Let's create TSW Bills draft big board - Final Conclusion: Kaiir Elam was the 5th option in TSW eyes when the Bills were picking.

[No_Matter_What]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

@No_Matter_What - Lloyd has 20

Done.

 

Just curious - is there any chance that Linderbaum can (temporarily) play guard?

[Motor26]

51 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If Dawkins is sliding anywhere it would be to RT if they got a true stalwart LT 

 

They aren't moving their LT they just paid to Guard... Besides you don't move a top 10 LT to guard

 

 

While I agree I don’t think they would move Dawkins from LT to guard, I think people are using that line of thought since they couldn’t move Brown inside to guard. I mean I guess they could, I’ve never seen a 6-7 guard, but that would be a massive oline. Josh wouldn’t  have much trouble throwing over them either since he is 6-5 at least.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Hermes said:

I really like the idea of sliding Dawkins over to LG and having Penning start on the left side. You then have a solid battle at RG with Saffold and Bates. So long as Brown gets better, that line is much improved from last season. Then every year add high ceiling prospects to fill out depth and push starters

Unfortunately, there’s very little to no chance (imo) of this coming to fruition.  Penning lasting til 25 is super unlikely 

[Hermes]

1 hour ago, Motor26 said:

While I agree I don’t think they would move Dawkins from LT to guard, I think people are using that line of thought since they couldn’t move Brown inside to guard. I mean I guess they could, I’ve never seen a 6-7 guard, but that would be a massive oline. Josh wouldn’t  have much trouble throwing over them either since he is 6-5 at least.

 

2 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

If Dawkins is sliding anywhere it would be to RT if they got a true stalwart LT 

 

They aren't moving their LT they just paid to Guard... Besides you don't move a top 10 LT to guard

 

 

What they just paid him is irrelevant if it makes the team better. Dawkins slides inside and finishes his career as the Bills franchise LG. His student Penning learns the ropes from a solid vet and develops into a better LT than Dawkins could ever be. Nothing against him either. To paraphrase Dawkins here, they're looking to make that mac n cheese just right. I think it would help Spencer Brown's development too having his old teammate to add to the chemistry. Morse in turn gets better guard play of both sides and has a late career surge and plays out his final downs as a Bill.

Edited April 17, 2022 by Hermes
*their, they're

[JaCrispy]

Gotta say, I’m liking the big board so far...Overall, Bills fans seem to be pretty rational about value...👍

[Buffalo716]

57 minutes ago, Hermes said:

 

What they just paid him is irrelevant if it makes the team better. Dawkins slides inside and finishes his career as the Bills franchise LG. His student Penning learns the ropes from a solid vet and develops into a better LT than Dawkins could ever be. Nothing against him either. To paraphrase Dawkins here, they're looking to make that mac n cheese just right. I think it would help Spencer Brown's development too having his old teammate to add to the chemistry. Morse in turn gets better guard play of both sides and has a late career surge and plays out his final downs as a Bill.

Spencer Brown would be relegated to swing tackle before they would move Dawkins to guard 

 

They're not moving their left tackle who just pro bowled to guard 

 

If they want to improve the guard play they'll just draft a guard

Edited April 17, 2022 by Buffalo716

[NastyNateSoldiers]

15 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Interesting. I didn't include him so far since he is lower on "consensus" boards and I don't remember him being discussed on TSW in relation to our first round pick at all.

 

Once next player is is chosen I will try to expand list and may include him.

Jalen Pitre is an absolute stud reminds me of Earl Thomas or Honey Badger I realize he hasn’t been spoken about much on this board or even in general on other draft sites but watch the film he’s got instincts, physicality a nose for the ball seems to never be out of position the kid plays fast and hits like a bag of bricks . I won’t mind him being the pick at #25 or if we trade back a little and grab him in the 2nd rd.

[Hermes]

48 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Spencer Brown would be relegated to swing tackle before they would move Dawkins to guard 

 

They're not moving their left tackle who just pro bowled to guard 

 

If they want to improve the guard play they'll just draft a guard

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-scouting-report-dion-dawkins-g-temple

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dion-dawkins/32004441-5705-6236-cf99-fd4dcf52774c

 

Maybe they already did?

