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Trade up or trade back in this year’s draft?


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20 hours ago, TPS said:

@Aussie Joe provided a couple other examples under McBeane, Zay and Cody.  I simply disagree with the generalization about trading up vs trading back.  It's all about the specific situation, not a general rule that one is better than the other.

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

 

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Depends on who is there when we pick.  A true difference-maker may drop in our laps.  However, the talent between 25-40 is pretty interchangeable.  So if somebody wants to jump into the end of the fir

I trust our front office. It’s impossible to know what the best option is now. Who falls, and how do you value them? How many guys who are graded almost equally are available coming up?    I

Trade up. I think our roster is at the point that we need more quality pics over depth pics. It's getting harder and harder to crack a Bills roster w/ this front office in place. Ill take a few player

4 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

Yeah, that's why I stated "McBeane". However, your point was about trading back vs trading up, not who is doing the picking.  I don't think it's controversial to say the choice is dependent on the situation.  If you have a group of say 6-7 guys with similar grades, and you don't have a specific positional need, I'm sure Beane would not hesitate to make a move back to pick up additional assets and still get one of the guys in the group. 

 

The real issue in your example is the Bills (Buddy) were desperate to find a "franchise" QB in a terrible QB class--it was either EJ or Geno Smith.  The Rams took Tavon Austin with the Bills' pick, and the Bills were able to get Kiko and M Goodwin with the additional picks from the trade.  Maybe they should've taken a someone like OT Pugh at 16 and stuck with Fitzpatrick? There were some decent players at pick 8, but picking up 3 starters by trading back and keeping Fitz "could" have been a good strategy back then.   Hindsight...

 

 

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14 minutes ago, buffaloaggie said:

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

As I've been arguing, it is always situation dependent. The biggest determinant this year will be whether or not Beane can work any magic with FA.  If you lose Milano or Williams, then you have a big hole or two to fill, and you will be forced to think about need instead of BPA.

 

This will be a very interesting draft given the difficulty from a Covid season, so I won't be surprised if team grades are all over the place, and a prospect the Bills really like is there at 30.  I do agree with you, however, there is a lot of talent to be had in R2 and into R3, but I wouldn't trade back if there's someone there they really like.

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On 2/23/2021 at 12:07 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

Trade back. They need multiple cheap players for the DL, OL, and a TE prospect out of this draft.  Of course that all depends on what they do in FA.  If they land Watt, bring back Feliciano and Williams then maybe then I would be fine standing pat and getting Harris at 30. Follow by drafting four front 7 defenders and a TE with the rest of the picks.  To do this they need Star to come back and most likely will need to cut Brown, Butler, Jefferson, and Addison.  They could choose to keep one of those four on a restructured deal.  

Trading back is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Number of picks trumps ranking of picks IMO.

 

Give yourself more spins of the wheel to hit on some great players.

 

 

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On 2/22/2021 at 9:31 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Because of the pandemic this whole season was upside down. Most college players have less tape to go off of. Draft picks this season will be much riskier. 

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. 

 

While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.

Edited by glazeduck
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On 2/24/2021 at 4:44 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

If Milano goes, that'll even further increase the already good odds that Edmunds stays. It might be hard to pay two LBs big money. If we're not paying Milano, paying Edmunds will be less painful.

 

As for picking LBs in the first and 2nd this year? That would be a massive surprise. One? Certainly very possible, especially if Milano goes. Two? Really unlikely. We have other needs.

I agree that it's unlikely that we go LB 1 and 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did (if Milano walks). McDs defense depends so heavily on LBs and I just don't see beane and mcd paying big money for edmunds that played decent at best this year, and got absolutely toyed with by mahomes. We will have to get Milanos replacement this year, and we could bring up edmunds replacement as well. Going into 2022 with two solid LBs on cheap rookie deals, instead of having to exercise edmunds or pay premium for a FA.

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7 hours ago, Norcalbillsfan said:

I agree that it's unlikely that we go LB 1 and 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if we did (if Milano walks). McDs defense depends so heavily on LBs and I just don't see beane and mcd paying big money for edmunds that played decent at best this year, and got absolutely toyed with by mahomes. We will have to get Milanos replacement this year, and we could bring up edmunds replacement as well. Going into 2022 with two solid LBs on cheap rookie deals, instead of having to exercise edmunds or pay premium for a FA.

 

 

Be surprised, be very surprised.

 

We get this every single year, though it's usually only a few people and at a different position every year. A couple years ago there were some who thought we should go 1 and 2 at WR. People have said this before at LB, they've said it before at Edge ... it just goes on and on. Yet it never happens, and for good reason. I mean, every once in a while a stupid team does it, but not the Bills and certainly not this smart FO.

