team? 

 

First FG, Dolphins get the ball at their own 40, go on a 10 play drive (in which they D gave up plays of 20 and 19 yards--the latter on a 3rd and 19).  kikced a 40 yard FGH.

 

Second  FG (after Josh INT), the Dolphins began at the Bills 48.  They would get 2 more 1st downs and 18 more yards on 8 more plays to get to the 30---and it was still a 48 yard FG.  

 

Third FG FG, after a Bills punt, Dolphins return it 50 yards to the Bills 27.  Despite moving back to the 32 on a penalty (would have been a 50 yards FG), the Bills gave up a 13 yards pass play to Hill.  Now it was a 37 yard FG

 

 

 

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

“Bills Offense measurably better than Defense”

 

the score also reflects this

@Airseven  @jkirchofer

 

Your responses to this allegation?

[Tanoros]

2 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

First FG, Dolphins get the ball at their own 40, go on a 10 play drive (in which they D gave up plays of 20 and 19 yards--the latter on a 3rd and 19).  kikced a 40 yard FGH.

 

Second  FG (after Josh INT), the Dolphins began at the Bills 48.  They would get 2 more 1st downs and 18 more yards on 8 more plays to get to the 30---and it was still a 48 yard FG.  

 

Third FG FG, after a Bills punt, Dolphins return it 50 yards to the Bills 27.  Despite moving back to the 32 on a penalty (would have been a 50 yards FG), the Bills gave up a 13 yards pass play to Hill.  Now it was a 37 yard FG

 

 

 

So the defense should have given 0 yards? That’s your stance? Those yardage totals you mention wouldn’t have been enough for points assuming the Miami offense started anywhere from the 20-35 yard line as is typical if not for the turnovers. No one should EVER expect a defense to give up 0 yards. That’s just “ridiculous”. 
 

Obviously it’s no so simple as just saying the defense or offense was the worst unit of the two. Both units made mistakes and both made good plays. However, you seem to be taking the stance that the defense shouldn’t allow points regardless of field position, and that take is not based on reality. When a team scores, the vast majority of the time, the scoring is done against the defense (that’s the nature of the game of football). However, it’s not out of question to attribute blame to the offense/special teams when those units give the ball to the opposing team in immediate scoring position.  
 

See how I qualify my statements and actually acknowledge both sides of discussion? Those that stand on their high horse and don’t acknowledge both sides of a discussion come across as disingenuous and pushing an agenda, making it much harder to to give that person the benefit of the doubt. It would be wise to acknowledge your point while conceding that it’s not 100% definitive, but rather a point of view based on personal observations (of which you have shared). However, it’s still a point of view and not the definitive truth, and you seem to be forgetting that part. 
 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, Tanoros said:

So the defense should have given 0 yards? That’s your stance? Those yardage totals you mention wouldn’t have been enough for points assuming the Miami offense started anywhere from the 20-35 yard line as is typical if not for the turnovers. No one should EVER expect a defense to give up 0 yards. That’s just “ridiculous”. 
 

Obviously it’s no so simple as just saying the defense or offense was the worst unit of the two. Both units made mistakes and both made good plays. However, you seem to be taking the stance that the defense shouldn’t allow points regardless of field position, and that take is not based on reality. When a team scores, the vast majority of the time, the scoring is done against the defense (that’s the nature of the game of football). However, it’s not out of question to attribute blame to the offense/special teams when those units give the ball to the opposing team in immediate scoring position.  
 

See how I qualify my statements and actually acknowledge both sides of discussion? Those that stand on their high horse and don’t acknowledge both sides of a discussion come across as disingenuous and pushing an agenda, making it much harder to to give that person the benefit of the doubt. It would be wise to acknowledge your point while conceding that it’s not 100% definitive, but rather a point of view based on personal observations (of which you have shared). However, it’s still a point of view and not the definitive truth, and you seem to be forgetting that part. 
 

 

no I didn't say that either, obviously, but you repeating things I didn't claim is indicative of your inability to understand what I posted. 

 

It's really simple:

 

I'm refuting that all the  FG were the result of Miami being gifted the ball in FG range.  One was in their own territory, one at mid field.  The crucial plays were listed.  

 

Those FGs were not inevitable based on their starting position on the drive, as you and others are maintaining.  2 of them were drives to get within FG range, therefore opportunities for Defensive stops. 

[Chaos]

57 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

this is plainly ridiculous

It is plainly ridiculous.  The person making the comment you responded seems to have no understanding of the concept of expected value.  

[What a Tuel]

14 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

no I didn't say that either, obviously, but you repeating things I didn't claim is indicative of your inability to understand what I posted. 

 

It's really simple:

 

I'm refuting that all the  FG were the result of Miami being gifted the ball in FG range.  One was in their own territory, one at mid field.  The crucial plays were listed.  

 

Those FGs were not inevitable based on their starting position on the drive, as you and others are maintaining.  2 of them were drives to get within FG range, therefore opportunities for Defensive stops. 

 

We understand what you are posting. It just makes no sense. Most of the dolphins points came off of drives that were helped more by the Bills offense/special teams than the Bills defensive play.

