Extend Po Now - Protect the Culture

[Breakout Squad]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Poyer extension coming soon 

[machine gun kelly]

I doubt it.  As these contracts lately have gone out of control.  Unless he’s willing to take a two year extension at a reasonable rate like $11 mil. Per, and I doubt he will take that deal, they’ll let him test the market next season.  With the development of our two backup safeties, the plan is probably a succession plan McBeane have made.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I doubt it.  As these contracts lately have gone out of control.  Unless he’s willing to take a two year extension at a reasonable rate like $11 mil. Per, and I doubt he will take that deal, they’ll let him test the market next season.  With the development of our two backup safeties, the plan is probably a succession plan McBeane have made.

People keep talking about their faith in our developed backup safeties. I’m not sure why though as none of them have really the field. Last season Poyer and Hyde each played over 1,100 snaps, nearly 100% of the meaningful ones during the course of the season. Jaquan Johnson was third at 146. Hamlin and Lewis had 131 combined. Anyone have a better reason than blind faith?  And please do better than preseason games. 

[ganesh]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

People keep talking about their faith in our developed backup safeties. I’m not sure why though as none of them have really the field. Last season Poyer and Hyde each played over 1,100 snaps, nearly 100% of the meaningful ones during the course of the season. Jaquan Johnson was third at 146. Hamlin and Lewis had 131 combined. Anyone have a better reason than blind faith?  And please do better than preseason games. 

May be their play in Training Camp as you already have excluded the other alternatives.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

May be their play in Training Camp as you already have excluded the other alternatives.

I can see McD and Beane making a decision based on that, but not posters here. Also I’m doing them a favor by not including their preseason performances. This preseason all of them gave up passer ratings over 105 when the ball was thrown to their coverage responsibility.  Vanilla coverage, etc. applies, but it’s still not a plus. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by BarleyNY

[BigBuff423]

I don't think Beane et. al. are in the business of providing extensions with significant money attached simply to boost morale. They are didactic in their process to build and maintain culture, but not at the expense of the Cap hell Beane had to live with and pull out of the second year he was the GM. I believe they value their players, and you can see that in all of the contracts given to their Drafted players, but they limit the amount of restrictions they place on themselves so they can continue to be nimble enough to respond to unforeseen circumstances, to the best of their ability. JMO...

[TheyCallMeAndy]

12 hours ago, Breakout Squad said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Poyer extension coming soon 

I honestly would, the number of high profile safeties who drop off after 30 is an astounding number. At 32, with a young promising player behind him, extending Poyer (who I love) doesn’t make a ton of sense.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I guess, for me, it all comes down to Edmunds.

 

If 49 is looking like a stud, then you lock him up which likely means there isn’t enough bread on the table to give Poyer what he wants, since Ed Oliver also comes before him. 

 

If 49 looks average and you know he’ll test the FA market, you extend Poyer if you think you’ll lose Edmunds. 

[The Jokeman]

12 hours ago, Breakout Squad said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Poyer extension coming soon 

I would as Beane is very saavy about the cap and I can't see him giving Poyer another big contract given his age etc. Unless he can get him on a Darryl Williams type deal that can easily be cut. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

I doubt it.  As these contracts lately have gone out of control.  Unless he’s willing to take a two year extension at a reasonable rate like $11 mil. Per, and I doubt he will take that deal, they’ll let him test the market next season.  With the development of our two backup safeties, the plan is probably a succession plan McBeane have made.

 

Agree  The title of the thread was Protect the Culture" As long as the Bills have made Poyer an extension offer, can't blame them and I'd imagine even Poyer himself understands that, it's a business.  Currently the Bills are kind of bidding against themselves with any offers made.  After the season ends, they could then still make him an offer based on his level of play in 2022 and also based on what they've seen of backups in practice.  He could test free agency and find out the offers that he wanted aren't up there from others too and still sign a contract to the Bills liking.

 

Who knows too, maybe Beane and McD have already identified a 2023 pending FA that is a younger Poyer clone and plan to try to sign him.  It's kind of a similar situation top this past off season with H Phillips. Everyone was waiting to see the Bills and he agree on a new contact. Once free agency started people here got nervous, .... until Beane signed a potential stronger/better replacement.    

 

 

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

People keep talking about their faith in our developed backup safeties. I’m not sure why though as none of them have really the field. Last season Poyer and Hyde each played over 1,100 snaps, nearly 100% of the meaningful ones during the course of the season. Jaquan Johnson was third at 146. Hamlin and Lewis had 131 combined. Anyone have a better reason than blind faith?  And please do better than preseason games. 

