Kurt Warner breakdown on Bills vsJaguars game

[CincyBillsFan]

59 minutes ago, dneveu said:

I just feel like we could have hammered them with Diggs in this game and won.  

I think we hammer them if we only commit one PF and not five.  I get that you're going to get holding calls and illegal motion calls. But when you go well over 100 yards in penalties AND are minus two in TO's you will lose most games against anyone. 

 

BTW those PF penalties led directly to at east 3 Jaguar points and probably robbed the Bills of two FG's.  If we don't have so many PF's we win this game like we beat the Jets at NY last year (18 - 10; didn't score a TD).

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I think we hammer them if we only commit one PF and not five.  I get that you're going to get holding calls and illegal motion calls. But when you go well over 100 yards in penalties AND are minus two in TO's you will lose most games against anyone. 

 

BTW those PF penalties led directly to at east 3 Jaguar points and probably robbed the Bills of two FG's.  If we don't have so many PF's we win this game like we beat the Jets at NY last year (18 - 10; didn't score a TD).

 

 

 

The offense was just killing themselves though.  2 big drops that would have been first downs.  Total whiffs on a few pass protections.  Holding penalties setting them back behind the sticks.  Dead on arrival run game.  Allen just being horrifyingly careless with the ball.

[Another Fan]

Josh played poorly Sunday.  He said it himself.  2018, 2019 I’d be okay with it, now not so much after 252,000,000

 

That being said Kurt Warner’s opinion of him is no more valid to me than any Bills fan or poster here 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, Allen would agree with you.  He didn't sit there distraught in his post game presser and say "I played like *****" (which I've never heard him say before) because he thought he had a passable game with a few mistakes.

 

 

Eh, I don't think it was the reason for that video nor is it the reason I say I don't get as much out of Warner's breakdowns as I do out of some other.

 

But keeping in mind that I lived in St Louis through the "Greatest Show on Turf" days and the aftermath, like 2002 when Warner threw 11 INTs and fumbled 8 times in 6 starts then 2003 where he fumbled 6 times and threw a pick in his 1 start.....while his wife Brenda went on every radio show she could to explain that the team benched her husband because he's a Christian and they didn't like that (it was interpreted the same way as OBJ's father, being his mouthpiece)....I think it's fair to say Warner does ride a narrative sometimes.

 

And one of his narratives about the 2018 QB class was unquestionably that Allen was a big inaccurate jock who couldn't think fast on his feet, of a type that Warner saw preferred to him on multiple occasions during his career and is still salty about.

 

He also thinks his particular strengths are something every QB should be able to accomplish and if they don't, it means they're bad.  Because of his Arena Ball background, making lightening-fast decisions on where to go with the ball and being able to throw short passes with deadly accuracy while on a dead run were his bread-n-butter.   One way I think about it is that Warner has a "Spider Chart" in his brain mapping out his skills and strengths, and when he's evaluating a QB it's from the perspective of how well that QB fits Warner's personal "Spider Chart" as a QB.  But there are other aspects of QB play that Warner was weaker on, giving a different "Spider Chart" that can still indicate good play, and Warner seems to (in general) undervalue these.

 

Allen is improving, but accurate short passes have NEVER been his strength and are still a developing aspect of his game. 

 

Confirmation bias is a "thing", and I think it is likely that Warner looks for aspects of Allen's play that confirm his bias vs. taking a more objective view that factors in OL play and what appears to be the play design (deep to short sometimes, and that he may come off Diggs on a short route because Diggs was his first read IF he was being covered a certain way and not if he wasn't).  

 

 

start watching at the 7:50 mark: https://www.buffalobills.com/video/kurt-warner-i-still-think-josh-has-room-to-grow

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

21 minutes ago, Another Fan said:

Josh played poorly Sunday.  He said it himself.  2018, 2019 I’d be okay with it, now not so much after 252,000,000

 

That being said Kurt Warner’s opinion of him is no more valid to me than any Bills fan or poster here 

 

 

 

A HOF QBs opinion is no more valid than any Bills fan or poster?

[ngbills]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

A HOF QBs opinion is no more valid than any Bills fan or poster?

Some big egos and know it alls on this board...

[Another Fan]

8 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

A HOF QBs opinion is no more valid than any Bills fan or poster?

Not to me.

 

He like anyone else has his own biases.  It’s not like he’s in the locker room with the guys and knows all the exact play calls/dynamics in the group.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

19 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

A HOF QBs opinion is no more valid than any Bills fan or poster?

 

Yeah, that looks like a Bad Take. 

 

Being a HOF QB doesn't mean he's a HOF talent evaluator, a HOF student of the game, expert at breaking down another team's film and conveying it to fans, or that he's right relative to another coach or player's take

 

But anyone who has played or coached football professionally knows about 10,000% more than some random Joe on a fan board.

