Final Vote—All States, Progress in counting

[Tiberius]

With just over two months to go before the US presidential election, former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee, is polling ahead of incumbent Republican president Donald Trump in key battleground states, though he has seen his lead narrow in some states since the summer. In Wisconsin, where Mr Trump won by a razor thin margin in 2016, Mr Biden currently holds a 5 point lead. In Florida, where Covid cases remain high, Mr Biden leads Mr Trump by a 6 percentage points. Mr Biden has a narrow lead in Arizona, a state only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the past 70 years, and an even narrower one in North Carolina, which has voted Republican in nine out of the last 10 presidential elections. In Texas, the difference in poll numbers between the two men is less than 5 percentage points, also suggesting a close race in November in the quintessential red state.

https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/

Edited November 4, 2020 by Tiberius

[Tiberius]

Georgia...so close! 

 

https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/georgia/

[GETTOTHE50]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5zb9VxIrhV4

[Tiberius]

Biden breaks over 50% mark nationally and swing states look really good 

 

• Amid unrest in Kenosha, Wis., Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%.

• Nationally, President Trump trails Joe Biden by 8 points among likely voters — identical to a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention earlier this month.

• Biden saw his favorability improve to 51% after conventions concluded, while 55% continue to view Trump unfavorably.

Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona.

While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points. 

According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

[thenorthremembers]

You'd think after 2016 Dems would stop looking at polls.  On 9/1/2016 polls had Clinton at 302 electoral votes, she ended with 227.  She was also twice the candidate Biden is. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by thenorthremembers

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

You'd think after 2016 Dems would stop looking at polls.  On 9/1/2016 polls had Clinton at 302 electoral votes, she ended with 227.  She was also twice the candidate Biden is. 

Newsflash: it isn't 2016! 

 

You know how years are different? 

[SectionC3]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

Newsflash: it isn't 2016! 

 

You know how years are different? 

 

This is a really good point.  “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016.  I think they might have the opposite problem this time through.  I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. 

[Tiberius]

4 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

This is a really good point.  “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016.  I think they might have the opposite problem this time through.  I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. 

Blue Wave baby! 

[SectionC3]

4 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Blue Wave baby! 

 

I think it’s coming.  No post convention bounce for Trump.  Persuadable voters basically don’t exist.  Trump campaign knows this; hence the hard right break to the base, the attempt to stifle the (largely Democratic) absentee ballot through the USPS shenanigans, and the nosing around of other efforts to disrupt the election (e.g., stationing federal marshals at polling places). His path right now is to hope that Biden screws it up and loses it (a reasonable chance, given Biden’s history) or to steal it.  But even on September 1 I think we’re passing the point where he can win it. 

[Koko78]

20 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Newsflash: it isn't 2016! 

 

You know how years are different? 

 

You're right. It's not 2016. We've now had 4 highly entertaining years of liberal tears, with another 4 to go!

[Tiberius]

2 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

 

I think it’s coming.  No post convention bounce for Trump.  Persuadable voters basically don’t exist.  Trump campaign knows this; hence the hard right break to the base, the attempt to stifle the (largely Democratic) absentee ballot through the USPS shenanigans, and the nosing around of other efforts to disrupt the election (e.g., stationing federal marshals at polling places). His path right now is to hope that Biden screws it up and loses it (a reasonable chance, given Biden’s history) or to steal it.  But even on September 1 I think we’re passing the point where he can win it. 

The freak out is building to full snowflake meltdown! 

1 minute ago, Koko78 said:

 

You're right. It's not 2016. We've now had 4 highly entertaining years of liberal tears, with another 4 to go!

You've enjoyed defending this criminal regime? 

 

Wait until he goes on trial! 

[Koko78]

12 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

Wait until he goes on trial! 

 

My friend, I shall wait with bated breath.

[Big Blitz]

3 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Biden breaks over 50% mark nationally and swing states look really good 

 

• Amid unrest in Kenosha, Wis., Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%.

• Nationally, President Trump trails Joe Biden by 8 points among likely voters — identical to a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention earlier this month.

• Biden saw his favorability improve to 51% after conventions concluded, while 55% continue to view Trump unfavorably.

Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona.

While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points. 

According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state.

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/

 

 

Morning Consult is complete trash.  And since they don't release internals anymore without you paying, they should be ignored.  They tried to help Hillary after the first debates in 2016 when the two were essentially tied:

 

 

Hillary Clinton continues to widen her lead over Donald Trump after the presidential candidates shared the debate stage for the first time one week ago.

 

In a new Politico/Morning Consult survey of likely voters taken Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, the Democratic nominee leads her Republican rival by 6 points, 42 percent to 36 percent. 

 

https://morningconsult.com/2016/10/03/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-post-debate/

 

Trump at 36% in October 2016.  Yea.  I'm sure 538 probably loves these guys.  

 

[H2o]

The polls are bs. They always try to hype up whoever they want for the purpose of getting the undecided to "follow the crowd" through manipulation. Ever since I've been able to vote for the Presidency of the United States I have known who was gonna win before it happened. This is not claiming to be some kind of clairvoyant or anything, I just knew. In 1996 I knew Clinton would win a 2nd term. In 2000 and 2004 I knew Bush would win. In 2006, I was already telling people Barack Obama was on deck for the next 8 years following Bush(people laughed at me when I said that). In 2016, despite the supposed poll numbers and MSM saying otherwise, I knew Trump was gonna roll Hillary.

 

This year, unless they replace Biden with Michelle Obama, it will be Trump again. And even if they do pull the switch to Michelle Obama, Trump will still likely win again. Trump/Pence vs Biden/Harris is like Obama/Biden vs Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. They were making excuses for Romney/Ryan as to why they would lose even before the election. They're doing the same thing for Pedo Joe and Crooked Kamala right now. They're already telling Joe not to concede defeat. They're saying the military will have to remove Trump. They're trying to keep Joe hidden from the debate stage. They're trying to push mail in voting. They're already trying to organize riots for 11/4, the day after the election. Why do all of this if you truly believe that your candidate is going to win? The real question you need to ask yourself is why have they fought him tooth and nail, at every turn, since the day he was elected? 

 

They are trying everything they can within their power to get him, but every bit of it has failed or backfired to this point. They tried the Russian Hoax, but that has been found out to be one of the deepest corruption schemes of all time. People are going to be prosecuted all over for that one. The lawyer pleading guilty is just the tip of the iceberg. They tried the impeachment hoax. Sorry, that's a no go as well. They enacted Event 201 to shut down the country and the vast economic gains Trump had created while in office. Yep, that's falling by the wayside too. It's even working to his advantage because companies are committing to come back to America to have in house workers making their products again. They pulled the deck of race cards out, just like in 2012 and 2016. This time they went all in pushing unrest and rioting in cities for the purpose of trying to pin it on Trump. He's a racist, it's his fault, blah, blah, blah. Since the beginning though, he has told EVERYONE that all they had to do was ask for help and he would send the necessary means to shut the foolishness down. You have Dems like Waters, Pressley, AOC, Omar, the countless Mayors, and Governors encouraging or enabling the unrest. You have Kamala telling people to contribute to the bail fund of the criminals carrying out these acts of violence. You have Kamala saying the rioting is not going to stop, with a smile on her face, saying it's a movement. You have Nadler claiming the rioting was a myth. You have the Dems talking about defunding the police, which 95% of the American people are a against. You have CNN standing with towns ablaze in the background claiming, "These are mainly peaceful protests." They are trying to steal the election with mail-in voting, but being blocked at every turn. The fear mongering over Covid isn't working anymore. The American people seeing all of these 1,000's of jack*sses in the streets rioting, looting, beating people, killing, burning cities to the ground, and in some instances out protesting because they want mail in voting ( you can't make this ***t up), but all standing shoulder to shoulder. Now, after seeing the polls and hearing the rumblings of the American people, NOW the MSM and Biden want to condemn the violence and act like the violence is Trump's fault or that he hasn't condemned this lunacy already. Really? You dumb*sses and your policies have been on full display for 3 full months now, but you think that somehow the American public is going to buy the ole switcharoo at this point? Yeaaaaahhhhh, no. Then people seeing the BLM clowns out here claiming they deserve reparations. We want money for free, we want your homes for free, we're gonna burn this mutha f****r down if we don't get what we want.  and for what? For s**t that has absolutely nothing to do with anyone who is alive today? Then you have DEMOCRATIC leadership that is entertaining the idea. The Democrat party is an absolute clown show at this point from top to bottom. You honestly think that is what the silent majority is going to actually vote into office? If anything, all of the people with any sort of common sense are waking up to the idea that these people are complete ****ing r*tards. I know quite a few people who are professed liberals, but I have only heard a couple say they will vote for Biden. A handful have actually said they will vote for Trump though because, in their words, "The left has lost their minds." All of this, their plots and vain attempts to ensure they regain power, they are are all failing. If anything everything they have tried and are still trying has backfired. People are awake now with everything that has happened this year. People are pissed off at the Dems lack of leadership, their dictator type tactics over Covid that has cost not only livelihoods as well as lives in general, their corruption, their hypocrisy, their manipulation, letting their cities/states be overrun by criminal activity without any kind of care for the innocents caught in the middle, and their lies. When people are on the outside looking in at their actions and all they do is try to project their faults upon one man, it's fairly simple to see what they are doing. It's also fairly simple to see the outcome. Epic failure on their part. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by H2o

