2020 MVP Race - Has Mahomes been incredibly lucky?

[Scott7975]

25 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

I'm getting a kick laughing at some of these posts lol.. Unless Rodgers throws 3-4 INT and a 200 yard game next week, Josh has little chance.

 

Right now the race is easy

 

#1 Rodgers

#3 Tie. Mahomes and Allen.

 

Why?  I think most people feel Rodgers will get it and he probably will.  That doesn't mean people can't talk about Allen getting it.  IMO the fact that he is in the conversation with Aaron Rodgers and Mahomes should make you feel good, not crack up laughing at other people excited about our QB.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

56 minutes ago, wjag said:

 

The nerve of him.  No respect for his juniors..

 

LOL. It was a heck of TD run for a linebacker summoning his former HS days. That play and the others it took a miracle for Allen to not have six TD's last week. 

[BullBuchanan]

Allen at +1800, so it looks about over. That said, I'd gladly drop $50 on this if my book had MVP bets.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-odds-after-big-week-16-aaron-rodgers-is-now-the-betting-favorite-to-win-mvp-144528719.html

[Mr. WEO]

3 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He doesn't need to match or surpass Rodgers in total TD's.  Multiple factors are always considered. Some swing in Rodgers favor, some in Allen's favor. That said, he does need to be close. So yeah he likely needs about 8 to finish the season to stay realistically in the conversation and with in a few TD's of Rodgers. And consider if he puts up 8 over the next two games that means he has at least 5 conference player of the week awards, if not 6. 

 

Allen needs a huge game tonight. At least 4 TD's but 5 or 6 would be ideal. 

 

Couple of things are just really hurting Allen. 

 

1. The Hail Murray. If the Bills could finish 14-2 and better than the Packers that would have been huge. Also, the narrative that Monday morning would have been about Josh Allen as a legitimate MVP candidate. Instead the talk was all about Murray.

 

2. The Broncos game could have easily been a six TD game for Allen but he didn't get the breaks. Multple TD's called back on penalty on one series. Zach Moss given a bad spot and turn over on downs in another series. Jerry Huges scores a TD instead of getting tackled around the goal line. 

 

Zero TD drives against the Jets hurt.

[HalftimeAdjustment]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

Why?  There is certainly no significant statistical difference between their seasons.  So what is it that makes you so convinced that Rodgers deserves to win the MVP over Josh Allen?  Have you just been listening to Chris Collinsworth too much? 

 

Rodgers has fewer TOs by a decent amount. He is very slightly ahead in completion % as well as YPA and total TDs (even adding rushing and receiving TDs). The term "significant" is in the eye of the beholder, but at this point Rodgers' stats are slightly better. I didn't say it was not a close call.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

The cards just aren't falling in Allen's favor this year. It's like Rodgers is destined to win it.

 

Hail Murray.

Two called back TD's against the Jets 

4 TD's last week when he easily could have had 5 or 6 

Two in this first half when he is a TD drop away from having 3 in the half.

[DuckyBoys]

well one can argue the Packers have played a chump schedule. 

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, BuffalOhio said:

I don't want Josh to win MVP.  I'm glad he's in the race, but if he wins MVP before his next contract, what will said contract look like?

 

I'd rather he win it AFTER his next contract.

 

 

 

 

Now, this makes some sense, but honestly, I don't think winning MVP is going to cost all that much more than being in the top five of the MVP discussion two or three years in a row. But I hear you.

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, DuckyBoys said:

well one can argue the Packers have played a chump schedule. 

 

Bills definitely have more quality wins. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

15 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

Rodgers should get it at this point. That does not take away from the great season Allen has had; it's just that I believe Rodgers deserves this specific award. I'd like to see Josh continue to drive up our Win/Loss record. And, let's see him maintain this kind of performance level; if he does, he will win the MVP in the future when it is warranted.

I would argue that josh allen alone deserves this specific award but mvp has now become synonymous with 'stat sheet stuffing' allen just straight up carried this team week in and week out with no running game or defense for at least half the season making nearly impossible plays look routine.  Josh won't win it...but it honestly says more about the award in general than it says about him 

[wjag]

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

[Forward Progress]

I am willing to concede the League MVP award to Rodgers, while accepting the Superbowl MVP to Josh Allen as a consolation prize.

[Big Turk]

On 12/28/2020 at 2:28 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

I'm getting a kick laughing at some of these posts lol.. Unless Rodgers throws 3-4 INT and a 200 yard game next week, Josh has little chance.

 

Right now the race is easy

 

#1 Rodgers

#3 Tie. Mahomes and Allen.

