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FireChans

Don't look now but the Bills defense is 20th in the NFL in yards!

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5 minutes ago, FLbills said:

I'd be careful coughing... you wouldn't want to have to isolate yourself from TBD due to the corona netvirus symptoms...lol

 

Thanks - fixed it.

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Posted (edited)

 

 

 

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah the problem is they actually let the other team come back. Dolphins, Rams, even the Raiders for a little while there, all got back into the game after trailing by 2 scores. The defense was saved by Josh Allen doing Josh Allen things. You should be worried about the defense. They're playing at a below average level. This defense with last year's offense doesn't reach the playoffs.

 

 

Yeah, but key injuries appear to have a major part in that, and those guys seem to be coming back not just enough to play but to play close to normal level.

 

No Star really hurt those first four weeks. Hopefully our new 1-tech, who played pretty well last week, will also be part of the solution. I see no reason to worry about this defense ... yet.

Edited by Thurman#1

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When should I look?

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11 hours ago, Hebert19 said:

This.  They have been fairly solid in first half of games.  The lack of passion rush hurts them when teams are on comeback mode...that needs to be fixed...but otherwise classic bend but don't break. 

 

Is this some sort of sports drink they need to have on the sidelines? 😉

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

This defense isn't playing like this on last year's schedule. Brandon Allen and Dwayne Haskins and a washed out Eli Manning are not coming over the hill to give them some easy games. 

 

That isn't to say there are not issues or that the defense isn't playing worse than last year - it clearly is. But I don't think the difference is as big as it maybe appears on the bald numbers. 

 

I don't think last year's defense lets the Rams score 4 consecutive TDs. Or make it so Allen has to throw for 400 yards to beat the Dolphins. Or get torched in the secondary by Agholor and Zay Jones. They got lucky that an illegal formation wiped out a TD and that Zay Jones can't track or catch the ball. That isn't the standard they were playing to last year. 

 

It's true this year's schedule is harder so far, but I wouldn't say the Jets and Dolphins and Raiders offenses are a big challenge. We just haven't played as well. The only stat I know of that tried to account for strength of opponent is DVOA. So far in 2020 our pass defense is 17th, rush defense is 20th, and total defense is 22nd. Last year our pass defense ended 6th, rush defense was 22nd, and total defense was 7th. So our rush defense is about the same but our pass defense has become noticeably worse. Admittedly DVOA isn't fully weighting strength of opponent yet so maybe that will change. But I only see the Rams offense as truly formidable at this point. The rest we've faced are average at best.

15 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, but key injuries appear to have a major part in that, and those guys seem to be coming back not just enough to play but to play close to normal level.

 

I think Edmunds and White are both playing hurt so this could definitely be a factor. And Milano can only suit up every other game which isn't helping.

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30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't think last year's defense lets the Rams score 4 consecutive TDs. Or make it so Allen has to throw for 400 yards to beat the Dolphins. Or get torched in the secondary by Agholor and Zay Jones. They got lucky that an illegal formation wiped out a TD and that Zay Jones can't track or catch the ball. That isn't the standard they were playing to last year. 

 

It's true this year's schedule is harder so far, but I wouldn't say the Jets and Dolphins and Raiders offenses are a big challenge. We just haven't played as well. The only stat I know of that tried to account for strength of opponent is DVOA. So far in 2020 our pass defense is 17th, rush defense is 20th, and total defense is 22nd. Last year our pass defense ended 6th, rush defense was 22nd, and total defense was 7th. So our rush defense is about the same but our pass defense has become noticeably worse. Admittedly DVOA isn't fully weighting strength of opponent yet so maybe that will change. But I only see the Rams offense as truly formidable at this point. The rest we've faced are average at best.

 

I think Edmunds and White are both playing hurt so this could definitely be a factor. And Milano can only suit up every other game which isn't helping.

 

I disagree on the Raiders I think Carr is playing well and that offense is legit. I agree we are not playing as well as last year, but there are a number of factors to that and one of them is the competition this season is tougher. I think we will end the season worse than we were last year on D but not a lot worse. The Rams game was the one game where I was really concerned but I think there are various mitigations in the other games that mean I am really not freaking out yet. Some of which is about you play D differently when your O can score at any moment. 

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11 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

 

I hope u are right! 

It's happened before: see vs. Chargers in '18 (post-Vontae retirement).

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I'm not as concerned as many people are.  When you look at the game flow, playing with a lead causes teams to change their strategy.  The secondary backs off, fewer d-line stunts, less blitzing, and more deep zone coverage.  It's about trading yards for time.  I do think Frazier and McD have gone to it too early in some games.  The Bills also seem to come out flat after halftime.  This falls directly on the players.  In addition, the injuries to Milano and Edmunds have had a huge impact both in run defense and pass coverage.  I also think that Oliver is playing hurt (more hurt than many believe) and it has slowed him and the pass rush down.

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49 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

I'm not as concerned as many people are.  When you look at the game flow, playing with a lead causes teams to change their strategy.  The secondary backs off, fewer d-line stunts, less blitzing, and more deep zone coverage.  It's about trading yards for time.  I do think Frazier and McD have gone to it too early in some games.  The Bills also seem to come out flat after halftime.  This falls directly on the players.  In addition, the injuries to Milano and Edmunds have had a huge impact both in run defense and pass coverage.  I also think that Oliver is playing hurt (more hurt than many believe) and it has slowed him and the pass rush down.

