Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen in the Miami Game

[Beast]

Kurt Warner wishes he could have played the position like Josh Allen does.

Edited December 21, 2022 by Beast

[YattaOkasan]

7 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

I will never forget Bradshaw saying Josh was not accurate enough and "never would be".  F him.  You don't see him say a word about Allen now, bc he eats crow every time it somes up

Bradshaw is def not worth listening too.  His best completion percentage was 62.5%.  He doesnt know what it takes to be accurate.  His TD % is good at 5.4% (a tick over Josh's career 5.3), but his INT % is putrid at 5.4%.  Overall, he has a below average HoF score for someone thats in (from PFR) and his most famous play is a lucky bounce.  Combined he played with an all time great defense I think he gets much more respect than he deserves. 

[GoBills808]

24 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Agree completely

 

 

Exactly.  The Bills punted 5 times and had a strip-sack fumble where Josh was trying to extend the play.  We ended the game with an absolutely BRILLIANT ~6 minute, 15 play drive.  But get points on even 1 or 2 of those drives that ended in punts, and we're just eating clock on that last drive, not depending upon it to win.

 

 

No one said anything about "without moving".

I don't think Warner watches enough of the Bills to know how inconsistent the oline play is

 

If he had, he would never criticize rolling out and looking for Morris 1v1 instead of trying to hang in the pocket and hit Singletary on that Texas just hoping everyone can hold their block 1v1

 

Look, these are the same pundits who at the beginning of the season were calling this the deepest roster in the league by far and are now (correctly) questioning whether there's even an above average level of talent on the offensive side of the ball minus QB

[starrymessenger]

I dont think Allen is less cerebral than Tua, or even Warner for that matter. I've too often seen him make the right read and execute properly (though more so last year) to believe that. He's also quite capable of getting the ball out fast when he wants to. If he declines an easy lay up for a lower percentage chunk yardage option it's not because he doesn't understand or because he's limited in his ability to read and react. Its because he's Josh Allen and his blood is up. Josh Allen can do things probably no other QB can do because of his transcendent physical ability. I think he could roll to his right and complete a go route down the opposite side. I'm all for his using his physical skills to greatest advantage but I've got this feeling that playing Pop Warner hero ball is not what you want as regular fare and that it could catch up to you, maybe at the least opportune moment. Take the layups. Try to turn broken plays into game changers only when you have to i.e. when the called plays are unavailable. I want Josh to have an even better career than Brett did and I think he can probably do that (with some help from his friends).

Speaking of his friends, I take Kurt's point regarding the Bills WRs running poor routes. It's something other game day commenters have properly noted as well as some posters. Too often two receivers in close proximity. Can't imagine that's how those plays were meant to run.

[Doc]

Did Kurt roll out of bed right before filming that?

[CoudyBills]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is not doing Warner credit as a QB.  No, he was not a running QB, and yes, he was coached to stay in the pocket, but he was one of those "teflon" guys we saw like a younger Tom Brady or Drew Brees - he had that uncanny body sense of where defenders were and could just take a step and make the defender miss or duck and let the defender sail over him then make the throw. 

 

In addition, how to read defensive coverages post-snap and identify the best option has not changed.  It's not a "style of play" thing, it's seeing the leverage, understanding what the defense is giving you, and taking it.

 

Look.  Here's the series from the very first play Warner breaks down (click to enlarge).  We converted 2 1st Downs, then Punted.  Miami then proceeded to go on a 14 play drive, including a 4th down conversion, ending in a FG.

The play Warner breaks down is 1st and 10 incomplete to McKenzie.

 

Allen is going for the "kill shot" to the WR running the deep over route, who happens to be McKenzie on this play.  But the CB is initially dropping to cover the over route McKenzie is running, and there's a safety back there as well who closes by the time Allen pulls the trigger.  (Eventually, Allen gets the CB to bite and move forward to cover Diggs and open up the deep route to McK, but by then the safety has closed)

 

Allen he has three, count them, THREE, receivers who are wide open early in the play, including 2 underneath guys who could gain some yards, and Diggs, who is our BEST receiver no question, open as *****  and past the 1st down marker.  McKenzie is the "kill shot" if Allen completes the throw, but he's actually the best covered of the WR.  Allen throws to him, the pass is broken up by the corner we see dropping back to take it away.

 

Allen hits Diggs on time instead, we get a first down and maybe some more, we keep moving the ball down the field and at least wind up with points.  

 

 

 

He isn't "coaching Josh down", he is pointing out that Josh has options to sustain drives that he's not taking.  It's the difference between NEEDING that drive at the end of the game (and the DPI that might not be called) to win, vs. going into the 4th with a comfortable lead.  

