We're on to Cincinnati(Bengals coming to OP). Sunday 1/22 at 3pm. Opening Line Bills -5

[ColoradoBills]

36 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I kind of felt ethically compelled not to censor folks since I don't like it when I am erased for various reasons, but I take your point and free speech really should only apply to ideas and not intentional black magic.

 

I'm totally different.  When I click on this site it's like I'm inviting people into my house.  I expect them to act accordingly.

I have no problem telling some that they have to leave.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

[PaattMaann]

1 minute ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

 

Thats what I put our odds at, 60/40...so makes sense in my mind. ESPN matchup predictor shows Bills at 65%

[mannc]

On 1/16/2023 at 5:20 PM, Protocal69 said:

Its already be said that Hyde is NOT playing until at least the AFCCG. Catch up

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-micah-hyde-out-vs-dolphins-veteran-safety-would-also-be-out-for-divisional-round-if-team-advances/#:~:text=The neck injury that sidelined,his 21-day practice window.

 

The neck injury that sidelined Hyde back in September was initially expected to keep him out until next season, but the Bills recently designated for him to return from injured reserve and opened his 21-day practice window. However, it appears the Bills will have to make it at least as far as the AFC title game before he is able to get back on the field. 

Whatever you say…

[teef]

2 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

also 6 out of 10 wins.

[Beck Water]

49 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

If what you write here is correct, that's entirely on coaching.  It's their job to make Josh the best he can be and to wipe out bad habits.

I still can't believe they haven't impressed on him the importance of holding onto the ball correctly when he runs.

 

He holds it "loaf of break" style in one hand, then waves his huge arm all around....3 o'clock, noon, 9 o'clock, back to 3'clock.  Now wonder he has been a fumble machine this year.

 

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running.  At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks.  So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date.  That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either.

 

TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability.  Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time.

 

Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes.  He  points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much.  That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game.  He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more).  He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much.  He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays.   I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen.

 

My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything.  They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop.  Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks.

 

Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will.  We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant".   Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him.  And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way.

 

Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight.  And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable.

 

I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully.  Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

Edited January 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Scott7975]

33 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

This has been discussed a lot on some podcasts I listen to, and based on what we know of the offense, the WR's have a TON of discretion in the routes they run and where they end up based on the defense alignment pre snap (WRs have mentioned that this offense is unlike anything they have ever played in before). This likely leads to them being around each other a lot more. Sometimes they are reading similar open spots and both end up there via different path ways, and sometimes one guy might read the D wrong and takes his route to an incorrect place which might lead to them being in the same spot. It is a downside of the offensive design, as well as execution. 

 

Same token, its very difficult to defend because there aren't as many tendencies for defenses to pick up on. 

 

I would guess that also means its tougher on the QB/WR because they have to read the play the same exact way everytime or those miscommunications and ints can happen.  Those "where the F was he throwing to" can also happen.

[hondo in seattle]

32 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

https://www.nflgamesim.com/nfl-game-simulator.asp

 

Just played Bills/Bengals matchup 10 times. Bills won 60% of time and by AMV 26.1-18.6 (7.5). Try for yourself.

 

Bills win 49 to 30 in my last sim.  Allen accounts for almost 500 yards: 367 passing, 129 rushing.  

 

I like it.  

[reddogblitz]

10 hours ago, BillnutinHouston said:

 

Hmm...how to explain the mid-roll acceleration?

 

And why did he kick Wonder Boy in the coconuts?

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, HopelessNJBuffaloFan said:

So, i think i am somewhere in the middle where folks are on this board. I think the Bills can win this game, but we have all seen they try to hard to not win games in the last few weeks. Some points IMHO:

 

- Even with Cin offensive line hurt, wont matter. Dolphins were worse and the only way we got to him was to blitz.

- Josh is not the same Josh that started the season. Hurt? Head crap? Definitely not the same.

- Dorsey still does not impress me. (Yes i know, points and the rest yea yea) He moves away from things that work and forces stupid forced plays to work. (Not saying he is horrible)

- Our defensive backfield gets slashed pretty easy with the worst QB's.... Burrow is not one of them and they have incredible receivers! 