[intimidatortj]

9 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

What's wrong with Burks? I think there are better options right now but I for one am surprised that he gets so few votes. But I do think that at the end of the day he will be voted to the board (if we get that far) sooner than some guys who have more votes now.

 

Anyway, really interesting how the votes are spread. Yesterday we added two players to the board, hopefully we can make the same today. But there are lots of votes spread around.

 

Thanks everyone, keep them votes coming!

IMO, and I have never seen him play in person, Burks has some that...I am not sure about his play.   I think Williams, Garrett, Olave, and London are ahead of him.

 

On the other hand, he could be the next AJ Brown.  

On 4/16/2022 at 12:46 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

Maybe. I think you work that out later. If he is there you pick him you don't worry about who lines up where. Long term I think he is your left tackle and Dion slides inside to left guard. But maybe you do that after 2022 when Saffold moves on.

I had never thought of moving Dawkins to LG.   Hmmm.    Interesting.

 

It would be tough to pass up on Trevor Conrad Dobler Penning.   Although I doubt he could play left tackle at the NFL level right away.  He needs some of his rough edges coached out of him.  But he sure looks promising.

[Buffalo716]

39 minutes ago, Hermes said:

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-pff-scouting-report-dion-dawkins-g-temple

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/dion-dawkins/32004441-5705-6236-cf99-fd4dcf52774c

 

Maybe they already did?

Those are scouting reports from years and years ago.. he just pro bowled at left tackle... Kiper also called him the best tackle in the class

 

He's a tackle who can play guard, not a guard who can play tackle

 

They're not flipping him to guard .. anything they're getting another right tackle to battle brown

 

Edited April 18, 2022 by Buffalo716

[Hermes]

43 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Those are scouting reports from years and years ago.. he just pro bowled at left tackle... Kiper also called him the best tackle in the class

 

He's a tackle who can play guard, not a guard who can play tackle

 

They're not flipping him to guard .. anything they're getting another right tackle to battle brown

 

I personally think he would excel as a guard and probowl =/= all pro. He's a definitely a good player and a leader on the team. He can still be both of those things as a guard. It seems like the transition from tackle to guard isn't a hugely prohibitive factor. I.e. tackles can be guards, but guards can't be tackles, so to speak. Also if they draft him he could be the swing tackle and learn the ropes while Dion holds down the fort at LT until he's ready to take the reins

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, intimidatortj said:

 

I had never thought of moving Dawkins to LG.   Hmmm.    Interesting.

 

It would be tough to pass up on Trevor Conrad Dobler Penning.   Although I doubt he could play left tackle at the NFL level right away.  He needs some of his rough edges coached out of him.  But he sure looks promising.

 

Yea I don't think I'd do it day 1. I'd find another way to get them on the field. But I have always believed Dion Dawkins is a good left tackle but would have been a perennial all pro type left guard. He has been superb for the Bills at tackle but if he is struggling as he gets older to manage his weight then he will get away with that more inside. Let Penning learn the NFL for a year at guard or right tackle as a rookie and then switch it up. 

[No_Matter_What]

Good morning and happy Easter Monday everyone.

 

We have added 3 players to the board yesterday, hopefully we will keep the pace today!

[No_Matter_What]

Kyler Gordon selected.

[NewEra]

Can’t believe there are so many votes for Jordan Davis with some of the names on the board still available.  👎🏻 

[glazeduck]

Though this is kind of a fun exercise, there's certainly some vote splitting going on here... Drake London may end up being a top 10 overall pick, and somehow he's on the outside looking in for what would ultimately be our "top 20"...

 

I know ordering by position can also be messy and isn't as much fun as players, but if we're looking at WR in the first, I have to imagine a guy like London -- even if he's not the #1 or 2 WR on our board, probably would absolutely be the priority over a guy like McDuffie or Gordon.

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Though this is kind of a fun exercise, there's certainly some vote splitting going on here... Drake London may end up being a top 10 overall pick, and somehow he's on the outside looking in for what would ultimately be our "top 20"...

