Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[SoTier]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

People know the economy was going gangbusters before Covid. Do people think Biden's stated plan for a continuing and even more severe lockdown along with repealing the Trump tax cuts and tax credits for families, as well as having to accommodate the Green New Deal zealots something that is likely to produce prosperity? I think large numbers of blue collar folks, middle America, Hispanics, and African Americans know Trump's policies work. Not buying the economy is a bad issue for Trump.

 

"It's the economy, stupid" -- defacto campaign slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign.

 

New unemployment claims have been running about 750-800k weekly since about late August.  The unemployment rate is running about 8%.  Entire industries like travel and tourism and entertainment have been devastated.  Small businesses coast to coast are failing with regularity.

 

In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency in a landslide over Al Smith.  In 1932, because of the Great Depression that Hoover couldn't deal with effectively, he lost in an even bigger landslide to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, and the Republicans didn't win the White House for the next twenty years.

 

The US economy isn't going to significantly improve until the pandemic is brought under control, and Trump has proven incapable and disinterested in doing that.  

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

"It's the economy, stupid" -- defacto campaign slogan for Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign.

 

New unemployment claims have been running about 750-800k weekly since about late August.  The unemployment rate is running about 8%.  Entire industries like travel and tourism and entertainment have been devastated.  Small businesses coast to coast are failing with regularity.

 

In 1928, Republican Herbert Hoover won the presidency in a landslide over Al Smith.  In 1932, because of the Great Depression that Hoover couldn't deal with effectively, he lost in an even bigger landslide to Democrat Franklin Roosevelt, and the Republicans didn't win the White House for the next twenty years.

 

The US economy isn't going to significantly improve until the pandemic is brought under control, and Trump has proven incapable and disinterested in doing that.  

 

 

What a change! 

[Tiberius]

WASHINGTON - With less than three weeks to go before Nov. 3, more than 14 million Americans have voted in the fall election, reflecting an extraordinary level of participation despite barriers erected by the coronavirus pandemic - and setting a trajectory that could result in the majority of voters casting ballots before Election Day for the first time in U.S. history.

In Georgia this week, voters waited as long as 11 hours to cast their ballots on the first day of early voting. In North Carolina, nearly 1 in 5 of roughly 500,000 who have returned mail ballots did not vote in the last presidential election. In Michigan, more than 1 million people - roughly one-fourth of total turnout in 2016 - have voted.

 

The picture is so stark that election officials across the country are reporting record early turnout, much of it in person, meaning that more results could be available on election night than previously thought.

 

 

Much of the early voting appears to be driven by heightened enthusiasm among Democrats. Of the roughly 3.5 million voters who have cast ballots in six states that provide partisan breakdowns, registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by roughly 2 to 1, according to a Washington Post analysis of data in Florida, Kentucky, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

 

Those who have voted include disproportionate numbers of Black voters and women, according to state data - groups that favor former vice president Joe Biden over President Donald Trump in recent polls.

 

https://www.newstimes.com/news/article/Democratic-enthusiasm-propels-early-voting-15648455.php

[The Frankish Reich]

Today's poll releases -- not much for the Repubs to hang their hat on here in this sea of blue ink:

 

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	OH Predictive Insights	Biden 50, Trump 47	Biden +3
Arizona: Trump vs. Biden	Monmouth*	Biden 51, Trump 44	Biden +7
Maine: Trump vs. Biden	Pan Atlantic	Biden 50, Trump 40	Biden +10
Maine CD2: Trump vs. Biden	Pan Atlantic	Biden 47, Trump 43	Biden +4
Maine CD1: Trump vs. Biden	Pan Atlantic	Biden 54, Trump 37	Biden +17
Virginia: Trump vs. Biden	Roanoke College*	Biden 54, Trump 39	Biden +15
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Biden 53, Trump 42	Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	IBD/TIPP	Biden 50, Trump 42, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1	Biden +8
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	OH Predictive Insights	Kelly 50, McSally 45	Kelly +5
Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly	Monmouth*	Kelly 52, McSally 42	Kelly +10
Maine Senate - Collins vs. Gideon	Pan Atlantic*	Gideon 47, Collins 40	Gideon +7
Michigan Senate - James vs. Peters	EPIC-MRA	Peters 45, James 39	Peters +6
Virginia Senate - Gade vs. Warner	Roanoke College	Warner 55, Gade 38	Warner +17
Maine 2nd District - Crafts vs. Golden	Pan Atlantic	Golden 60, Crafts 33	Golden +27
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 47, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +4
President Trump Job Approval	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Approve 44, Disapprove 54	Disapprove +10
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Democrats 49, Republicans 42	Democrats +7
Direction of Country	NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl	Right Direction 29, Wrong Track 62	Wrong Track +33

