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Beane's salary cap management


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I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse.   We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL.

 

Just as interesting I thought was the numbers for each team's dead cap space.   The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today.  The league average for dead space is $9.3m.   The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m 

 

It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space.  The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the Bills' books in one year.  It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. 

 

Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident.   He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit.   It's because of this that  I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road.   I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble.  It's what a responsible GM should do.

 

Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year.  What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well.   Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap.  Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills.   Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now.

 

Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success".  I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

 

Edited by Inigo Montoya
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I wonder if sustained success is the model or if the Bills should go for it the next 2 seasons and make more "win now" moves? Given that Josh's contract is going to heavily impact things in 2022-2023 (depending on the timing of his contract) and beyond is the window to win smaller than projected? It will be very telling to see how they approach this off-season. So far the choices have been to be more balanced and pick their spots for larger deals.

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14 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I was looking at Sportrac to see where the Bills cap situation was after releasing Brown and Jefferson and restructuring Butler and Morse.   We currently have $25m in cap space which is 13th best in the NFL.

 

Just as interesting I though was the numbers for each team's dead cap space.   The Bills are 13th best in the league with just $4.1m of dead cap on the books as of today.  The league average for dead space is $9.3m.   The Chargers are in the best shape with only $58,000 in dead cap space, and the Eagles are worst with $40.1m 

 

It's nice to see that Beane has made contracts over the last four years with an eye towards maximizing salary cap flexibility and minimizing dead cap space.  The Eagles are in the same situation the Bills were in during year two of the Beane regime when he deliberately ate all of the dead cap off of the the Bills' books in one year.  It is going to be hard to field a competitive roster in Philly this year with 25% less salary available to build their roster. 

 

Beane has said repeatedly that this low dead cap hit is not an accident.   He knows that to field a competitive lineup you can't handicap your roster with a big dead cap hit.   It's because of this that  I don't expect to see Beane making a lot of moves that push the cost of contracts down the road.   I think he will do his best to structure contracts that will not put the franchise back in cap trouble.  It's what a responsible GM should do.

 

Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year.  What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well.   Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap.  Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills.   Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now.

 

Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success".  I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/cap/

People have been saying for a while the Bills are in good shape. 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Not sure they are done cutting players. I could see Addison next. 

Yea... wouldn't be surprised to see a change of strategy if they come up short of a championship this season next offseason. 

 

They aren't done yet.   They are waiting for things to shake out, I think the cuts they made were for players that they believe they already have or are pretty sure that they have upgrades or at least comparable options.   Gabe is very likely penciled in as the opposite side receiver to Diggs and Stills as a good option to stretch the field.  John Brown was flexible in this sort of cap crunch year.

 

Jefferson disappointed and I think they saw enough.   Butler and Morse have taken pay cuts, and I imagine Addison is very likely a goner as well.

 

The Bills have enough room to sign the rookie class and enough to sign some potential impacting well-known players who were cap casualties. 

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13 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

Some people are saying Beane should restructure a bunch of current contracts to free up money now and utilize signing bonuses and other tricks that push the cap hit into future years because the cap will go up 20% next year.  What they aren't considering is that the cost of player contracts will go up 20% next year as well.   Player salaries are going to keep pace with the cap.  Every team will have an extra 20% to spend on their roster, not just the Bills.   Bad contracts and dead cap space will hurt just as much then as they do now.

 

Beane has spoken frequently about "sustained success".  I don't think he is going to change how he operates and mortgage the team's future like the Saints did to try and win now.

 

 

 

Its hard to argue with what you are saying, however I think you need to consider this years cap reduction/situation as a a one off and something that they didnt forsee happening...

 

We know the situation with the available cap space today, even after a couple of more obvious cuts and restructures that have already happened..  they dont have a lot to play with and they have some holes to fill in what we expect (hope)  is a year that they will be contending for the championship... so I think they need to free up a bit more money for this free agency period...

 

I'd be ok with restructuring a couple of guys to push a bit of money into the next couple of years.. there might be quite a large increase in the cap next year , so roll the dice whilst JA is still cheap... 

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2 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

A lot easier to do this when they don’t have to pay Allen $50 million/ year. This is their year to go all in because everything is about to become that much more difficult in 2022. 

2023. Allen has to sign an extension. Cap hit for 21 and 22 will not be affected that much. 

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

They aren't done yet.   They are waiting for things to shake out, I think the cuts they made were for players that they believe they already have or are pretty sure that they have upgrades or at least comparable options.   Gabe is very likely penciled in as the opposite side receiver to Diggs and Stills as a good option to stretch the field.  John Brown was flexible in this sort of cap crunch year.

 

Jefferson disappointed and I think they saw enough.   Butler and Morse have taken pay cuts, and I imagine Addison is very likely a goner as well.

