Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

 

shall I continue? 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_oct07
 

Rasmussen’s daily tracking presidential approval poll: Trump -10. 
 

The also report an Approval Index based on the harder “strongly approve” minus “strongly disapprove.” That’s worse for Trump:  negative 15. 
 

Rasmussen is typically the most favorable polling operation for Republicans.
 

Conclusion: the Trump-COVID effect is real, and it’s strongly negative for Trump. Whether it will sustain is a different question. My guess is that it will dissipate but not completely, but given that a lot of people have already voted or will be voting in the next week or so, this is horrible news for Trump. 
 

EDIT: On August 3 Trump was at 50% approval in Rasmussen. And of course

he tweeted about it. So none of this “Rasmussen is rigged against Trump” stuff here. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Backintheday544]

2 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

Signs?   Signs??

 

Lets look at signs -----  

The signs in my neck of the woods - RURAL Virginal is 4 to 1 of Biden to Trump.  Only 12 years ago the Republican to Democrat signs were 4 to 1.  A complete flip!  

 

Also ...   20 Trump signs in 1 yard should only count as 1.  

 

 

I'm in a rural/suburb in VA. In 2016 it was littered with Trump signs and a handful of Hilary signs. 

 

This year it's about 50/50. But there are noticably less signs than 4 years ago by a ton.

[Backintheday544]

Huge new poll:

 

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf

 

Trump/Biden tied in TX. 1 percent lead for Republicans in the Senate.

 

Party break down:

 

Democrat 29%

Republican 38%

Independent 33%

 

If Texas goes Biden, it's all over.

[The Frankish Reich]

29 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

Huge new poll:

 

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_TX_banner_book_2020_10_cm5k3s.pdf

 

Trump/Biden tied in TX. 1 percent lead for Republicans in the Senate.

 

Party break down:

 

Democrat 29%

Republican 38%

Independent 33%

 

If Texas goes Biden, it's all over.

Biden has a ton of cash on hand and they’re now spending it in long shots like Texas. There’s just nowhere else to spend it all before the election. It’ll be interesting to see if this draws Republican/Trump money back into the race there. I don’t expect Biden to win Texas, but this is a sign of rough roads ahead for the Republicans as Texas continues to change demographically with the Yankee influx. 

[keepthefaith]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Biden has a ton of cash on hand and they’re now spending it in long shots like Texas. There’s just nowhere else to spend it all before the election. It’ll be interesting to see if this draws Republican/Trump money back into the race there. I don’t expect Biden to win Texas, but this is a sign of rough roads ahead for the Republicans as Texas continues to change demographically with the Yankee due to Californication.

 

FIFY

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, keepthefaith said:

 

FIFY

Correct. Hey, I live in Colorado and I’ve seen it happen here. And while I’m a “lefty” on PPP I’m not real happy with how it’s destroyed a nice little libertarian-center-right thing we had in our political culture. 

[The Frankish Reich]

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678
 

Wow.

Just wow. 
 

Trump cratering everywhere. 

Edited October 7, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Backintheday544]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678
 

Wow.

Just wow. 

 

Florida breakdown:

 

Republican 28%

Democrat 30

Independent 34

 

Iowa Breakdown:

Republican 29%

Democrat 31

Independent 33

Other/DK/NA 7

 

PA breakdown:

Republican 33%

Democrat 39

Independent 24

Other/DK/NA 4

[Backintheday544]

Trump's approval sinking faster than a Rex Ryan led Bills team. Down to 44 percent approval rating as many Americans are starting to vote on Rasmussen.

 

Like a Rex Ryan led Bills team, the Trump campaign has been very undisciplined and making many unforced errors.

[Tiberius]

House Democrats appear to be on the precipice of expanding their majority in the lower chamber.

In a new report by the nonpartisan election forecaster the Cook Political Report, seven House races have shifted in the Democratic Party's favor, including the contest for the North Carolina seat vacated by White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, which moved from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican."

