Predict the Season

[GunnerBill]

This is the final of my annual offseason posts. I generally do it around the time, middle of camp, and I try and predict the Bills season game by game. Some of the specific game write ups are for fun, obviously, but I have a pretty good history of being close to the Bills final record. Last year I had them 11-5 and so was two games out. I have been doing this since 2014 on this site and that is only the second time I have been more than one game out (the first was 2015 when I had them 10-6 and they went 8-8). I did get 14 of 16 predictions right last year. The only two I got wrong were I had defeats at San Francisco and Denver, both of which ended up wins (though in my defence those two ended up the two most injury ravaged teams in the league last year). I started last season 11-0 after starting 2019 8-0. In 2019 I nailed the final record (10-6) but got four individual game win / loss predictions wrong. 

 

So here we go.... here is my 2021 prediction:

 

Week 1 - Steelers 24 Bills 27 - A nerve shredder for the Bills to open the season. Ben's arm was noticeably more live in the first 6 weeks of the season than it was thereafter in 2020 and that continues this year as he comes out hot and takes the Steelers into a 17-10 halftime lead. The Bills claw their way back into the game in the second half with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis scoring to put them into a 24-17 lead. But Big Ben is still a gamer and taking the ball inside 4 minutes he marches his team down the field to tie the game with 40 seconds on the clock, only to see Josh Allen execute a lightening drive and a spike with :03 remaining. Tyler Bass hits the game winner as time expires. 1-0

 

Week 2 - Dolphins 16 Bills 31 - The Bills go into Miami and suffocate the Fish on defense. Tua throws a pick 6 right to Tre White early on and Greg Rousseau, back in the state where he played his college ball, has an NFL coming our party with two sacks. Allen throws for 300 yards, 3 touchdowns and a perfect passer rating against the team he increasingly loves to beat. This one is never close. 2-0

 

Week 3 - WFT 20 Bills 23 - Another narrow win in a home game for Buffalo. The Bills get 14-0 up early with some very well scripted and executed drives to keep the fearsome WFT pass rush off balance. However, the third quarter slump (in evidence early in 2020) makes an unwelcome return as the Bills struggle to move the ball after half time and the WFT climb back into the game. Another Bass Field Goal is the difference but only after Jordan Poyer picks off Fitz on a 4th down play in the final seconds, because Fitz is gonna Fitz. 3-0

 

Week 4 - Texans 9 Bills 38 - If the Bills first two home games have been nervy affairs this one is a beat down that is over by half time. The Bills are 28-6 up at the break thanks to Emmanuel Sanders first touchdown in a Bills uniform and a productive day for Singetary and Moss who have a score apiece. The Bills pull Josh Allen midway through the third and let Trubisky finish it out in what proves to be Tyrod Taylor's final start of the season for Houston. 4-0

 

Week 5 - Bills 24 Chiefs 30 - Under the Sunday Night lights the Bills give a decent account of themselves at Arrowhead but still, ultimately, come up short against the Chiefs. The defense manages to exert some pressure on Mahomes and Ed Oliver and Jerry Hughes both record sacks, however, the Chiefs get a two score lead early and even though the Bills are always in touching distance they just can't quite haul themselves on terms. The game ends on a failed 4th down throw from Allen to Diggs which goes incomplete. The Chiefs corner only has two hands grabbing Diggs's jersey so the officials decide not to throw a flag. 4-1

 

Week 6 - Bills 27 Titans 26 - Last year the Bills went 4-0 before defeats in successive weeks to Kansas City and Tennessee but they avoid that fate this year after a back and forth game where both offenses move the ball but turn it over at vital times. Tannehill throws 2 interceptions and Julio Jones has a fumble while Josh Allen throws one pick and loses a fumble on a Quarterback keeper at which point TBD goes into meltdown about Brian Daboll's play calling and he returns to the hot seat. In the end, with the Titans in desperation mode on 4th down, the Bills force their 4th takeaway of the game when Greg Rousseau gets around the edge and forces a strip sack. The Bills survive. 5-1

 

Week 7 - BYE

 

