The Frankish Reich Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Arizona: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 New Hampshire: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 52, Trump 45 Biden +7 New York: Trump vs. Biden Siena* Biden 61, Trump 29 Biden +32 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly USA Today/Suffolk* Kelly 49, McSally 40 Kelly +9 New Hampshire Senate - Messner vs. Shaheen Emerson Shaheen 55, Messner 40 Shaheen +15 New Hampshire Governor - Sununu vs. Feltes Emerson Sununu 55, Feltes 40 Sununu +15 In the category of "posts I wish I'd copied and saved" -- someone here suggested NY may be in play for Trump now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 Most accurate poll after Rasmussen in 2016 So basically Trump is tied which means electoral landslide: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted October 2, 2020 Share Posted October 2, 2020 5 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: In the category of "posts I wish I'd copied and saved" -- someone here suggested NY may be in play for Trump now. Anyone suggesting NY is in play needs psychiatric care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 3, 2020 Share Posted October 3, 2020 The IBD/TIPP poll yesterday was an interesting one: Biden up just 3 points nationally. 538 rates that as an "A/B" grade poll with a modest pro-R "house effect" of just under a point. Whether it's a quirky outlier or something more may become evident next week, although obviously the Trump COVID crisis will make it hard to separate the signal from the noise. Today's state polls continue the larger trend: solid Biden leads, with little movement: Saturday, October 3 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Florida: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 47, Trump 42 Biden +5 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 42 Biden +7 Missouri Governor - Parson vs. Galloway Missouri Scout Parson 51, Galloway 44 Parson +7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 Poll: Trump, Biden Virtually Tied After President’s Coronavirus Diagnosis, Debate The poll, conducted beginning at 7:00 p.m. Friday by John Zogby Strategies and EMI Research Solutions, shows Democrat presidential candidate Joe Biden with 49 percent support and Trump with 47 percent support, with four percent undecided. The same poll showed Biden leading Trump by six points on August 29, 48 to 42 percent, and seven points on July 8, 49 to 42 percent. Biden’s now two-point lead reveals a tightening race. https://www.breitbart.com/2020-election/2020/10/03/poll-trump-biden-virtually-tied-after-presidents-coronavirus-diagnosis-debate/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-scores-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-poll-after-debate-11601816400 Biden opens a 14 point lead as debate fiasco hits Trump hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted October 4, 2020 Share Posted October 4, 2020 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-scores-14-point-lead-over-trump-in-poll-after-debate-11601816400 Biden opens a 14 point lead as debate fiasco hits Trump hard. Sounds familiar................LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 4, 2020 Author Share Posted October 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, B-Man said: Sounds familiar................LOL. It’s not 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 On 10/2/2020 at 5:28 PM, Big Blitz said: Most accurate poll after Rasmussen in 2016 So basically Trump is tied which means electoral landslide: Since you bring up Rasmussen, Rasmussen now has Presidential approval rating at 46 percent. It has seen a steady decline since the first debate. Post Debate, 538 is now giving Biden an 81 percent chance of winning: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ For reference, the night of the election, Hilary was given a 71.4 percent chance: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ RCPs No Toss Up Map now has Biden winning 375-163: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html RCP is based on average polls. When looking at 2016, they were all within the margin for states that mattered excepted Iowa and Wisconsin, which you can see here: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016StateFinalResults.html Senate No Toss Up Map has 51-49 Dems: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html However, there probably is not enough data to see if the news out of NC changes anything. I personally don't think it will. I think sex scandals are really a thing of the past in American politics, we elected a President that paid off a porn star about an affair. That didn't hurt his numbers at all. House is already most likely safe Dem. No interesting Governors races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dragoon Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 9/10 dentists are still recommending Crest toothpaste over the competition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden JTN/RMG Research* Biden 51, Trump 43 Biden +8 Ohio: Trump vs. Biden Trafalgar Group (R)* Biden 44, Trump 48 Trump +4 Arizona: Trump vs. Biden NY Times/Siena* Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 50, Trump 46 Biden +4 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 50, Trump 45 Biden +5 Wisconsin: Trump vs. Biden Reuters/Ipsos Biden 50, Trump 44 Biden +6 Utah: Trump vs. Biden Y2 Analytics Trump 50, Biden 40 Trump +10 Alabama: Trump vs. Biden Auburn Univ. Trump 57, Biden 37 Trump +20 Delaware: Trump vs. Biden University of Delaware* Biden 54, Trump 33 Biden +21 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham PPP (D) Cunningham 48, Tillis 42 Cunningham +6 Arizona Senate - McSally vs. Kelly NY Times/Siena* Kelly 