 

The Bills have enough room to sign the rookie class and enough to sign some potential impacting well-known players who were cap casualties. 

Stills isn't on the team

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It also looks like the Bills will need 5.4M for their rookies, assuming we keep all 6 picks and don't move in the draft. Let's just round that to 20M to make things easier. What do you guys think the bills will do?

Didn't Beane say not to expect any major signings in FA this year? I'm assuming he means players from other teams, not Williams/Milano.

Maybe cut 1 or 2 more players, and extend Williams and call it a day?

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1 minute ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Its hard to argue with what you are saying, however I think you need to consider this years cap reduction/situation as a a one off and something that they didnt forsee happening...

 

We know the situation with the available cap space today, even after a couple of more obvious cuts and restructures that have already happened..  they dont have a lot to play with and they have some holes to fill in what we expect (hope)  is a year that they will be contending for the championship... so I think they need to free up a bit more money for this free agency period...

 

I'd be ok with restructuring a couple of guys to push a bit of money into the next couple of years.. there might be quite a large increase in the cap next year , so roll the dice whilst JA is still cheap... 

 

Agreed, but the question is how far to you go to mitigate.  You could argue you just take your medicine this year and then future years are unaffected.   Or you try and spread it out.  I tend to be conservative with stuff like this so my nature would be to minimize contract restructures.  But they may need to do some to just fill some of the holes that are created.  Andre Roberts, Feliciano, D Williams, Milano just to get started.  As it stands today, we maybe can get one of those guys with what they need to still fill in on the back end and the fact they will need 8-10M for the draft class.   I think you might be best off letting the dust settle and get some bargains.

 

Player development will be huge moving forward....its hard to say this team will not take a step back talent wise for 2021.  I think that will have to be accepted.

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6 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

2023. Allen has to sign an extension. Cap hit for 21 and 22 will not be affected that much. 

Stills isn't on the team

Thanks 

 

but this is the hard part of the job. People love killing Whaley but when you have good talent getting second contracts, it costs a lot more.

 

the good/ bad side is they actually have a legit franchise guy. But the problem is when they have to pay him a ton. This is the SB window. This is when you go all in with short year contracts. 

Edited by C.Biscuit97
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He has done and awesome job w the cap, we were sitting pretty to keep everyone we wanted to keep. The pandemic hits and we are still in pretty good shape compared to many others. The man has done a phenomenal job in not having us hamstrung! Future looks very bright as far as money availability goes! 

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5 minutes ago, costrovs said:

It had me confused for a second too, but that 15M is still from a salary cap of 173M. It'll go up to at least 183M, hence the 25M in cap space.

Nah, I don't think so. It has the cap set at $182.5M and the adjusted cap set at $188M which would be right if you add our rollover. I think we literally have a little more than $15M right now in cap room. 

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8 minutes ago, costrovs said:

It also looks like the Bills will need 5.4M for their rookies, assuming we keep all 6 picks and don't move in the draft. Let's just round that to 20M to make things easier. What do you guys think the bills will do?

Didn't Beane say not to expect any major signings in FA this year? I'm assuming he means players from other teams, not Williams/Milano.

Maybe cut 1 or 2 more players, and extend Williams and call it a day?

He said don't expect a Diggs like move. But they tried signing Watt. 

 

I think we can forget a big $15+ million deal for anyone, but there will be some big names available below that #. 

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2 minutes ago, H2o said:

Nah, I don't think so. It has the cap set at $182.5M and the adjusted cap set at $188M which would be right if you add our rollover. I think we literally have a little more than $15M right now in cap room. 

good point, I didn't see that. Looks like 15M it is.

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The more I look at how Beane is managing things I'm starting to think we'll be drafting OL twice in the first 3 rounds and expecting them to see heavy playing time. We can create a little more cap with a couple of releases here or there, but we still need $6-$7M just to sign our draft picks. 

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28 minutes ago, H2o said:

Nah, I don't think so. It has the cap set at $182.5M and the adjusted cap set at $188M which would be right if you add our rollover. I think we literally have a little more than $15M right now in cap room. 

Brown, Jefferson and Butler gives us $14 million alone. I saw on Twitter it is about $25 million under. Let me see if I can find it again...

 

Edit:

 

Lee Smith already said he was retiring so that adds $2.25 to the $18, so we are at around $20.25M plus whatever Butlers reduction is. I will assume some more moves or restructures will becoming as well. 

 

Edited by Reed83HOF
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6 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

Brown, Jefferson and Butler gives us $14 million alone. I saw on Twitter it is about $25 million under. Let me see if I can find it again...

