Devin Singletary not scoring a TD with 34 seconds left

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

In normal conditions then absolutely. In those conditions that wasn't a chip shot. If Bass slips and misses the kick and they lose, then this board would be going nuclear on McDermott and Singletary. It worked out so who cares now as the Bills won.

 

if he ran in and bass slipped and got 17 yards on the kickoff we would’ve lost our minds. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Rochesterfan said:

 

So you were worried about a slip on a short FG, but would of been ok with the longer XP and a significantly more important kickoff.

 

I just don’t know what to say.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_City_Miracle

 

Avoid kicking off, avoid backwards pass plays and all the crap that comes with them (i know NE just lost on one, but i feel like players get hurt and there's always a chance for a stupid TD).  It was a 25 yard field goal with no time left.  

 

5 FGs have been missed inside 30 this year, on 190 attempts.  Thats a 97% success rate, and if Bass says he's got it - i trust him. 

[hemma]

50 minutes ago, Chuck Schick said:

Did anyone noticeably slip at any point during the game?  I think Tua stumbled once, but not really a slip. 

 

May have been my imagination, but it looked to me like their entire front 7 had a tough time gaining traction after it started snowing.  Motor would hit the line and in my head would pop ‘2 yards’, but all of a sudden he’d still be moving and come out the other side with 6 or 8.  Some of it was push after the contract, but their front 7 looked like they were on skates.  

I think he got 36 on 7 carries on the last drive.

 

 

[Orlando Tim]

16 hours ago, Neo said:

Full disclosure.   I’ve not coached an NFL team and I’ve not run the numbers, but:

 

Seems to me odds of taking the TD and allowing 34 seconds and winning are greater than running out the clock and kicking the FG.  Assumption:  No team misses an xtra point if they get a TD.  Situation becomes Bills up by seven.

 

Miami has to score a TD in 34 seconds and then beat us in OT.  I think this is less likely than a FG on that turf (cleared or not) with that makeshift OL.

 

One poster has Hill living rent free in McDermott’s mind.  There may be something to this.

The numbers state that a chip shot field goal is a 99% proposition, which is why the extra points was moved back. The numbers state Waddle and Hill are fast enough that if one defender slips they will go to the house. The numbers are by a large margin on the decision made, not your theoretical world. 

[Cash]

1. Sanchez criticized Singletary for not scoring, but then seconds later started pontificating about how the Dolphins should've pushed him into the endzone.  So my takeaway is that Sanchez was just talking in the hopes he'd say something smart.

 

2. It's true that even a short FG isn't a given in those conditions.  It's also true that tackling one of the fastest players in the NFL isn't a given in those conditions, and the Dolphins have 3 of the fastest players in Hill, Waddle, and Mostert.

[Steptide]

Here's why Sanchez was annoyed Imo. Sanchez wanted a sexy ending to the game. Bills score and go up 7, Sanchez wanted to see Miami go down the field in 1 min and tie it up for overtime. That would've been the more entertaining finish and Imo, that's what he wanted to see without telling the audience that's what he wanted 

[Buckets]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:42 AM, chongli said:

 

McD is growing up! Bills 6-3 this year in games decided by one score or less! Take that Cowherd.

Yeah about that, have we had enough one score wins to satisfy everyone who was bitching about that so we can get back to blowing out our competition? 😁

[sherpa]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

Here's why Sanchez was annoyed Imo. Sanchez wanted a sexy ending to the game. Bills score and go up 7, Sanchez wanted to see Miami go down the field in 1 min and tie it up for overtime. That would've been the more entertaining finish and Imo, that's what he wanted to see without telling the audience that's what he wanted 

 

Like most announcers, I'll bet Sanchez just wanted to get out of the stadium as early as possible.

[Neo]

4 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

The numbers state that a chip shot field goal is a 99% proposition, which is why the extra points was moved back. The numbers state Waddle and Hill are fast enough that if one defender slips they will go to the house. The numbers are by a large margin on the decision made, not your theoretical world. 

Your condescension aside, and with no comment on the theoretical world you constructed to critique mine, any decision is made in all of our theoretical worlds.  McD made a choice in his theoretical world.  That’s the topic.   I’m not sure I’m correct, but i’d like to see the number of TDs in thirty seconds vs chip shots in snow globes.  We could name the combinations and permutations of 22 players at a time slipping.  Everyone has their favorite risk and uses that as evidence.  None can be eliminated.  I’ll take the points in hand (100%, and the only inarguable certainty in this mess of a debate) and defend.  Sitting in front of a television watching 300 pound men pawing at plastic grass trying to move slippery snow made the points on the board very valuable to me.  You can disagree.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

7 hours ago, hemma said:

 

May have been my imagination, but it looked to me like their entire front 7 had a tough time gaining traction after it started snowing.  Motor would hit the line and in my head would pop ‘2 yards’, but all of a sudden he’d still be moving and come out the other side with 6 or 8.  Some of it was push after the contract, but their front 7 looked like they were on skates.  

I think he got 36 on 7 carries on the last drive.

 

 

Snow helps an offensive line.

Edited December 20, 2022 by ExiledInIllinois

[CoudyBills]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:27 AM, WhoTom said:

Yeah, I was in the "he should have scored the TD" camp for the reasons you gave. Ideally, you want to leave no time on the clock, but this ain't Mahomes we're dealing with. I doubt Tua could engineer a miraculous TD drive in the snow with 30 seconds and no TOs.

