Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[The Frankish Reich]

On 9/14/2020 at 9:52 AM, B-Man said:

 

I'm convinced. Sean Davis, former senior policy advisor to Rick Perry, has a solid track record of being right on the money:

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rick-perry-criticizes-donald-trump-destroy-republican-party-120482

[Putin]

Is Joe out of the basement  and smelling females hair yet ? 

[Putin]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Yep, but no super spreader rallies. Biden isn’t knocking anyone dead, like Trump is 

Biden doesn’t need rallies cuz it takes people to fill them ! 

[Big Blitz]

6 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Yep, but no super spreader rallies. Biden isn’t knocking anyone dead, like Trump is 

 

 

Truth

 

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Trump is killing American citizens. You are like, so? 

 

Trump is a murderer 

 

 

...how YOU have escaped his throes is WELL beyond me.......

[SectionC3]

11 minutes ago, OldTimeAFLGuy said:

 

 

...how YOU have escaped his throes is WELL beyond me.......

I wear a 50 cent mask.  Unlike the stooges who follow Trump. 

30 minutes ago, Putin said:

Biden doesn’t need rallies cuz it takes people to fill them ! 

Tulsa says hi! 

[Putin]

2 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

I wear a 50 cent mask.  Unlike the stooges who follow Trump. 

Tulsa says hi! 

Im talking about a crowd of more then 2 people ! 
And if wearing mask is so safe I guess we can actually go and vote right ?? 
like we do when we go to buy our groceries?

Edited September 15, 2020 by Putin

[SectionC3]

55 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm convinced. Sean Davis, former senior policy advisor to Rick Perry, has a solid track record of being right on the money:

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rick-perry-criticizes-donald-trump-destroy-republican-party-120482

There’s a difference between party membership and ideological identification .  That matters. 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, SectionC3 said:

There’s a difference between party membership and ideological identification .  That matters. 

Agreed. We don't know party affiliation until the exit polls are taken. Read any good polling expert -- simply sampling according to party identification at this stage will result in a bad poll.

[SectionC3]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Agreed. We don't know party affiliation until the exit polls are taken. Read any good polling expert -- simply sampling according to party identification at this stage will result in a bad poll.

Agreed.  And asking how one identifies is different from asking how one is registered.  And that might explain the anomaly v 2016 that Davis notes.  

3 minutes ago, Putin said:

Im talking about a crowd of more then 2 people ! 
And if wearing mask is so safe I guess we can actually go and vote right ?? 
like we do when we go to buy our groceries?

We could.  And we can vote absentee, which is by mail, just like Trump!  If we can golf, then we can vote in person, right??

[Putin]

7 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Agreed.  And asking how one identifies is different from asking how one is registered.  And that might explain the anomaly v 2016 that Davis notes.  

We could.  And we can vote absentee, which is by mail, just like Trump!  If we can golf, then we can vote in person, right??

So we can go vote in person right ?? 
or are we going to die ? 
but feel free to add golf or Trump in your response 

Edited September 15, 2020 by Putin

[SectionC3]

42 minutes ago, Putin said:

So we can go vote in person right ?? 
or are we going to die ? 
but feel free to add golf or Trump in your response 

Maybe both!  But the buck stops at the top.  If trump can golf he can vote in person.  He didn’t, and he has no non-hoax ground upon which to challenge absentee voting.  And neither do you! 

[IDBillzFan]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I'm convinced. Sean Davis, former senior policy advisor to Rick Perry, has a solid track record of being right on the money:

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/rick-perry-criticizes-donald-trump-destroy-republican-party-120482

 

Is there anything more predictable than a leftist using 'shoot the messenger' as their primary way to argue a point?

 

 

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, IDBillzFan said:

 

Is there anything more predictable than a leftist using 'shoot the messenger' as their primary way to argue a point?

 

 

 

 

What makes you think I'm a leftist?

Because I don't suffer fools posting idiotic takes on polling like this Sean Davis?

[IDBillzFan]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

What makes you think I'm a leftist?

Because I don't suffer fools posting idiotic takes on polling like this Sean Davis?

 

Because leftists  always make lazy posts like yours. No original thought. Just "I don't like the guy's message, so I'll mock the guy and not the message."

 

Lazy, leftist, predictable.

