Week 8: Patriots at Bills

[YoloinOhio]

 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Gene1973 said:

Yes, as in if he ever had a multiple score lead he would not "play to win" like Brady & Belichick used to. 

Oh boy

So when Buffalo was leading the Rams 28-3 in week 3, did the offense stop trying to score? Did they stop throwing?

[YoloinOhio]

Interesting read on how the Niners used the pats coverage against them:

Everyone knows the Patriots are a predominant man coverage team. How’s Shanahan use the Patriots coverage against them? By running the receivers off and using Deebo Samuel as an outlet wideout underneath.

 

Samuel’s first reception was a simple swing pass out of the backfield that went for 23 yards. There was no New England defender near him, thanks to Shanahan’s design. Three plays later, Shanahan runs “four verticals,” but uses Jeff Wilson Jr. as one of the vertical routes. This leaves Samuel underneath with a player wearing No. 51 to guard him. In a surprise to nobody, Samuel beats the linebacker to the edge and picks up 14 yards.

That was on the first drive of the game. The 49ers motion created bigger throwing lanes for Garoppolo. Kyle leaned on play-action more than ever. The 49ers either ran by design or used play-action on 51 of their 63 offensive plays (81%), their highest percentage of such plays in a game since ESPN began tracking in 2008, and the highest for any team in a game this season.

Garoppolo went 6-for-7 over the intermediate portion of the field for 100 yards. 

https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/10/26/21533889/four-takeaways-from-the-49ers-blowout-win-over-the-patriots-bully-ball-is-back

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, YoloinOhio said:

Interesting read on how the Niners used the pats coverage against them:

 

 

https://www.ninersnation.com/2020/10/26/21533889/four-takeaways-from-the-49ers-blowout-win-over-the-patriots-bully-ball-is-back

I freakin dare them to play man against us...that’s a bet I’ll take all day long.

Just now, Gene1973 said:

No, McVay made adjustments McDermott could not handle on defense... Not sure what is so hard to understand here tbh.

 

I'm truly confounded by how you would bring up the Rams game it the context of running up the score? Does not compute.

Wait, what?

 

You specifically said that the Bills under McDermott would stop trying to score when they get a lead, and now you’re saying that you don’t understand why I’m asking what the offensive play calling was like when they had a 28-3 lead this year?

 

Really?

 

Either you totally lost track of the discussion or you’re messing with me...

[Dablitzkrieg]

Jeff Garcia goes off on Cam Newton 😂😂😂

 

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

Sell out defending the run and stick white on Edelman all game. 

[teef]

1 minute ago, High Football IQ said:

 

Historical data and trends matter especially against a team we haven't beaten at home in 9 years.

 

Pats are the proverbial wounded animal and in a dangerous spot right now and we are simply catching them at the wrong time on the schedule sadly.

Did the bills lose already?

[Deadstroke]

1 hour ago, BillsEnthusiast said:

 

Exactly. Like they teach in journalism school: once is nothing, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. 

Or as Goldfinger said:

Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it’s enemy action.

 

[thebandit27]

19 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

The Bills scored to make it 28-3 then the Rams started scoring like mad, when was there ever a time the Bills had a chance to run up the score late in the game like the Pats used to? I don't get it man... 

 

Belichick and Brady for a while there made it a habit to keep throwing the ball to the very end eventhough they were creaming an opponent, that is "running up the score". Or as Belichick used to call it "playing to win". The Rams game in this scenario makes zero sense...

The Bills were up 28-10 and Allen was heaving deep throws—including the one that Kroft caught that was somehow deemed an INT.

 

Your original point was that “McConservative” won’t try to run up the score, but instead simply play to protect a lead if his team ever (hypothetically) got a 2-score lead.

[Royale with Cheese]

33 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

No, McVay made adjustments McDermott could not handle on defense... Not sure what is so hard to understand here tbh.

 

I'm truly confounded by how you would bring up the Rams game it the context of running up the score? Does not compute.

 

Gene...you're not keeping up.

 

We were up by 17 points.  We threw the ball downfield to Kroft who catches it but the refs gave the INT to the Rams.  How is it conservative throwing downfield up by 17?