 

I know ordering by position can also be messy and isn't as much fun as players, but if we're looking at WR in the first, I have to imagine a guy like London -- even if he's not the #1 or 2 WR on our board, probably would absolutely be the priority over a guy like McDuffie or Gordon.

Agreed. If we took Jordan Davis with London on the board…. 

i voted for Burks over london due to him being a RAC beast

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, glazeduck said:

Though this is kind of a fun exercise, there's certainly some vote splitting going on here... Drake London may end up being a top 10 overall pick, and somehow he's on the outside looking in for what would ultimately be our "top 20"...

 

I know ordering by position can also be messy and isn't as much fun as players, but if we're looking at WR in the first, I have to imagine a guy like London -- even if he's not the #1 or 2 WR on our board, probably would absolutely be the priority over a guy like McDuffie or Gordon.

 

I am not sure the Bills would fancy either London or McDuffie in round 1. They just don't fit their profile at the positions as I see it. Both are fine players. Not sure I expect either to end up a Bill even if they are on the board at #25. 

[glazeduck]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sure the Bills would fancy either London or McDuffie in round 1. They just don't fit their profile at the positions as I see it. Both are fine players. Not sure I expect either to end up a Bill even if they are on the board at #25. 

Agree with you there, my point was more that when there's 5 or 6 wrs to be voted on (vs., say, 2 cbs) , everyone is going to have their favorites when it's not the actual Bills making the decisions... So if "WR" got 35 votes spread out over 4 or 5 guys in this exercise, vs. say Gordon and McDuffie splitting, say 25, in the real world, you would hope/think that the Bills would be taking WR (such that the right one is there/makes sense) over the CB.

 

It's never as easy as "swap 'player X' in with 'player y', if X goes first" but the splitting of votes feels worth noting...

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, glazeduck said:

Agree with you there, my point was more that when there's 5 or 6 wrs to be voted on (vs., say, 2 cbs) , everyone is going to have their favorites when it's not the actual Bills making the decisions... So if "WR" got 35 votes spread out over 4 or 5 guys in this exercise, vs. say Gordon and McDuffie splitting, say 25, in the real world, you would hope/think that the Bills would be taking WR (such that the right one is there/makes sense) over the CB.

 

It's never as easy as "swap 'player X' in with 'player y', if X goes first" but the splitting of votes feels worth noting...

In general, I agree with you, there is always going to be some votes splitting in this kind of exercise. But I thought about it a lot and imo what we are doing here is the most objective way how to create the board (within some reasonable time). I really think that votes splitting factor is very limited.

 

Williams, Wilson and Booth were clear choices. When Booth was selected, there were 7 votes for WRs (London 3+Olave 4) and 10 votes for other CBs (McD 8 + Elam 2). When McDuffie was selected with 20 votes, there were 26 CB votes (Elam 4, Gordon 2) and 23 WR votes (17 Olave, 3 London, 2 Watson, 1 Burks). So maybe in heads up Olave would beat McDuffie (in TSW vote), but otherwise it was not a matter of vote splitting - McDuffie and Olave were clearly above the rest.

 

I think you are mostly underestimating how relatively lukewarm Bills fans on this board are towards London. If there was any major interest, he would've been chosen by now. London is 12th on consensus big board I just created for myself (ESPN, PFF, Tankathon, PFN) and Elam is 32nd (!). Elam has no business having same number of votes no matter how many more WRs are available. Same with Zion Johnson, who is 28th on consensus board. Most of people on this board think that you don't draft OG in the first, yet Johnson has as many votes as London and Burks combined. If London was viewed as top WR, he would've gone shortly after Williams, Wilson and Olave. They had no problem getting votes.

 

Also, I think there are lot of people like @GunnerBill. He voted for Watson, but I don't think his mentality at this stage is "WR" - he is not choosing London if Watson wasn't available.

Edited April 18, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Though this is kind of a fun exercise, there's certainly some vote splitting going on here... Drake London may end up being a top 10 overall pick, and somehow he's on the outside looking in for what would ultimately be our "top 20"...