Week 8 - Dolphins 20 Bills 30 - The Dolphins fare moderately better against the Bills second time around. The Bills commit two turnovers - one on special teams (which of course leads to a week of "cut McKenzie" threads) - that give the Dolphins short fields which they take advantage of and going into the 4th this is tied at 17-17. The Bills stretch away as Stefon Diggs finally breaks free from Xavien Howard to have 88 yards receiving and a touchdown in the final quarter. 6-1 

 

Week 9 - Bills 28 Jaguars 21 - The punchy Jaguars are 4-4 coming into this week 9 matchup and rookie Trevor Lawrence is impressing observers with his poise. The Jags lead 7-0, 14-7 and 21-14 in this game but again the Bills raise their level with the game on the line to get on terms early in the 4th with another Stefon Diggs touchdown catch and then Levi Wallace snags an interception on the next Jags drive and Zack Moss barrels in from close range to win it. 7-1

 

Week 10 - Bills 26 Jets 10 - The Bills get out to a fast start here with Gabriel Davis having himself a day against the Jets corners and snagging two first half touchdown catches. It is field goals the rest of the way for the Bills as the Saleh defense is starting to find its grove in New York but Zach Wilson struggles to diagnose the Bills' coverage packages and throws three picks including a second in two weeks into the hands of Levi Wallace. Wilson slumps on the bench shakes his head and is caught muttering "I'm seeing ghosts, man". The Bills meanwhile are 8-1.

 

Week 11 - Colts 6 Bills 30 - The Bills smash the Colts. Shocking? Yea. About as shocking as Carson Wentz's play. By the end of this game his NFL career is basically over. 4 interceptions, a fumble lost and a completion rate below 50%. It's all over. He is benched midway through the second half and never starts a regular season game again. Fortunately the Colts are prepared having traded just before the deadline for one Nick Foles who takes the starting job and leads them past the Tom Brady led Buccs the following week and to a 5-1 record down the stretch and into the playoffs.  9-1

 

Week 12 - Bills 24 Saints 20 - Trap game? Maybe, and I do think Sean Payton is capable of giving McDermott and Frazier's defense trouble. No offensive coach in the NFL takes advantage of your tendencies as well on a week to week basis as Payton. Alvin Kamara has himself a day against the Bills defense with well over 100 all purpose yards. The Bills are in trouble but squeeze through with a 4th Quarter touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders on his return to the Superdome. 10-1

 

Week 13 - Patriots 20 Bills 27 - Another closer game than some might expect as the Patriots find some success running it down the Bills' throats and working the intermediate play action game with Mac Jones. It is tied at 14 at the half but the Bills prevail as Dawson Knox records his first ever 100 yard receiving day and snags a touchdown and Ed Oliver ends the game with a 4th down sack of Jones in the final minute. After two consecutive weeks of run defense woe TBD drive regulars wonder if William Perry (aka The Fridge) could be tempted out of retirement to play 1 tech. 11-1

 

Week 14 - Bills 19 Buccaneers 26 - The Bills fare well for the most part against the reigning Superbowl champions in a surprisingly tight defensive battle that goes back and forth with field goals ruling the roost. Brady gets the ball back with two minutes and change remaining and no time outs. The Bills think they have the drive stopped when Boogie Basham records his first NFL sack on third down at halfway but Tom Brady looks at the referee as he gets up and the ref remembers he is supposed to throw that yellow thing on the floor. The winning touchdown is caught by Antonio Brown who reminds everyone he turned the Bills down just before going off his rocker. Brandon Beane shrugs. 11-2

 

Week 15 - Panthers 30 Bills 34 - The Panthers arrive in Buffalo as one of 2021's surprise packages already with 9 wins and looking to secure a playoff spot in the NFC. For the third time in three seasons the Bills are flexed into the Saturday spot and this is an instant classic. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson take turns in spinning Levi Wallace like a top and the Panthers lead 19-13 at halftime. The Bills claw themselves into a 27-23 lead after a wild 3rd Quarter in which Josh Allen throws for one touchdown and runs for another only for the Panthers to respond with a Sam Darnold score on a Quarterback keeper at the goalline. So it is down to 4th Quarter heroics again and the Bills drive ends up at 4th and 2 right on the edge of Bass's Field Goal range. Sean McDermott rolls the dice and the Bills convert on a flip pass to Dawson Knox before Allen finds Jacob Hollister in the corner of the endzone for his first and only touchdown of the season. 12-2