 

People need to get used to this.  If the offense is dropping points like they're a gum factory, then we're going to see a lot of prevent D designed to run the clock.

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Honestly the defense has been far from elite but it hasn't been as tragic as fans are making it out to be. Looking at all 4 games individually and I only see one bad game out of the 4. The defense shut down the Jets as they should have (10 points given up 7 more in garbage time.) The Fins beat up the defense over the middle with Milano and Edumonds out but the defense only let up 21 points when it mattered (7 points given up in garbage time.) The Rams game was tragic but the offense did muff the ball twice in that run so the defense was hung out to dry a bit. And in the Raiders game the defense clamped down in the second half and only let up 16 points when the game was on the line (7 points in garbage time.)

 

If you factor out the three garbage time TD's they gave up against the Jets, Fins and Raiders the points given up by the defense are 10, 21, 32 and 16. That's an average of 19.75 points per-game given up. Given the inflated offense this season due to the weird off-season I think it is healthy to say that just under 20 points per game is at least an above average defense. 

 

I know writing off garbage time TD's is a big cheap but context matters in this instance since those garbage TD's were given up when the game was out of reach.

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On 10/8/2020 at 7:44 PM, matter2003 said:

 

His major problem is block shedding. He needs to improve on that. He gets blocked too easily.

 

 

Thing is, everybody's major problem is block shedding. That's why guys like Star are so valuable.

 

Look at Ray Lewis. A lot of people don't remember but he was seen as one of the absolute best, then in the middle of his career, Tony Siragusa retired and Ray Lewis became a pretty ordinary LB. People said he was done, that he's lost what made him special. Then they drafted Haloti Ngata and coincidentally at just that moment Ray became a terror again and for the rest of his career.

 

Edmunds has an injured shoulder and is playing behind a line that's not quite as good as last year's was. And he's still playing pretty well. He'll be fine.

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On 10/7/2020 at 9:34 PM, FireChans said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2020.htm

 

A quarter of the way through the season and the Bills D is 20th in yards allowed, 17th in points allowed, all while being 6th in starting field position.

 

Thank god the Bills offense is 5th in points and 4th in yards, despite being 28th in rushing yards. McD's masterplan to get Josh Allen his first MVP is succeeding so far.

Injuries aside, I think that this is an aerobic conditioning issue. That 'D' looks gassed too often, and too soon...

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Defense is overrated in the 2020 NFL.  No one's marching to the post-season as a 1 or 2 seed with a top defense and an average offense.

 

With slight exceptions for a few games, Buffalo hasn't had a strong offense that can regularly score big points in 25 years.  

 

 Sure, they need to make stops in certain key situations, but it's not the critical requirement some are making it out to be.  

 

Out-scoring your opponents like their LAR game is the best way to reaching elite team status in the NFL of today. 

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The problem seems to lie in the halftime locker room. Something is lost. Strategy, intensity?  Who knows. It also helps to finally have an offense that can score consistently. You also have to factor in losing Star, Phillips, Zo and Shaq. Our core guys like Edmunds, Milano & White have been hurt. All these factor in. The D in the 2nd half of the Raider game will probably be what we see the rest of the way. We won't be top 5 but we won't be 20 th either. 

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On 10/8/2020 at 11:40 AM, Ethan in Portland said:

It's all three levels. No pass rush.  Edmunds again taking bad angles.  Run Dis interesting and has been all year. They are stout one play and then get gashed for 10+ on another.  That seems to fit the narrative of not getting to their run fits and playing bad angles.  Even White has given up some yards and a score or two but the opposition has mostly targeted Levi and Taron. Milano when healthy has been great. Hyde and Hughes have been as well.  

 

That said, the pass rush got better in the second half last week.  The run D got better.  And they forced two fumbles - one a strip sack.  

If I'm Beane I still try to add an edge pass rusher especially with Milano out for some time.  

11th in yard per play and 11th in takeaways.  They are not giving up the big play.  And the last game they forced a few turnovers.  

Add an edge pass rusher and give the DL rotation a bit more time to come together.  

There is no additional money to be poured on that DL 

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Posted (edited)
On 10/7/2020 at 7:28 PM, Marv's Neighbor said:

Is Frazier feeling any heat?  If they let him go, would Sean just step in, or name a replacement?

Unpopular choice but maybe they look at Dan Quinn as DC, possibly? Or maybe a Jim Schwartz reunion if Philly blows it up at the seasons end if they miss the playoffs? But I have to say I like Frazier and the job he’s done. We’re missing key players that we need on the Defense. This covid nonsense really screwed things up big time.

Edited by BuffaloBills1998

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Its a little concerning, but the defense is not independent from the offense. If the Bills offense is putting up fast points, the opposing offense is going to push the envelope in return. 

 

I'm not totally worried about the defense being able to close out games, barring injuries to key players. Fingers crossed. And they should get better as the season goes on, hopefully fixing any lingering issues by playoff time.

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