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Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting


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Just now, Dragoon said:


What was the lesson you learned from the 2016 polls? Because I learned pollsters are really influencers. 

Biden's lead is bigger. And since 2016 Trump has lied about a public health crisis and it killed Americans. That's huge. We have seen his incompetence is stunning and has been revealed. And women hate him 

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18 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Biden's lead is bigger. And since 2016 Trump has lied about a public health crisis and it killed Americans. That's huge. We have seen his incompetence is stunning and has been revealed. And women hate him 


I’m really looking forward to your ‘sky is falling’ comments that’ll be coming in early November. Hope you enjoyed last nights hockey. 

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6 hours ago, Dragoon said:


What was the lesson you learned from the 2016 polls? Because I learned pollsters are really influencers. 

 

2016 final polls weren't that far off. Heres the break down of swing states between actual results and RCPs averages:

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html

 

Only Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa were crazily off.

 

The 2016 polls fluctuated a ton as well, whereas 2020 has been constant since Bidens nomination.

 

2016 also saw a greater number of undecides at this point in the election whereas 2020 the undecided vote is rather small.

 

Also saying don't trust polls because 2016 ignores that the polls predicted the Blue Tsunami in 2018.

Edited by Backintheday544
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1 hour ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

2016 final polls weren't that far off. Heres the break down of swing states between actual results and RCPs averages:

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html

 

Only Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa were crazily off.

 

The 2016 polls fluctuated a ton as well, whereas 2020 has been constant since Bidens nomination.

 

2016 also saw a greater number of undecides at this point in the election whereas 2020 the undecided vote is rather small.

 

Also saying don't trust polls because 2016 ignores that the polls predicted the Blue Tsunami in 2018.


I don’t believe it’s inaccuracies in the polling...I believe they’re cherry picking and promoting what they want the polls to say to encourage their base, discourage the conservative base, and to influence the election....ya know, just like everything I read from CNN and the NYT. 

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2 hours ago, Dragoon said:


I don’t believe it’s inaccuracies in the polling...I believe they’re cherry picking and promoting what they want the polls to say to encourage their base, discourage the conservative base, and to influence the election....ya know, just like everything I read from CNN and the NYT. 

 

Here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

 

You can read the polls and the results without any interpretation from CNN or NYT.

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WASHINGTON - Democratic voters who have requested mail ballots - and returned them - greatly outnumber Republicans so far in key battleground states, causing alarm among GOP party leaders and strategists that President Donald Trump's attacks on mail voting could be hurting the party's prospects to retain the White House and the Senate this year.

Of the more than 9 million voters who requested mail ballots through Monday in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, the five battleground states where such data is publicly available, 52% were Democrats. Twenty-eight percent were Republicans and 20% were unaffiliated.

https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Early-surge-of-Democratic-mail-voting-sparks-15607367.php

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1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

WASHINGTON - Democratic voters who have requested mail ballots - and returned them - greatly outnumber Republicans so far in key battleground states, causing alarm among GOP party leaders and strategists that President Donald Trump's attacks on mail voting could be hurting the party's prospects to retain the White House and the Senate this year.

Of the more than 9 million voters who requested mail ballots through Monday in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maine and Iowa, the five battleground states where such data is publicly available, 52% were Democrats. Twenty-eight percent were Republicans and 20% were unaffiliated.

https://www.thehour.com/news/article/Early-surge-of-Democratic-mail-voting-sparks-15607367.php

 

But causing alarm among Democrat strategists only 11% percent of those requesting mail-in ballots were deceased.   Said one anonymous strategist "if we've lost the dead, you can put a nail in our campaign's chances." ;)

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45 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

But causing alarm among Democrat strategists only 11% percent of those requesting mail-in ballots were deceased.   Said one anonymous strategist "if we've lost the dead, you can put a nail in our campaign's chances." ;)

Just win baby! 

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2 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

Vox :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: 

 

 

Never change, asshat.

Says the guy who posts stuff like “driving around my Oklahoma neighborhood I see 100 Trump signs to every 1 Biden”

keep dreaming. I hear that on October 17 you will be doing a little role reversal and putting on the strap-on ... holster to join the Proud Boys in the reckoning. 

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10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Says the guy who posts stuff like “driving around my Oklahoma neighborhood I see 100 Trump signs to every 1 Biden”

keep dreaming. I hear that on October 17 you will be doing a little role reversal and putting on the strap-on ... holster to join the Proud Boys in the reckoning. 

 

The signs of a man who's lost. A man who's been so embarrassed and pummeled on here that all he has left is homophobic insults. 

 

And he wonders why he's a clown :lol: 

 

His hate is clear to see. He's unstable. A known liar. And he can't hang. 

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6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Get a sense of humor. That whole Proud Boys thing has a homoerotic appeal. To some. 
Argue with the poll or and it’s methodology, fine, but that “it’s all part of the big fix” grows tiresome. Especially when you liked to a Harvard-Harris poll yesterday with glee. 