 

But hey...it doesn't completely mean you're a leftist. Maybe you're a Canadian, which is even lazier than being a leftist. Or maybe leftists aren't left ENOUGH for you, and you're more of a Che guy.

 

[Putin]

33 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Maybe both!  But the buck stops at the top.  If trump can golf he can vote in person.  He didn’t, and he has no non-hoax ground upon which to challenge absentee voting.  And neither do you! 

 

thanks for trying I know it’s not easy to give a straight answer 

[The Frankish Reich]

32 minutes ago, IDBillzFan said:

 

Because leftists  always make lazy posts like yours. No original thought. Just "I don't like the guy's message, so I'll mock the guy and not the message."

 

Lazy, leftist, predictable.

 

But hey...it doesn't completely mean you're a leftist. Maybe you're a Canadian, which is even lazier than being a leftist. Or maybe leftists aren't left ENOUGH for you, and you're more of a Che guy.

 

Yep, that's me with the Che poster on my wall.

Seriously -- some responses are snarky, some serious. After the initial snark, if you scroll up you'll see a well-informed exchange between me and another poster about why Sean Davis has thrown an extraordinarily lazy take on polling and sampling error up on his twitter. So it makes sense to point out that perhaps this is because he is a hack -- a hack who previously helped work on policy for Rick Perry that was in absolute opposition to that other "Death of the Republican Party" guy who got the nomination, only to see him start churning out geez-I-wish-it-were-true polling "analysis."

Enough explanation for you?

[IDBillzFan]

3 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Yep, that's me with the Che poster on my wall.

Seriously -- some responses are snarky, some serious. After the initial snark, if you scroll up you'll see a well-informed exchange between me and another poster about why Sean Davis has thrown an extraordinarily lazy take on polling and sampling error up on his twitter. So it makes sense to point out that perhaps this is because he is a hack -- a hack who previously helped work on policy for Rick Perry that was in absolute opposition to that other "Death of the Republican Party" guy who got the nomination, only to see him start churning out geez-I-wish-it-were-true polling "analysis."

Enough explanation for you?

 

You're definitely showing growth.

[Tiberius]

16 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Truth

 

 

So? No one cares. 

 

 

How is Trump getting so destroyed in Wisconsin??? 

 

Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 52, Trump 46	Biden +6
Minnesota: Trump vs. Biden	ABC News/Wash Post	Biden 57, Trump 41	Biden +16
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	The Hill/HarrisX	Biden 45, Trump 39	Biden +6
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	USC Dornsife	Biden 50, Trump 43	Biden +7
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	OH Predictive Insights	Kelly 52, McSally 42	Kelly +10
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	USC Dornsife	Democrats 50, Republicans 45	Democrats +5

[Tiberius]

 

 

 

Trump’s nightmare is coming true: Two ‘blue wall’ states aren’t even close

Democratic vice-presidential nominee Kamala D. Harris speaks to a participant during a roundtable in Milwaukee on Sept. 7. (Kerem Yucel/AFP/Getty Images)

Opinion by 

Jennifer Rubin

Columnist

September 16, 2020 at 10:00 a.m. EDT

Add to list

Public polling for the presidential election shows tight races, with former vice president Joe Biden ahead in North Carolina (1 percentage point), Florida (2.4), Texas (about 1 point) and President Trump ahead in Georgia (by less than 2 points). Before going further, let’s appreciate what rotten results these are for Trump. He is performing much worse than any GOP nominee since 1976. (It would be as if Biden had not nailed down Connecticut.) In Georgia, a Republican has not done this poorly since 1992. For Trump to be struggling with what should be slam-dunk states at this stage in the race is a sign for him and his supporters that something is really wrong.

What is even more remarkable is that Biden does not remotely need to win any of them. That he is even competitive in these states suggests he is running well above Hillary Clinton’s 2016 performance. He could lose all of them and still not break a sweat in winning the electoral college.

 

The states that are not really close at all are Michigan and Wisconsin, where Biden leads by averages of 7.5 and 6.8 percentage points, respectively. If Biden wins those states, as seems increasingly likely, even after Trump’s racial scare-mongering in Kenosha, Wis., he would need only one of the following to win (assuming everything else falls as it did in 2016): Pennsylvania (where Biden is up by nearly 5 points); Arizona (where Biden is up by about 5 points); plus a single delegate from Nebraska’s second congressional district; Florida; North Carolina; or Georgia.