 

So what's the alternative, keep Poyer around till he's 50?  At some point, need to move on and it also as I mentioned above mean one of the backups will definitely become the next starter. As has been mentioned elsewhere, Bills CB's right now are big question without White, but they get away with it because of superior safety play. By next year White shouldbe back to 100% assuming no set backs and Elam a 1st rounder has a year under his belt and even Jackson has gained more needed experience. Maybe the secondary strength shifts from S to CB?

 

On the other hand last year they benched Feliciiano in place of a guy who'd hardly played much Bates and it was a big improvement.  Understand too it was different in that Feliciano was not looking good, where as Poyer has.  But at some point need to bite bullet, can't keep paying for a contract that not worth it once players abilities start to decline.  

[In Summary]

3 hours ago, BigBuff423 said:

I don't think Beane et. al. are in the business of providing extensions with significant money attached simply to boost morale. They are didactic in their process to build and maintain culture, but not at the expense of the Cap hell Beane had to live with and pull out of the second year he was the GM. I believe they value their players, and you can see that in all of the contracts given to their Drafted players, but they limit the amount of restrictions they place on themselves so they can continue to be nimble enough to respond to unforeseen circumstances, to the best of their ability. JMO...

I'd say Poyer was saved by the culture more than he defined it.  Additionally, his wife has argued salary on social media (something that indirectly reflects on Jordan).  Poyer gets paid for his excellent play and less so because he's a Lorenzo Alexander or Kyle Williams. 

 

Still my favorite defensive player until I see someone overtake him.  Probably the biggest hitter on D lb for lb.  

 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

So what's the alternative, keep Poyer around till he's 50?  At some point, need to move on and it also as I mentioned above mean one of the backups will definitely become the next starter. As has been mentioned elsewhere, Bills CB's right now are big question without White, but they get away with it because of superior safety play. By next year White shouldbe back to 100% assuming no set backs and Elam a 1st rounder has a year under his belt and even Jackson has gained more needed experience. Maybe the secondary strength shifts from S to CB?

 

On the other hand last year they benched Feliciiano in place of a guy who'd hardly played much Bates and it was a big improvement.  Understand too it was different in that Feliciano was not looking good, where as Poyer has.  But at some point need to bite bullet, can't keep paying for a contract that not worth it once players abilities start to decline.  

He’s 31 and there has been no decline at all in his play. Quite the contrary. He’s playing the best football of his life. A 4 year extension would put Poyer under contract for 5 seasons.  Guarantees could be kept to 2 seasons worth of salary. That would give him some security while keeping a First Team All Pro in our secondary through his elite seasons. He’d be here at least until age 32 with the option to keep him around through age 35 if he held up physically. Or we could get out as early as after next season if he doesn’t.

 

There is always the possibility that one side in this negotiation is being unreasonable. But I wouldn’t pin that on either until we hear some actual facts.

 

As for a successor, there was not a depth safety that the Bills deemed worthy of taking snaps away from Hyde or Poyer last season. If they intend to move on from Poyer after this season and they think they have the right guy on the team, then I’d expect to see that player get some meaningful snaps this season.

Edited September 8, 2022 by BarleyNY

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

People keep talking about their faith in our developed backup safeties. I’m not sure why though as none of them have really the field. Last season Poyer and Hyde each played over 1,100 snaps, nearly 100% of the meaningful ones during the course of the season. Jaquan Johnson was third at 146. Hamlin and Lewis had 131 combined. Anyone have a better reason than blind faith?  And please do better than preseason games. 

 

Jaquan Johnson started and played 100% of the snaps vs. Houston last season, playing for Poyer.  He played well, including a PD and a pick, but Houston was not exactly a powerhouse last season.   He also saw ~10-18% of the snaps at safety in 4 other games, and 7% in 2 more.   

 

While that doesn't take away from Poyer as a keystone of the Bills D, presenting it as "nearly 100%" is a bit dismissive of the snaps Johnson did take, which were not just "put in the reserves" end of game snaps. (And nit, I think your defensive snap count for Poyer and for Hyde is off for last season).

 

I personally have doubts about Johnson as "Poyer in waiting", having watched clips of Knox literally knocking him on his ass off the LOS in camp, although TBH when Poyer has gone out I haven't noticed during a game (which is a Good Thing).