 

We were up 21-3 on the Jets in week 1 and were still going aggressive on offense.  Allen just turned the ball over twice in the redzone.  That's not on McDermott.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

4 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Sell out defending the run and stick white on Edelman all game. 

Agreed, think that's the ideal plan on defense. The one thing I will add to that is having a spy on Newton who is still a threat to run especially this year when he doesn't look comfortable throwing the ball. We need to take away Edelman and force Cam to beat us with his arm. 

 

From a personnel standpoint, I thought Vernon Butler has stepped up and begun to take over that 1-Tech role over the past couple games which is great to see (Zimmer has been good there at times as well). This is awesome for our defense for two reasons: 1) those guys provide more size and run stuff ability in the middle and 2) it allows Ed Oliver to play 3-Tech which is where he belongs and he can penetrate and blow up plays. I've seen a few people getting on Oliver's case this year, but other than a few games where he clearly wasn't healthy, I think he's had an excellent second season so far. His impact goes far beyond the stat sheet and I think more production is coming. 

 

I also like the juice that some of the younger guys have brought to the defense in recent weeks. Excited to see more from Epenesa, Zimmer, Dane Jackson, etc. 

 

Lastly, moving Jerry Hughes back to the LDE spot where he has played in past seasons has provided big returns already. Addison usually plays on the left too and started the season there, but I like the matchup of Hughes' speed and bend versus the opponents' right tackle more. 

 

I'm cautiously optimistic about our defense this week. Just hoping that Josh and our offense can level up over our past performances vs NE. 

[Warcodered]

 

[Comebackkid]

When is the last time the pats beat us without Brady under center? 

[YoloinOhio]

1 minute ago, Comebackkid said:

When is the last time the pats beat us without Brady under center? 

 Cassel in 2008 I think 

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Comebackkid said:

When is the last time the pats beat us without Brady under center? 

I think it was the Matt Cassel game in Buffalo where there were 50 MPH winds. The Pats****** played with 7 OLmen all game and we lined up in a nickel 😂

 

Without looking I believe we lost 10-0

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Both teams kind of suck right now. The Pats suck worse, so I'll take the Bills. Wouldn't bet my house on it though.

[thebandit27]

Just now, Tuel Time said:

Both teams kind of suck right now. The Pats suck worse, so I'll take the Bills. Wouldn't bet my house on it though.

Both team kind of suck? The Bills are 4-2 with losses to 2 of the top 6 teams in football.

Edited October 26, 2020 by thebandit27

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Both team kind of suck? The Bills are 4-2 with losses to 2 of the top 6 teams in football.

 

Yes they do. They've been playing poorly. Have you not been watching?

 

I said "right now". And anyone who watched the last 3 games would need to agree.

[Comebackkid]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

I think it was the Matt Cassel game in Buffalo where there were 50 MPH winds. The Pats****** played with 7 OLmen all game and we lined up in a nickel 😂

 

Without looking I believe we lost 10-0

Good memory, I remember the one time Brady missed a game and we shut them out but I have no idea what year that was.

[corta765]

4 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

Newton's throwing motion looks like it did last season when he was playing with a right shoulder injury.  Maybe all the running in the first few weeks has him injured again.  He was routinely bouncing passes in front of open receivers.  Nothing about his performance yesterday has me worried about the upcoming game.  The only thing that bothers me right now is Dabol's play selection in the red zone. Beasley was open at the goal line repeatedly with no targets. Running Singletary into the weak side of the formation with no lead block failed repeatedly also. It was one of his worse games as a play caller.  Hopefully, he sees the need to change things up to play Bellicheat.

 

This times a million. They hit the Jets RZ and then forgot about Beasley who has been eating teams in the middle which drove me crazy.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Tuel Time said:

 

Yes they do. They've been playing poorly. Have you not been watching?

 

I said "right now". And anyone who watched the last 3 games would need to agree.

 

Yes, I watch every NFL game every week...and I don’t agree with you.
 

Just now, Gene1973 said:

I didn't realize so many NFL fans don't know what constitutes "running up the score"... 

 

Gene, if you need me to quote your post I’ll do so...