AD

 

 

Put differently, unless Trump can reverse the trajectory of the race in Michigan and Wisconsin, he has to win practically every other competitive state. What is remarkable, however, is how badly he is doing in Wisconsin, once thought to be the hardest of the three critical Rust Belt states (along with Michigan and Pennsylvania) for Biden to win.

The latest CNN poll, in which Biden leads by 10 points among likely voters in Wisconsin, is revealing. “Biden is widely viewed as more apt to unite the country (55% to 36%) and handle racial inequality in the US (55% to 38%). He is more trusted by a 13-point margin on the coronavirus outbreak (54% to 41%),” CNN reports. “He is more often seen as having a clear plan to solve the country’s problems (49% to 43%) and has the edge on keeping Americans safe from harm (50% to 45%).” On what is supposed to be Trump’s strongest issue, the economy, it is a statistical tie. Even after Trump’s bashing of Biden as low energy or mentally slow (“projection” really is a thing), the candidates are within the margin of error on stamina and sharpness.

According to the CNN poll, Biden has huge leads among women (24 points), college graduates (28 points), White college graduates (27 points), independents (28 points) and moderates (46 points). He even leads among non-college graduates by 1 point. Trump’s leads among the strongest segments of his base are weak — among men, 3 points, and White non-college graduates, 8 points, and are not nearly enough to make up for his huge deficits elsewhere.

[Tiberius]

A Democratic controlled Senate looking more and more likely 

 

Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon	Quinnipiac	Gideon 54, Collins 42	Gideon +12
South Carolina Senate - Graham vs. Harrison	Quinnipiac	Graham 48, Harrison 48	Tie
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	OH Predictive Insights	Kelly 52, McSally 42	Kelly +10

[Tiberius]

It will be an early night in Florida and NC go for the good guys! After that it will be cleaning up the malcontents. Punish! 

 

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	USA Today/Suffolk*	Biden 46, Trump 43	Biden +3
Utah: Trump vs. Biden	Deseret News/Hinckley Inst.*	Trump 53, Biden 35	Trump +18
California: Trump vs. Biden	PPIC*	Biden 60, Trump 31	Biden +29
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	USA Today/Suffolk*	Cunningham 42, Tillis 38	Cunningham +4
North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper	USA Today/Suffolk*	Cooper 50, Forest 38	Cooper +12
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 51, Disapprove 48	Approve +3

Wednesday, September 16

[Tiberius]

Trump still leading with white men without education 

[RochesterRob]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Trump still leading with white men without education 

  Kind of an oddity seeing as you dislike Trump.

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Kind of an oddity seeing as you dislike Trump.

But I am educated  

[RochesterRob]

Just now, Tiberius said:

But I am educated  

  Well, yes.  But going to BOCES for hair styling (used to be known as barbering) is not the same as going to UR for physics.  

[Tiberius]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Well, yes.  But going to BOCES for hair styling (used to be known as barbering) is not the same as going to UR for physics.  

You found me out! 

 

 

[Tiberius]

New poll shows close races for president, Senate in Arizona

Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) at an event in Mesa, Ariz., on Aug. 11, 2020. (Ross D. Franklin/AP)

A Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows a tight race for the White House and Senate in Arizona, a state that Trump won four years ago but that has become a fiercely contested battleground.

The poll shows that 48 percent of registered voters in the state support Biden, while 44 percent back Trump. Those numbers have changed only slightly since March, when Biden took 46 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.

The latest survey was conducted Sept. 11-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 percentage points.

In the Senate race, the poll shows Democrat Mark Kelly winning the support of 50 percent of registered voters, while 44 percent back Sen. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.). Kelly has a wide lead among Democrats (97 percent) and independents (60 percent), while McSally is supported by 88 percent of Republicans.

McSally ran for Senate in 2018 but lost to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. Gov. Doug Ducey (R) later appointed McSally to the state’s other Senate seat, which was formerly held by Republican Sen. John McCain.

“Kelly is simply well-liked by voters and McSally already has a recent loss under her belt. The advantage of her appointed incumbency seems to be providing limited benefit,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement.

Scott Clement contributed to this report.