 

But coaches typically play the guy they think is the proven best player until he's gone; it would be highly unusual for the Bills to audition Johnson in a real game over a healthy Poyer, that doesn't mean they lack faith in Johnson either. 

 

I mean in general - can you cite examples of a situation where a team replaced a starter successfully with a depth player the following season, where they sat an incumbant starter to "audition" their depth?

 

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

He’s 31 and there has been no decline at all in his play. Quite the contrary. He’s playing the best football of his life. A 4 year extension would put Poyer under contract for 5 seasons.  Guarantees could be kept to 2 seasons worth of salary

 

You're making some assumptions that Rosenhaus would be willing to accept an effective 2 yr contract with a signing bonus split across 4.  The Bills are going to have to make some hard choices under their salary cap next season.

 

I agree that Poyer was playing the best football of his career last season, but it's simply not clear that the contract the Bills feel able to offer and the contract Rosenhaus wants at this point have enough overlap to negotiate.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Beck Water

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

He’s 31 and there has been no decline at all in his play. Quite the contrary. He’s playing the best football of his life. A 4 year extension would put Poyer under contract for 5 seasons.  Guarantees could be kept to 2 seasons worth of salary. That would give him some security while keeping a First Team All Pro in our secondary through his elite seasons. He’d be here at least until age 32 with the option to keep him around through age 35 if he held up physically. Or we could get out as early as after next season if he doesn’t.

 

There is always the possibility that one side in this negotiation is being unreasonable. But I wouldn’t pin that on either until we hear some actual facts.

 

As for a successor, there was not a depth safety that the Bills deemed worthy of taking snaps away from Hyde or Poyer last season. If they intend to move on from Poyer after this season and they think they have the right guy on the team, then I’d expect to see that player get some meaningful snaps this season.

 

Everything you mention for the contract sounds fine, but who knows if either side is OK with that.  Seems the Bills have historically offered reasonable contracts to players.  Makes me wonder if it's not that Poyer is looking for that one last big pay check.   Safeties typically play all game so hard to see the Bills backups playing as long as Hyde and Poyer are healthy.  Like I stated above could be the guy they are thinking about isn't on the current roster too.

[JohninMinn.]

From a business standpoint age causes injuries. We have talent that makes a transition seemless.

[Buffalo716]

8 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

People keep talking about their faith in our developed backup safeties. I’m not sure why though as none of them have really the field. Last season Poyer and Hyde each played over 1,100 snaps, nearly 100% of the meaningful ones during the course of the season. Jaquan Johnson was third at 146. Hamlin and Lewis had 131 combined. Anyone have a better reason than blind faith?  And please do better than preseason games. 

We had half this board going Gaga for a udfa running back because pre season games 

 

and tons of people already convinced benford is better than Elam because pre season games 

 

our coach is a defensive backs whisperer , especially safety which he played … safety is a position which sometimes takes a while to fully learn … ex poyer

 

and we have 2 young veterans who know the scheme fully and have redeeming qualities… Johnson is going to be a good safety in the league 

 

that’s why people believe in the backups at safety 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Buffalo716

[716er]

I have a hunch Poyer’s successor is on the roster, but not a backup safety.

 

Taron Johnson.

 

[CorkScrewHill]

12 minutes ago, 716er said:

I have a hunch Poyer’s successor is on the roster, but not a backup safety.

 

Taron Johnson.

 

I would think they would not want to mess with one of the best nickel corners in the league and move him to a spot he has never played.

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

He’s 31 and there has been no decline at all in his play. Quite the contrary. He’s playing the best football of his life. A 4 year extension would put Poyer under contract for 5 seasons.  Guarantees could be kept to 2 seasons worth of salary. That would give him some security while keeping a First Team All Pro in our secondary through his elite seasons. He’d be here at least until age 32 with the option to keep him around through age 35 if he held up physically. Or we could get out as early as after next season if he doesn’t.

 

There is always the possibility that one side in this negotiation is being unreasonable. But I wouldn’t pin that on either until we hear some actual facts.

 

As for a successor, there was not a depth safety that the Bills deemed worthy of taking snaps away from Hyde or Poyer last season. If they intend to move on from Poyer after this season and they think they have the right guy on the team, then I’d expect to see that player get some meaningful snaps this season.

 

He will anyway, under his current cotract.

[716er]

5 minutes ago, CorkScrewHill said:

I would think they would not want to mess with one of the best nickel corners in the league and move him to a spot he has never played.

Indeed this is the flip side.

