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Bills among "unluckiest" teams in terms of Net Win Probability Added(worst in terms of FR luck)


Big Turk
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Every time we play someone we get their best effort.  Almost flawless performance by qbs that normally would be considered mediocre or worse. Injuries have devastated this team, yet by some miracle we're still 8-3. More players sick, more players going down. I don't know if the SB is in our stars this season but I sure wish a little luck would come our way.

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Turnovers are always a key stat in wins/losses, but I bet it is even more so for a team like the Bills. The dropped INTs and unrecovered fumbles really are noteworthy, especially for a bend-but-don't break defense like the Bills'. The defense is built to force the opponent to drive the distance of the field, requiring more plays to hit pay-dirt -- and, consequently, more opportunities for something bad (for the offense) to happen. When the defense fails to cash in on turnover opportunities, it can lead to a long day.

 

Probably the most glaring non-turnover that strikes me, was in the Jets game. Thanks to a successful fake punt, the Jets held the ball for about 9 minutes before Miller got the strip sack on Wilson -- creating a fumble that WAS recovered by the Bills. Alas, Josh immediately throws an interception that puts the Jets right back into scoring range.  (Despite all of the red zone INTs, this to me was Josh's most egregious turnover... but I will save that for another discussion!) Anyway, on the very next play, the Jets run a toss sweep and Garrett Wilson fumbles the ball. He doesn't just fumble the ball, he sends it flying 10+ yards downfield -- yet somehow with multiple Bills defenders in the proximity, Wilson is able to recover the ball himself. We all know what happened next.

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Rather surprised by the FG stat.  Seems to me we get a fair amount of FGs missed against us (not excessive, but when almost 90% of kicks are made, it doesn't take much).

One thing we have going for us WRT dropped INTs, is that Allen often throws w/ a higher than average velocity, making it harder to catch, particularly when you're not used to it.

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Not surprised by this.  We're exactly two plays from being 10-1, and people are starting threads about whether McDermott needs to go SMH.

28 minutes ago, dorquemada said:

 

yeah take our bad luck lumps now, get some lucky bounces later

 

or, yeah man, we're cursed

Well, regression to the mean is actually a thing.  We were incredibly lucky in 2020 and 2021 in terms of injuries, to the point that people were crediting our practice facilities and staff as some kind of secret sauce.  While our facilities and training staff may be outstanding, we're learning now that they can't prevent on-field injuries.  Sometimes things like this just happen.

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4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This is pretty crazy...Bills are 2nd worst only to CAR in terms of "unluckiest" teams. 

 

This covers opponent dropped INT's, opponent dropped passes, opponent FG/XP attempts and fumble recoveries(both teams).  

 

Bills are BY FAR the worst at "fumble luck". 

Bills are 3rd worst in terms of FG/XP attempts

Bills tied for 5th worst in terms of opponent dropped passes(ie, opponents have fewer drops vs. us than they do against other teams)

 

The only thing they are "good" with is dropped INTs by opponents, although that is basically neutral at +.01 ,ranking 12th.

 

This all adds up to a total of -1.65 added net win probability due to "luck", second worst only to the Panthers at -1.68.

 

 

 

I'm F'ing Irish. I nearly died 4x due to cancer (Which had ZERO familial history). I've literally never won a single bet I've placed...

 

These are #FACTS 

 

When people tell me I wear a tinfoil hat, I show them my scars.

 

Thankful to see some math behind the inanity... I know what I've lived through...

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44 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

 

I'm F'ing Irish. I nearly died 4x due to cancer (Which had ZERO familial history). I've literally never won a single bet I've placed...

 

These are #FACTS 

 

When people tell me I wear a tinfoil hat, I show them my scars.

 

Thankful to see some math behind the inanity... I know what I've lived through...

 

You & me both, brother. I got a cancer called chordoma so rare only 300 people get it in the US a year. Not genetic. Just unlucky. I have wicked, nasty scars on my ass you wouldn't believe. Unlucky. My ass modeling career is over. I got side effects from radiation that only 4% of people who get my kind of radiation get. Unlucky.

 

I never win anything in games of chance or luck. I run a fantasy football league (which as we all know is more luck than skill) and it took me 19 years to win it. Unlucky. 

 

I bring bad weather on most trips I take. I've been to the Grand Canyon but have never seen it. Freak snow storm - whiteout - couldn't see the canyon despite standing on the edge of it.

 

Went to Cabo San Lucas and rode ATVs. It rained. I asked the guide how often it rains. He said 3 or 4 times a year. Golf trips - RAIN. Golf trip in Orlando, Fla - Frost delays and cold. Yeah, I'm the king of bad luck.

 

Bad luck is a thing. 

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8 minutes ago, todd said:

 

You & me both, brother. I got a cancer called chordoma so rare only 300 people get it in the US a year. Not genetic. Just unlucky. I have wicked, nasty scars on my ass you wouldn't believe. Unlucky. My ass modeling career is over. I got side effects from radiation that only 4% of people who get my kind of radiation get. Unlucky.

 

I never win anything in games of chance or luck. I run a fantasy football league (which as we all know is more luck than skill) and it took me 19 years to win it. Unlucky. 

 

I bring bad weather on most trips I take. I've been to the Grand Canyon but have never seen it. Freak snow storm - whiteout - couldn't see the canyon despite standing on the edge of it.

 

Went to Cabo San Lucas and rode ATVs. It rained. I asked the guide how often it rains. He said 3 or 4 times a year. Golf trips - RAIN. Golf trip in Orlando, Fla - Frost delays and cold. Yeah, I'm the king of bad luck.

 

Bad luck is a thing. 

Let's "Proclaim" to be Dolphin fans... Maybe we can sink their boat.

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36 minutes ago, ROCBillsBeliever said:

Let's "Proclaim" to be Dolphin fans... Maybe we can sink their boat.

I want in with you guys.  Very rare cancer as a kid and still dealing with the side and late term effects of chemo and radiation.  I too have never won in a game of chance - which at least kept me from developing a gambling habit.  Had a dream backpacking trip planned to Glacier a year in advance and the day before my backcountry reservation my car broke down in Billings, Montana. Had to stay in a KOA for a week instead while the mechanic waited for parts.  My wife left me for a woman, but other than that I can't remember another instance of "good luck" during my 40+ years on Earth.

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1 hour ago, todd said:

Try to say "fumble luck" five times fast. I can't. At least not in mixed company.

 

I tried to say it once and ended up with a Steve Miller Band earworm that's driving me mad and making me crazy.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

They’ve been pretty fortunate the last couple seasons and failed to capitalize on it. They may have their best roster of the 3 years now, but are not having the good fortune. A lot of things have to go right to have a chance at a Super Bowl and the Bills have an uphill climb ahead. 


Ya but replace Bills with any other non-bottom-dweller team and that is still true. They have been fortunate the last couple years with injuries.

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