jwhit34 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 You are just realizing this now...... im a professional data scientist. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billznut Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 4 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. So what is the alternative? Passer rating can be just as misleading. Bottom line is Allen was a top 3 QB in QBR this year and I think top 5 in passer rating too. If both metrics say the guy is top 5 then I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Kevi Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 QBR was created to make game manager QBs seem as good as pocket passers. Kind of crazy people still take it (semi)seriously. The beauty of what you just put together is that there is no reasonable argument against your point. At least not that I can come up with... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just now, Billznut said: Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. Exactly. I know passer rating has some flaws, but it matches what I see with my eyes and what I expect when looking at stats FAR more accurately than QBR. Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: So what is the alternative? Passer rating can be just as misleading. Bottom line is Allen was a top 3 QB in QBR this year and I think top 5 in passer rating too. If both metrics say the guy is top 5 then I'll take it. I don't really think passer rating is misleading unless you have a very small sample size, like a guy who comes in for one or two passes in relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, Heavy Kevi said: QBR was created to make game manager QBs seem as good as pocket passers. Kind of crazy people still take it (semi)seriously. The beauty of what you just put together is that there is no reasonable argument against your point. At least not that I can come up with... The top three QB's in QBR this year were Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen. Watson wasn't even in the top 6 or 7 in QBR I don't think. But he was well ahead of Allen in passer rating with like 112 rating I think? Both have their issues, but I don't think QBR is nearly as bad as a lot make it out to be. I definitely think it is better than just passer rating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, MJS said: Exactly. I know passer rating has some flaws, but it matches what I see with my eyes and what I expect when looking at stats FAR more accurately than QBR. I don't really think passer rating is misleading unless you have a very small sample size, like a guy who comes in for one or two passes in relief. QBR by espn is seriously flawed. I understand what it’s trying to do but situations are too subjective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malazan Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: So what is the alternative? The alternative is for people to stop getting upset when made up numbers that couldn't possibly encapsulate the overall performance of a player don't reflect what they think they should.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
InEnemyTerritory Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Football players, especially quarterbacks, cannot be explained in easily digestible numbers. There's no WAR for football because everyone on the field - 22 people - have an impact on the play. Allen getting a 50 or a 0 or a 100 is irrelevant IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 It goes both ways too. Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LABILLBACKER Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 7 minutes ago, Billznut said: Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. The QBR and PFF formulas are garbage. Qb rating isn't perfect but it's the best indicator of performance there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: The top three QB's in QBR this year were Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen. Watson wasn't even in the top 6 or 7 in QBR I don't think. But he was well ahead of Allen in passer rating with like 112 rating I think? Both have their issues, but I don't think QBR is nearly as bad as a lot make it out to be. I definitely think it is better than just passer rating. traditional passer rating is an objective measure not a subjective one...big difference. any formula you try to make can have some situational loophole. in traditional passer rating if you play for a primary running team and only pass when behind or on 3rd and long you are likely going to have higher completion and yard averages playing against soft defenses that are bend don’t break. Since it’s also a TD per arrempt rate it can try to normalized teams that throw much more vs those that don’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, djp14150 said: traditional passer rating is an objective measure not a subjective one...big difference. any formula you try to make can have some situational loophole. in traditional passer rating if you play for a primary running team and only pass when behind or on 3rd and long you are likely going to have higher completion and yard averages playing against soft defenses that are bend don’t break. Since it’s also a TD per arrempt rate it can try to normalized teams that throw much more vs those that don’t. Agreed. I just don't get the outrage about QBR. Remove Watson and the top three in QBR are also the top three in passer rating this last year. And logically, it would make sense that a QB of a 4-12 team would not have as high a QBR as the other three despite having a 112 passer rating. To me that is strong evidence that QBR got it right. At least in the case of Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen vs. Watson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: It goes both ways too. Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with tha that is the kind of thing you can modify in traditional passer rating such as whose fault was the interception. You could just look at yards on the throw and separate YAC, but credit expected comp,etions where the fault was on the re receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 18 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: It goes both ways too. Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with tha that is the kind of thing you can modify in traditional passer rating such as whose fault was the interception. You could just look at yards on the throw and separate YAC, but credit expected comp,etions where the fault was on the re receiver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloButt Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 32 minutes ago, jwhit34 said: Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. FQBR. Allen RULES!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djp14150 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Agreed. I just don't get the outrage about QBR. Remove Watson and the top three in QBR are also the top three in passer rating this last year. And logically, it would make sense that a QB of a 4-12 team would not have as high a QBR as the other three despite having a 112 passer rating. To me that is strong evidence that QBR got it right. At least in the case of Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen vs. Watson. houston lost 8 1-score games. A few plays in those loses could have been wins and they were in a playoff race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 1 minute ago, djp14150 said: houston lost 8 1-score games. A few plays in those loses could have been wins and they were in a playoff race. Correct. So you are suggesting Watson took bad sacks or made poor throws in those one score games that lowered his QBR? That would seem fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan in Cleveland Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 Just watch the games and judge for yourself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurman#1 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 You're referring to the ESPN stat, QBR? Yeah, it has some kind of unexplainable foibles, and since it's opaque, nobody can explain why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 QBR has always been utter trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CuseBill Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 63.2% of all statistics are totally useless. Seriously, who cares about statistical ratings. Winning games is all that matters and that is what Josh knows how to do. What was Jim McMahon's passer rating with the '85 Bears? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddo Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I liked the idea behind QBR, but it has never seemed to me to consistently pass the eye test. I've watched far too many games where it simply doesn't stack up to what I've seen from the QBs in a game. I think that passer rating still has an edge, if you decide to 'play' with it a little, if you want to figure out why it isn't quite stacking up to a performance you thought was better, or worse, than it shows. Taking away an interception that should have been caught by a WR, for example, or maybe adding one in that a defender should have had, is probably going to give you a better reflection overall. While that is subjective, it's only one thing that is subjective, not a bunch of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orlando Tim Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 6 hours ago, jwhit34 said: Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games: BIlls vs. Colts Comp Att Comp % Yds Yds/Att TD Int Rush Yds TD QBR Allen 26 35 74% 324 9.3 3 0 11 54 1 85.0 Rivers 27 46 59% 309 6.7 2 0 1 -1 0 92.1 Bills vs. Ravens Allen 23 37 62% 206 5.6 1 0 7 3 0 51.0 Jackson 14 24 58% 162 6.8 0 1 9 34 0 55.6 Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. I understand that QBR takes into account down and distance, and chance of winning game but I will have to agree these two show that QBR has a major flaw if Josh was worse than either of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock'em Sock'em Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, jwhit34 said: It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this. Wow, I figured all along that QBR was based on stats. In both games, Allen was facing the statistically better defense. In both games, Allen has little help from the running game and the opposing RBs were solid contributors. Rivers was facing a game plan specifically designed to stop the RBs. To Jackson's credit, our defensive game plan was mostly to stop him from running, but that opens up passing stats. Both games were close into the 4th quarter. In both games Allen outplayed his counterpart. It turns out that QBR is quite subjective and based also on the inverse of awesomeness of your quarterback, or more appropriately the protection afforded to you by your offense line. From Wikipedia: Each QB "action play" (passes, rushes, sacks, scrambles, or penalties attributable to the QB) is measured in terms of the expected points added (EPA) Adjust for the difficulty of each play. EPA is adjusted based on the type and depth of a pass, and whether the QB was pressured. If there is a completion, he only is credited for the typical number of yards after the catch (passer rating takes all yards into effect) based on the type and depth of the pass There is a discount on garbage time, or a time where the score is out of reach near the end of the game. Opponent adjustment: More credit is given with tougher defenses and vice versa. QBR averages the adjusted EPA per play and transforms it to a 0 to 100 scale, with 50 being average. Edited January 17, 2021 by Rock'em Sock'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albany,n.y. Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 I've never liked QB stats of any kind. There are just too many variables that take place on the field to properly judge a QB by any type of rating. I'll just give one example: Two teams, one has a bruiser RB, the other has a great TE. Team 1 drives down the field and in goal to go situations gives it to the RB to score TDs. Team 2 passes to their TE for their goal to go TDs. Both teams score a lot, but team 2's QB has a better rating because he throws a lot more TD passes than team 1's QB even though they may be equal in driving the ball down the field and both give their team an equal chance of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan1959 Posted January 17, 2021 Share Posted January 17, 2021 All I know is Allen is 6-0 against top ten defenses (DVOA) this year and 9-0 against top 15 defenses (DVOA), and 8-0 against top 10 passing defenses (DVOA). Good enough for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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