 

Week 16 - Bills 20 Patriots 21 - The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year losing a heartbreaker in New England. The Bills are ahead in the 4th Quarter when they muff a punt and the Patriots take over with great field position and score through Damien Harris. Sean McDermott takes out his frustration on a sideline telephone. 12-3

 

Week 17 - Falcons 23 Bills 36 - The Bills get up early on the Falcons through Diggs and Beasley with first half touchdown grabs and while Matt Ryan does give the visitors hope early in the second half the Bills keep them at arms length throughout and two long clock killing drives that result in touchdowns sap Atlanta's spirit. The Bills go into week 18 with the chance to clinch the bye and homefield throughout the playoffs. 13-3

 

Week 18 - Jets 14 Bills 40 - The Jets have shown signs of life in Robert Saleh's first year as Head Coach but at this stage they are mentally on the beach and the Bills are laser focussed on SoFi stadium the day before Valentines. McKenzie has his annual week 17 party with two touchdowns and Greg Rousseau sacks Zach Wilson in the 3rd Quarter for his 7th of the season breaking the record for a Bills drafted rookie. 14-3

 

 

So there you have it.... I have kind of surprised myself but my official prediction for the Bills final record is 14-3 and the #1 seed.  That feels a game or two ahead of where my gut says... and I have kind of been thinking 12 or 13 wins all offseason but finding the losses is tricky. Obviously the Titans is the most likely other loss and I called that as a loss last year but I just think Tennessee and Buffalo are two pretty evenly matched teams and games between the two will go back and forth. I said before last season I thought we had the bounce of the ball against them in the previous two seasons when we won close ones and they were "due" well they got all that luck back in spades last season with the covid situation, Tre White being out and then the flukey early INT off Andre Roberts's hands. I just get the sense that the pendulum will swing back our way this year.  Other than that... I think the first two home games are really tricky - Pittsburgh and Washington - both of those are loseable but with home advantage I just give the edge to the Bills. New Orleans on Thanksgiving is a possible trap game on a short week, on the road etc and the Panthers week 15 is a real test (I think they are going to be good and Robby Anderson has always been a tough matchup for Tre White in the past) but the Bills are better than both and should win. 

 

Enjoy the season folks. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

PIT: L

@MIA: W

WFT: W

HOU: W

@KC: L

@TEN: L

MIA: W

@JAC: W

@NYJ: W

IND: W

@NO: W

NE: W

@TB: W

CAR: W

@NE: W

ATL: W

NYJ: W

 

14-3, #2 seed again, win twice at home and go to KC again, but win this time. Bills over Packers in Super Bowl.

[Stank_Nasty]

Our -7 spread for week 1 is tied for the largest spread of the weekend. I really think the week one matchup is one with 2 teams heading in totally opposite directions. Living on the outskirts of “Stiller” country, I can’t think of a better way to start the season than to completely boat race them right out of the gates. 

 

I agree with you in that my gut also says 12-13 wins. But I would argue, if blessed with health, anything up to 15 wins wouldn’t totally surprise me. 

[Beast]

The statistics don't matter. How they got there doesn't matter. The end results are all that matter.

 

The Bills will be the first team to go undefeated since the 72 Dolphins.

 

20-0. Super Bowl Champions.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Beast

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Our -7 spread for week 1 is tied for the largest spread of the weekend. I really think the week one matchup is one with 2 teams heading in totally opposite directions. Living on the outskirts of “Stiller” country, I can’t think of a better way to start the season than to completely boat race them right out of the gates. 

 

I agree with you in that my gut also says 12-13 wins. But I would argue, if blessed with health, anything up to 15 wins wouldn’t totally surprise me. 

 

I agree and I expect the Steelers to go under .500. I just think week 1 is the worst time to get them.

[CSBill]

I see 14 wins and a #1 seed.