I don’t know if sportrac counted the Morse/Butler restructures. That won’t put it at 25, might be close to 19 though 

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13 minutes ago, H2o said:

The more I look at how Beane is managing things I'm starting to think we'll be drafting OL twice in the first 3 rounds and expecting them to see heavy playing time. We can create a little more cap with a couple of releases here or there, but we still need $6-$7M just to sign our draft picks. 

We are picking low, not sure how much the rookies will actually add to the top 51 which the cap is based on. It's weird to be in this situation this year drafting so late and not having the rookies count much against the cap

5 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I don’t know if sportrac counted the Morse/Butler restructures. That won’t put it at 25, might be close to 19 though 

Twitter from Joe B, Parrino, Sal C all seem to be accounting for Morse, no one seems to have the Butler savings from what I have seen so far. Lee Smith retiring (he said it himself) will at 2.25 to the 18m we were already at...

 

At least that's what it seems everyone is relying on. Our carry over was only 3.8m and we were hoping for 5.5ish

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9 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I don’t know if sportrac counted the Morse/Butler restructures. That won’t put it at 25, might be close to 19 though 

They didn't. It's around $18 million without Butler restructure or Lee Smith savings. 

 

So with Lee Smith it's around $20 million. Butler must be at least $2 million savings. So $22-23 million is a closer number. 

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43 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He said don't expect a Diggs like move. But they tried signing Watt. 

 

I think we can forget a big $15+ million deal for anyone, but there will be some big names available below that #. 

Curtis Samuel.  I've got a feeling...

 

He can play slot, boundary, can line up as a RB too.  Would be their fastest guy on offense who can stretch the field

and run varied routes.  24 or 25 years old.  Don't think he's costing more than 10 or so.  Because of his versatility,

speed and age (he can grow with Diggs and Allen).  He fits what they want and need athletically.  I think this is one of

the guys they go after.

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5 minutes ago, purple haze said:

Curtis Samuel.  I've got a feeling...

 

He can play slot, boundary, can line up as a RB too.  Would be their fastest guy on offense who can stretch the field

and run varied routes.  24 or 25 years old.  Don't think he's costing more than 10 or so.  Because of his versatility,

speed and age (he can grow with Diggs and Allen).  He fits what they want and need athletically.  I think this is one of

the guys they go after.

Yup. He is my hunch too. He fills the Brown and Mckenzie roles

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13 minutes ago, purple haze said:

Curtis Samuel.  I've got a feeling...

 

He can play slot, boundary, can line up as a RB too.  Would be their fastest guy on offense who can stretch the field

and run varied routes.  24 or 25 years old.  Don't think he's costing more than 10 or so.  Because of his versatility,

speed and age (he can grow with Diggs and Allen).  He fits what they want and need athletically.  I think this is one of

the guys they go after.

 

l will be gobsmacked if they spend $10Mil on a WR this free agency period...

 

Draft or Bargain Basement $2-3M guy looking to play in a WR friendly offense on a 1 year deal is I suspect where they head..

 

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I think that Beane wants the Bills to a perennial contender, and has only little interest in the flash in the pan concepts, it’s not that he won’t do a Diggs type of deal every  so often, but he is very pragmatic in his approach to running a football team, which is a very good thing for Buffalo, jmo. 

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5 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

l will be gobsmacked if they spend $10Mil on a WR this free agency period...

 

Draft or Bargain Basement $2-3M guy looking to play in a WR friendly offense on a 1 year deal is I suspect where they head..

 

Beane talked about needing to get faster.  They let Brown go.  He was their fasted on offense.  I would be shocked if they

spent 10 mil on a traditional WR; for example if they went after Fuller or Golladay or Davis, etc.  

 

Samuel is not that player.  He brings the speed and athleticism the Bills want.  He's younger than Smoke so it's more of an investment

and he is a versatile player, which also fits what the Bills like in their players.  He can line up at multiple spots as a WR and he can

also be given legit carries from the backfield.  He's a playmaker/chess piece more than a WR.  Think of him  like that.  He's the type of player that helps you beat KC.

Edited by purple haze
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I've said all along what separates good gms from bad ones is their ability to create flexibility so they can move on from their mistakes as the very best GMs make a ton of mistakes. Beane's rarely been in a position where the Bills have to keep a player because cutting them is too expensive. There may be a value prop that keeps them on the roster, but their hand is not forced. Look at teams like the Jets who had to eat a ton of dead cap just to get Trumaine Johnson off the team.

 

Look at the defensive line, the Bills brought in quick, penetrating players and it backfired. The league changed how they call holding which disproportionately affects these type of players and Star's covid opt out caused them a lot of problems. Now the salary cap drop which pre-covid no one could have predicted and Beane has given himself enough flexibility to maneuver. 