- Have you ever seen a team that sucks so bad on screens?? They are an embarrassment at it.

 

I know i am being Debby downer, but Bill's play of late does not give me warm and fuzzys. Either way hoping for a win, but wont be surprised if they lose. Take Bengals and the points!

I already took the 4.5 points and Cinci. That's just way too many points in a game like this. 

[Magox]

The Bills are the better team, why?   Josh Allen.

 

Josh Allen's B game is better than most high end QB's A game, maybe not stat wise but in terms of converting critical plays.  He makes throws and extends drives on third down that other QB's simply can't do on a consistent basis.  It's crazy to hear some Bills fans criticize his play, it's nuts.  

 

If the Bills play their A game they beat any team in the league, period!   If they play their normal run-of-the mill B game which they've played lots of B and C games its still good enough to beat 90% of the teams in the league.   

 

What separates Josh from the other QB's in this league aside from his arm and ability to run the ball is his sheer will to put the game on his shoulders when its on the line and will the team to victory. 

 

I think we'll win and my hopes are that the Bills begin kicking it into another drive from here on out.  They showed signs of it last game but between the unforced errors on the drops, fumble for TD, miscommunication on int's it led to an uncomfortably close victory.  Scrap out a few mistakes and the Bills win that game by 30.    

[reddogblitz]

6 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

You can rely on getting there with 4. McDermott needs to take the headset from Fraizer and dial up pressure. Leslie Is never going to do it. He will keep running the same thing over and over regardless praying Burrow gets bored and makes bad throws. That’s not going to happen. We need to sent heat all game because we won’t get there with 4.

 

Looked to me like we did a lot of blitzing against the Fish.

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Process said:

 

 

Chris Simms is an Allen Homer and his "take" all season has been that the Bills offense is too dependent on Josh Allen to create plays in the passing game and to generate running offense.  It follows he must believe that the Bills aren't running a capable offensive system that would support Josh playing within it. (they waffle a bit, but Erik Turner of Cover1 has expressed that same viewpoint at times)

 

I find it interesting to compare and contrast his view with that of Kurt Warner, whose OBL interview a few weeks ago I summarized in a different post up thread (recommend giving it a listen) who explicitly states that he believes the Bills have a "good system with a lot of good solid concepts" (~7:45 in), and who basically seems to believe that Josh is feeling the need to play outside the system and create offense, when he could let the defense dictate where he goes with the ball and let the offense work for him. 

 

I will say that in general, when Josh has gone to the other weapons on the system, like Knox, McKenzie, Morris, Gilliam, Cook, Singletary - they have made those plays for him.  Gilliam, Knox, Singletary, and Morris are all rocking catch % >70% and McKenzie and Cook are right around 65%.  Shakir is still a "work in progress", but hopefully he's turning the corner with 3 receptions on 5 targets (though, c'mon man! on that drop)

 

Anyway, so, there are different viewpoints on the Bills offense out there from pundits.  I tend to believe Kurt Warner has forgotten more Ball than Chris Simms and Erik Turner will ever know, so I'd go with his assessment (also, because when I look at film where Josh has thrown picks, I usually see alternatives)  but, YMMV.

 

Oh, one other thing - the Bills run game has improved, independent of Josh Allen, the last 8 games.

1st 8 weeks: 124 rush ypg, Allen 49 rush ypg: 75 rush ypg other than Josh

most recent 8 weeks: 146 rush ypg, Allen 38 rush YPG: 108 rush YPG other than Josh.  It's not up to "league average" but, league average includes significant rush yard contributions from about 6 QB, enough to influence the average I think.

 

[newcam2012]

37 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

On the fumble machine thing, I put up data on this partly through the season where I characterized each fumble as QB/C exchange, strip sack, or fumble while running.  At that time, the majority of Josh's fumbles were on QB-C exchange or strip sacks.  So unless you have data that differs for the last 3-4 games, your characterization of Josh as a "fumble machine" when he runs has been wrong to date.  That said, I don't like the way Josh holds the ball when he runs, either.

