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QBR - Bills 2 Playoff Games Show How Flawed It Is


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Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games:

 

BIlls vs. Colts                           Comp     Att     Comp %        Yds          Yds/Att      TD         Int        Rush       Yds       TD             QBR

Allen                                         26        35         74%         324             9.3         3          0            11         54        1             85.0

Rivers                                       27        46         59%         309             6.7         2          0              1         -1         0            92.1 

 

Bills vs. Ravens

Allen                                         23        37          62%         206             5.6        1          0              7          3         0             51.0

Jackson                                    14        24          58%         162             6.8        0          1              9         34        0             55.6

 

Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). 

 

It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.  

 

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3 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games:

 

BIlls vs. Colts                           Comp     Att     Comp %        Yds          Yds/Att      TD         Int        Rush       Yds       TD             QBR

Allen                                         26        35         74%         324             9.3         3          0            11         54        1             85.0

Rivers                                       27        46         59%         309             6.7         2          0              1         -1         0            92.1 

 

Bills vs. Ravens

Allen                                         23        37          62%         206             5.6        1          0              7          3         0             51.0

Jackson                                    14        24          58%         162             6.8        0          1              9         34        0             55.6

 

Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). 

 

It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.  

 

Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. 

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4 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games:

 

BIlls vs. Colts                           Comp     Att     Comp %        Yds          Yds/Att      TD         Int        Rush       Yds       TD             QBR

Allen                                         26        35         74%         324             9.3         3          0            11         54        1             85.0

Rivers                                       27        46         59%         309             6.7         2          0              1         -1         0            92.1 

 

Bills vs. Ravens

Allen                                         23        37          62%         206             5.6        1          0              7          3         0             51.0

Jackson                                    14        24          58%         162             6.8        0          1              9         34        0             55.6

 

Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). 

 

It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.  

 

 

So what is the alternative? Passer rating can be just as misleading. Bottom line is Allen was a top 3 QB in QBR this year and I think top 5 in passer rating too. If both metrics say the guy is top 5 then I'll take it.

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QBR was created to make game manager QBs seem as good as pocket passers.

 

Kind of crazy people still take it (semi)seriously.

 

The beauty of what you just put together is that there is no reasonable argument against your point. At least not that I can come up with...

 

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Just now, Billznut said:

Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. 

Exactly. I know passer rating has some flaws, but it matches what I see with my eyes and what I expect when looking at stats FAR more accurately than QBR.

Just now, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

So what is the alternative? Passer rating can be just as misleading. Bottom line is Allen was a top 3 QB in QBR this year and I think top 5 in passer rating too. If both metrics say the guy is top 5 then I'll take it.

I don't really think passer rating is misleading unless you have a very small sample size, like a guy who comes in for one or two passes in relief.

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1 minute ago, Heavy Kevi said:

QBR was created to make game manager QBs seem as good as pocket passers.

 

Kind of crazy people still take it (semi)seriously.

 

The beauty of what you just put together is that there is no reasonable argument against your point. At least not that I can come up with...

 

 

The top three QB's in QBR this year were Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen. 

 

Watson wasn't even in the top 6 or 7 in QBR I don't think. But he was well ahead of Allen in passer rating with like 112 rating I think? 

 

Both have their issues, but I don't think QBR is nearly as bad as a lot make it out to be. I definitely think it is better than just passer rating.

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1 minute ago, MJS said:

Exactly. I know passer rating has some flaws, but it matches what I see with my eyes and what I expect when looking at stats FAR more accurately than QBR.

I don't really think passer rating is misleading unless you have a very small sample size, like a guy who comes in for one or two passes in relief.


 

QBR by espn is seriously flawed.  I understand what it’s trying to do but situations are too subjective.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

So what is the alternative? 

 

The alternative is for people to stop getting upset when made up numbers that couldn't possibly encapsulate the overall performance of a player don't reflect what they think they should..

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Football players, especially quarterbacks, cannot be explained in easily digestible numbers.  There's no WAR for football because everyone on the field - 22 people - have an impact on the play.  Allen getting a 50 or a 0 or a 100 is irrelevant IMO

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It goes both ways too.

 

Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with that.