There are 232 Democrats and 198 Republicans in the House, as well as one libertarian, former Republican Justin Amash, and four vacancies, including one left by the late Rep. John Lewis. Republicans lost control of the House thanks to the so-called "blue wave" during the 2018 midterm elections in which Democrats flipped 41 seats.

There are other warning signs for Republicans in the upper chamber, where they currently hold 53 seats. An analysis released by the Cook Political Report in July, when there was just over 100 days before the election in November, said, "Democrats are a slight favorite to win the Senate majority."

The new report on the House found the GOP's chances of taking back the lower chamber increasingly depressed. Even if the 25 races listed as a "toss up" are split evenly, Democrats could gain five or six seats.

"Republicans no longer have a realistic path to picking up the 17 seats they need for a majority," the report reads. "Right now, the most likely outcome is a Democratic net gain of between five and ten seats, with anything from no net change to a Democratic gain of 15 seats possible."

Of the other races that received a status change from the Cook Political Report, Democratic Reps. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania and Lizzie Pannill Fletcher of Texas saw their contests moved from "Lean Democratic" to "Likely Democratic." The contests involving incumbent Reps. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Cindy Axne of Iowa, both Democrats, moved from "Toss Up" to "Lean Democratic."

New York Republican Rep. John Katko's race moved from "Lean Republican" to a "Toss Up," while the contest involving Rep. Mike Kelly of Pennsylvania moved from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican."

Katko, who is seeking a fourth term, is facing another challenge from Syracuse University professor Dana Balter, whom he defeated by just 5 points in a Hillary Clinton-won district in

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/cook-political-report-democrats-could-gain-15-more-seats-in-house-two-years-after-blue-wave

[Backintheday544]

Spanberger's district went from Eric Cantor to being not conservative enough so Cantor got primaried. Now is leans Democrat for Spanberger's second term 

[BillsFanNC]

 

[Tiberius]

Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 55, Trump 43	Biden +12
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 54, Trump 42, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1	Biden +12

On 10/9/2020 at 3:48 PM, BillsFanNC said:

 

Lol, who’d they ask? Michigan terrorists? Or the Taliban? 

 

What a sh itty joke 

[SoTier]

On 10/9/2020 at 3:48 PM, BillsFanNC said:

 

 

How the hell can the FBI be "prosecuted" for anything????   It's NOT A PERSON!!!                                                

 

Dumbasses post this too stupid to be true manure on Twitter and every Trumplet on PPP laps it up like my dog does the roast beef drippings.  

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

How the hell can the FBI be "prosecuted" for anything????   It's NOT A PERSON!!!                                                

 

Dumbasses post this too stupid to be true manure on Twitter and every Trumplet on PPP laps it up like my dog does the roast beef drippings.  

 

 

so setting aside the parsing/misuse of words, do you see it necessary to bring certain FBI PERSONNEL up on charges of collusion and/or abuse of power?..if the response results with THE SAME, would you be chiding "Covid Barack" or "Covid Joe"  ala "Covid Donnie"????..I'll hang up and wait for a response....

Edited October 11, 2020 by OldTimeAFLGuy

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

How the hell can the FBI be "prosecuted" for anything????   It's NOT A PERSON!!!                                                

 

Dumbasses post this too stupid to be true manure on Twitter and every Trumplet on PPP laps it up like my dog does the roast beef drippings.  

 

 

It's a Rasmussen poll question, and the question itself (I looked) appears to be fair. Say what you will about Rasmussen.

But as Biden would say, here's the deal: it isn't a very good result for Trump supporters.

It basically has 1/3 of the respondents saying they are familiar with what Trump is trying to dub Obamagate -- the idea that FBI agents lied in order to obtain warrants to investigate the Trump campaign. In other words, the hard core of Trump loyalists believe that this is true. 21% -- no doubt hard core Democrats -- say the FBI didn't lie. And a near majority -- 46% -- is "not sure." I take this to mean "I haven't really paid attention."

So this explains why Trump is hell-bent on indictments pre-election, to try to vault this into public consciousness with the hope of converting a small number of low information voters (that 46%) into a pro-Trump (or more accurately, anti-Biden) vote.