 

People complain that Dorsey isn't "scheming guys open" or they "see no evidence" that there are open guys underneath that Allen isn't hitting.  Here are 3 WR schemed open including Diggs, and Allen is choosing the least open guy.  People complain that the OL isn't giving Allen enough pass protection.  Well, Allen has more than enough pocket time to throw to Diggs, he's asking more of his OL so that he can wait for a deeper option.  The OL would look a lot better in pass pro, too, if Allen would take some of these easier shots.

 

Moreover, the tape is out - it doesn't matter that's McKenzie back there.  It could be Davis, it could be Diggs.  Allen will almost always choose his deepest option if he thinks there's a chance, and teams know it and cheat their coverage that way which is why the deep options aren't working as well as they did earlier in the season (and why we keep stalling out and punting early in games).  It's why you see Singletary and Knox  with enough green around them to plant a ***** Christmas Tree farm, and why you see Diggs, one of the best and most scary receivers in the league, with so much space around him.

 

This is really Football 101 and critiquing Warner as an old fuddy-duddy whose football time has passed when he points this out misses the fair, IMHO. 

Last but not least, why on earth would you choose the judgement of that bloviating never-was Rex Ryan, over a 2x 1st team all-pro with 3 SB appearances and a SB ring? 

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, CoudyBills said:

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

Did you watch the video? Can you explain how Allen is supposed to 'hold a spy with his eyes'?

[Rochesterfan]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Thanks for posting but I only got through 9 minutes before giving up. Kurt Warner clearly doesn't like Allen's style and it colors his evaluation. So on the 1st drive he talks about the miss to McKenzie on 3rd down. He says a throw to Davis at the sticks is the easier throw. But the read to McKenzie is fine, he's open Allen just sails the pass. The play was bad but not for the reason Kurt Warner says. Then on the TD to Morris he criticizes Allen for immediately running out of the pocket. I guess Kurt Warner hasn't watched a lot of Allen film, because Allen runs to the right all the time to set up an easier throw. He isn't bailing the pocket, he immediately sees that Morris is in single man coverage with the safety in trail so he runs to the right to set up a good angle and then throws a dime. That is the kind of throwing platform Allen prefers. This play in particular was unbelievably poor analysis so that was the end of the video for me.

 

I am going to try and watch more later, but I am 2 plays in on Knox’s catch and Warner misdiagnosed the defense.  He called it a single high safety and diagnosed what to do, but if you watch at the snap they switch it up to a 2 high defense with the outside CB dropping into a deep half look.

 

I then saw the Cover 1 Knox video and they confirmed this.

 

I am not sure that Kurt is actually doing the work on these - I think someone else is putting it together and Kurt is doing the minimum.

 

Even the 1st play where Josh overthrew the target - Kurt is like take the easy throw, but you can see Miami dropping off and baiting that throw - I don’t think Kurt is anywhere near as caught up on defenses as he tries to sound and I think he is talking as if it was still the early 2000’s when he played.

 

So far I am not impressed with his understanding of the Bills offense and his lack of seeing the Defense.  

If he was the QB - both throws would have gone short to the underneath routes for small gains, but he would not have faced a defense that is having to protect all levels the way teams have to with Allen and Mahomes.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Rochesterfan said:

 

I am going to try and watch more later, but I am 2 plays in on Knox’s catch and Warner misdiagnosed the defense.  He called it a single high safety and diagnosed what to do, but if you watch at the snap they switch it up to a 2 high defense with the outside CB dropping into a deep half look.

 

I then saw the Cover 1 Knox video and they confirmed this.

 

I am not sure that Kurt is actually doing the work on these - I think someone else is putting it together and Kurt is doing the minimum.

 

Even the 1st play where Josh overthrew the target - Kurt is like take the easy throw, but you can see Miami dropping off and baiting that throw - I don’t think Kurt is anywhere near as caught up on defenses as he tries to sound and I think he is talking as if it was still the early 2000’s when he played.

 

So far I am not impressed with his understanding of the Bills offense and his lack of seeing the Defense.  

If he was the QB - both throws would have gone short to the underneath routes for small gains, but he would not have faced a defense that is having to protect all levels the way teams have to with Allen and Mahomes.

The shot to McKenzie was the correct throw and it had to be high

 

McKenzie doesn't even try to go up for it for some reason or it could have been a completion

 

 

[Rochesterfan]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

The shot to McKenzie was the correct throw and it had to be high

 

McKenzie doesn't even try to go up for it for some reason or it could have been a completion

 

 

 

I agree - you see that as Josh sets to throw - the CB and LBs both break to Diggs - that was the throw they were baiting.