[Weatherman]

25 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

PIT: L

@MIA: W

WFT: W

HOU: W

@KC: L

@TEN: L

MIA: W

@JAC: W

@NYJ: W

IND: W

@NO: W

NE: W

@TB: W

CAR: W

@NE: W

ATL: W

NYJ: W

 

14-3, #2 seed again, win twice at home and go to KC again, but win this time. Bills over Packers in Super Bowl.

Have you seen the Chiefs schedule?  It’s quite the gauntlet, highly unlikely they go 14-3 IMO. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Weatherman said:

Have you seen the Chiefs schedule?  It’s quite the gauntlet, highly unlikely they go 14-3 IMO. 

 

Talking of schedules go look at the first half of the Colts season.... brutal. They could end up 1-5 or something like that very easily. 

[Greg S]

I will say 12-5 or 13-4. We always have one of those losses that is "THAT LOSS". A game the Bills shouldn't lose but do. I could see losing to Miami at home as being "THAT LOSS"  or on the road at Jacksonville. That one loss that is a kick right in the nuts and has everyone pissed off. Last season it was the Cardinals game. I do think the Bills win the division. What kind of seed they end up its to early for that. Have a better idea late Nov or early Dec just waiting to see how the AFC plays out.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Remember the 2014 season opener spread vs the Bears? 
 

Bills were something like 14 point underdogs and won the game outright. 
 

I expect the Bills to win but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s close. 

 

Didn't the Steelers start last year off like 10-0 or 11-1 or something like. Ben will be at strongest in the beginning of the season before the hits and wear and tear of playing factor in. Bills should win but I agree with you this will be close.

[HOUSE]

If this team loses 1 game then I am done

[corta765]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Week 16 - Bills 20 Patriots 21 - The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year losing a heartbreaker in New England. The Bills are ahead in the 4th Quarter when they muff a punt and the Patriots take over with great field position and score through Damien Harris. Sean McDermott takes out his frustration on a sideline telephone. 12-3

 

 

Ah the Bills did sweep their division last year

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner just like last year I think you are overally underestimating our ability to score points. You have us at 28,5 per game, we will go over 30.

 

I think 13-4 is most likely while 14-3 is certainly possible.

 

I do agree we lose with Chiefs again and we will look overmatched, so everybody will say that we won't be able to beat them. Until we do in PO (unless somebody like Browns do that for us).

 

I am also pretty sure we will not sweep division and loss against Pats seems most likely. Dolphins are interesting since if we sweep them once again it starts to be serious mental problem for them.

 

My guess is that we will beat Tampa and Titans. We are too good to lose to both Chiefs and Bucs imo.

 

On the other hand, we are really due for some random loss when we are (big) favourites. Maybe Jags or Jets?

 

So gun to the head I say 13-4 while losing to Chiefs, Pats, Jags and one other (WFT, Dolphins, Jets or Panthers).

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for the in-depth prediction Gunner…love the optimism!

 

For nearly twenty years I was able to commit to a solidly mediocre 7-9 but that seventeenth game has me on the fence this season. 😉

[No_Matter_What]

31 minutes ago, Greg S said:

I will say 12-5 or 13-4. We always have one of those losses that is "THAT LOSS". A game the Bills shouldn't lose but do. I could see losing to Miami at home as being "THAT LOSS"  or on the road at Jacksonville. That one loss that is a kick right in the nuts and has everyone pissed off. Last season it was the Cardinals game. I do think the Bills win the division. What kind of seed they end up its to early for that. Have a better idea late Nov or early Dec just waiting to see how the AFC plays out.

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

But like I said above I agree it happens this year, we are due.

[Freddie's Dead]

14-3

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner just like last year I think you are overally underestimating our ability to score points. You have us at 28,5 per game, we will go over 30.

 

I think 13-4 is most likely while 14-3 is certainly possible.

 

I do agree we lose with Chiefs again and we will look overmatched, so everybody will say that we won't be able to beat them. Until we do in PO (unless somebody like Browns do that for us).

 

I am also pretty sure we will not sweep division and loss against Pats seems most likely. Dolphins are interesting since if we sweep them once again it starts to be serious mental problem for them.

 

My guess is that we will beat Tampa and Titans. We are too good to lose to both Chiefs and Bucs imo.