[Doc Brown]

21 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

When the economy is doing poorly, which is the case with the US economy despite to Trump's assertions otherwise, incumbents suffer.  Both Carter and Bush 41, the only elected Presidents in the last half century to serve only 1 term were both done in by poor economies.   High voter turnout frequently reflects voters' dissatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, whether president or governor.

It's a different situation as the economy was doing great since at least 2013 and then you had to shut the whole damn thing down because of this virus.  It's unprecented.  The only advantage Trump has on the polls is who thinks they'll handle the economy better (usually by a few percentage points).  The top two concerns are Covid (#1) and the economy (#2).  Biden polls double digits better when it comes to who they think would better handle Covid.

 

16 hours ago, 3rdnlng said:

Carter not only lost because the economy sucked but because he was such a pessimist. His idea of fighting the energy crisis was to put on an extra sweater and turn the thermostat down. Reagan was like a breath of fresh air and had his own MAGA program proposed in a much more artful way.

 

Bush 41's economy was turning upward as Clinton with the help of Ross Perot beat him. Without Perot being in the race Bush would have won easily. 

That's a common myth.  People who look at polling for a living make the case that Perot hurt Clinton more.  Clinton was just a more skilled politician as Bush road the cotails of Reagan.  

[Backintheday544]

6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's a different situation as the economy was doing great since at least 2013 and then you had to shut the whole damn thing down because of this virus.  It's unprecented.  The only advantage Trump has on the polls is who thinks they'll handle the economy better (usually by a few percentage points).  The top two concerns are Covid (#1) and the economy (#2).  Biden polls double digits better when it comes to who they think would better handle Covid.

 

That's a common myth.  People who look at polling for a living make the case that Perot hurt Clinton more.  Clinton was just a more skilled politician as Bush road the cotails of Reagan.  

 

On your second point, without numbers, I feel Republicans don't go 3rd party as much historically.

[The Frankish Reich]

This one is interesting:  https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/923946468/poll-biden-takes-double-digit-lead-over-trump

I recall seeing one of these about Biden c. 2008 or 2012 and the leading word was "buffoon" or something like that. Now it's "honest." No wonder Trump is hell-bent on publicizing the Hunter thing.

 

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about President Trump. "Incompetent" stood out.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about former Vice President Joe Biden as president. The word "honest" stood out, but there were plenty of negatives too.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll

[GETTOTHE50]

joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together.

[Backintheday544]

34 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together.

 

This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else?

[GETTOTHE50]

36 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else?

 

never said trump was mr honest integrity either. but i do think trumps outer voice is the same as his inner voice. cant say that about joe. biden might not even have an inner voice anymore

[Backintheday544]

2 minutes ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

 

never said trump was mr honest integrity either. but i do think trumps outer voice is the same as his inner voice. cant say that about joe. biden might not even have an inner voice anymore

 

So what was your point of saying "joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together"

 

Why didn't you comment on Trump's disconnect with reality? What point did you try to prove with the comment quoted above?

 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, GETTOTHE50 said:

joe biden and honesty havent ever even had a cup of tea together.

Yeah I wouldn't call any politician honest probably more of a thing being directly  compared to Trump.

[Big Gun]

58 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

This is interesting. This is where I hear the phrase GOProjection a ton. So you say Biden lies. So ok, for sake of argument let's say that's true (he's a politician so probably) but if you support Trump, how can you hold lying against someone else?

Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz.

[Backintheday544]

1 minute ago, Big Gun said:

Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz.

 

1. Mexico will pay for the wall

2. Insulin is now cheaper than water

3. 2018  mid-terms - vote for me and I have a middle class tax cut

4. I have a health care plan I'm about to release (none released yet)

5. ....more?

 

[The Frankish Reich]

My point in pasting the NPR word cloud thing isn't to argue that Biden really is "honest," it's that despite all the criticism of his campaign, he's managed to pull public opinion in that direction. Or maybe it's just that perceptions of honesty are comparative, and here the comparison is Trump.

Edited October 16, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[Big Gun]

4 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

1. Mexico will pay for the wall

2. Insulin is now cheaper than water

3. 2018  mid-terms - vote for me and I have a middle class tax cut

4. I have a health care plan I'm about to release (none released yet)

5. ....more?

 

Bravo, now name the things Biden and the Dems have lied about.

[Backintheday544]

1 minute ago, Big Gun said:

Bravo, now name the things Biden and the Dems have lied about.

 

Can't. I'm too busy moving your goalposts.

[Warcodered]

16 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

Name the things Trump has lied about, with proof not just your feelz.

The first thing he did when put in office was lie about the size of the crowd at his inauguration, nobody even cared he just couldn't help himself.

[Big Gun]

40 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Can't. I'm too busy moving your goalposts.

Of course you wont. You're pathetic.

[The Frankish Reich]

43 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

The first thing he did when put in office was lie about the size of the crowd at his inauguration, nobody even cared he just couldn't help himself.

I'd forgotten about that.

And then it was immediately followed with the "I really won the popular vote if you take away fraudulent votes." That resulted in the Mike Pence "Voter Integrity Commission" which quietly folded without making any findings at all.

[Backintheday544]

3 minutes ago, Big Gun said:

Of course you wont. You're pathetic.

You lose an argument when have nothing to say except name calling.

 

You asked for Trump lies, I need them. Someone else even named them. You then asked for Dem lies. Clearly moving your position. You're response to that was name calling. I'm sorry, but when your response is name calling and not facts, you lose the.debate.

 

There's a ton of great posters here. Billsfannc is awesome he says things and backs it up. You haven't. Your argument for your position is name calling.

 

[Taro T]

22 hours ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

Yes they do. Golan Sachs even modelled that a blue wave would be better for the economy than a Trump win: https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-biden-blue-wave-boost-growth-goldman-sachs-2020-10-1029649255

 

Getting back on topic, 538's model now has Biden at an 87 percent chance of victory https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

For reference, Hilary was about a 70 percent change on election night in 2016.

 

 

A Biden win won't help the economy but it will help the Dow & the S&P as additional regulations make it tougher for new competitors to enter.

 

Those companies will also be helped by better access to cheap Chinese labor.

[Taro T]

10 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It's a different situation as the economy was doing great since at least 2013 and then you had to shut the whole damn thing down because of this virus.  It's unprecented.  The only advantage Trump has on the polls is who thinks they'll handle the economy better (usually by a few percentage points).  The top two concerns are Covid (#1) and the economy (#2).  Biden polls double digits better when it comes to who they think would better handle Covid.

That's a common myth.  People who look at polling for a living make the case that Perot hurt Clinton more.  Clinton was just a more skilled politician as Bush road the cotails of Reagan. 

 

Horsehockey!

 

Bush was leading before Perot quit & then most of those Perot voters switched to Clinton.  When he got back in, he got some of those voters back, but not even close to what he had originally.  Most of them stuck w/ Clinton once HRP came back.

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

This one is interesting:  https://www.npr.org/2020/10/15/923946468/poll-biden-takes-double-digit-lead-over-trump

I recall seeing one of these about Biden c. 2008 or 2012 and the leading word was "buffoon" or something like that. Now it's "honest." No wonder Trump is hell-bent on publicizing the Hunter thing.