 

It opens up McKenzie for the throw Josh made.  It was a bit high, but that was the read.

 

The Dolphins set the defense up to converge on a throw to Diggs and even though I think he might have completed it for 10 yards - they were looking to get a big shot on him.

 

Kurt never even mentions the fact that as Josh sets to throw - the deep CB that Kurt says is preventing the McKenzie throw is already breaking down at Diggs leaving a huge window.

 

 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I agree - you see that as Josh sets to throw - the CB and LBs both break to Diggs - that was the throw they were baiting.

 

It opens up McKenzie for the throw Josh made.  It was a bit high, but that was the read.

 

The Dolphins set the defense up to converge on a throw to Diggs and even though I think he might have completed it for 10 yards - they were looking to get a big shot on him.

 

Kurt never even mentions the fact that as Josh sets to throw - the deep CB that Kurt says is preventing the McKenzie throw is already breaking down at Diggs leaving a huge window.

 

 

I'm also not really sold on his critique of the Morris TD tbh

 

I don't think Allen is watching the spy, I think he's watching Jaelan Phillips go inside on Brown leaving a bunch of 1v1's to the right so he immediately has broken contain

 

It was 100% the right play and likely something they key on in zero man

[Rochesterfan]

10 hours ago, Protocal69 said:

I was going to post this as a separate post but decided not to but my question is.

 

Is it time for the Bills to get a big body receiver who can make contested catches?

 

I know that one key to Josh Allen development was getting away from big bodied receivers to receivers that can run precise routes. This was probably the right approach because of Josh Allen accuracy issues in his 1st couple of seasons in the league.

 

Now that Allen ball placement and accuracy is better now I think we can revisit the need of a WR that can make contested catches

 

Here is an example of what Im talking about from the 1st Dolphins game in the second clip for the pass into the endzone. Now imagine a receiver like Mike Williams or out of last draft class George Pickens that plays for the Steelers. Gabe would be a excellent player but for his size he drops too many contested catches. If he could fix that issue along with his weak ankles that would be ideal but if not I think we should invest either through the draft or free agency for a Mike Williams/ Mike Evans type of receiver.

 

One last case to support my case is the fact that we play are most important games in Dec/Jan/Feb:) I think it helps to have size at the receiver stop to help in the redzone/run game WR blocking and for footing purposes. I might do some research on this certain aspect to see if it really does help in that regard.

 

 

 

For me the answer to this is a resounding NO!!!!!!

 

The Bills looked at a big body/big catch radius guy because they were concerned about accuracy.

 

Now that he has accuracy- give me route runners all day long.  Guys that can get separation and guys that can follow Josh when he scrambles and get open.

 

Josh is good enough at hitting windows everywhere that I do not want a slow guy posting up for catches unless he can also get open in the middle of the field also.

[Comebackkid]

5 hours ago, clayboy54 said:

My take away is that Gabe and Isaiah have to work on their route timing. That is a valid point. Several of the good route concepts were broken because one or both of them were too fast in their timing. The route was done before the progression developed.

 

This absolutely explains why we see far less success in the downfield passing this second-half of the season. They need to slow down and relax in their route running. It may be Dorsey not giving them routes they are already accomplished at as well. But, they need to grow their game to get better for Josh.

So this is what make me go hmm..    I want to step back and put this more on the wr coaches and maybe Dorsey as how the play is being drawn up.   As far as Dorsey goes, when it comes to nuances, timing, the critical thought process of designing these rountes, does he have the knowledge to teach it?   Josh as Warner said is still growing and developing, but who there is at that level to take Josh to the next level.   I think thats where Dorsey becomes a handicap. 

6 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

For me the answer to this is a resounding NO!!!!!!

 

The Bills looked at a big body/big catch radius guy because they were concerned about accuracy.

 

Now that he has accuracy- give me route runners all day long.  Guys that can get separation and guys that can follow Josh when he scrambles and get open.

 

Josh is good enough at hitting windows everywhere that I do not want a slow guy posting up for catches unless he can also get open in the middle of the field also.

get a big body reciever that has some speed..   doesnt have to be exclusive of each other.  

[Coldfronts]

Josh does make things harder than they need to be at times

[finn]

Warner keeps saying "You can't get away with that" before admitting that Allen did in fact get away with it. It's like Warner wants Allen to be ordinary so he can show why what he does is bad football. But if what Allen is doing "wrong" ends up working repeatedly, it's not wrong, by definition. 