[Tiberius]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

Morning Consult is complete trash.  And since they don't release internals anymore without you paying, they should be ignored.  They tried to help Hillary after the first debates in 2016 when the two were essentially tied:

 

 

Hillary Clinton continues to widen her lead over Donald Trump after the presidential candidates shared the debate stage for the first time one week ago.

 

In a new Politico/Morning Consult survey of likely voters taken Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, the Democratic nominee leads her Republican rival by 6 points, 42 percent to 36 percent. 

 

https://morningconsult.com/2016/10/03/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-post-debate/

 

Trump at 36% in October 2016.  Yea.  I'm sure 538 probably loves these guys.  

 

It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. 

[Nanker]

Hoax!

[H2o]

9 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. 

You're right, this isn't 2016. It's 2020 and the case the Demac*nts are making that they should be in charge of America is even worse. 

[Tiberius]

?

President Trump's support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president's reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation's cities.

Trump's decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds.

The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest.

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-100048032.html

[RochesterRob]

  So much trash.  So few garbage bags.  Referring to Tiberius, C3, and the rest of the liberal brigade.  

[Tiberius]

12 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  So much trash.  So few garbage bags.  Referring to Tiberius, C3, and the rest of the liberal brigade.  

Frustrating to be losing! Don’t be a sore loser! Just keep being a loser! 

Edited September 1, 2020 by Tiberius

[snafu]

4 hours ago, Tiberius said:

It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. 

 

Sure, favorability measurement is a great poll.

I view Biden favorably -- like my old grampa.  Doesn't mean I want to vote for old gramps because I don't think old gramps is really cut out for the job.  

[Tiberius]

Just now, snafu said:

 

Sure, favorability measurement is a great poll.

I view Biden favorably -- like my old grampa.  Doesn't mean I want to vote for old gramps because I don't think old gramps is really cut out for the job.  

Voters think he is. 

 

And no Jill Stein this time, that helps even more

[The Frankish Reich]

8 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

 

This is a really good point.  “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016.  I think they might have the opposite problem this time through.  I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. 

There really wasn't an "undercurrent." For all the grief they've taken, Nate Silver's 538 blend of polls came awfully close to spot-on for the national popular vote: Clinton ahead by 3.6 percentage points.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/  The actual result: Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That's damn good forecasting. Obviously the state-by-state results were different, but you're dealing with smaller sample sizes and more variability there, so it's always a wild card.

So where we stand today is almost precisely where we were on election eve in 2016: Biden (as with Clinton) has about a 70% chance of winning, Trump 30%. That's not overwhelming odds in Biden's favor; 538 says he's "slightly favored." Could Trump pull off that inside straight again? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. Too many ways for it to go wrong.