 

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about President Trump. "Incompetent" stood out.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll asked what word comes to mind when thinking about former Vice President Joe Biden as president. The word "honest" stood out, but there were plenty of negatives too.

NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll

 

The ONLY major US politician in at least 50 years and possibly EVER that got drummed out of an election for being a PLAGIAERISER is most commonly described as "honest?"  Seriously?  Did they poll anyone over the age of 40?

[The Frankish Reich]

14 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

The ONLY major US politician in at least 50 years and possibly EVER that got drummed out of an election for being a PLAGIAERISER is most commonly described as "honest?"  Seriously?  Did they poll anyone over the age of 40?

If they'd polled me "bullshitter" would've been in my top 3. But hey, we're not talking about some kind of absolute truth here, we're talking about perceptions.

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

If they'd polled me "bullshitter" would've been in my top 3. But hey, we're not talking about some kind of absolute truth here, we're talking about perceptions.

 

Fair enough.

 

But that a "bullshitter" like him can be considered honest shows just how broken the system is.

[The Frankish Reich]

Just now, Taro T said:

 

Fair enough.

 

But that a "bullshitter" like him can be considered honest shows just how broken the system is.

Agreed.

I have a certain grudging admiration for the really good bs artist -- the ones you KNOW are bs'ing you, yet you leave the conversation almost charmed by how natural, how seemless it is. 

That's not Joe Biden. It was Bill Clinton for a lot of people - the guy who circulates through the cocktail party and spends precisely 30 seconds talking to you, yet in those 30 seconds you feel like you are truly the most important person to him in the room ... right up until he does it with the next person. That's political skill. 

If Clinton was a 10 out or 10, Biden is probably a 6. It's a little too easy to see through his b.s., almost like he doesn't 100% buy into it himself.

Trump is bad at this (hence the rallies rather than town halls). Speech-making or in Trump's case monologue-giving is a different skill. For Obama the speech making thing made up for less than perfect one-on-one skills, and for Trump the rally spiels serve that purpose.

Just my take after having met -- briefly -- more politicians in my life than I really care to have met.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

Horsehockey!

 

Bush was leading before Perot quit & then most of those Perot voters switched to Clinton.  When he got back in, he got some of those voters back, but not even close to what he had originally.  Most of them stuck w/ Clinton once HRP came back.

If that's true it kind of tells you how weak a candidate Bush was.  The analysis of that election is a statistical nerds dream.

Edited October 16, 2020 by Doc Brown

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

On your second point, without numbers, I feel Republicans don't go 3rd party as much historically.

You're probably right and it has more to do with Republican voters being older on average.

[Taro T]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If that's true it kind of tells you how weak a candidate Bush was.  The analysis of that election is a statistical nerds dream.

 

41 was a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign.  Especially without Lee Atwater available to run his campaign. 

[ALF]

I was a really big Perot supporter, if he was not in the race I would have voted Bush 41 who I liked a lot.

[SDS]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

41 was a weak candidate who ran a poor campaign.  Especially without Lee Atwater available to run his campaign. 

41 hated campaigning. He famously didn’t start campaigning until August 1992, IIRC. That led 42 to drive his numbers down unchallenged.

 

Anyway, my memory isn’t great, but my high level take away of all these retrospectives of the 1992 election was that Perot did not hurt bush. Dartmouth published an interesting paper about this years back. Their claim is that Perot increased people going to the polls by 3%, but decreased Clintons winning margin by 7%. In a separate model, where everyone would technically have been forced to vote, the margins didn’t change. I did not dig deep enough to find out have a model of that situation.

 

Anyway, the conclusion that Perot suppressed Clinton’s margin is along the lines of everything I’ve heard that in the last 28 years. 

 

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/9/280/files/2016/09/LacyBurdenAJPS1999.pdf

[shoshin]

26 minutes ago, SDS said:

41 hated campaigning. He famously didn’t start campaigning until August 1992, IIRC. That led 42 to drive his numbers down unchallenged.