 

It doesn't make sense. And this year far less than ever. Too many needs, too few chances in terms of money and picks to address those needs.

 

And it's nonsense that Edmunds played decent at best. He played poorly early when he was injured and he played very well once he got better. And yeah, Mahomes really made him look bad. We should trade for one of those LBs who don't look bad against Mahomes, like, like um ... well, like nobody really. I guess you could say Devin White, but though he did look good, an awful lot of that was simply how well the DL was pressuring the QB. Mahomes with time makes everyone look bad, everyone.

 

If we get rid of Milano, the odds on getting rid of Edmunds become miniscule, and they're low already, absent regression or injury or that kind of thing. Some fans here don't like Edmunds but the Bills love him and that's the bottom line.

Edited by Thurman#1
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18 hours ago, buffaloaggie said:

This is a very deep draft. Trading back and gathering more picks makes the most sense in this draft. 

 

 

Is it? I have to say I am not in love with this draft class. It is a really good group of offensive tackles, maybe the best I have ever looked at in terms of depth (think last year's top 4 were ahead of this year's top 4 but there are still good round 1 options). I think there is decent depth to the edge group too but it lacks stand out talents at that spot. 

 

Beyond that.... meh. There are a couple of nice receivers I like later but it isn't close to last year's class. 

 

Not saying I wouldn't be open to them moving back from #30... especially if they can pick up a 2 and a 3 and give themselves 4 picks in the top 100... but the guys they will be picking there are more cheap contributers than stars IMO.

Edited by GunnerBill
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13 hours ago, glazeduck said:

This wasn't intended as an argument for trading down (the opposite, in fact), but I think it is exactly that. With Covid affecting both the college season and draft e v a l process, teams will have less information about players than normal, which will lead to more busts and more late round gems. It will come down to your scouting department's ability to unearth undervalued talent, and I think ours has done a stellar job. 

 

While the "math" isn't perfect, this year -- more than ever -- any pick after the "safe" players will be closer in value to the next pick, and the subsequent one after that, etc. Basically (dumbed down) a 2=3=4=5=6=7. Move up, get a couple late picks back.


I was going to say something similar.  Given we most likely are not going for something big in FA with most likely less to spend (outlier it’s possible, but not likely we could get Watt if several things bounce our way) so the first three rounds we could stay put, and the later picks we could move down to increase numbers.

 

We have a pretty talented team that will have another year with the same coaching staff, and continuity helps the younger guys like a Dane Jackson.  Beane has a hx of trading up so if he sees a target, he may go for it.

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With he current cap situation, feel they scruff at the current position, or move back.

 

goong to need as many less expensive players as they can, and don’t want to have to deal with a JA or Tre type contract in 4 years.  Pretty sure Beane can’t get rookies who can contribute through the draft.

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On 2/25/2021 at 8:41 AM, Nextmanup said:

Trading back is almost always the right thing to do.

 

Number of picks trumps ranking of picks IMO.

 

Give yourself more spins of the wheel to hit on some great players.

 

 

Another common sense reason to acquire more picks this april is the limited scouting on these guys. There's likely to be more misses than hits. If we use whatever FA money is left on Watt or Ngakoue, then I'd definitely trade back.

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On 2/24/2021 at 11:37 AM, Thurman#1 said:

And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team.  You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.

 

I think every draft is different though. This draft in particular there doesn't appear to be great depth, especially at positions of need for the Bills. Also with covid restrictions on the 2020 college season, the combine, and player meetings, scouting the mid-rounds is a lot harder than usual. And it is unlikely in any draft that you'll get a player at #30 that you have a 1st round grade one.

 

So it's a matter of value. Let's say a player that Beane has a 1st round grade on drops to #25, and he has to give up our low 3rd round pick to get him. Would you rather have one player with a 1st round grade, or two players with a 2nd round grade and a borderline 3rd/4th round grade? It isn't as clear cut as "more picks give you more chances." If you give a player a 1st round grade it's because you believe he can impact the team from day 1 and become a franchise cornerstone player. If you trust your scouting you should always value that type of player more than 2 players that you just see as moderate contributors.

 

Of course the risk comes from the fact that if you trade up you HAVE to be right about the player. Trading up for Edmunds doesn't look too good in retrospect because he hasn't shown that he can definitively be a franchise cornerstone which is what you expect from your 1st round players.

Edited by HappyDays
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On 2/26/2021 at 1:36 AM, Albany,n.y. said:

Zay Jones was before Beane arrived.  He was drafted the year McDermott was running the draft using the scouting reports from Whaley's team while Whaley was banned from speaking in public.  On the other side, Dawkins was also traded up for in the same draft & is our franchise LT.  