 

On the other hand, we are really due for some random loss when we are (big) favourites. Maybe Jags or Jets?

 

So gun to the head I say 13-4 while losing to Chiefs, Pats, Jags and one other (WFT, Dolphins, Jets or Panthers).

 

I expect scoring across the league to be slightly down on 2020 which was not just a record but smashed the previous record out of the park. Five teams averaged more than 30 points in 2020. Only one did in 2019. I expect things to settle back to more like 2019 levels with fans back in stands and the NFL remembering to call offensive holding. I think the Bills will be top 3 in points but a tick below 30 per game.

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

But like I said above I agree it happens this year, we are due.

 

That all changed when Allen threw that TD pass to Diggs with 30 seconds or so left. Then to lose on hail mary when 3 Bills defenders were in perfect position to make the play. That loss was "THE LOSS" for 2020 as it certainly felt like getting kicked in the nuts.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Greg S

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

Agree. The Browns in 2019 and Cardinals in 2020 are the closest to surprise losses and both were tricky road games against ascending young teams. McDermott since he has been here has been very, very good at winning the games he should win and not having those shock let down games.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year

Wait -- what?  We swept the division last year.

[JMF2006]

4 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks for the in-depth prediction Gunner…love the optimism!

 

For nearly twenty years I was able to commit to a solidly mediocre 7-9 but that seventeenth game has me on the fence this season. 😉

 

If the Bills are anything close to that record it would catastrophic.

 

Unless every starter(all 22) got banged up more than 5 losses would be a disaster.

 

Those 7-9  or 8-9 or 7-10 days should be long behind us and a distant memory thank God

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BillsFanSD said:

Wait -- what?  We swept the division last year.

 

Exactly. They failed to sweep it for the second straight year.... as in if they had swept it then it would be two straight years. 

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, BillsFanSD said:

Wait -- what?  We swept the division last year.

 

I think he means the streak ends at one

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, corta765 said:

 

Ah the Bills did sweep their division last year

 

As above... by losing that game they'd have failed to sweep it for the second straight year. 

[Weatherman]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Talking of schedules go look at the first half of the Colts season.... brutal. They could end up 1-5 or something like that very easily. 

Take a look at the Browns schedule…un real.  They play 4 playoff teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Packers).  By far the easiest schedule in the AFC.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Weatherman

[loyal2dagame]

The Steelers for the opener makes me nervous.  The Bills season will go as that game goes. 

Hoping for 13-14 wins. 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Weatherman said:

Take a look at the Browns schedule…un real.  They play 4 playoff teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Packers).  By far the easiest schedule in the NFL.

 

I  fairness that is still 6 games against playoff teams, but yea they have a scheduling break. It happens the way the rotations work. You land on a couple of divisions with down years and hey presto you have a workable schedule. They do play the Chargers too mind you who everyone expects to be decent.

[No_Matter_What]

13 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

That all changed when Allen threw that TD pass to Diggs with 30 seconds or so left. Then to lose on hail mary when 3 Bills defenders were in perfect position to make the play. That loss was "THE LOSS" for 2020 as it certainly felt like getting kicked in the nuts.

Ok I misunderstood you. I was talking about games that we are (betting) favourites before them, but you are apparently talking about games Bills shouldn't lose based on the game itself.

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

Ok I misunderstood you. I was talking about games that we are (betting) favourites before them, but you are apparently talking about games Bills shouldn't lose based on the game itself.

 

Especially that game. I agree with you in that it was 50/50 going in and it was a road game so if the Bills would have lost in normal fashion then it wouldn't have been a big deal. But to get the lead with 30 seconds left and lose it the way they did was painful. 

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree. The Browns in 2019 and Cardinals in 2020 are the closest to surprise losses and both were tricky road games against ascending young teams. McDermott since he has been here has been very, very good at winning the games he should win and not having those shock let down games.

I am not going to predict each game, but here is my divisional prediction:

 

Bills: 12-5 -  A tougher schedule and a probable split with the Pats, who look to be much better than last season. Genuinely difficult games: both Pats games, Tampa, Pitt (although I think they win this one), TN, Indy, KC, and maybe Washington in the final week. 
 