 

Anyway, my memory isn’t great, but my high level take away of all these retrospectives of the 1992 election was that Perot did not hurt bush. Dartmouth published an interesting paper about this years back. Their claim is that Perot increased people going to the polls by 3%, but decreased Clintons winning margin by 7%. In a separate model, where everyone would technically have been forced to vote, the margins didn’t change. I did not dig deep enough to find out have a model of that situation.

 

Anyway, the conclusion that Perot suppressed Clinton’s margin is along the lines of everything I’ve heard that in the last 28 years. 

 

https://cpb-us-e1.wpmucdn.com/sites.dartmouth.edu/dist/9/280/files/2016/09/LacyBurdenAJPS1999.pdf

 

I voted for 41 and always assumed Perot helped Clinton win (Clinton was a good president IMO--quite good until his scandal). But reading that and a few other articles after you shared it, I see that the case for who Perot helped, if anyone, is not clear at all. Thanks for correcting a bad assumption I've always had about the 92 election. I would have said this was crystal clear. 

[SoTier]

9 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

My point in pasting the NPR word cloud thing isn't to argue that Biden really is "honest," it's that despite all the criticism of his campaign, he's managed to pull public opinion in that direction. Or maybe it's just that perceptions of honesty are comparative, and here the comparison is Trump.

 

Elections are won or lost on perceptions.  In 2016, many voters perceived Covid Donnie to be an effective leader -- he was supposedly a "successful businessman" -- but they've learned differently.  Now he has a public record as POTUS, and it says "INCOMPETENCE".   It is what is.

 

9 hours ago, Big Gun said:

Bravo, now name the things Biden and the Dems have lied about.

 

You accused Biden of lying, so you list them -- and include better "proof" than some moron posting unsupport BS on Twitter.

 

7 hours ago, Taro T said:

 

A Biden win won't help the economy but it will help the Dow & the S&P as additional regulations make it tougher for new competitors to enter.

 

Those companies will also be helped by better access to cheap Chinese labor.

 

Let me guess, you get your economic news from Twitter, right?

 

 

[Tiberius]

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 49, Trump 49	Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	Trafalgar Group (R)*	Biden 46, Trump 47	Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden	Mason-Dixon	Biden 48, Trump 45	Biden +3
Hawaii: Trump vs. Biden	HNN/Civil Beat	Biden 61, Trump 28	Biden +33
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	IBD/TIPP	Biden 49, Trump 44, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1	Biden +5
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	Emerson	Cunningham 45, Tillis 44	Cunningham +1
North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper	Emerson	Cooper 50, Forest 46	Cooper +4
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 48, Disapprove 50	Disapprove +2

Thursday, October 15

[Backintheday544]

2 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	Emerson	Biden 49, Trump 49	Tie
Michigan: Trump vs. Biden	Trafalgar Group (R)*	Biden 46, Trump 47	Trump +1
Florida: Trump vs. Biden	Mason-Dixon	Biden 48, Trump 45	Biden +3
Hawaii: Trump vs. Biden	HNN/Civil Beat	Biden 61, Trump 28	Biden +33
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins	IBD/TIPP	Biden 49, Trump 44, Jorgensen 3, Hawkins 1	Biden +5
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	Emerson	Cunningham 45, Tillis 44	Cunningham +1
North Carolina Governor - Forest vs. Cooper	Emerson	Cooper 50, Forest 46	Cooper +4
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 48, Disapprove 50	Disapprove +2

Thursday, October 15

 

That Michigan poll is surprising.

[Tiberius]

1 minute ago, Backintheday544 said:

 

That Michigan poll is surprising.

Trafalgar group always has Trump doing better 

[Backintheday544]

26 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Trafalgar group always has Trump doing better 

 

Looking at the data, the 2 percent undecided is interesting. With the lack of undecided people, I think we will start seeing the polls be a bit more accurate than other years.

 

The other interesting part on the polls is you need to figure about 20 percent of the people polled have already voted. (Basing the 20 percent on how many early voters we've seen already)

[Gary M]

[aristocrat]

trump winning michigan would be surprising.