 

Cody Ford's grade is incomplete.  He was out of position at RT as a rookie & got hurt in his 2nd season.  We'll know a lot more about Ford during  the 2021 season.  

 

 

 


Knox?

 

Another incomplete?

 

Edited by Aussie Joe
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On 2/22/2021 at 11:58 PM, Tipster19 said:

I don’t expect for the Bills to just stand pat at the 30th pick overall unless for reason there is a serious slide of talent of need. If not then which train of thought would be more beneficial, trading up or trading back? I would think that either way could be influenced by the salary cap reduction. By trading up I would think that it would take some serious draft capital (multiple picks) to get in position of acquiring a serious talent, especially of one of need. Now who or what position that would be I cannot say but by doing this this would create one big contract and spending less money on multiple draft picks all the while of having a 1st rd player who provide the Bills with a 5th year option. 
 

In trading back the Bills could accumulate multiple players, providing a better chance of filling needs with smaller contracts. Drafting for LBs and OL, very good players could be found in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rds. Expecting to be losing some players due to the salary cap reduction (*see Milano) it would be the prudent way of balancing the ledger but the influx of young inexperience players might not be in the best interest of the window of opportunity that the Bills are currently in. This might though allow the Bills to add some mid range veterans through free agency to help offset the mass addition of young draftees. 
 

So which would be a better fit for the Bills, drafting for a higher quality of player of need in the 1st rd and have less picks or to draft for a quantity of lower draft picks?

Trade back we pickup an extra second and fourth...add a TE, OT, LB, RB and we good 

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20 hours ago, glazeduck said:

Pitts - hell yes! 

Harris - god no!

The way I see it both Pitts and Harris could have an immediate impact on a Bills football team looking for its 1st Championship IMO.Both in all likelihood will be gone within the 1st 15 draft selections IMO. 

 

On the other hand I don't see Buffalo having much luck finding trade partners...(trading into the top 12) 

Edited by Figster
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To me, there’s lots of prospects that I like that have an early 2nd to mid 3rd round grade. I think if we could trade down and get an extra 2nd and 3rd, you have to do it.

 

Carlos Basham Jr, EDGE

Zaven Collins, LB

Pat Freiermuth, TE

Najee Harris, RB

Jabril Cox, LB

Chaz Surratt, LB

Jay Tufele, DT

Hunter Long, TE

Marvin Wilson, DT

Tedarrell Slaton, DT

Creed Humphrey, C/G

Quinn Meinerz, C/G

 

And I’m sure I’m leaving quite a few people out. It would benefit us greatly to trade down. If there were ever a year to trade down, this would be it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Let’s play a game. Which player would you take if we traded up and which player would you take if we traded down and who would you take if we stayed put?

 

Keep in mind, if you want a guy like Kyle Pitts for example, a guy who is projected to go in the top 10, please factor that in and be realistic about the compensation it would take to go up and get him. Same goes for trading down. Keep in mind that if you were to go down too far, your prospect may be unavailable. 
 

Trade up: 

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame

Daniel Jeremiah has him as his 21st overall prospect. Hypothetically speaking, if he fell to around #25 I’d be more than willing to package #30 and say a 2022 4th RD pick to get him and maybe an additional 5th or 6th this year.

 

Owusu is a hybrid LB and can also play a bit of safety. Last year we wanted Kyle Dugger, who unfortunately went to New England before we could get him but Owusu is a much better player than Dugger is and ever will be and could fit that role here perfectly. Owusu would be Milano’s replacement ultimately and a huge upgrade at that.

 

 

Trade down:

Carlos “Boogie” Basham Jr.

Ultimately one of my favorite players in the draft. I am much higher on him than most are. I don’t think he would be a waste at #30 but from the looks of it, he should be available at #45-#50 if we were to trade down and we could easily pickup an extra 2nd and 3rd in the process. If Zaven Collins is gone before we pick, I think a trade down here is even more desirable. Boogie in my mind will put up double digit sacks multiple times over his career and would be a plug n play player at LE.

 

Stay put:

Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa

This is my ideal scenario for staying put at #30. Collins can play at DE, OLB and MIKE. Big enough to take on offensive linemen, can shed blocks and disengage well. Very powerful, maybe not overly fast or quick but has underrated athleticism. Very smart player who would thrive in zone coverage because of his awareness and intellect but probably not a guy you’d want to see drop back in man. Once again, his understanding and awareness makes him deadly in coverage. More often than not he is where he needs to be and because of stellar instincts he makes up for not being necessarily the most explosive or athletic athlete. 
 

There you have it folks, who you got?

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