50, McSally 39 Kelly +11 (CNN)Joe Biden's advantage over President Donald Trump has expanded and the former vice president now holds his widest lead of the cycle with less than a month remaining before Election Day, according to a new nationwide CNN Poll conducted by SSRS. Among likely voters, 57% say they back Biden and 41% Trump in the poll that was conducted entirely after the first debate and mostly after the President's coronavirus infection was made public. Regardless of Biden's national lead, the race for the White House will ultimately come down to a handful of swing states that will drive the outcome in the Electoral College. The former vice president leads in several of those critical battlegrounds, but by more narrow margins than his national advantage. A poll is not a prediction of how the election will ultimately turn out but instead is a snapshot of the race as it currently stands. https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/06/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-2020-election/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 Florida: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9 New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14 General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 57, Trump 41 Biden +16 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 45, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reality Check Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: Florida: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk* Biden 45, Trump 45 Tie Florida: Trump vs. Biden UNF Biden 51, Trump 45 Biden +6 Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 48, Trump 39 Biden +9 New Mexico: Trump vs. Biden PPP (D) Biden 53, Trump 39 Biden +14 General Election: Trump vs. Biden CNN Biden 57, Trump 41 Biden +16 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 45, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted October 6, 2020 Author Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 minute ago, Reality Check said: Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reality Check Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Reality Check said: The polls nationally around the election were pretty accurate. The average polls had Clinton +3.3 where is finished +2.1. At 2.1 points nationally, 538 would give Biden less than a 46 percent chance of winning the electoral college: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1301190941110341632 Don't forget there were wild swings in odds in 2016 that you don't get this year. In Late September it was close to 50/50 on 538. The other thing to keep in mind is third party candidates in 2016 were around 5 percent of the vote or 6,000,000ish votes. Compared to 2012, it's about 4,000,000 more. Now Republicans have been trying hard to get 3rd parties on the ballots but have not done well and lost several court battles. In most swing states if a small fraction of the extra 3rd party votes went Hilary, she's have carried those states, like Wisconsin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 Michigan poll shows Biden opening up a 9 point lead https://www.clickondetroit.com/decision-2020/2020/10/06/poll-biden-bolsters-lead-over-trump-in-michigan-after-first-debate/ More interesting is why: he has a 29 point (!) lead among voters 65+ It’s almost as if the message that old folks have a duty to take their chances with COVID so that the young may exercise their Right to Party isn’t all that popular with the highest risk group .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 If all you're going to do is post garbage polls that might as well be copied and pasted from 2016 just don't bother. Unless this is the poll's party breakdown (which is still oversampling Dems) don't bother (this may have been posted idk): US election poll: Trump BEATING Biden despite being hospitalised with Covid – EXCLUSIVE The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent. The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent. The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19. But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”. Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics. Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent. This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden. While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote. https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf Interesting poll. High N, and half conducted post-debate but pre-Walter Reed and half after Trump’s COVID admission, so we can make some comparisons: Pre - WR: Biden up by 8 Post: Biden up by 16 (!) Early returns suggest that dismissing the pandemic fears as a hoax only to then be hospitalized for said hoax is not a winning strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keepthefaith Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 (edited) 39 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=5c55fb27-997d-4bec-aa2c-ceb365f9f0bf Interesting poll. High N, and half conducted post-debate but pre-Walter Reed and half after Trump’s COVID admission, so we can make some comparisons: Pre - WR: Biden up by 8 Post: Biden up by 16 (!) Early returns suggest that dismissing the pandemic fears as a hoax only to then be hospitalized for said hoax is not a winning strategy. It's understandable that Trump getting the virus would hurt him. What's surprising to me is the swings in poll results we've seen in the past couple months which means that even this late in the game, anything can still happen November 3rd. In political terms there is still a long way to go in these campaigns. Edited October 6, 2020 by keepthefaith 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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