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

If you're talking about the first play Warner diagrams, which was the Bills 2nd drive, it's 1st and 10 to McKenzie and that's Diggs at the sticks.

Warner's point is that by the time Allen manipulates the CB with his eyes to come up on Diggs and open McKenzie, the safety has closed.

 

You're also I think missing Warner's point about Allen moving right.  His point is that because there's a guy spying Allen, when Allen rolls right unnecessarily (protection is good), he takes the spy right into Singletary's path and cancels what would otherwise be an easy throw over the middle of the field with lots of space for Singletary to get the touch.  Count noses: Warner is correct, there is absolutely NOBODY HOME who could prevent it, IF Allen stays in the pocket and maybe even looks left a little to freeze the spy.

 

It's great Allen completes the "dime" to Morris, and it's 1st and 10 so as long as Allen doesn't throw a pick we have 2 more shots if he doesn't.  But it's no way poor analysis by Warner.  We complain all the time about our drives in the red zone stalling out and having to settle for FG.

 

Warner is correctly pointing out the easy shot the play is designed to scheme open against that defense, and how Allen is taking that very easy shot away from himself by rolling to the R when he doesn't have to.

 

You don't have to agree with Warner all the time (I don't), but I'm surprised you can't even be open minded enough to give him a full listen.  He 100% Knows His Ball.  He watches Josh Allen a lot - I would say at this point he's even somewhat fascinated with Allen because of Josh's abilities to do things he knows he couldn't have done.  But that doesn't mean he doesn't see different choices Allen could make that would be easier and sometimes higher % thus better.

 

 

 

 

I disagree slightly here on a couple of points - first - on the first play he diagrams I think the Dolphins are trying to bait the throw to Diggs.  The CB and the LBs begin breaking on Diggs as Josh begins to set-up.  I think from experience Josh know exactly what was going to happen.  He sets up and chooses the throw to McK in the deep window because he knew the CB was going to drop down and open the window.

 

Yes he might have had a completion to Diggs, but I think Josh saw the coverage and recognized where the window was.  He could easily take a few shorter throws, but I actually think Josh recognizes things better in real time based on tendencies that Kurt did reviewing tape others cut up for him.

 

The second play Warner is not incorrect, but I am not sure I agree with him either.  If Josh stays in the pocket - the spying LB stays back and if Josh hits the RB - he is running right into the LB and the safety with coverage - he gains 3 to 5 yards.

 

Josh on the play knew from the snap that with the routes Morris was 1:1 with space to the outside - Josh rolled out to give himself a better angle on the throw he knew he was going to attempt.  He trusts his guys in 1:1 situations to win and he wanted a better angle.

 

I believe Warner might have hit the RB on the route and taken a short gain because when he played the LB would not have been spying him and therefore would have most likely dropped back leaving a bigger space.

 

Yes Josh ran the Spy into the RB window, but that was never the throw he was making - he read the 1:1 and at that point the spy became irrelevant to the play.  Kurt wants him to stay and read, but Josh had already diagnosed the weak spot in the D and the coverage they wanted to attack.  
 

Warner is fine looking at plays, but I think he grossly underestimates Josh’s ability to diagnose and decide where to go and to recognize what the defenders are going to do.  He does not read things the same as Kurt because they have different experiences, but in several of these plays Josh is finding the 1:1 and open windows to allow his guys to make plays.

 

 

 

 

[Comebackkid]

1 hour ago, finn said:

Warner keeps saying "You can't get away with that" before admitting that Allen did in fact get away with it. It's like Warner wants Allen to be ordinary so he can show why what he does is bad football. But if what Allen is doing "wrong" ends up working repeatedly, it's not wrong, by definition. 

Usually he followed that up by saying, again..most qbs dont have the talent to get away with this.  

i think for the most part Warner is saying...dont unnecessarily create a problem or a risk that you have to overcome.   We know that Josh

is great at overcoming a lot of problems, issues.   some of them though are created by the bills themselves.   

[CoudyBills]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Did you watch the video? Can you explain how Allen is supposed to 'hold a spy with his eyes'?

That's your 1 criticism of a 1 hour video?  That's an overly homer take.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Nice to get a 1-Hour video breaking this down.

 

WGR 550 - Nate Geary and Joe DiBiase, have said this line over and over and it’s starting to get parroted a lot by callers and other hosts - there aren’t enough “layups” engineered by Dorsey into this offense.

 

But you can see here that there are layups.

 

Josh is just not that Quarterback to constantly check down. Instead he holds and looks for deeper throws, and usually there isn’t a ton of separation.