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

There really wasn't an "undercurrent." For all the grief they've taken, Nate Silver's 538 blend of polls came awfully close to spot-on for the national popular vote: Clinton ahead by 3.6 percentage points.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/  The actual result: Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That's damn good forecasting. Obviously the state-by-state results were different, but you're dealing with smaller sample sizes and more variability there, so it's always a wild card.

So where we stand today is almost precisely where we were on election eve in 2016: Biden (as with Clinton) has about a 70% chance of winning, Trump 30%. That's not overwhelming odds in Biden's favor; 538 says he's "slightly favored." Could Trump pull off that inside straight again? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. Too many ways for it to go wrong.

I agree except for the undercurrent.  I worked the streets in 2016.  I had a bad vibe in September.  I sensed the persuadables were going to break for Trump.  Close the book on the Clintons, I thought, was a great line at the end. 
 

but otherwise, completely agree.  

Edited September 2, 2020 by SectionC3

[Unforgiven]

POLITICS

Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression”

 

 

From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th.

 

 

If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op.

[Tiberius]

27 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

POLITICS

Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression”

 

 

From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th.

 

 

If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op.

Oh, you think it’s a conspiracy to hurt Trump with ? fake polls? 

[B-Man]

34 minutes ago, Unforgiven said:

 

 

 

From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th.

 

 

 

If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op.

 

 

NO polls in the last SEVEN days ?

 

Yeah, thats not a giveaway.

 

 

 

 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Unforgiven said:

POLITICS

Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression”

 

 

From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th.

 

 

If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op.

 

Ummm, RCP is showing 4 GE polls on August 26 including Rasmussen w/ Biden +1.  It also shows a GE poll yesterday w/ the typical Biden lead & an Emerson GE poll w/ Biden +2.

 

Not sure why your info is showing nothing since 8/25.

[Brueggs]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

Oh, you think it’s a conspiracy to hurt Trump with ? fake polls? 

Do you know of a better way to make people think a certain candidate is going to lose, so that people decide not to bother voting because it won't make a difference?

[Tiberius]

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	USA Today/Suffolk	Biden 50, Trump 43	Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Grinnell/Selzer	Biden 49, Trump 41	Biden +8
President Trump Job Approval	Grinnell/Selzer	Approve 43, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +8
President Trump Job Approval	Politico/Morning Consult	Approve 42, Disapprove 57	Disapprove +15
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	Grinnell/Selzer	Democrats 48, Republicans 41	Democrats +7
Direction of Country	Politico/Morning Consult	Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72	Wrong Track +44

Tuesday, September 1

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden	WSB-TV/Landmark*	Trump 48, Biden 41	Trump +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	East Carolina U.	Trump 49, Biden 47	Trump +2
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	East Carolina U.	Cunningham 44, Tillis 44	Tie

9 hours ago, Brueggs said:

Do you know of a better way to make people think a certain candidate is going to lose, so that people decide not to bother voting because it won't make a difference?

Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? 

[Brueggs]

9 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

General Election: Trump vs. Biden	USA Today/Suffolk	Biden 50, Trump 43	Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Grinnell/Selzer	Biden 49, Trump 41	Biden +8
President Trump Job Approval	Grinnell/Selzer	Approve 43, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +8
President Trump Job Approval	Politico/Morning Consult	Approve 42, Disapprove 57	Disapprove +15
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	Grinnell/Selzer	Democrats 48, Republicans 41	Democrats +7
Direction of Country	Politico/Morning Consult	Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72	Wrong Track +44

Tuesday, September 1

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
Georgia: Trump vs. Biden	WSB-TV/Landmark*	Trump 48, Biden 41	Trump +7
North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden	East Carolina U.	Trump 49, Biden 47	Trump +2
North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham	East Carolina U.	Cunningham 44, Tillis 44	Tie

Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? 

Answering questions with questions.  Typical.

 

Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating.  I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to?  I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions?  Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before.  

[Tiberius]

Political conventions and violent protests have not done much to change the race between President Donald Trump and  Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 11 crucial battleground states, according to Morning Consult polls released Tuesday. 

The polls found the race little changed in Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while Biden gained ground in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump gained 2 percentage points on Biden in Pennsylvania and 3 points in Florida, though the president still trailed in both of those states. 