Pats: 11-6 - They appear to be a LOT better than last season. They still have the greatest coach of all time, and their roster is greatly improved. We don’t like it, but they’ll be good and always a tough out. I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs.

 

Miami: 9-8 / 8-9 - solid roster with a lot of talent, but I’m not a believer in the QB. If he’s genuinely physically recovered form the hip injury, though, he’ll be better. It really limited him last season. The jury is still out on that, of course.

 

Jets: 5-12 - Still bad, but more competitive than last season given the improved roster and a head coach who simply has to be better than Gase. One of those teams that will probably lose to the Bills twice but might sneak one from them in a close game.

18 minutes ago, Weatherman said:

Take a look at the Browns schedule…un real.  They play 4 playoff teams (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Packers).  By far the easiest schedule in the AFC.

They play the Steelers and Ravens twice, so that’s six games, not four. It’s a tough call because the Browns are legit, but I’m picking the Ravens (ever so slightly) to win that division. They have just won too many blowouts in the last couple of seasons to think they’ll win anything less than 11 games.

Edited August 20, 2021 by dave mcbride

[JMF2006]

17-0  on the way to 20-0

 

At least now its not a pie in the sky dream

 

I always used to pick 11-5 or 10-6 but this team could easily go 15-2 with a 3-0 playoff and SB Title #1 for the Buffalo Bills

13 minutes ago, loyal2dagame said:

The Steelers for the opener makes me nervous.  The Bills season will go as that game goes. 

Hoping for 13-14 wins. 

 

The Bills have beat them 2 years straight.

 

I think we play Renegade in between the 3rd and 4th Quarters to rub it in their face

[corta765]

PIT: W. 27-21 tight win as Steelers play tighter but can only get so close

@MIA: L. 24-21 Allen finally plays human and the Bills get caught against a Dolphins team that is looking to prove something

WFT: W. 28-20 Washington hangs around the whole time but Bills are a step above and Fitz can't tie the game on final drive

HOU: W. 35-10 Blowout as Texas play for top overall pick this year. Tyrod gets a standing O for killing the drought

@KC: L. 28-24 Bills lose but mark my words it will be because of a highly controversial call one way or the other that decides the game. The Bills will have the lead also in the 4th quarter adding to Bills fans anguish on the loss.

@TEN: W. 31-27 The game is a track meet but Buffalo wins on the final drive to right the ship at 4-2

MIA: W. 31-20 Dolphins hang in but Bills make no mistake this time around and Allen throws for 400

@JAC: W. 27-17 Jags make a game of it and Lawrence shows he will be entering the AFC top QB discussion soon

@NYJ: W. 41-13 After a lot of closer games the Bills throttle the Jets as Wilson can't do much and a Jets defense can't do much as they are talent thin.

IND: W. 24-14 I think the Colts are not a great team but they are well coached. This game mimics the Chargers last year as Buffalo is the better team but it is close

@NO: W. 29-18 The Saints are a .500 team to me and it is mostly close but the better QB decides the game as Allen gets a late TD to seal the win

NE: W. 27-20 Patriots are improved and it is a tight game like last year at home but the Bills improved defense allows Buffalo ahead throughout and the Pats QB are a bit confused

@TB: L.  27-17 The last time the Bills won in Tampa Bay was 1991 and they have only won twice in TB while losing 7 times. They just seem to have bad games here. Close game until a late fumble by Singletary allows TB to kick a FG mid 4th quarter and ice the game.

CAR: W 34-24. Spirited scoring affair but Buffalo keeps it a 10 pt game pretty much throughout as Allen has his second 400 yd day of the year

@NE: L 21-17. The Patriots built their team to beat Buffalo and finally reign in the Bills. Doesn't matter division is already out of reach and Bills are still able to get AFC top seed as KC has more losses.

ATL: W 28-14. Falcons game is a snoozer as Buffalo jumps out to an early 21-0 lead and just sits ahead the rest of the game. This game has a lot of snow also.

NYJ: W 31-17. Late Jets TD makes the game look closer, it isn't. Another cold blistery day sees the Bills clinch the top AFC seed.