 

The other thing that becomes apparent is, even in the Red Zone, when the Bills are at the 15 yard line, these routes end up taking 25 yard ropes to complete.

 

Josh is in shotgun, the WRs run into the end zone, so these aren’t 12-yard throws.

 

Gabe’s comeback route to the sideline, that takes a 20-25 yard rope to complete consistently. The Bills understand the arm strength of their QB and play to it with a lot of routes that take time to develop and run across the field, they’re just not shallow. 
 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Rochesterfan]

13 hours ago, CoudyBills said:

This, 100%.  Some of the responses here are so homerish it makes me wonder if they think Josh is their boyfriend.  The x's and o's are the x's and o's no matter who is playing.  

 

That is not really true.  The X’s and O’s are not exactly the same depending upon the QB and design.  The idea on zone coverage schemes is to find 1 or 2 guys and pressure them with multiple guys in that zone and then to hit one of them as they become free, but the QB and OC watch tape and mark tendencies to decide which windows they think provide an opening they want to attack.

 

The 1st play is a perfect example - the Bills run a 3 level concept at the top of the screen to pressure the zone.  The short throw for a short gain is open throughout for a quick lay-up throw and 4-5 yards and on to second down.

 

Diggs at 10 yards is who Kurt wants to hit and based on Defense and tendencies- he is open for a 10 yard gain, but if you watch - when Josh sets to throw that way - the deep CB and the 2 LBs break on Diggs.  That is the throw the defense expects and the throw they are working to get to as Josh throws.  
 

Josh seemed to anticipate this and that put McK in a 1:1 with a safety in trail technique.  That is the window they wanted to attack - especially early with good weather because that deep third then pressures that CB all night to be 1-2 steps deeper making the other windows open slightly more.

 

In Man to Man coverage - the Bills look for a lot of 1:1 routes where a guy gets caught in trail technique.  Again there was an easy set-up to the RB on the inside route, but from the snap and with the defensive set-up - Josh knew he had Morris 1:1 with a route  versus the RB that was going to end up with a LB inside and a DB outside based on the routes.  Josh recognized before the snap the defense and knew where he wanted to go and then moved to position himself for the throw.

 

Kurt is not incorrect in that if Josh stays in the pocket and reads the break - he holds the LB and leaves a nice window to Cook, but based upon the study and why the Bills called the play - Josh from the snap knew where the mismatch coverage was and what he wanted to get.

 

The X’s and O’s May dictate one way to read the play, but the QB and OC also make certain plays where they look for a specific expected coverage and run plays to exploit that coverage to give leverage to a specific player to make a play.  That play was not about Cook versus the inside route - Cook’s route was designed to ensure the LB and his coverage player stayed short and out of the passing lane to the TE in a 1:1 near the goal line.

 

I truly believe it is one of the things that many of these experts do not understand about Josh - he is super cerebral and recognizes many things based upon film study and tendencies and makes reads based upon that.  It can screw him up if a player on defense goes off script - for example rather than cover Cook - if his guy had drifted back to provide double coverage unexpectedly, but that is when Josh gets off script and then usually buys time to look for a second or third guy to win his coverage.  In this case - the Defense did exactly what the Bills expected and Josh rolled to his right to give himself a better angle with no chance to get the pass tipped.

 

 

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't think Warner watches enough of the Bills to know how inconsistent the oline play is

 

If he had, he would never criticize rolling out and looking for Morris 1v1 instead of trying to hang in the pocket and hit Singletary on that Texas just hoping everyone can hold their block 1v1

 

Look, these are the same pundits who at the beginning of the season were calling this the deepest roster in the league by far and are now (correctly) questioning whether there's even an above average level of talent on the offensive side of the ball minus QB

Link where Warner or Cosell called us the “deepest roster by far”?

 

Or Simms for that matter

 

Not at all sure it’s the same pundits

 

I think Warner watches the Bills a lot

 

 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Beck Water

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

Take it for what it is. Im sure some old time butterfly style goalies would be harsher in their critiques of Hasek too … doesn’t make them wrong based on their POV

[Beck Water]

Jim Kubiak talks about some of the same plays that Warner breaks down. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-tight-end-and-running-back-high-low-concept-helped-bills-qb-josh/article_df25bcb2-7ffe-11ed-bc7e-0354648364b9.html

 

On some, he sees the same things.  On others, he either doesn't, or doesn't comment on them.

 

Kubiak on the strip sack:

Quote

The dreadful third quarter carried into the fourth quarter on Buffalo’s ninth offensive possession. The Bills’ defense had stopped the Dolphins, forced a punt and put Allen and the offense on the 49-yard line with a terrific opportunity to score points on a short field.