 

Even played or coached at the college level, knows a lot more.

 

Expertise matters, in football like everything else.

 

 

23 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

start watching at the 7:50 mark: https://www.buffalobills.com/video/kurt-warner-i-still-think-josh-has-room-to-grow

 

That's from last April, right? After Josh had his "breakout season" in 2020 but before the Pittsburgh and Tenn games?

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, that looks like a Bad Take. 

 

Being a HOF QB doesn't mean he's a HOF talent evaluator, a HOF student of the game, expert at breaking down another team's film and conveying it to fans, or that he's right relative to another coach or player's take

 

But anyone who has played or coached football professionally knows about 10,000% more than some random Joe on a fan board.

 

Even played or coached at the college level, knows a lot more.

 

Expertise matters, in football like everything else.

 

 

 

That's from last April, right? After Josh had his "breakout season" in 2020 but before the Pittsburgh and Tenn games?

Yeah, offseason. I'm just saying that I don't think he's reflexively opposed to Josh Allen.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Yeah, offseason. I'm just saying that I don't think he's reflexively opposed to Josh Allen.

 

Me bad if what I wrote was interpreted to mean he was "reflexively opposed" to Josh Allen.  But if you heard his takes after the draft, after Allen's rookie season, and after the Pittsburgh game it's pretty clear (to me) that he had his pre-draft and initial evaluation of Josh as a player and when he sees stuff that confirms it, it stands out to him.

 

After Pittsburgh he was saying things about "sometimes a player has 1 good year and you hope that's who they are but it doesn't turn out that way"

[dave mcbride]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Me bad if what I wrote was interpreted to mean he was "reflexively opposed" to Josh Allen.  But if you heard his takes after the draft, after Allen's rookie season, and after the Pittsburgh game it's pretty clear (to me) that he had his pre-draft and initial evaluation of Josh as a player and when he sees stuff that confirms it, it stands out to him.

 

After Pittsburgh he was saying things about "sometimes a player has 1 good year and you hope that's who they are but it doesn't turn out that way"

Yeah, and he says that in the interview I sent. He talks about outlier seasons where everything comes together and which are never reproduced. He doesn't say that Allen is destined for that at all, but simply says that's why he holds off on judgments after just one great season. I think that's a fair approach. Allen hasn't been as good this season as last, but he's still pretty darn good. He's literally down in every statistical category from last year except sack percentage and INT percentage, although the difference between this season and last season in the latter category is negligible: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm.  Stil a ways to go, of course.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, dneveu said:

 

The offense was just killing themselves though.  2 big drops that would have been first downs.  Total whiffs on a few pass protections.  Holding penalties setting them back behind the sticks.  Dead on arrival run game.  Allen just being horrifyingly careless with the ball.

The Jags had worse drops than us: a terrible drop of a perfect TD pass and later a drop of an excellent pass from Lawrence that would have put them at the five yard line late in the game.

Edited November 11, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Straight Hucklebuck]

He’s not wrong, but it’s a lot of check downs.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

20 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Funny you say that, because I get about the least out of them that I get out of any of the film breakdowns.

Can't tell you why

I loved Kurt Warner as a player, I just don't find his breakdowns that helpful.

and this one is no different. Wow. This was just awful by Kurt Warner. Josh wasn’t quick enough and so missed a 5-yard checkdown. He didn’t throw it right to Beasley’s hands (even though he did that to avoid a defender knocking the ball down).  This is a lousy take. 

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

and this one is no different. Wow. This was just awful by Kurt Warner. Josh wasn’t quick enough and so missed a 5-yard checkdown. He didn’t throw it right to Beasley’s hands (even though he did that to avoid a defender knocking the ball down).  This is a lousy take. 

 

The weirder takes are when he criticizes Allen for where his reads begin, or doing a run fake, without knowing what the design of the play calls for. I absolutely hate that kind of analysis. Brian Daboll and Josh Allen know if he is reading plays incorrectly. Kurt Warner doesn't.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Funny you say that, because I get about the least out of them that I get out of any of the film breakdowns.

Can't tell you why

I loved Kurt Warner as a player, I just don't find his breakdowns that helpful.

Yea I wouldn’t put any stock in an analysis like this one…the whole philosophy is kind of backwards. It’s more like hey this offense had a bad game let’s see how we can blame the quarterback for it. Every position is connected on the offense so it’s not really fair to isolate it like that. Once your qb gets crushed a few times and loses faith in the offensive line all bets are pretty much off reads wise.  It’s the stupid turnovers that made it a bad game for josh imo…I think he did a pretty admirable job moving the football given what he was up against. Cut out those bad turnovers and we could’ve won an ugly one 12-9. One was just a misread of the coverage and fumbles happen but that pick he threw while getting sacked was pretty unforgivable 

56 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I thought he was below average against the Steelers and Dolphins. (And yet some fans claimed he was playing better than last year at that point😅)Excellent from then on until the 2nd Dolphins game and has struggled a bit since…. 