Nationally,Biden was found to be leading Trump by eight points, 51%-43%, exactly what Morning Consult found earlier this month. Biden's 8-point put him in a better than Hillary Clinton, who had a 3-point advantage in the poll after the 2016 conventions. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/

10 minutes ago, Brueggs said:

Answering questions with questions.  Typical.

 

Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating.  I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to?  I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions?  Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before.  

Maybe they are master bating while conducting the poll. I can’t believe people are not thinking that. 

[Koko78]

2 hours ago, Tiberius said:

Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? 

 

Yes, hire Democrats.

[The Frankish Reich]

3 hours ago, Brueggs said:

Answering questions with questions.  Typical.

 

Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating.  I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to?  I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions?  Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before.  

You need to read up on this. fivethirtyeight does a nice analysis of what they call the "house effect" of various pollsters. Some consistently trend in favor of Dems; some Repubs. Why don't they fix this since it is obviously a sampling issue? I don't know. I suppose there's an audience for their polls - call it confirmation bias.

At any rate, these house effects can be controlled for, and that's what the good aggregators (like fivethirtyeight) do. 

General comment: I'm actually amazed at how good national polls (not state wide -- those have a lot more variability, and of course that matters given the electoral college!) are when you control for these effects. I steadfastly refuse to answer calls from unknown people, and most people I know do the same. So you've got to be getting a biased sample from any poll, right? You'd think so, but then there's no way the RCP and 538 projections could be this good. I have to just say I don't understand it, but the proof is in the results. Every 4 years the side that's losing in the polls claims there's something wrong or even a conspiracy to push out faked numbers. McCain's supporters (I believe it was then) actually started a site they called "unskewed polls." They added a few points to McCain based on perceived oversampling of Dems vs. Reps.

It was trash, and turned out to be wrong, whereas the mainstream polls were right.

EDIT: it was Romney 2012, not McCain. And the unskewed guy fessed up that he got it all wrong:

https://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11

Edited September 2, 2020 by The Frankish Reich

[The Frankish Reich]

Oops. Another conspiracy theory shot to ... smithereens.

 

Added today

				DATES	POLLSTER	SAMPLE		RESULT				NET RESULT
President: general election				AUG 31-SEP 1, 2020	B- Ipsos	1,089	RV	Biden	47%	40%	Trump	Biden	+7
President: general election				AUG 30-SEP 1, 2020	B YouGov	1,207	RV	Biden	51%	40%	Trump	Biden	+11
President: general election				AUG 29-SEP 1, 2020	A/B IBD/TIPP	1,033	RV	Biden	49%	41%	Trump	Biden	+8
President: general election				AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020	B/C USC Dornsife	2,650	LV	Biden	51%	42%	Trump	Biden	+9
President: general election				AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020	B/C USC Dornsife	2,650	LV	Biden	52%	42%	Trump	Biden	+9
President: general election				AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020	C+ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research	2,500	LV	Biden	49%	45%	Trump	Biden	+4
President: general election				AUG 28-31, 2020	A Suffolk University	1,000	RV	Biden	47%	More		Biden	+5
President: general election				AUG 28-31, 2020	A Suffolk University	1,000	RV	Biden	50%	43%	Trump	Biden	+7
President: general election				AUG 26-30, 2020	A+ Selzer & Co.	827	LV	Biden	49%	41%	Trump	Biden	+8
President: general election				AUG 21-25, 2020	Opinium			Biden	56%	41%	Trump	Biden	+15