[Tiberius]

Cook Political Report moves Arizona to 'lean Democrat' in Biden-Trump race

BY MAX GREENWOOD - 09/17/20 09:24 AM EDT

 

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/516842-cook-political-report-moves-arizona-to-lean-dem-in-biden-trump-race

[Tiberius]

From 30,000 feet, the presidential race looks much as it did when we first launched our presidential election forecast in August. Joe Biden has about a 3 in 4 chance of winning compared to President Trump’s roughly 1 in 4 shot, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. Biden’s chances did dip down to a 2 in 3 shot after the Republican National Convention on Aug. 31, but overall, his chances of winning have hung out in the low- to mid-70 percent range. By contrast, Trump’s chances have mostly bounced around in the mid- to high-20s.

But underneath the topline numbers, there has still been some fairly big movement in a handful of key battleground states, and the news has been mostly good for Biden. If we look at how much Biden’s odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Biden’s improvement has been considerable — +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida, although he hasn’t lost much ground in states such as Georgia and Ohio, which may signal that Biden’s electoral gains will not be that expansive. (Trump still leads in Texas, for instance, despite Biden’s improvement there.)

Biden’s odds improved in most battleground states

Change in Joe Biden’s chances of winning in states where he or Donald Trump has at least a 10 percent chance of winning, between forecast launch on Aug. 12 and Sept. 16 (as of 9:30 a.m. ET)

	BIDEN’S CHANCE OF WINNING
STATE	AUG. 12	SEPT. 16	CHANGE
Minnesota	71.8%	86.6%	+14.8
Arizona	55.2	67.6	+12.4
Wisconsin	69.8	79.9	+10.0
Michigan	81.2	86.9	+5.7
Maine	77.3	82.6	+5.3
North Carolina	49.0	52.9	+3.9
Nevada	76.7	80.2	+3.5
Pennsylvania	73.4	75.8	+2.4
Texas	29.1	31.4	+2.3
Iowa	31.4	33.5	+2.0
Colorado	84.9	86.4	+1.5
New Hampshire	71.6	73.0	+1.3
Georgia	34.3	35.4	+1.2
Montana	12.1	13.0	+1.0
Alaska	19.0	19.6	+0.7
Ohio	44.8	45.2	+0.4
Mississippi	12.8	12.9	+0.1
South Carolina	12.8	12.8	+0.0
Missouri	12.9	10.3	-2.6
Florida	64.1	60.7	-3.4

But Biden’s improvement in Arizona is particularly noteworthy as Arizona is a cornerstone of most Electoral College maps in which Trump wins. That is, if Trump carries the state, he wins the election 59 percent of time, according to our forecast; but if Biden wins Arizona, Trump has less than a 7 percent chance of winning overall. And three polls released in the last few days show Biden ahead in the Grand Canyon State, although by varying margins. A CBS News/YouGov poll found him up by 3 points while a Gravis Marketing surveygave him just a 2-point lead over Trump. But an OH Predictive Insights pollgave Biden a much larger 10-point advantage, 52 percent to 42 percent.

Meanwhile, Biden’s improvement in Minnesota is also bad news for Trump, as the campaign has long viewed Minnesota as a potential target to expand the map — the president only lost the state by about 2 points in 2016. However, Minnesota seems to be steadily moving away from Trump. An ABC News/Washington Post survey released today gave Biden a sizable 16-point edge, 57 percent to 41 percent, among likely voters. And two separate polls released this weekend by CBS News/YouGov and the New York Times/Siena College each found Biden ahead by 9 points in Minnesota, 50 percent to 41 percent. Still, a Morning Consult survey released yesterday might buoy the Trump campaign’s hopes of breaking through in Minnesota, as it put Biden’s lead at only 4 points. And Trump is doing better in Wisconsin, although he’s still an underdog there as recent polls suggest Biden has a fairly sizable advantage. A CNN/SSRS survey released yesterday gave Biden a 10-point lead, while an ABC News/Washington Post survey out today gave Biden a 6-point edge. And this past weekend, the New York Times/Siena College found Biden up by 5 points there.