 

I know ordering by position can also be messy and isn't as much fun as players, but if we're looking at WR in the first, I have to imagine a guy like London -- even if he's not the #1 or 2 WR on our board, probably would absolutely be the priority over a guy like McDuffie or Gordon.

 

So to sum it up, based on voting in this thread I don't think that in heads up voting London beats McDuffie (90%+ certainty) or Gordon (60%).

Edited April 18, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[No_Matter_What]

Ok I am going to leave voting open until 3am ET to see if somebody reaches those 20 votes. Unless they will be major changes in voting advocating otherwise, I will then put top players with 20 votes or close to it on the board and restart voting. 

 

I will create new poll where I add 11 new players and probably lower the threshold to 15 votes (since there will be many players to spread out votes). As explained in OP, I can't add new players to existing poll unfortunately.

Edited April 18, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[RyanC883]

Its Davis time at this point

[Locomark]

I know Christian Watson has become somewhat of a fashionable pick but do people know he had one of the highest drop rates out there?(28% in 2020 and 10% in 2021)  No thanks. Too many other guys with talent to pick a high round pick with the dropsies. 

Edited April 19, 2022 by Locomark

[Big Turk]

Hooooolllly Mount Zion....

Holy Mount Zion...

 

Jah sitteth in Mount Zion...

And rules all creation...

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Locomark said:

I know Christian Watson has become somewhat of a fashionable pick but do people know he had one of the highest drop rates out there?(28% in 2020 and 10% in 2021)  No thanks. Too many other guys with talent to pick a high round pick with the dropsies. 

 

Yes. He also had the highest degree of difficulty catch rate in the guys at the top end of the class. So while he had too many drops, for sure, the drops weren't offset in % terms by cheap easy catches in and around the line of scrimmage. He wasn't used that way at all in the NDSU offense. And his hands definitely improved in 2021. Basically I think it is a concern but not as big of one as people are making it. 

[Locomark]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. He also had the highest degree of difficulty catch rate in the guys at the top end of the class. So while he had too many drops, for sure, the drops weren't offset in % terms by cheap easy catches in and around the line of scrimmage. He wasn't used that way at all in the NDSU offense. And his hands definitely improved in 2021. Basically I think it is a concern but not as big of one as people are making it. 

I bet he doesn’t get drafted until round 3 or later. No way he goes in round 1. What happens when the speed is faster and the balls are coming that much faster. At that level you need to catch everything that touches you. He was also playing against much poorer competition than the other guys you compare him too. No one outside of random Bills fans are talking about this guy up as a first rounder. See the Zierlein review of him on nfl.com I think it is very fair. He will become an average NFL WR in a few years. Certainly not worthy of a high pick.  

Edited April 19, 2022 by Locomark

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, Locomark said:

I bet he doesn’t get drafted until round 3 or later. No way he goes in round 1. What happens when the speed is faster and the balls are coming that much faster. At that level you need to catch everything that touches you. He was also playing against much poorer competition than the other guys you compare him too. No one outside of random Bills fans are talking about this guy up as a first rounder. See the Zierlein review of him on nfl.com I think it is very fair. He will become an average NFL WR in a few years. Certainly not worthy of a high pick.  

 

He is going inside the top 45 picks. 

[No_Matter_What]

Good morning. I put Jordan Davis (19 votes) and Drake London (16 votes) on the board. Since we have already chosen 12 players, I thought it was time to add new. However, since you can have only 20 options in one poll question, I had to completely restart the poll with a new question. I also lowered number of required votes to 15.

 

Players on poll are coming from consensus big board created by me (ESPN, PFF, Tankathon, PFN, Athletic) and include all best remaining slightly favored towards our needs plus adjusted based on discussions on these forums.

 

If you think someone really important was omitted please let me know and I might replace him. Please also suggest who should be replaced. I think there are too much DEs for our taste but not sure who should I skip. Also, I don't think Wyatt has any chance to be on the Bills board due to off-field issues but I decided to let people decide if he is worth.

 

[DJB]

Johan Dotson over Burks is a farce

[T master]

None of them unless these 2 guys weren't on the board Quay Walker or George Picket are my picks for the Bills .