 

This is a meltdown. Full blown. He made a homophobic slur, because he has deep hatred in his heart which comes out when he's rattled and exposed. Now he's trying to say it was just "humor". It wasn't, Frank. It was anger. 

 

You've proven being honest is a struggle for you, but at the very least be honest about that.

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2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Just saying ... we hear his supporters refer to Trump as the alpha male and (Rush I think) as “Mr Man”, but a lot of his most ardent supporters love to congregate in single-sex groups of men in matching outfits. 
A Trumpie will not win an argument by calling his opposition a racist or a homophobe. 

 

I'm not arguing. I'm pointing out your own homophobia which is rampant now in three posts. You use it as an insult. Because you have hatred in your heart and you've exposed yourself to be everything you claim to be against. You should seek help for your condition, Frank. Not only are you an impulsive liar who argues with himself for hours, you're also very hateful and quick to anger. 

 

You have a lot of issues. And it's a joy to expose them to the world while I continue to live rent free inside your empty head. 

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16 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

The signs of a man who's lost. A man who's been so embarrassed and pummeled on here that all he has left is homophobic insults. 

 

And he wonders why he's a clown :lol: 

 

His hate is clear to see. He's unstable. A known liar. And he can't hang. 

You are the one losing. Losing BIGLY! 🤣

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1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

A Trumpie will not win an argument by calling his opposition a racist or a homophobe. 

Only a lefty would care about something so trivial.  I mean, congratulation on cornering the all important "identity politics."  That's something that's required when your political ideology is such an abortion historically.

 

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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-won-debate-first-presidential-biden-trump/

Another solid post-debate poll. This one shows viewers thought Biden "won" by a 48-41 margin. In other words, by exactly the margin (distributing the "tie" or "don't know" responses proportionately) by which Biden leads in the general election polls.

Combined with the other one this morning (Vox -- link above) showing a Biden 53 - Trump 39 margin, it's becoming clearer that the first debate changed no one's mind.

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6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-won-debate-first-presidential-biden-trump/

Another solid post-debate poll. This one shows viewers thought Biden "won" by a 48-41 margin. In other words, by exactly the margin (distributing the "tie" or "don't know" responses proportionately) by which Biden leads in the general election polls.

Combined with the other one this morning (Vox -- link above) showing a Biden 53 - Trump 39 margin, it's becoming clearer that the first debate changed no one's mind.

 

CNN Poll: Romney Beat Obama 67-27.

'

These polls don't mean jack schitt.

Edited by IDBillzFan
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1 minute ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

CNN Poll: Romney Beat Obama 67-27.

'

These polls don't mean jack schitt.

Not eloquently expressed, but you're probably right. Debate performances rarely change presidential elections.

What it does imply is this: as many commenters have noted, this is the most stable election from a polling perspective in modern polling history. It's hard to imagine what could change between now and November 3 that would significantly move either candidate's numbers. The one biggie (I'll admit it) was if Biden came off as feeble and addled. He didn't. Oh, he wasn't like he was MLK moving people with his very words, but he was pretty much the same as he was in the Dem debates.

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Just now, The Frankish Reich said:

Not eloquently expressed, but you're probably right. Debate performances rarely change presidential elections.

What it does imply is this: as many commenters have noted, this is the most stable election from a polling perspective in modern polling history. It's hard to imagine what could change between now and November 3 that would significantly move either candidate's numbers. The one biggie (I'll admit it) was if Biden came off as feeble and addled. He didn't. Oh, he wasn't like he was MLK moving people with his very words, but he was pretty much the same as he was in the Dem debates.

 

Trump's biggest mistake last night was interrupting Biden. I'm not smart enough to weigh in on the whole gladiator thing, but there were a few times you could tell Biden -- left to his own thoughts -- would be puking up his tapioca. And Trump let him off.

 

The next potential big thing now...we'll see...is if Biden decides he's not going to stoop to that level of debate any more and cancels the next two debates. That would be suicide, in my little opinion, but otherwise Biden just needs to not go full Biden on video because he and Harris avoiding the media is probably their safest bet right now.

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Just now, IDBillzFan said:

 

Trump's biggest mistake last night was interrupting Biden. I'm not smart enough to weigh in on the whole gladiator thing, but there were a few times you could tell Biden -- left to his own thoughts -- would be puking up his tapioca. And Trump let him off.

 

The next potential big thing now...we'll see...is if Biden decides he's not going to stoop to that level of debate any more and cancels the next two debates. That would be suicide, in my little opinion, but otherwise Biden just needs to not go full Biden on video because he and Harris avoiding the media is probably their safest bet right now.

I don't see that happening, particularly because he'll think he can go all Bill Clinton touchy-feely in a Town Hall type forum.

Plus the Commission on Debates is apparently going to tighten up the interruption rules -- mic kill switch, anyone?

I agree with you. I'm no Biden fan, but I really don't want a second Trump term, and I was kind of sweating the first 10-15 minutes. Trump had an excellent, measured prepared response on the SCt question, Biden didn't, and Trump then got aggressive enough with his interruptions to put Biden back on his heels and start looking old and bad. But then Trump managed to step all over his good points (including his zingers) by just keeping up the pugnacious style for too long, Joe held up ok, and it wound up doing no good for Trump and potentially a little harm.