 

Here, Miami was again in man-to-man coverage and, as Allen stepped up in the pocket and shuffled to his left, Jaelan Phillips got around right tackle Spencer Brown and sacked Allen, stripping the football away just as Allen was about to deliver it down the field. The video showed Allen looking for a deeper throw into the middle of the field, rather than taking what appeared to be an easy completion underneath to Cole Beasley to Allen’s left.

 

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.  They are sometimes giving Josh more than enough time to make a completion - they just aren't always able to give Josh enough time to make the deeper completion he's trying to hit.  And that's compounded by defenses studying Allen's tendencies, because they know they can plaster the deeper options and give less attention to the shallow throws as Allen won't take them.

 

Where Warner and Kubiak differ in what they see/say, I think a HOF QB who got there due to his abilities to read the field and manipulate defenders might see options Navy's best QB misses, and his interpretation is at least worth hearing and considering - but YMMV.  And BTW, Warner did not always have the benefit of a great OL.  Some years yes, some years no.

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

Jim Kubiak talks about some of the same plays that Warner breaks down. 

 

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-how-tight-end-and-running-back-high-low-concept-helped-bills-qb-josh/article_df25bcb2-7ffe-11ed-bc7e-0354648364b9.html

 

On some, he sees the same things.  On others, he either doesn't, or doesn't comment on them.

 

Kubiak on the strip sack:

 

They both comment that there was an easy completion to Cole, and that the strip sack resulted from Josh buying time and looking for a deep throw when an easy completion was there.  And I think that's a theme that critics of our OL need to consider.  They are sometimes giving Josh more than enough time to make a completion - they just aren't always able to give Josh enough time to make the deeper completion he's trying to hit.  And that's compounded by defenses studying Allen's tendencies, because they know they can plaster the deeper options and give less attention to the shallow throws as Allen won't take them.

 

Where Warner and Kubiak differ in what they see/say, I think a HOF QB who got there due to his abilities to read the field and manipulate defenders might see options Navy's best QB misses, and his interpretation is at least worth hearing and considering - but YMMV.  And BTW, Warner did not always have the benefit of a great OL.  Some years yes, some years no.

 

 

 

I think Cover 1 also talked about Warners film review, but they thought that Warner reads and diagnoses based on how he played - on schedule and from the pocket.

 

They also disagreed with several of Warners takes because they do not fit with how the Bills run the offense and the expectations.

 

They specifically mentioned that they thought Warner struggled with off production offenses that do not read and play in the same rhythm that he was used to.

 

They stated many of his reads would be fine if he was the QB, but they are not how the Bills run the offense with Josh at QB and Kurt has failed to adapt to these new schemes.

 

We will see, but I am not sure that a Hall of Fame QB is better than a guy that has studied the Bills system for a longer period of time.

 

Both points of view may be valid, but I would trust guys that actually see practice when they can and talk to the players - over a guy watching the film to understand what the Bills are doing and seeing.

 

Not a big deal - just another point of view.

 

 

 

 

[Logic]

First I'll say that I think the video was quite fair. I'm not always a fan of Warner's analysis, and I'm usually among the camp that senses a bit of a subtle dislike of Josh on his part. This video was not one of those instances, though, in my opinion.

My main takeaway is that all season long we've been saying "players aren't making plays for Josh!" and "he has to do it all himself!" and "Dorsey needs to draw up better plays", and while there is some truth to all of those things, I'm starting to see more and more that it's not the whole truth.

There are times -- some shown in this video, some seen in other cutups and analysis, some recently brought up by Isaiah McKenzie on Tyler Dunne's show -- where guys ARE open. Where plays ARE well designed. Where Josh is refusing to take the gimmes and the layups and is instead making life harder on himself. Some of this will never go away. To some extent, looking for the biggest play and the biggest possible gain on every down is just who Josh is. It is, in part, what makes him so dangerous and so unique.

On the other hand, Josh has been at his best throughout his career when he's willing to take what the defense gives him, to take the throws to the flats and the quick hitches and slants, and then hit the big plays when defenses start to creep up. There are times, like the strip sack against Miami, where not taking a 4 yard gain resulted in a turnover or other negative play that greatly impacted the game in a bad way for the Bills.

This video and some others recently have me more encouraged about Ken Dorsey, for one thing. There are still times that his play design (or the execution of the design by the players) is sloppy. For instance, we see two receivers end up in the same spot far too often. But I think that, by and large, there are open guys on most plays, and Josh -- for whatever reason -- is either failing to see them or refusing to throw to them. I'm also encouraged that the supporting cast is a bit better than what we've all been screaming all season. 