But so far it ain't working ...

 

[BillsFanNC]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

How the hell can the FBI be "prosecuted" for anything????   It's NOT A PERSON!!!                                                

 

Dumbasses post this too stupid to be true manure on Twitter and every Trumplet on PPP laps it up like my dog does the roast beef drippings.  

 

 

 

Idiocy abounds on PPP but you just might take the cake.  You clearly stand head and shoulders above the rest.  Congrats to you on this accomplishment. Stiff competition down here.

 

😂😂😂😂😂

 

Enough emojis for you to drive home the point? 

 

 

[BillsFanNC]

38 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

It's a Rasmussen poll question, and the question itself (I looked) appears to be fair. Say what you will about Rasmussen.

But as Biden would say, here's the deal: it isn't a very good result for Trump supporters.

It basically has 1/3 of the respondents saying they are familiar with what Trump is trying to dub Obamagate -- the idea that FBI agents lied in order to obtain warrants to investigate the Trump campaign. In other words, the hard core of Trump loyalists people who can read and understand primary source documents believe  know that this is true. 21% -- no doubt hard core Democrats -- say the FBI didn't lie. And a near majority -- 46% -- is "not sure." I take this to mean "I haven't really paid attention."

So this explains why Trump is the media is hell-bent on indictments burying this story pre-election, to try to vault  keep this into out of the public consciousness with the hope of converting keeping a small number of low information voters (that 46%) distracted. into a pro-Trump (or more accurately, anti-Biden) vote.

But so far it's ain't working ...so far....

 

 

FIFY

 

An FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, has pleaded guilty to altering evidence in order to secure a renewed FISA warrant.  It happened.  No amount of spinning can change this fact. 

 

Again, this shouldn't be a partisan issue.  If they can do it to Trump and his associates they can most definitely do it to you, me or any other American.  

 

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/512750-clinesmith-pleads-guilty-in-first-criminal-case-stemming-from-durham

 

Quote

Former FBI attorney Kevin Clinesmith pleaded guilty to falsifying a document to justify surveillance of a former Trump campaign adviser as part of the 2016 investigation into Russian interference in the presidential election.

 

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

It's a Rasmussen poll question, and the question itself (I looked) appears to be fair. Say what you will about Rasmussen.

But as Biden would say, here's the deal: it isn't a very good result for Trump supporters.

It basically has 1/3 of the respondents saying they are familiar with what Trump is trying to dub Obamagate -- the idea that FBI agents lied in order to obtain warrants to investigate the Trump campaign. In other words, the hard core of Trump loyalists believe that this is true. 21% -- no doubt hard core Democrats -- say the FBI didn't lie. And a near majority -- 46% -- is "not sure." I take this to mean "I haven't really paid attention."

So this explains why Trump is hell-bent on indictments pre-election, to try to vault this into public consciousness with the hope of converting a small number of low information voters (that 46%) into a pro-Trump (or more accurately, anti-Biden) vote.

But so far it ain't working ...

 

 

I wasn't addressing the poll.  I was addressing the  quoted Tweet "twice as many voters think the FBI should be prosecuted ...".   A government agency is not a person and cannot "be prosecuted".   You don't have to be a constitutional scholar to understand that very basic concept.  That speaks to the quality of "the sources" the Trumplets embrace as  gospel.

[H2o]

Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest. 

[meazza]

3 hours ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

FIFY

 

An FBI lawyer, Kevin Clinesmith, has pleaded guilty to altering evidence in order to secure a renewed FISA warrant.  It happened.  No amount of spinning can change this fact. 

 

Again, this shouldn't be a partisan issue.  If they can do it to Trump and his associates they can most definitely do it to you, me or any other American.  

 

https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/512750-clinesmith-pleads-guilty-in-first-criminal-case-stemming-from-durham

 

 

 
They did it to Richard jewell 

[Backintheday544]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest. 

 

Please describe the correlation of people showing up to events in a pandemic to showing voter turn out?

 

We literally have hard data on voter turnout already from early voting and mail in ballots and it's been overwhelmingly Democrat.