That's my honest non-partisan take. My partisan take: Biden killed the "Joe is Senile" meme last night, so Trump just wasted about 9 months of trying to define him. It's not sticking like Crooked Hillary stuck, or Low-Energy Jeb. He hasn't found the weak spot to exploit, so he's reeling.

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The race between South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democrat Jaime Harrison is tied, according to another new poll released Wednesday.

Harrison and Graham are tied at 48 percent among likely voters, according to the Quinnipiac University poll. It matches a handful of recent public surveys this month that have shown the two candidates deadlocked as Graham faces the toughest reelection campaign of his career.

 

The contest between President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden is also very close, despite Trump carrying South Carolina easily four years ago. Trump leads Biden, 48 percent to 47 percent in the poll, which was conducted prior to the presidential debate Tuesday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/30/south-carolina-elections-quinnipiac-poll-423835

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And another one:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-debate-poll/

 

We know enough now to say that Biden is clearly perceived as the winner of the debate.

It didn't move preferences much, if at all, but time is running out for Donald J. Trump ...

 

Biden got higher marks for his performance — and his policies

How respondents rated each candidate’s debate performance and their answers on policies

  PERFORMANCE POLICIES
CANDIDATE GOOD POOR GOOD POOR
Trump 32.9% 66.2% 39.1% 57.4%
Biden 59.7 39.1 56.6 39.2

Only among respondents who said that they had watched some or all of the debate.

Debate watchers were pretty decisive in their verdict of last night’s performances: Only about one-third said Trump’s performance was “somewhat good” or “very good,” and 50 percent said it was “very poor.” Biden’s performance was more positively received, with around 60 percent saying they thought he performed well. Respondents gave more mixed grades on how they thought the candidates outlined their policies, but Biden received better marks here, too: Almost 60 percent said they thought his policies were “somewhat good” or “very good,” compared to about 40 percent who said the same for Trump.

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Time is running out for The Donald. And Repub Senators are starting to panic. My Colorado Republican Senator, Cory Gardner -- a middle of the roader; I actually voted for him in 2016 -- is pretty much toast. He got himself in a bind, avoiding doing any appearances with Trump or associating himself with the Trump agenda. But Trump doesn't allow that, and he pretty much forced Cory into a joint campaign appearance last year -- it was an implied "Do it or get primaried by a Trumpie."  And as soon as he did it, it was over for him. It's also telling that the party is still throwing money at his race instead of cutting losses and trying to save someone else -- there's really nowhere else to apply the money if they're gonna try to keep the Senate.

 

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/

 

The Senate

Map 2: Crystal Ball Senate ratings

 

2020_10_01_Senate_Ratings_600.png

 

Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February.

The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits.

 

Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February.

The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits.

Edited by The Frankish Reich
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10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Time is running out for The Donald. And Repub Senators are starting to panic. My Colorado Republican Senator, Cory Gardner -- a middle of the roader; I actually voted for him in 2016 -- is pretty much toast. He got himself in a bind, avoiding doing any appearances with Trump or associating himself with the Trump agenda. But Trump doesn't allow that, and he pretty much forced Cory into a joint campaign appearance last year -- it was an implied "Do it or get primaried by a Trumpie."  And as soon as he did it, it was over for him. It's also telling that the party is still throwing money at his race instead of cutting losses and trying to save someone else -- there's really nowhere else to apply the money if they're gonna try to keep the Senate.

 

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/biden-lead-looks-firmer-as-midwest-moves-his-way/

 

The Senate

Map 2: Crystal Ball Senate ratings

 

2020_10_01_Senate_Ratings_600.png

 

Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February.

The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits.

 

Last week, the Crystal Ball downgraded the prospects of Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) — we now rate the four-term Maine senator as an underdog against her Democratic challenger, state House Speaker Sara Gideon. Aside from Collins, the only Republican senator running in a Clinton state this year is Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO). Colorado, at least in 2016, voted a couple of points more Democratic than Maine, and Gardner hasn’t had decades to cultivate a personal brand — as Collins has — so we’ve had his race at Leans Democratic since February.

The picture for Trump is not good in the Centennial State: as of Wednesday, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight give Biden a clean 51%-41% advantage. As one Republican operative summed up in July, “Jesus Christ himself couldn’t overperform Trump by double digits.” Senate polling since then has born this out: while Gardner generally performs better than Trump, he often lags his Democratic challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D-CO), by high single-digits.

The magically shrinking Republican party 

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https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/following-rocky-debate-biden-takes-lead-over-trump-latest-exclusive-channel-2-poll/LFMKYZZ2C5DVFE3J7HKNK2653U/

Biden leading in GEORGIA 47-45. One month ago it was Trump 47, Biden 40 in the same poll. Basically 100% of undecideds breaking for Biden

Within the margin of error, and I don't think he'll win Georgia, but another sign of how devastating that debate was for Trump.

 

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