Orlando Tim Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 minute ago, pennstate10 said: Hey, just curious. after seeing missed 35 and 38 yd kicks this week, is everyone absolutely sure that not taking a sure TD was the right move? My opinion is that it was a close decision, but that McD should have taken the TD. FG, especially in bad weather, might be 90+%, but it’s never 100% We kicked from the 3 yd line not the 20, so still not a close decision. Literally a 1% of OT if we attempt field goal, vs chance of EP miss and kick off return and speed of Waddle and Hill on 4 or 5 plays. I understand that comeback chance is 5% for Fish but that is and 80% improvement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pennstate10 Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Orlando Tim said: We kicked from the 3 yd line not the 20, so still not a close decision. Literally a 1% of OT if we attempt field goal, vs chance of EP miss and kick off return and speed of Waddle and Hill on 4 or 5 plays. I understand that comeback chance is 5% for Fish but that is and 80% improvement. Kick was from the 15 yd line so it was 25 yd not 20. where did your figure of 1% come from? Is this based on any facts or simply made up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big C Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 What was the wind like at the time? We know if was snowing but I don’t think the wind was as bad. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanSD Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 48 minutes ago, pennstate10 said: Hey, just curious. after seeing missed 35 and 38 yd kicks this week, is everyone absolutely sure that not taking a sure TD was the right move? Yes, I'm still sure. Yesterday's games were strongly affected by the weather across the country. Comparing that to the relatively pleasant conditions we faced in this game is apples/oranges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 2 hours ago, pennstate10 said: Kick was from the 15 yd line so it was 25 yd not 20. where did your figure of 1% come from? Is this based on any facts or simply made up! I thought we had kicked from 3 yd line, which is old EP, and that was 99+% which is why it was moved back, did look it up and it was from 7, so 24 yard kick. I though did some more looking and here is 2014-2018 numbers. https://www.footballperspective.com/nfl-field-goal-rates-from-2014-to-2018/ Still above 98%. The 5% was based on ESPN gamecast at the time. Limiting dynamic players abilities to make great plays is part of winning in NFL, and Hill and Waddle are dynamic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 3 hours ago, pennstate10 said: Hey, just curious. after seeing missed 35 and 38 yd kicks this week, is everyone absolutely sure that not taking a sure TD was the right move? My opinion is that it was a close decision, but that McD should have taken the TD. FG, especially in bad weather, might be 90+%, but it’s never 100% Did the Bills win the game? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KHAN Posted December 26, 2022 Share Posted December 26, 2022 Cool. We're on to week two of debate over an easily defensible decision that worked perfectly to secure a win. Well done chaps. Cheerio! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rochesterfan Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 (edited) 21 hours ago, pennstate10 said: Hey, just curious. after seeing missed 35 and 38 yd kicks this week, is everyone absolutely sure that not taking a sure TD was the right move? My opinion is that it was a close decision, but that McD should have taken the TD. FG, especially in bad weather, might be 90+%, but it’s never 100% It was still 100% the right decision as there was almost no wind - which is what caused the misses. 🤦♂️ If you play the what if game - did you see Miami score on a 1 play 84 yard drive or the 3 play 77 yard drive this week? The Bills 100% made the right decision and controlled the outcome - any argument for scoring the TD is just wrong. Every percentage and finding shows that the chances of a Bills victory were higher by Devin going down. The chance of a Dolphin victory was enhanced by Devin scoring. Miami’s quick scoring offense added to that by scoring on 20% of their drives (2 out of 10) on long drives of 3 plays or less for TDs giving them 12 long, quick drives on the year and multiple versus Buffalo - which on the season pushes their % of long, quick scoring drives to nearly 9% - still much higher than the 1 -2% missed FG % in history. So - No at this point very few - maybe only you - are left rooting for the Bills to make a play to reduce their chances of winning. 🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️ Edited December 27, 2022 by Rochesterfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrimeTime101 Posted December 27, 2022 Share Posted December 27, 2022 Why is this still being questioned? it was the right move... by far... THAT was the practice run for dealing with KC if/when they play them in the playoffs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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