[RiotAct]

33 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

Sell out defending the run and stick white on Edelman all game. 

yep.  Against  Brady that would be a disaster, but with Cam back there that might be the winning game plan on defense.  Just have a sick feeling that the Bills will beat themselves this game.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Gene1973 said:

Yes, as in if he ever had a multiple score lead he would not "play to win" like Brady & Belichick used to. 

Oh boy

^ this is what you said

 

Example of multiple score lead: Rams game. Absolutely played to win.

 

What is the source of confusion here?

Edited October 26, 2020 by thebandit27

[RiotAct]

5 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Both team kind of suck? The Bills are 4-2 with losses to 2 of the top 6 teams in football.

5-2

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

Yes, I watch every NFL game every week...and I don’t agree with you.
 

 

Well, I was pretty disappointed in their play the last 3 games. There are a few bright spots, but man, I don't consider myself a harsh critic and I'll tell you they've sucked lol.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, RiotAct said:

yep.  Against  Brady that would be a disaster, but with Cam back there that might be the winning game plan on defense.  Just have a sick feeling that the Bills will beat themselves this game.

Don’t play man against Cam—that’s one thing he can beat. He’ll run and create offense with some matchups. Zone him; he isn’t going to pick you apart

1 minute ago, Tuel Time said:

 

Well, I was pretty disappointed in their play the last 3 games. There are a few bright spots, but man, I don't consider myself a harsh critic and I'll tell you they've sucked lol.

Hey I’ll call them bad when they’re bad. No issue with that... but to compare Buffalo’s relative suckitude to NE’s****** in losing 4 straight is misguided IMO.

[BritBill]

Gonna be some disappointed Bills fans when a victory arrives next Sunday. 

[thebandit27]

Just now, Gene1973 said:

"Running up the score occurs when a competitor continues to play in such a way as to score additional points after the outcome of the game is no longer in significant question and the team is all but assured of winning."

 

Can't believe I had to post a definition of this on an NFL forum...

Dude...read your own posts...

[Comebackkid]

I would like for once for the bills to have a plan A and a Plan B for the Pats. Seems like we always come out ready to defend one thing bellicheck flips the script and the bills have no clue what to do after that

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Could this be the first game since Week 1 where both Edmunds and Milano are mostly healthy? Maybe 75+%? If so, that's a huge boost to our defense as well. 

 

Getting out of the Jets game (I know they are bad, but their defense plays extremely physical. Always hit hard and play to and through the whistle) without any major injuries *that we know of (knocks on wood)* was huge for this team. Hopefully we can return some of the guys on offense too (get well Smoke!).

[corta765]

3 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

Belichick iw now something like 43-61 when Brady isnt his starting QB.   No clue what happens Sunday as I dont think the Bills are world beaters but Kraft looks to have kept the wrong guy.

 

Yep thats pretty much accurate record wise. More or less without Brady he is a .500 coach. I don't blame BB for the last season in CLE and the record they had the move of the team blew everything to bits it was full on chaos. It is interesting because in terms of longevity only Don Shula really went a run like this and he missed at points the playoffs.

[TBBills Fan]

4 hours ago, zow2 said:

Of course we get NE coming off two brutal home losses.  Like they won’t be super motivated to get things right.  

 

But seeing as the Bills have lost a zillion games to NE and McDermott hasn’t beaten the hoodie, Buffalo’s motivation to win should trump anything from the Pats side. They’ve been our daddy for way too long.  i want to see a pummeling 

 

Belly boy owes me some child support then

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Gene1973 said:

Dude, I thought you knew what running up the score meant, my bad. Time left in the game plays a part un running up the score...

 

In any event, McDermott is not and has never been a run up the svore coach, he's a run the ball milk the play clock kind of coach.

Youre missing the examples.  After being up multiple scores in both Rams and Jets games we did not just run the ball and play conservative.  We threw the ball a lot still in both those cases.  That is the point everyone is trying to make.

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

Dude, I thought you knew what running up the score meant, my bad. Time left in the game plays a part un running up the score...

 

In any event, McDermott is not and has never been a run up the svore coach, he's a run the ball milk the play clock kind of coach.