I did pre jags game and I will still claim that regardless of whatever emoji you put after the claim haha our pass blocking is exponentially worse than last year and he’s around about the same level of success…he performed about the same in both Steelers games this year and last year.   He was absolutely horrendous against the titans and chiefs last year and he played more than well enough to win both of those games this year if you want to play the this year vs last year game 

[John from Riverside]

21 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

 

Allen really did struggle in the game. Kurt Warner does amazing breakdowns.

Everyone knows Josh struggled in this game nobody is disputing that

 

I will say this in the breakdown....you cant B word that Josh missed a back on a pass when he took it himself for a positive play....just because you couldnt do it when you were a player Kurt doesnt make it a negative play.  All the rest of it.......yeah good breakdowns

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The weirder takes are when he criticizes Allen for where his reads begin, or doing a run fake, without knowing what the design of the play calls for. I absolutely hate that kind of analysis. Brian Daboll and Josh Allen know if he is reading plays incorrectly. Kurt Warner doesn't.

agreed. He makes it sound on one play that the pass to Singletary is the first read and josh should be focused on reading the DE there. I am pretty sure Singletary is almost never the first read, especially on that play. 

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

agreed. He makes it sound on one play that the pass to Singletary is the first read and josh should be focused on reading the DE there. I am pretty sure Singletary is almost never the first read, especially on that play. 

Your missing the point that the first read can be dependent on the defense. If you see a guy lined up here, it can change the read. If the play does not allow for that then you are screwed and we need a new OC.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

9 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Your missing the point that the first read can be dependent on the defense. If you see a guy lined up here, it can change the read. If the play does not allow for that then you are screwed and we need a new OC.  

that’s a good point. 
 

I will say though on this particular play, if JA makes the correct read on the defensive end, it results in a successful 4 to 5-yard completion to Singletary. I just don’t think the offense and the progressions are designed to achieve that result. 

[ngbills]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

that’s a good point. 
 

I will say though on this particular play, if JA makes the correct read on the defensive end, it results in a successful 4 to 5-yard completion to Singletary. I just don’t think the offense and the progressions are designed to achieve that result. 

A lot of things at play. I think Josh was also shaky because he was getting hit and under duress so much. That impacts the decision making and you play confused. Nothing was going right. This is where I blame Daboll - he did nothing to help. Made no adjustments like adding an extra TE or FB for protection, let alone change up the playcalling. He went out with the same play calls and formation essentially 95% of this game. 

Edited November 11, 2021 by ngbills

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 minutes ago, ngbills said:

A lot of things at play. I think Josh was also shaky because he was getting hit and under duress so much. That impacts the decision making and you play confused. Nothing was going right. This is where I blame Daboll - he did nothing to help. Made no adjustments like adding an extra TE or FB for protection, let alone change up the playcalling. He went out with the same play calls and formation essentially 95% of this game. 

agree completely. I made this same comment after the Steelers game (and  it also applies to the AFCCG last season). You have to see the blocking not holding up, and then change the plan. Help out that line. Get two TE’s on the field; max protect. 

[ngbills]

7 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

agree completely. I made this same comment after the Steelers game (and  it also applies to the AFCCG last season). You have to see the blocking not holding up, and then change the plan. Help out that line. Get two TE’s on the field; max protect. 

Get those OL painting the fence, wax the car. Blocking do not come from here it come from here. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

9 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Get those OL painting the fence, wax the car. Blocking do not come from here it come from here. 

very true. Sometimes what heart knows, head forgets. 

[Billever76]

On 11/10/2021 at 6:26 PM, ticketssince61 said:

Love these type of analyses since they don't show this kind of detail during the came and the average fan cannot see these on their own

 

However,

1. Most of those hidden yards were not that significant

2. A lot of times, it seemed that JA had to throw it a bit off because there were Jags running untouched towards him

3. I am sure that you kind all of these 'hidden yards' with every QB

4. He is a HOF QB, but it is ALOT easier to find the hidden yards a) watching game tape; b) in slow motion and c) with aerial views

I disagree....those hidden yards where the difference in the game

[78thealltimegreat]

Two words Dawson Knox…He’s Joshs safety valve and has developed to be as important to him as Diggs on these yards Warner talks about its no coincidence his Tight Ends in this game had 1 catch 

[Mango]

Situationally things change. But largely I agree with Warner in this one. My biggest complaints with Allen have been late to throw and ball placement. 
 

I can’t disagree with much KW has to say here.