My hope is that the offense has a bit of momentum from the Dolphins win and that Josh is now fully healed (he said today his elbow feels better than it has in a long time) and that the hiccups of a new OC are starting to get ironed out, and that things improve from here on out. The biggest way to make that happen is for Josh to start taking the layups. So, as much as it pains me to say it, Kurt Warner is right!

[GoBills808]

19 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Link where Warner or Cosell called us the “deepest roster by far”?

 

Or Simms for that matter

 

Not at all sure it’s the same pundits

 

I think Warner watches the Bills a lot

 

 

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

[Eastport bills]

When did Kurt become an expert on critical analysis of what will determine success at the QB position? This league has never seen a talent with the skills of JA17. I’m not even talking exclusively  about his arm talent running ability, but more his pocket presence and escapability in the pocket. Our O-line routinely allows free rushers and Josh avoids certain sacks that Warner gave up being a statue for the most part. Naturally Josh has to overcome poor route running because when teams double Diggs, we don’t have a true number 2 receiver and McKenzie is spotty in the slot. Teams have to protect against Josh running when flushed so he makes plays off schedule as a part of our offense. Kurt got a gig as an analyst but his criticism of Josh has a bias towards the type QB he is. Kurt was a journeyman underachieving QB for most of his career other than his few years with an incredible surrounding cast at St. Louis. That doesn’t qualify him as knowing more than a Bills follower.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

Couple points (you are of course free to not respond)

 

Singletary is running the RB half of a Texas concept without the post, which may be why Warner incorrectly designates him as the read

 

QB doesn't hold or move a spy with his eyes, the spy goes where the QB goes. He doesn't care about where the QB is looking.

 

Singletary is not the read because Allen literally never looks his way. Morris w inside leverage and a defender who is trailing is the right throw.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Couple points (you are of course free to not respond)

 

Singletary is running the RB half of a Texas concept without the post, which may be why Warner incorrectly designates him as the read

 

QB doesn't hold or move a spy with his eyes, the spy goes where the QB goes. He doesn't care about where the QB is looking.

 

Singletary is not the read because Allen literally never looks his way. Morris w inside leverage and a defender who is trailing is the right throw.

 

 

 

Yea I don't think that play was every designed to go to Singletary either. I think it is a designed play to Morris. I thought it was actually quite a nice design compared to some of what we have seen in the redzone at points this season. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I don't think that play was every designed to go to Singletary either. I think it is a designed play to Morris. I thought it was actually quite a nice design compared to some of what we have seen in the redzone at points this season. 

I think it's pretty obviously not either. Singletary can either stay in to chip Jaelan Phillips and then probably leak into flat, or Allen can motion him into that route to lift coverage but he's not a read. It's a throwaway imo.

 

This play is obviously for Morris, I mean Allen looks left presnap at Davis, McKenzie, and Diggs trips and then never even glances that way again? And Warner is trying to say Singletary is the throw here? LMFAO

[Rochesterfan]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I watched the Morris TD again

 

Allen actually motions Singletary out of pass pro into that route to lift coverage from Morris, the play was definitely not designed to go to him. Warner is just wrong

 

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think you may be working a little bit too hard to "prove" Warner is "wrong".

 

When an RB is motioned out of pass pro into a route, he becomes a route running option - a receiver, a choice the QB can throw to - part of the design of the play.

 

The route Motor ran contained what I believe is termed a "rub" (though my understanding of how the terms "rubs" and "picks" gets used is fuzzy) with Morris and his defender essentially screening off the defender assigned to Morris from Singletary - giving him a head start to get open.    If Motor had an option and ran for the sideline, he would pull coverage off of Morris more directly if that were the intent.

 

It's possible that if Josh held the spy with his eyes and by setting his feet, the "spy" would pick up Motor, though I think the Dolphins respect Josh's feet too much for that to be his assignment.

 

I believe the point is, there are a lot of people yelling that Dorsey doesn't scheme guys open in the red zone and we're relying on WR to "beat their man" and Josh to buy time with his feet and create.  But what if that's wrong?  What if Dorsey has in fact designed quick pass options which scheme guys open against different coverages, and Josh isn't taking them, when he could?

 

I give up now, because I think this is one of these instances where nothing I could possibly say would possible cause you to reconsider your POV

 

 

 

The reality is you are both correct (as is Warner).

 

I believe they shifted the RB to confirm the Dolphins we’re playing Man Coverage.

 

Then Singletary job was to bring his coverage guy up and to the middle to leave Morris 1:1.