 

The proof of this is in the 9/10 other defensive drives, the defense held Miami hard allowing 59 TOTAL yards in those 9 drives combined. Or a spectacular 6.5 yards a DRIVE. Suffice to say the Bills offense and special teams gifting the ball with better field position had a direct impact on the Dolphins ability to score points. The one exception being the 75 yard drive the defense allowed for a TD towards the end.

Edited January 16, 2023 by What a Tuel

[Sierra Foothills]

3 hours ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

 

As you know whether defense wins championships or not is not a yes/no question. Many people still can't break the habit of looking at complex issues in an oversimplified and binary way.

 

The question (if there is one) is, "How good does a team's combined offense and defense have to be in order for that team to be considered a Super Bowl contender?"

 

1 hour ago, Tanoros said:

It’s not discounting the points scored, it’s recognizing the fact that the odds are Miami wouldn’t have scored as much if they didn’t have so many short fields (if you need an example read the post about EPA for reference about the truth of that statement). 

 

It would be a shock to find out that there isn't a positive direct proportion between drive start and points scored.

 

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Any serious person who understands the NFL ranks Allen as no worse than the third best QB in the league.  He raises up the rest of the talent and coaching on his team more so than any other player in the league. (In my opinion Andy Reid coaches offense better than the Bills).  

No one had built a perfect model for projecting who will the next game. But this model, which has no subjectivity, is better than any I have seen.  

 

 

I like the model and agree that the Super Bowl will be won by one of those 4 teams though I believe that Cincinnati is also in that group.

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, What a Tuel said:

 

We understand what you are posting. It just makes no sense. Most of the dolphins points came off of drives that were helped more by the Bills offense/special teams than the Bills defensive play.

 

The proof of this is in the 9/10 other defensive drives, the defense held Miami hard allowing 59 TOTAL yards in those 9 drives. Or a spectacular 6.5 yards a DRIVE. Suffice to say the Bills offense and special teams gifting the ball with better field position had a direct impact on the Dolphins ability to score points. The one exception being the 75 yard drive the defense allowed for a TD towards the end.

 

Does it make sense to suggest that the Bills Defense (#2 in points allowed) cannot allow the expectation that they can prevent a successful FG drive from midfield or the opponent's own 40 yard line? It's just too much to expect for this Defense against that Offense?

[What a Tuel]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

Does it make sense to suggest that the Bills Defense (#2 in points allowed) cannot allow the expectation that they can prevent a successful FG drive from midfield or the opponent's own 40 yard line? It's just too much to expect for this Defense against that Offense?

 

No but that plus the 75 yard drive equaling 10 points is well below the 16 points per game allowed by the best defense in the league let alone the 35 needed to beat the Bills. Throw in the other 4 pts from the td from the Bills 18 yard line after the INT if you want. Still only 14.

 

The defensive performance was just not the problem this game.

[Bermuda Triangle]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The defense gave up 15 points yesterday: https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401438002. The Dolphins started 3 drives in FG range yesterday and scored on a fumble recovery. On the three drives that started in FG range, they scored one TD, meaning the D gave up 5 points they could have denied (inclusive of the 2-pt conversion). That’s 16 points that the Dolphins O had to do zero work for. 15 points were legit, but even three of those came after a terrible Bass kick that gave the Dolphins the ball at the 40.

that's still more points than the Dolphins averaged with Thompson at QB.

[Buffalo716]

8 hours ago, BearNorth said:

This would tell me that a great offense [KC] can trump a great defense [49'rs].  For years the talking heads have said defense wins Super Bowls.

Because it has won a lot of super bowls lol

[Chaos]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Because it has won a lot of super bowls lol

Just not nearly as many as great offenses in the 21st century. 

[LABILLBACKER]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen also finished second in league EPA 

I always knew Josh was all about the environment.....

[Buffalo716]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Just not nearly as many as great offenses in the 21st century. 

You can win 17 out of the last 23 Super Bowls with 24 or less points

 

75% of the time In the 21st-century you could win a Super Bowl with 24points or less 

 

It’s not a lot of shootouts 

Edited January 16, 2023 by Buffalo716

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

sure it was.  Offense hung 34 on Miami while the D gave up 31 to an Offense led by a 3rd sting QB with 100 career pass attempts.

Actually WEO the defense only gave up 1 long scoring drive. Every other point scored by Miami was based on an offensive or ST mistake.  Our offense is so dynamic they're capable of generating points for both teams.  And they did that yesterday. Our defense still terrifies me but yesterday was not on them.

Edited January 16, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[ganesh]

The chart tells me:

There are a few good/great. teams

There are a few bad/worst teams

Every other team in the NFL is in the same league...Average.

 

The Salary Cap has kept the competitive balance in the sport and allows bad teams to become great teams and with a few minor ticks the average teams can go from average to good or bad depending on the decision. 

It is truly a game of inches!  Go Bills!

 

[BearNorth]

20 hours ago, K-9 said:

Question: can defense lose Super Bowls? 

Atlanta proved that a few years back.