Please...you specifically spelled out what you meant...

 

1 hour ago, Gene1973 said:

I think you are confusing putting a game away vs. running up the score... See some of the old Bills Pats games, 56-10 etc...

 

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

you called out the coach for being too conservative

 

1 hour ago, Gene1973 said:

Yes, as in if he ever had a multiple score lead he would not "play to win" like Brady & Belichick used to. 

Oh boy

If you didn’t mean that they’d get too conservative with a multiple score lead, then you defined it poorly, so needling me as though I don’t know what running up the score means is silly given the context of the discussion.

 

And under either definition, you’re mistaken.

[wjag]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

I don't remember any Bills get hurting yesterday.  Am I misremembering?  Meanwhile Thuney went down for the Pats.  Another big hit on their O-line.  And I think I heard in the game that N'Keal Harry was out for concussion evaluation.

Edited October 26, 2020 by wjag
biwt

[WideNine]

19 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Don’t play man against Cam—that’s one thing he can beat. He’ll run and create offense with some matchups. Zone him; he isn’t going to pick you apart

Hey I’ll call them bad when they’re bad. No issue with that... but to compare Buffalo’s relative suckitude to NE’s****** in losing 4 straight is misguided IMO.

 

Correct. The 2-deep shell and you play him the same way teams play Allen. 

 

If I know ol' Bill, he is going to dial up plenty of runs to attack our suspect front and work the TOP to keep the game close.

 

He knows a frustrated Allen is a beatable Allen.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

12 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

And everyone is missing the fact that running up the score occurs after the outcome is assured. Like throwing to the endzone on 4th and 7 with 3:12 left in a game when you're up 33-6 instead of kicking a FG.

 

Someone made the comment they want the Bills to run the score up on the Pats, my response is that would never happen because McDermott. Then all hell broke lose with people who wanted to fight but didn't understand what running up the score actually means.

 

I'm very confident we'll never see McDermott run up the score on anyone.

Jets game were up 24-10 with 8 minutes to go and were still throwing.  We are throwing with less than 6 minutes to go.  Thats not "playing to win" thats going for the jugular when the game is over.

 

Raiders game up 30-16 with 8 minutes to go and were still throwing.  I will concede that with 5 minutes to go and the same score we ran three straight times, but that did require timeouts to be burned.  

Edited October 26, 2020 by YattaOkasan

[wjag]

2 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Correct. The 2-deep shell and you play him the same way teams play Allen. 

 

If I know ol' Bill, he is going to dial up plenty of runs to attack our suspect front and work the TOP to keep the game close.

 

He knows a frustrated Allen is a beatable Allen.

 

 

 

Oh yeah, we are going to see a steady diet of small backs running at the Bills.  Screens to backs out of the backfield.  Check downs to backs in the flats.  And Newton designed runs.  The only way to stop it is to put them into a big hole early.

[thebandit27]

7 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Correct. The 2-deep shell and you play him the same way teams play Allen. 

 

If I know ol' Bill, he is going to dial up plenty of runs to attack our suspect front and work the TOP to keep the game close.

 

He knows a frustrated Allen is a beatable Allen.

 

 

I suspect McDermott will show a number of different coverage looks, but I think you’ll see the typical Cover-3 and Quarters stuff we’ve been doing all year once the ball is snapped—keep it simple, but make it look complicated.

Edited October 26, 2020 by thebandit27

[YattaOkasan]

13 minutes ago, Gene1973 said:

8 minutes is plenty of time for the opponent to score 14 pts to tie, hence that does not fit the definition of assured outcome.

So historically 8 minutes (@ the start of the drive) with a 2 score lead is a run the ball time from what i have seen from conservative coaches.  I guess we need some data on play selection < 5 min with a 2 score lead.  I dont think any coaches are throwing there cause the game is over if you run the ball (an onsides will be needed there).  So your gripe is about play selection <5 min with a 2 score lead.  Talk about inconsequential.  The outcome of the game is significantly assured if you have the ball with <8 minutes and a 2 score lead btw.

Edited October 26, 2020 by YattaOkasan