 

 

All he need to engineer was another 1 play drive to Waddle or Tyreek.  

[Rochesterfan]

21 minutes ago, Neo said:

Your condescension aside, and with no comment on the theoretical world you constructed to critique mine, any decision is made in all of our theoretical worlds.  McD made a choice in his theoretical world.  That’s the topic.   I’m not sure I’m correct, but i’d like to see the number of TDs in thirty seconds vs chip shots in snow globes.  We could name the combinations and permutations of 22 players at a time slipping.  Everyone has their favorite risk and uses that as evidence.  None can be eliminated.  I’ll take the points in hand (100%, and the only inarguable certainty in this mess of a debate) and defend.  Sitting in front of a television watching 300 pound men pawing at plastic grass trying to move slippery snow made the points on the board very valuable to me.  You can disagree.  

Well considering in that game alone the Dolphins already had a 3 play 51 second 72 yard touchdown drive and early had a 5 play drive at slightly over 1 minute for a FG.

 

The week before the Dolphins had a 3 play 65 yard TD drive in just over 1 minute.

 

A 7 play 53 yard TD against the Browns in 53 seconds.

 

A 4 play 75 yard drive against Chicago - it took 2 minutes with the running clock, but using a timeout and with OOB time stops that would have been 30 seconds of game time.

 

A similar 4 play 70+ yard drive versus Detroit for a TD.

 

4 Long TD drives versus Baltimore - 2 in 1 minute and 2 slightly longer because of the clock rules.

 

So on the season the Dolphins have about 10+ drives of 60 to 90+ yards in 7 plays or less - several in 3 or 4 plays and several in well under a minute without using timeouts or OOB stoppage that they have here at the end.

 

So to me - a shot at a 97-99% chip shot FG versus giving the ball back to a team that has already scored 10 times on long limited play drives with time and a timeout should be a no brainer 100% kick the FG with :00 on the clock and do not give them the chance to perhaps score to tie or choose to win.

 

Control the outcome on offense.

 

 

[CoudyBills]

8 hours ago, Greg S said:

 

In normal conditions then absolutely. In those conditions that wasn't a chip shot. If Bass slips and misses the kick and they lose, then this board would be going nuclear on McDermott and Singletary. It worked out so who cares now as the Bills won.

If only the team had some sort of idea of the field conditions.  

[Orlando Tim]

55 minutes ago, Neo said:

Your condescension aside, and with no comment on the theoretical world you constructed to critique mine, any decision is made in all of our theoretical worlds.  McD made a choice in his theoretical world.  That’s the topic.   I’m not sure I’m correct, but i’d like to see the number of TDs in thirty seconds vs chip shots in snow globes.  We could name the combinations and permutations of 22 players at a time slipping.  Everyone has their favorite risk and uses that as evidence.  None can be eliminated.  I’ll take the points in hand (100%, and the only inarguable certainty in this mess of a debate) and defend.  Sitting in front of a television watching 300 pound men pawing at plastic grass trying to move slippery snow made the points on the board very valuable to me.  You can disagree.  

You stated "the odds of scoring the TD and running out the clock is greater than a field goal" which is wrong. Not allowing the other team to touch the ball makes the worst case an OT game. Your way creates the chance of missed Extra Point or the Dolphins getting a two pt conversion. My way is 1% OT, based on old EP stats, your way is worse odds. 

[Pags24]

He made the correct and selfless decision in not scoring.  Don't give Miami an opportunity to score a TD.... game over

[Billsatlastin2018]

Vigorous debate in the bar. We couldn’t hear the announcer, but I was certain Motor gave it up.

 

Most of us, given the conditions, thought that was very unwise. Notwithstanding, I knew the TO situation. Identical to Baltimore, except for the snow falling. We couldn’t even see whether the FG went through!

 

NO chance Tua leads them to a tieing Td with 34 ticks.

Unwise imho.

[Scott7975]

He did the right thing. Whether people are agreeing with it or not, realize he was coached to do so. This was the coach learning from 13 seconds. 

[Don Otreply]

27 minutes ago, Pags24 said:

He made the correct and selfless decision in not scoring.  Don't give Miami an opportunity to score a TD.... game over

This ^^^
 

 I said it before, and I’ll say it again, McDermott et all, removed Hill and Waddle, from the equation by not scoring the available TD, and then successfully kicking the field goal,

 

… then McDermott dropped the mic 🎤 and walked to the locker room, singing softly to himself, “damn it feels good to be a gangster” …, 
 

 

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

NO chance Tua leads them to a tieing Td with 34 ticks.

Unwise imho.

And we'll never know or want to know either way 

 

It was right choice.

 

The FG was shorter than a new PAT. Miami had the wind.  Miami was Offside. If they messed up, another kick would have been from 2. Old PAT distance...

Edited December 20, 2022 by ExiledInIllinois

[FireChans]

100% the right call with Waddle and Hill on the opposing team. Two of the biggest "one play TD" threats in the NFL.

 

If the Bills have the chance to do the same thing against the Chiefs or the Bengals in the postseason, I hope they do the exact same thing.