 

Although I have thought of 3 points for this to potentially happen

 

1. In a zone nickel scheme in which the Bills play the nickel CB is learning the same concepts as the he safeties and often times playing those as well based on the offensive formation

 

2. The best slot corners in the league tend to fade much quicker than the best outside CBs 

 

3. Micah Hyde made the transition and would be valuable in helping Taron do so as well

 

He also hits like a ton of bricks. Not saying it should happen, but OBD should consider it.

Edited September 8, 2022 by 716er

[mjd1001]

6 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I guess, for me, it all comes down to Edmunds.

 

If 49 is looking like a stud, then you lock him up which likely means there isn’t enough bread on the table to give Poyer what he wants, since Ed Oliver also comes before him. 

 

If 49 looks average and you know he’ll test the FA market, you extend Poyer if you think you’ll lose Edmunds. 

I'm all for letting either go if they want a lot more money that what you can value them at.  The offense is what will take this team into/deep into the playoffs or to the Superbowl.  Ensure an elite offense (including a 'good' O-line to keep Allen from taking to many hits) and do the best you can with the D-unit with what is left over.

[machine gun kelly]

10 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I can see McD and Beane making a decision based on that, but not posters here. Also I’m doing them a favor by not including their preseason performances. This preseason all of them gave up passer ratings over 105 when the ball was thrown to their coverage responsibility.  Vanilla coverage, etc. applies, but it’s still not a plus. 

Barley, that’s all posters everywhere.  We don’t know what the coaches see in camp.  I don’t think people are saying, “well they did well in preseason, then they will do well in the season”.  I’m not.  I’m saying this staff has a history of developing people over a few years.  You could’ve said the same thing about, Dane, Bates, Boettger, etc.  because we don’t know.  What I trust though is this staff and what they did show was solid.

 

You know I’m not normally against you, but we as a crew only know what we see, read, and watch.  That’s why we’re called fans.  You’re absolutely right though Amy of these safeties can fall on their face.  You can’t replace Hyde and Poyer and not thing there is some drop off, but you also for Beane have to make wise long term financial decisions.  Poyer will be 32 at the end of the year.

 

What would you do, but if you’re giving Poyer $16-18 mil, who are you cutting?

 

I think that’s what some have resolved to in that the cap is real and they can only play so much gymnastics.  I’d rather extend a DT who could be excellent as he’s developed every year.  He also could be with us for another 6-7 years.  As much as I love Poyer, that’s not happening.  Just like I seriously doubt that Von Miller is really a 3 year contract, and then we’ll see.

[BarleyNY]

16 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Barley, that’s all posters everywhere.  We don’t know what the coaches see in camp.  I don’t think people are saying, “well they did well in preseason, then they will do well in the season”.  I’m not.  I’m saying this staff has a history of developing people over a few years.  You could’ve said the same thing about, Dane, Bates, Boettger, etc.  because we don’t know.  What I trust though is this staff and what they did show was solid.

 

You know I’m not normally against you, but we as a crew only know what we see, read, and watch.  That’s why we’re called fans.  You’re absolutely right though Amy of these safeties can fall on their face.  You can’t replace Hyde and Poyer and not thing there is some drop off, but you also for Beane have to make wise long term financial decisions.  Poyer will be 32 at the end of the year.

 

What would you do, but if you’re giving Poyer $16-18 mil, who are you cutting?

 

I think that’s what some have resolved to in that the cap is real and they can only play so much gymnastics.  I’d rather extend a DT who could be excellent as he’s developed every year.  He also could be with us for another 6-7 years.  As much as I love Poyer, that’s not happening.  Just like I seriously doubt that Von Miller is really a 3 year contract, and then we’ll see.

That’s a fair response. I wouldn’t give Poyer a contract that was effectively more than a 3 year deal (including this year). And I wouldn’t go near the $16M-$18M AAV range in those first 3 years. If that’s the range Poyer expects, then I’d change my stance. I’d make him play out his deal and then let him walk.

 

Something reasonable to me would be to give him an extension at market rate along with guarantees. Something like an extra $30M between a signing bonus and salaries in 2022-2024. If he wants to try to get more than that in FA after this season, then good luck to him. It’s worth noting that Rosenhaus has given some players bad advice about the contract they can get. Maybe that’s happening here. 

 

I don’t think that a deal like that would prohibit the Bills from extending Oliver and Davis (eventually). I’m not an Edmunds fan so I would prefer not to re-sign him. I think Poyer has earned it and they should make a reasonable effort to extend him.