 

Rodgers has done it against basically competition like your little brother and his friends out in the backyard playing a cupcake 31st toughest schedule. Allen has played the 4th toughest. 8 top 12 pass Defenses including 1, 2 and 4 for Allen and Rodgers only faced 1(#5 Saints).

 

Why isn't this taken into consideration.

[scribo]

Patty and his lucky charms.

[CincyBillsFan]

On 12/28/2020 at 5:40 PM, Mr. WEO said:

 

Zero TD drives against the Jets hurt.

 

Why would that hurt any more then KC only scoring 17 points on the Falcons?

 

 

2 hours ago, wjag said:

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

 

I'm assuming he would do this in the first half as there is no way he's seeing the field in the 2nd half.

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

50 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rodgers has done it against basically competition like your little brother and his friends out in the backyard playing a cupcake 31st toughest schedule. Allen has played the 4th toughest. 8 top 12 pass Defenses including 1, 2 and 4 for Allen and Rodgers only faced 1(#5 Saints).

 

Why isn't this taken into consideration.

He's in the consideration. that's why everyone including me has him top 3.. maybe even in better shape after that last game. I have never said he's not in consideration.... but to conclude that he should be the definite winner is silliness 

[{::'KayCeeS::}]

Rodgers winning is the only acceptable alternative to Allen winning.  I think that's a fair statement.  No one can convince me Mahomes deserves it over those two.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

Why would that hurt any more then KC only scoring 17 points on the Falcons?

 

 

 

 

 

 

1)  Mahomes threw 2 TDs in that game--including the game winner at the end of the game.

 

2) This was the second time in the season that the Bills faced the awful Jets.

 

3) No other team was kept out of the EZ by the Jets D (Fitzy threw 3 TDs the week before vs Jets)

 

4) Mahomes, the very next week, put up this stat line vs those same Jets:  31/42 for 414 yards, 5 TDs.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, PrimeTime101 said:

He's in the consideration. that's why everyone including me has him top 3.. maybe even in better shape after that last game. I have never said he's not in consideration.... but to conclude that he should be the definite winner is silliness 

 

Not saying he should definitely win...most people add him as an also ran...I think he should be more like a coin flip.

 

Rodgers has played great but against easy opponents. Allen has played the gauntlet of top 12 pass defenses and his numbers are astounding.

 

Against the 3 teams that have allowed the fewest passing TDs in the NFL...Rams(16), Dolphins(17), Patriots(21), Allen has posted a 4 passing TD game against all 4...25% of the Rams passing TDs allowed this year were by Allen, 23% of the Fins...that is kinda crazy to think of.

7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

1)  Mahomes threw 2 TDs in that game--including the game winner at the end of the game.

 

2) This was the second time in the season that the Bills faced the awful Jets.

 

3) No other team was kept out of the EZ by the Jets D (Fitzy threw 3 TDs the week before vs Jets)

 

4) Mahomes, the very next week, put up this stat line vs those same Jets:  31/42 for 414 yards, 5 TDs.

 

The Bills never punted in that Jet game and rolled up well over 400 yards of offense. Bills are #1 team on 3rd down conversions, have the fewest punts in the NFL and are #2 in the NFL in points scored per drive with 2.96 to GB's 3.15. Bills are 20th in Turnovers per drive while GB is #1...imagine if the Bills didn't have that many turnovers how many points they would have scored. They would be #1 by a huge margin.

 

All against the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL. Mahomes played the 20th toughest schedule, Rodgers the 31st toughest.

 

Mahomes QB rating in December? 89. Allen's? 116. Allen is peaking while Mahomes is falling off. Mahomes also has 18 dropped INTs this year, by far the most in the NFL. That is just pure luck. If he even had an average number he wouldn't even be in the MVP discussion.

 

Level of competition should matter.

Edited January 1, 2021 by Big Turk

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

3 hours ago, wjag said:

Could Josh be a dark horse candidate for the MVP race this weekend?  I know the consensus is it's Aarons...  But what if...

 

Consider this argument:

 

MyMahomey is staying home for week 17.

Rodgers just lost his all-world LT and needs to face a hungry Bears team wanting a playoff berth.  What if Rodgers stubs his toe against the Bears and..

 

Josh balls out against the Dolphins to secure the number 2 seed.  What if Josh puts up something like 250 and 3 TDS in a win?

 

Would that, could that, should that do it?

 

Allen's problem is that he isn't even being talked about as a close #2 in the race right now. I know Cowherd has brought him up as just slightly behind Rodgers and well ahead of Mahomes but other than him it feels like very few have it ranked Rodgers, Allen, Mahomes right now. Rodgers deserves to win it, as does Allen. It really should be a co-MVP this year but I don't see it happening just from what we are hearing heading into week 17. I'm also skeptical that Allen will play much against the Dolphins.