KEY

A = ADULTS

RV = REGISTERED VOTERS

V = VOTERS

LV = LIKELY VOTERS

Yesterday

President: general election

AUG 31-SEP 1, 2020

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

1,835

LV

Biden

49%

More

Biden

+8

President: general election

AUG 25-31, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,636

LV

Biden

52%

42%

Trump

Biden

+10

President: general election

AUG 25-31, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,636

LV

Biden

51%

42%

Trump

Biden

+10

President: general election

AUG 30, 2020

B/C Morning Consult

4,000

LV

Biden

52%

43%

Trump

Biden

+9

President: general election

AUG 28-30, 2020

B/C Morning Consult

12,966

LV

Biden

51%

43%

Trump

Biden

+8

President: general election

AUG 28-30, 2020

Léger

861

LV

Biden

49%

More

Biden

+7

President: general election

AUG 24-30, 2020

B/C AtlasIntel

4,210

LV

Biden

49%

46%

Trump

Biden

+3

President: general election

AUG 29, 2020

B/C Morning Consult

4,000

LV

Biden

51%

43%

Trump

Biden

+8

Aug. 31, 2020

President: general election

AUG 30-31, 2020

A- Emerson College

1,567

LV

Biden

51%

49%

Trump

Biden

+3

President: general election

AUG 24-30, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,574

LV

Biden

54%

40%

Trump

Biden

+13

President: general election

AUG 24-30, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,575

LV

Biden

53%

41%

Trump

Biden

+12

President: general election

AUG 27-29, 2020

B/C RMG Research

915

LV

Biden

48%

More

Biden

+4

President: general election

AUG 25-28, 2020

C HarrisX

2,862

RV

Biden

47%

38%

Trump

Biden

+9

Aug. 30, 2020

President: general election

AUG 29, 2020

John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions

1,007

LV

Biden

45%

More

Biden

+3

President: general election

AUG 29, 2020

John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions

1,007

LV

Biden

48%

42%

Trump

Biden

+6

President: general election

AUG 23-29, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,555

LV

Biden

54%

40%

Trump

Biden

+15

President: general election

AUG 23-29, 2020

B/C USC Dornsife

2,556

LV

Biden

54%

40%

Trump

Biden

+14

Aug. 29, 2020

[ziltoid]

Remember the Tulsa rally TicTok experiment?  Remember 2016?

[DQW87]

[Tiberius]

Slew of new polls! 

 

Wednesday, September 2

Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)	Poll	Results	Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	USA Today/Suffolk	Biden 50, Trump 43	Biden +7
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Grinnell/Selzer	Biden 49, Trump 41	Biden +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Rasmussen Reports	Biden 49, Trump 45	Biden +4
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Economist/YouGov	Biden 51, Trump 40	Biden +11
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	Quinnipiac	Biden 52, Trump 42	Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. Biden	IBD/TIPP	Biden 49, Trump 41	Biden +8
Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden	Monmouth*	Biden 49, Trump 46	Biden +3
President Trump Job Approval	Quinnipiac	Approve 43, Disapprove 54	Disapprove +11
President Trump Job Approval	IBD/TIPP	Approve 39, Disapprove 55	Disapprove +16
President Trump Job Approval	Grinnell/Selzer	Approve 43, Disapprove 51	Disapprove +8
President Trump Job Approval	USA Today/Suffolk	Approve 45, Disapprove 52	Disapprove +7
President Trump Job Approval	Politico/Morning Consult	Approve 42, Disapprove 57	Disapprove +15
President Trump Job Approval	Rasmussen Reports	Approve 49, Disapprove 50	Disapprove +1
President Trump Job Approval	Economist/YouGov	Approve 43, Disapprove 55	Disapprove +12
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	Economist/YouGov	Democrats 51, Republicans 38	Democrats +13
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	Grinnell/Selzer	Democrats 48, Republicans 41	Democrats +7
2020 Generic Congressional Vote	USA Today/Suffolk	Democrats 48, Republicans 42	Democrats +6
Direction of Country	USA Today/Suffolk	Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 62	Wrong Track +32
Direction of Country	Politico/Morning Consult	Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72	Wrong Track +44
Direction of Country	Economist/YouGov	Right Direction 25, Wrong Track 67	Wrong Track +42
Congressional Job Approval	Economist/YouGov	Approve 15, Disapprove 59	Disapprove +44

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[The Frankish Reich]

16 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

In what way is it harder to push out fake numbers than real numbers? 

I feel like I could manufacture a fake poll of, say, 1,000 individuals in literally one day. I'd just take the data from an old poll and tweak it a little bit to fit my "narrative" if I wanted to show, say, Biden leading by 11 points. Or 15. It's nothing. Doing real polling takes time. 

In other words, this is an utterly asinine comment by someone calling him/herself "The Last Refuge."