 

That's how you can compete year after year. 

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Just now, purple haze said:

Beane talked about needing to get faster.  They let Brown go.  He was their fasted on offense.  I would be shocked if they

spent 10 mil on a traditional WR; for example if they went after Fuller or Golladay or Davis, etc.  

 

Samuel is not that player.  He brings the speed and athleticism the Bills want.  He's younger than Smoke so it's more of an investment

and he is a versatile player, which also fits what the Bills like in their players.  He can line up at multiple spots as a WR and he can

also be given legit carries from the backfield.  He's a playmaker/chess piece more than a WR.  

 

Not saying I dont see the value in the player, but I dont see it this offseason.. 

 

Unless they want to get lucky and fill all their holes in the draft...but I dont think thats Beane's style

 

Time will tell and I have been wrong plenty of times before though

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8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

He also played for Carolina so it’s being considered....

They would have intel on him for sure.

6 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Not saying I dont see the value in the player, but I dont see it this offseason.. 

 

Unless they want to get lucky and fill all their holes in the draft...but I dont think thats Beane's style

 

Time will tell and I have been wrong plenty of times before though

I get where you're coming from.  I think the fact Beane was in on Watt tells us he will go hunting for the right piece.

To me, you go all in on surrounding Josh Allen.  The D might be the focus at top of the draft.  It's all a matter of

what Beane sees as the right piece.  Is the more impactful piece on Offense or Defense as compared to what might

be available at their draft positions.  I could see Samuel and one of these OG's that have been released as opposed

to Mongo being re-signed.  Beane is looking to upgrade, not just plug in.  If Mongo wants 8 per year, for instance, maybe

Beane would rather take that 8 million add a couple more and pay Joe Thuney.  The Super Bowl window is open.  There's

a reason guys are getting let go and some of their own haven't been re-signed yet.

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3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes. I honestly hate the idea of having Davis just take over Browns spot..... you upgrade the offense instantly with Samuel. 

I think Davis is going to be very good for them.  And I wouldn't be upset if they rolled with him.  But the tea

leaves don't support that thinking.  You get Samuel, run 4 wide, or 3 wide and put Samuel at RB for some 

plays.  Bease is out in a year or two. Once he goes, put Samuel there and then Davis can take over the 2 spot.  However,

it's done, I think we see the Bills add a playmaker or two to that offense in the next week.

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8 minutes ago, H2o said:

The more I look at how Beane is managing things I'm starting to think we'll be drafting OL twice in the first 3 rounds and expecting them to see heavy playing time. We can create a little more cap with a couple of releases here or there, but we still need $6-$7M just to sign our draft picks. 

 

I think drafting two rookie O-line even high up to start is foolish in this day in age. You have a stud young QB in a win now window. Why rely on two rookies to play heavy snaps on an O-line? Rookie play on the O-line isn't plug and play as it used to be. 15 years ago you could draft a RT and a Guard in the first two rounds and reasonably expect production. Now first round talents are lucky to be impact contributors. You draft one fine, that's the cap and there is a certain level of risk you can take but don't let D.Williams walk and think a rookie is plug and play. That would be very foolish on McBeane's part.

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8 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I hope that’s the line of thinking... something tells me defense is the priority as it always seems to be and they use a day 2 or 3 draft pick on a developmental WR and that’s about it for the skills position this offseason. I’d be slightly disappointed in that plan but I think the priority is dominate pass rusher. 

I don't know that a dominant pass rusher is available.  There are several good ones.  I don't think Beane will overpay for one of them.

They went and got Diggs for Allen.  They tried to get Olsen before he signed with the Seahawks.  And after seeing KC up close twice,

I think Offense will be the big signing.   Because even great defense is ultimately outmatched by KC more often than not.  The Bills need

to score to beat KC. Diggs can score from anywhere on the field.  They just let Smoke go; McKenzie hasn't been re-signed.  So who else

fits that description in terms of speed?  They don't have it. They can't sit tight l on O. 

 

It's why folks getting mad about suggestions of Etienne at 30 doesn't make sense.  The Bills NEED playmakers/chess pieces that have sudden scoring syndrome.  They are at the next level right now and the next level from there goes through a team that has many sudden scoring syndrome players.

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10 minutes ago, purple haze said:

I think Davis is going to be very good for them.  And I wouldn't be upset if they rolled with him.  But the tea

leaves don't support that thinking.  You get Samuel, run 4 wide, or 3 wide and put Samuel at RB for some 

plays.  Bease is out in a year or two. Once he goes, put Samuel there and then Davis can take over the 2 spot.  However,

it's done, I think we see the Bills add a playmaker or two to that offense in the next week.

DL, OL, CB. 

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