 

TL;DR for what follows: the problem with an immensely physically talented QB like Josh who can actually make all these plays, is that you can't just get in his grill and yell "stop doing this, always do that instead" without limiting or removing his special play ability.  Instead, it's about refining and molding his decision making, and that's much harder and takes more time.

 

Kurt Warner did an interesting interview with Brown and Tasker where he talked about how as a QB, he had no option but to learn to read the D and make correct, fast decisions because he simply couldn't make the special, Unicorn plays Josh makes.  He  points out that as a HOF QB, he threw a lot of turnovers and that if you're an aggressive QB who pushes the ball down the field, he believes you will make more good plays than bad so turnovers don't bother him so much.  That said, he talks about how he thinks it's hard to for a QB to live in a place where he has to make 15-20 special plays per game and that to be successful against the best defenses in the playoffs, a successful playoff QB has to be able to see and take the layups and maybe make 4-5 special plays per game.  He says he believes the offense in Buffalo is a good solid system (that would support Josh playing "in system" more).  He talks about how he'd like to see Josh play more in system in the red zone and not feel that he needs to run around and create so much.  He acknowledges that he was NOT one of the guys who can do all the special stuff that Josh can do, so he doesn't fully understand that mindset, but he says that one reason Mahomes and Allen are so special is that they CAN do both things well (play in system as well as create outside the system) and acknowledges that it must be a hard thing to balance out when you're used to making so many big plays.   I know some here don't like Kurt Warner's QB Confidential pieces on Josh but I think it's a fascinating listen.

 

My impression is that Daboll had no fear of lighting into Josh and setting him straight on anything.  They had a relationship built from the ground up, when Josh was coming into the league and depending upon his coaches to help him develop.  Daboll had the carrots, and Daboll had the sticks.

 

Now Josh is an established star, and he basically spoke up for Dorsey and got him the job so Dorsey is, to some extent, dependent upon Josh's good will.  We can kind of see that Dorsey is "low man on the (coaching) totum pole in that McDermott stuck him with John Butler, the DB coach, as his "Passing Game Coordinator" and Joe Brady as his QB coach then Mike Shula as "Senior Offensive Assistant".   Joe Brady is a great X's and O's guy, but outside of the backup QB Josh no longer has a real QB coach on the sideline with him who can coach QB vision or technique if something is getting away from him.  And while Daboll was unquestionably "running the show" by his 3rd year, I think Dorsey is running "Offense by Committee" and feeling his way.

 

Bottom line, I think the offense lacks a "single voice" and possibly lacks someone who feels like they have the clout to set Josh straight.  And I hope that's a problem they solve in the off-season because we have Russ Wilson as the shining example of what happens when an undoubted QB talent grows beyond being coachable.

 

I do think that Dorsey is overall feeling his way successfully.  Josh has said things in interviews about realizing that the QB has to be an extension of the OC on the field and see things the same way or it doesn't work, and that it took some doing but they're getting to a good place now (this was weeks ago, around the Thurs. nite games).

What really strikes me as funny is how much live Daboll is getting. I can clearly remember year after year people here criticizing Daball. Going as far as saying he should be fired. The criticism wasn't a one off either. Fast forward to Daboll's success as a head coach. Now Daboll is some sort of legend in Buffalo. 

[extrahammer]

Just three more wins and we get a Super Bowl trophy. 

[jsh1031]

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by jsh1031

[CorkScrewHill]

injury report .. overall looking good .. hopefully it will remain so ...

 

 

 

[Scott7975]

Hopefully we get Phillips back this week.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

19 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I already took the 4.5 points and Cinci. That's just way too many points in a game like this. 

I really don’t think that’s true…bills are at home and the bengals losing 3 olinemen really mitigates the bills’ biggest issue.  

 

It’s also up to 5.5 now so you should’ve waited 😂  I could see it going over 6 when those guys are ruled officially out 
 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Process]

5 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really don’t think that’s true…bills are at home and the bengals losing 3 olinemen really mitigates the bills’ biggest issue.  

 

It’s also up to 5.5 now so you should’ve waited 😂  I could see it going over 6 when those guys are ruled officially out 
 

 

He hasn't bet sh*t lol