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7 minutes ago, Billznut said:

Allen’s QB rating was way higher than Rivers or Jackson’s. So that was accurate. QBR is a ESPN invention. That’s all you need to know about how useless it is. 

The QBR and PFF formulas are garbage. Qb rating isn't perfect but it's the best indicator of performance there is.

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3 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

The top three QB's in QBR this year were Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen. 

 

Watson wasn't even in the top 6 or 7 in QBR I don't think. But he was well ahead of Allen in passer rating with like 112 rating I think? 

 

Both have their issues, but I don't think QBR is nearly as bad as a lot make it out to be. I definitely think it is better than just passer rating.


traditional passer rating is an objective measure not a subjective one...big difference.

 

any formula you try to make can have some situational loophole.  
 

in traditional passer rating if you play for a primary running team and only pass when behind or on 3rd and long you are likely going to have  higher completion and yard averages playing against soft defenses that are bend don’t break.  Since it’s also a TD per arrempt rate it can try to normalized teams that throw much more vs those that don’t.

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1 minute ago, djp14150 said:


traditional passer rating is an objective measure not a subjective one...big difference.

 

any formula you try to make can have some situational loophole.  
 

in traditional passer rating if you play for a primary running team and only pass when behind or on 3rd and long you are likely going to have  higher completion and yard averages playing against soft defenses that are bend don’t break.  Since it’s also a TD per arrempt rate it can try to normalized teams that throw much more vs those that don’t.

 

Agreed. 

 

I just don't get the outrage about QBR. Remove Watson and the top three in QBR are also the top three in passer rating this last year. And logically, it would make sense that a QB of a 4-12 team would not have as high a QBR as the other three despite having a 112 passer rating. To me that is strong evidence that QBR got it right. At least in the case of Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen vs. Watson.

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5 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

It goes both ways too.

 

Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with tha

 

that is the kind of thing you can modify in traditional passer rating such as whose fault was the interception. You could just look at yards on the throw and separate YAC, but credit expected comp,etions where the fault was on the re receiver. 

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18 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

It goes both ways too.

 

Go back and look at Allen's box score in the Titans game. His higher QBR in that game was more accurate to the eye ball test compared to the poor passer rating he had for the game. Obviously the pick off of Roberts hands had a lot to do with tha

 

that is the kind of thing you can modify in traditional passer rating such as whose fault was the interception. You could just look at yards on the throw and separate YAC, but credit expected comp,etions where the fault was on the re receiver. 

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32 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Here are the QB stat lines for the Bills 2 playoff games:

 

BIlls vs. Colts                           Comp     Att     Comp %        Yds          Yds/Att      TD         Int        Rush       Yds       TD             QBR

Allen                                         26        35         74%         324             9.3         3          0            11         54        1             85.0

Rivers                                       27        46         59%         309             6.7         2          0              1         -1         0            92.1 

 

Bills vs. Ravens

Allen                                         23        37          62%         206             5.6        1          0              7          3         0             51.0

Jackson                                    14        24          58%         162             6.8        0          1              9         34        0             55.6

 

Not only are Allen's stats better in both games, does anyone watching either game, based solely on what they saw, conclude Rivers and/or Jackson outplayed Allen? No way. In the Colts game, Allen is superior in every statistical category and vs. the Ravens the only stat that Jackson's better is yards per attempt (and more rushing yards). 

 

It is really hard to take QBR seriously with ratings like this.  

 

FQBR.

Allen RULES!!!!

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13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Agreed. 

 

I just don't get the outrage about QBR. Remove Watson and the top three in QBR are also the top three in passer rating this last year. And logically, it would make sense that a QB of a 4-12 team would not have as high a QBR as the other three despite having a 112 passer rating. To me that is strong evidence that QBR got it right. At least in the case of Rodgers, Mahomes and Allen vs. Watson.


houston lost 8 1-score games.  A few plays in those loses could have been wins and they were in a playoff race.

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1 minute ago, djp14150 said:


houston lost 8 1-score games.  A few plays in those loses could have been wins and they were in a playoff race.

 

Correct. So you are suggesting Watson took bad sacks or made poor throws in those one score games that lowered his QBR? That would seem fair.

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