Florida is the only battleground state where Trump’s odds have increased appreciably, but that’s an important silver lining for the president, as winning Florida is make or break for Trump’s chances of winning the election. If Trump wins the Sunshine State, he wins the presidency in 57 percent of our forecast’s simulations, while a Biden win there would give Trump less than a 2 percent shot at victory. And at this point, Florida polls continue to give Trump a decent shot at winning the state, although they haven’t been universally positive. Perhaps most notably, a poll released on Tuesday by Monmouth University found Biden up by 3 to 5 points among likely voters, depending on turnout. However, another poll out yesterday from Florida Atlantic University found the two candidates tied in a dead heat at 50 percent after undecided voters were pushed to pick a candidate, so at this point, Florida remains ultra-competitive with Trump gaining ground there.

[BillsFanNC]

 

[Tiberius]

ace/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 45, Trump 44	Biden +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 49, Trump 40	Biden +9
Maine: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 55, Trump 38	Biden +17
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 45	Biden +2
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	EPIC-MRA	Biden 48, Trump 40	Biden +8
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	EPIC-MRA	Peters 45, James 41	Peters +4
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	NY Times/Siena	Kelly 50, McSally 42	Kelly +8
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon	NY Times/Siena*	Gideon 49, Collins 44	Gideon +5
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	NY Times/Siena*	Cunningham 42, Tillis 37	Cunningham +5

[BillsFanNC]

 

[Tiberius]

3 hours ago, BillsFanNC said:

 

And if they are as correct as 2018 we will have a Big Blue Wave!!! 

[SectionC3]

6 hours ago, Tiberius said:

ace/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 45, Trump 44	Biden +1
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena*	Biden 49, Trump 40	Biden +9
Maine: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 55, Trump 38	Biden +17
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden	NY Times/Siena	Biden 47, Trump 45	Biden +2
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	EPIC-MRA	Biden 48, Trump 40	Biden +8
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	EPIC-MRA	Peters 45, James 41	Peters +4
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	NY Times/Siena	Kelly 50, McSally 42	Kelly +8
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon	NY Times/Siena*	Gideon 49, Collins 44	Gideon +5
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	NY Times/Siena*	Cunningham 42, Tillis 37	Cunningham +5

Could be a lot of money flowing into Maine CD2 at the end of this thing.  Donnie is going to need every EC vote he can get his greasy little fingers on.  AZ numbers are borderline shocking.  And Collins looks like she’s pretty close to toast.   Gonna be a lot of ads that show her with Trump as we wind this thing down. 

[Orlando Tim]

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_sep18

 

Tibs how about the only poll that at least attempts to be honest and the only one who was close on all 50 states last time? 

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Timmy said:

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_sep18

 

Tibs how about the only poll that at least attempts to be honest and the only one who was close on all 50 states last time? 

Rasmussen is garbage 

[Tiberius]

 

 

All summer long, we’ve been warned: Yes, Joe Biden is ahead in the polls — but so was Hillary Clinton.

There’s one key difference that’s often overlooked, though. Biden is much closer to the magic 50 percent mark — both nationally and in key Electoral College battleground states. That puts Trump in a significantly worse situation, needing to not only attract skeptical undecided voters but also peel supporters away from Biden, whose poll numbers have been remarkably durable.

Advertisement

And the president is running out of time for both.

According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Biden is sitting at 49.3 percent in national surveys and has a 6.2 percentage point lead over President Donald Trump. That’s significantly higher than Clinton’s 44.9 percent mark this time four years ago, which was good for only a 1 point lead. 

It’s the same story in many of the battleground states: Biden is at or within 2 points of majority support in enough states to lock down an Electoral College victory, compared with Clinton’s low- to mid-40s scores in mid-September 2016 in the same states, some of which she would end up losing as late-deciding voters went decisively for Trump.

“One of the worries that kept me up at night in ’16 was we just always felt like there was a bigger number of undecideds. And if they broke predominantly in a direction, then the whole thing could change,” said Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist and the executive director of a pro-Biden super PAC. “I don’t think there was a single poll in Florida that had [Clinton] over 48 percent. I think that was the case in a lot of places.”

 

2020 ELECTIONS

Poll: Biden up by 9 points in Arizona, tied with Trump in North Carolina

 

BY QUINT FORGEY

 

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/18/joe-biden-polls-electoral-college-417880

[BullBuchanan]

On 9/18/2020 at 10:01 AM, BillsFanNC said:

 

[US Egg]