 

Final record 13-4, 9-3 AFC conference record and 4-2 in division

PPG scored: 27.76 (472 pts)

PPG allowed:18.88 (321 pts)

 

Overall it will be another great year with the team in general a little more balanced as the offense is slightly less pass happy because the run game is more effective and the defense reverts back to being top 10. Teams that have scored 500 pts or more have regressed the year after by at least 5 TDs and I think a few of last years wins got inflated late. Additionally having fans back will bring points down a little across the board in the league. Flip side is even though PPG falls by 3.54, PPG allowed also falls by almost 5. The Bills under McD had never had a defense with a DVOA ranked above 10 and last year they were 12th. Trust me the defense is coming back hard this year. Division wise NE (10-7) comes in 2nd and Miami 3rd (10-7) as both make the playoffs and sweeping division is incredibly tough. NE only did it a handful of times with Brady which is why I have them at 4-2. I could see them at 12-5 but honestly looking at the schedule I had a hard time even getting to 13-4.

 

Bills host the Chargers in Division and win, host KC and finally slay the dragon, and then beat LA in the SB.

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As above... by losing that game they'd have failed to sweep it for the second straight year. 

 

lol whoops reading is hard someimtes

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I am not going to predict each game, but here is my divisional prediction:

 

Bills: 12-5 -  A tougher schedule and a probable split with the Pats, who look to be much better than last season. Genuinely difficult games: both Pats games, Tampa, Pitt (although I think they win this one), TN, Indy, KC, and maybe Washington in the final week. 

 

Washington is week 4. I do think that is a tough game. The only one of those I am very confident on is Indy. I have zero, absolute zero faith in their Quarterback situation whether Wentz plays or not. They have downgraded at the most important position on the team. And having looked at their schedule too.... they could be off to a really rough start and if they are I don't think an implosion is beyond the realm of possibility. 

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Washington is week 4. I do think that is a tough game. The only one of those I am very confident on is Indy. I have zero, absolute zero faith in their Quarterback situation whether Wentz plays or not. They have downgraded at the most important position on the team. And having looked at their schedule too.... they could be off to a really rough start and if they are I don't think an implosion is beyond the realm of possibility. 

Wentz should be fine by that point. The last time Wentz played against Buffalo, he played great. I suspect he regresses to the mean, which means upward movement. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Wentz should be fine by that point. The last time Wentz played against Buffalo, he played great. I suspect he regresses to the mean, which means upward movement. 

 

The last time Wentz played football he was pulled for Jalen Hurts because he couldn't let the ball go let alone get it to a teammate. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The last time Wentz played football he was pulled for Jalen Hurts because he couldn't let the ball go let alone get it to a teammate. 

Like I said, regression to the mean. He is going from a team that had arguably the worst o-line in the league to a team with one of the very best. Let’s wait and see. He was actually pretty good in the previous two seasons and basically got them to the playoffs nearly single-handedly in 2019.

Edited August 20, 2021 by dave mcbride

[JMF2006]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The last time Wentz played football he was pulled for Jalen Hurts because he couldn't let the ball go let alone get it to a teammate. 

 

He turned into Trentative Edwards

[RiotAct]

Not gonna predict scores, just wins and losses:

 

PIT: W (after coming out very flat in the first half)

@MIA: W

WFT: W

HOU: W

@KC: W

@TEN: L

MIA: W

@JAC: W

@NYJ: W

IND: L

@NO: W

NE: W

@TB: W

CAR: W

@NE: W

ATL: W

NYJ: L

 

14-3, baby

Edited August 20, 2021 by RiotAct

[dave mcbride]

1 minute ago, JMF2006 said:

 

He turned into Trentative Edwards

He was really bad last season for a number of reasons, but the Eagles’ line really was THAT bad.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, dave mcbride said:

Like I said, regression to the mean. He is going from a team that had arguably the worst o-line in the league to a team with one of the very best. Let’s wait and see.

 

I just don't think he can play. Most of his issues last year were on him. If Carson Wentz looks like even a league average NFL Quarterback this year I'd vote for Frank Reich as coach of the year regardless of record. That is how convinced I am that the guy is broken beyond repair.