[No_Matter_What]

29 minutes ago, T master said:

None of them unless these 2 guys weren't on the board Quay Walker or George Picket are my picks for the Bills .

I was strongly considering both of them. Problem with both is that they are a little lower on "consensus" board, and Pickens in addition is also 5th WR (and I wanted to avoid splitting of WR votes).

 

But as I said I am ready to include them (or other preffered players) later today instead of some DE or S with zero votes. I'll let you know.

Edited April 19, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[GunnerBill]

The highest player on my board among those is Ojabo. I get there is an injury question mark but in the absence of medical reports suggesting he won't recover he would be next guy here. 

[No_Matter_What]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The highest player on my board among those is Ojabo. I get there is an injury question mark but in the absence of medical reports suggesting he won't recover he would be next guy here. 

What do you think about other three rushers? Is any of them really bad fit for the Bills?

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

What do you think about other three rushers? Is any of them really bad fit for the Bills?

 

Karlaftis reminds me of what we thought we were drafting in Epenesa. But then we told Epenesa to totally change his body and his game, so I'm not sure how natural a fit he is. 

 

Boye Mafe and Arnold Ebikete are boom or bust prospects, but they are something we lack among the young guys - pure speed rushers. So I could see that there is at least a conceptual need (even if defensive end is a relatively well stocked position) I prefer Mafe of the two.

[No_Matter_What]

Btw this vote is very close to the worst case scenario for the Bills if we stay put.

 

He have chosen 12 players + 10 top ranked + maybe 2 QBs taken = 24 total, so if everything goes as bad as possible these are the choices we might face.

 

Couple weeks ago it seemed realistic that Karlaftis or Wyatt might be gone and push some other players to us, but Wyatt might be off some boards due to off-field issues and Karlaftis seems to fall down the boards a lot.

 

On the other hand, we can be sure that there will be some random picks ahead of us, there are always some - like Leatherwood, Davis, Ettiene or Turner last year. And there is still a chance that more than 2 QBs go before our pick.

[GreggTX]

Kyler Gordon

[No_Matter_What]

25 minutes ago, GreggTX said:

Kyler Gordon

He is already on the board, see OP. Means if we had a chance, we take him before all these players (what I understand you suggest).

Edited April 19, 2022 by No_Matter_What

[Rochesterfan]

On 4/14/2022 at 5:11 PM, No_Matter_What said:

EDIT: Since we have already chosen 12 players, I thought it was time to add new. However, since you can have only 20 options in one poll question, I had to completely restart the poll with new question. I also lowered number of required votes to 15.

 

The goal of this thread is to create Bills fans draft big board, i.e. an order (board) from players who could be available for our first round pick. 

 

Rules are simple. As soon as a player gets 15 votes he gets on the big board below and is removed from the poll. People who voted for chosen player can vote again. I will add more players as we will proceed.

 

I didn’t include top 10 players who have close to zero chance to get to our pick – Evan Neal, Ikem Ekwonu, Charles Cross, Aidan Hutchinson, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson, Ahmad Gardner, Derek Stingley and Kyle Hamilton. We might not have a chance on couple more players but this is where I decided to draw a line. I also didn’t include any QBs from obvious reasons.

 

Board - players already selected in our voting:

1. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama

2. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State 

3. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson

4. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington

5. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State

6. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa

7. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan

8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah

9. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington

10. Zion Johnson, OG, Boston College

11. Jordan Davis, DL, Georgia

12. Drake London, WR, USC

13.

14.

15.

 

I think we have totally lost the point of the original.  Of the guys left - including some of the guys already picked - none should be in play at 25.

 

You have got the 10 guys that might get picked, but picks 11 and 12 and the remaining picks are what is left - the Bills need to be moving out.  Because you eliminated the top 10 and are missing the QBs - we are dropping into guys that are not worthy - hence having to drop you requirements - these are not guys we are really considering.

[BillsShredder83]

At what point do we start considering Karlaftis? He's certainly at the very top of BPAs left at this point.

I get we dropped 2 picks there last year, but BPA at a premier position... I don't think Beane would think twice about pulling the trigger if he's BPA.