[H2o]

2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Please describe the correlation of people showing up to events in a pandemic to showing voter turn out?

 

We literally have hard data on voter turnout already from early voting and mail in ballots and it's been overwhelmingly Democrat.

👌

[KD in CA]

I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy.   

 

I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016.

[Backintheday544]

55 minutes ago, H2o said:

👌

 

45 minutes ago, KD in CA said:

I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy.   

 

I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016.

 

That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins:

 

Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting

 

In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent

 

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016.

 

And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.

[Unforgiven]

 

[Backintheday544]

8 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

 

 

RIP Herman Cain. If only you didn't go to that Trump rally with no masks and no social distancing.

[KD in CA]

1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

 

That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins:

 

Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting

 

In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent

 

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016.

 

And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.

 

I guess we'll see if that means there are more Dem voters in total.  It seems like mailing in your ballot is the cool, "Resist", TDS thing to do this year for all the leftist sheep (at least where I live).

 

I have no idea what's going to happen, have had this election a 50/50 toss-up for many weeks and don't see that changing.  The only thing that is for certain is, we're being lied to by the media, day and night.

[SoTier]

13 hours ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

 

That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins:

 

Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting

 

In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent

 

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016.

 

And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.

 

There are a couple of things that these stats suggest:

1)  Many registered Republicans are going to stay on the sidelines this election cycle

2)  Trump's attempts to suppress the mail-in/absentee vote looks to be blowing up in his face: mail in voting is not only significantly up in every state that has it, but it also seems to be suppressing Republican mail in voting while increasing Democratic mail-in voting.  

 

12 hours ago, KD in CA said:

 

I guess we'll see if that means there are more Dem voters in total.  It seems like mailing in your ballot is the cool, "Resist", TDS thing to do this year for all the leftist sheep (at least where I live).

 

I have no idea what's going to happen, have had this election a 50/50 toss-up for many weeks and don't see that changing.  The only thing that is for certain is, we're being lied to by the media, day and night.

 

Why is the media lying?  Because you don't like what you're hearing?   This election is a referendum on Covid Donnie's  handling of the coronavirus and its effects on the US economy, and Trump's approval ratings on both are terrible.    Incumbents don't win re-election when the unemployment rate hovers in the 8-10%, especially when the POTUS bleats that the economy is doing "great" because the stock market is up.

[Tiberius]

15 hours ago, KD in CA said:

I see the media is dusting off the "if we keep saying Trump is going to lose by a mile maybe his supporters won't show up to vote" strategy.   

 

I wonder if they've fine tuned it since 2016.

This is really dumb. “The media”??? Huh? So you are  claiming  their is a conspiracy on the part of all the news organizations to gang up on you? Tin foil hat 

 

 

[Tiberius]

16 hours ago, H2o said:

Still think the polls are legit? And this is not the first instance either, just the latest. 

So you think you are being deliberately lied to by “The Media” 

[Backintheday544]

38 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

There are a couple of things that these stats suggest:

1)  Many registered Republicans are going to stay on the sidelines this election cycle

2)  Trump's attempts to suppress the mail-in/absentee vote looks to be blowing up in his face: mail in voting is not only significantly up in every state that has it, but it also seems to be suppressing Republican mail in voting while increasing Democratic mail-in voting.  

 

 

Why is the media lying?  Because you don't like what you're hearing?   This election is a referendum on Covid Donnie's  handling of the coronavirus and its effects on the US economy, and Trump's approval ratings on both are terrible.    Incumbents don't win re-election when the unemployment rate hovers in the 8-10%, especially when the POTUS bleats that the economy is doing "great" because the stock market is up.

 

That's a good point I never thought about. I think a majority of Dems have tuned out Trump and understand his lies vs what's real. Republicans still listen to him.

 

So with that in mind, it wouldn't see surprising to see Democrats vote early in the same manner and the Republican vote actually end up being supressed.