 

The issue is the LB - at the snap it is not clear if he is a spy, potential blitzers, or a drop into coverage as they have an in breaking route from the top of the screen and Singletary moving toward the middle.

 

I believe based on Tendencies- the Bills 100% expected Man/Spy from the Dolphins and Josh moving to his right confirmed the LB was a spy.  
 

Where I disagree with Kurt is that in this offense - I don’t think Singletary was a read at all.  The play was Morris 1:1 and Josh rolling out with a run/Pass option.  When the LB broke to keep contain and the coverage on Morris in trail - Josh went for the pass.  If the coverage had been deeper - I think Josh tries to run it in and only has the LB to beat.

 

If Kurt had been my QB and less athletic- the read is probably to Singletary as the LB would not be in Spy coverage and would have dropped back toward the goal line.  It also probably impacted Singletary’s coverage as his guy looked to maintain outside leverage - I think to keep eyes on Josh.  I think with Kurt as QB he attacks Singletary quicker.

 

Again - I don’t think Warner is miss diagnosing the play, but as Cover 1 put it - He is diagnosing it as if he was the QB not Josh and the 2 have different was of reading how defenses attack them.

 

I also think that Dorsey has done a fine job of using players to manipulate defenses and scheming guys open and Josh sometimes decides he would rather take a 15-20 yard chunk shot over a 5 yard gimme.  We saw in Miami in September- Josh took the Gimme’s all game and they bogged down in the red zone when 1 guy finally couldn’t make a play.

[HappyDays]

So much debate over a play that was thrown for a TD. The all-22 world has gone crazy. I trust Allen in the scheme that he's been personally running for five years now to know what he's doing. That doesn't mean it's always going to be perfect. But if an analyst finds a reason to criticize this play, it's because they're looking for one. I've become so sick of people watching film assuming that they know everyone's individual assignment and the reads the QB is supposed to follow. Kurt Warner is a HOF QB but not in this scheme in this offense with Josh Allen's skill set. If a play ends in a passing TD, unless it was a complete fluke you can say that the QB and the pass catcher did their job correctly. It isn't that complicated.

[2003Contenders]

Because of Josh's unique talent and skill set, I think it is fair to say that he is able to defy the conventional thinking on any given play. The play to close out the first half certainly comes to mind. Any decent coach would say that what Josh did there was NOT what you are supposed to do, when a sure 3 points are potentially abandoned. However, the OUTCOME of the play is that the Bills scored 7 points instead.

 

It's is almost like evaluators like Warner feel compelled to tell the viewers at home, "do not try this on your own".

[Tanoros]

21 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

Your a very right. In many ways Allen is still a young qb, and finding the right balance between being aggressive and taking the easy stuff is something he still needs to figure out. 
 

The way I see it, we have games (a lot this year) where we fail to put drives together because of many compounded reasons (stuff at the line for no gain or little, pre/during play penalty, dropped pass, tough contested drop, and throw away). When we are having these issues, there are plenty of times Allen will look to hit a deep throw, instead of taking the easy stuff and getting a drive going. What I’m getting at, is besides finding the balance in general, I think Allen could benefit from recognizing in game, when it’s time to dial up the aggressiveness or dial it back. 
 

Allen has worked hard every offseason to improve, and I expect finding the right balance between being aggressive or not is something he will work on for the rest of his career. 

[bouds]

This was a balanced assessment, QBs are not going to make the perfect read every play, it’s critical that these issues get addressed.  That said, Gabe Davis is not that dude, Warner showed multiple plays where Gabe just ran poor routes and took himself out of being a legitimate pass option. Need to upgrade.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay, so should Allen literally never look for deep throws? Should he assume before every snap that Spencer Brown will lose his rep and forget about even trying to make explosive plays? Maybe against the Lions instead of waiting in the pocket for Diggs to get open downfield he should have just thrown a check down and conceded overtime? There's no good answers here. In general I think the offense could use more quick pass designs, but you have to hit explosive plays to consistently win football games. If he had another second of protection he probably gets that pass off and who knows if it's completed but it's a chance at an explosive play. I just think it's a little unfair to Allen to criticize him for letting plays develop. It's not like there was a jailbreak on the play, Spencer Brown just got beat.

But can't force the defense to tee off bullrush using 4 to the QB. They'll take away middle to deep throws. All about playing like Chess like vs teams. As well as not pinning all on Allen he has a human mind like all of us too much is bad things.  I'm for the deep throw if it is there. Underneath throw if there. Run when need to run. Being balanced.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Buffalo Bills Fan