[Tiberius]

More polls from "The Media" 

 

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	IBD/TIPP	Biden 53, Trump 42	Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	IBD/TIPP	Biden 52, Trump 43, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1	Biden +9
Montana: Trump vs. Biden	PPP (D)	Trump 52, Biden 46	Trump +6
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	Trafalgar Group (R)	Kelly 47, McSally 45	Kelly +2

[The Frankish Reich]

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/520627-good-bad-and-ugly-making-sense-of-the-polls

 

A very good, fair article, echoing some of the things we've been saying here -- not all polls are created equal, watch the sample sizes and turnout models, etc.

Interesting take on Rasmussen for example:

 

Rassmussen — long considered a pro-Trump and GOP polling firm — has consistently shown better numbers for Trump over the past four years. But Rassmussen reports only “likely voters” not just registered voters, which tends to favor Trump. Rassmussen likely has a model that thinks more Republican voters will turn out. However, without the crosstabs, we cannot be certain.

Recent Rassmussen polling has turned sharply against Trump, going from a 48-47 percent Biden advantage on Sept. 22 to a 52-40 percent advantage on Oct. 6. Although Trump has been losing ground, that’s a big move, and my bet is that Rassmussen adjusted its turnout model. If so, credit Rassmussen for changing its methodology to reflect how it sees the race unfolding. But it would help if it would make public its sampling composition. 

[aristocrat]

Trump has got to win Wisconsin or pa to take it

[Bakin]

15 hours ago, Tiberius said:

So you think you are being deliberately lied to by “The Media” 

You are being lied to. If you don’t know it yet, you are an utter moron. 
The MSM has been solidly anti Trump since 2015 when he ran as a Republican. 
Is this even news?

[Big Blitz]

 

 

 

The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March.  Lie.  

[Doc Brown]

On 10/11/2020 at 6:20 PM, Backintheday544 said:

 

 

That's the thing. The media can say what they want, but actual ballots coming in are showing Democrats and Republicans aren't. I mean it's not a huge surprise, the polls showed Dems would early vote more than Republicans, but not by the margins:

 

Americans are voting early in the 2020 general election at an unprecedented pace, with elections officials having already received more than 9 million ballots in the 30 states that have made data available, and that data indicates that registered Democrats have returned more than twice as many ballots than Republicans thus far

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/520306-democrats-surge-past-republicans-in-early-voting

 

In Florida, registered Democrats had out-voted registered Republicans by a slim 37 percent to 35 percent margin by this point in 2016. Today, almost 53 percent of votes cast in Florida have come from registered Democrats, while Republicans account for just 28 percent

 

In North Carolina, registered Democrats have cast 52 percent of all ballots so far, up from 36 percent four years ago. Registered Republicans account for just 17 percent of the ballots, down from 37 percent in 2016.

 

And in Pennsylvania, a state at the heart of Trump's reelection strategy, registered Democrats have cast more than three-quarters of all ballots. Republicans made up just 15 percent of ballots returned to date.

This is all baked into the polls.  Early voting numbers don't matter whatsoever.

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March.  Lie.  

One caveat to this is she lost about three points nationally right after Comey came out with the October surprise of Weiner's laptop.  Trump will win NC again though.  If Trump is within four points of the state poll average I just assume he'll win.

[Backintheday544]

5 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

The Biden up by 12! Polls are "the media's" response to the massive enthusiasm gap and they're just continuing to do what they've been doing since March.  Lie.  

 

These numbers are comparing 10/10 to the actual. The entire 2016 saw a ton of movement, see here:

 

 

The 2020 election has not seen anything like above. It's been relatively flat for Biden and Trump. 

 

Plus don't forget there was a big swing in votes after the Comey election.

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

This is all baked into the polls.  Early voting numbers don't matter whatsoever.

One caveat to this is she lost about three points nationally right after Comey came out with the October surprise of Weiner's laptop.  Trump will win NC again though.  If Trump is within four points of the state poll average I just assume he'll win.

 

I would agree with you on early voting numbers in any other year. However, a much larger set of the population is early voting than ever before due to COVID.

 

NC I think goes Trump of any of the swing states.