Tiberius Posted August 31, 2020 Share Posted August 31, 2020 (edited) With just over two months to go before the US presidential election, former vice-president Joe Biden, the Democratic party’s nominee, is polling ahead of incumbent Republican president Donald Trump in key battleground states, though he has seen his lead narrow in some states since the summer. In Wisconsin, where Mr Trump won by a razor thin margin in 2016, Mr Biden currently holds a 5 point lead. In Florida, where Covid cases remain high, Mr Biden leads Mr Trump by a 6 percentage points. Mr Biden has a narrow lead in Arizona, a state only one Democratic presidential candidate has won in the past 70 years, and an even narrower one in North Carolina, which has voted Republican in nine out of the last 10 presidential elections. In Texas, the difference in poll numbers between the two men is less than 5 percentage points, also suggesting a close race in November in the quintessential red state. https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/ Edited November 4, 2020 by Tiberius 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted August 31, 2020 Author Share Posted August 31, 2020 Georgia...so close! https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/georgia/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETTOTHE50 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5zb9VxIrhV4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Biden breaks over 50% mark nationally and swing states look really good Amid unrest in Kenosha, Wis., Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%. Nationally, President Trump trails Joe Biden by 8 points among likely voters — identical to a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention earlier this month. Biden saw his favorability improve to 51% after conventions concluded, while 55% continue to view Trump unfavorably. Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona. While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points. According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state. https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenorthremembers Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 (edited) You'd think after 2016 Dems would stop looking at polls. On 9/1/2016 polls had Clinton at 302 electoral votes, she ended with 227. She was also twice the candidate Biden is. Edited September 1, 2020 by thenorthremembers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said: You'd think after 2016 Dems would stop looking at polls. On 9/1/2016 polls had Clinton at 302 electoral votes, she ended with 227. She was also twice the candidate Biden is. Newsflash: it isn't 2016! You know how years are different? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Tiberius said: Newsflash: it isn't 2016! You know how years are different? This is a really good point. “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016. I think they might have the opposite problem this time through. I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, SectionC3 said: This is a really good point. “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016. I think they might have the opposite problem this time through. I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. Blue Wave baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Blue Wave baby! I think it’s coming. No post convention bounce for Trump. Persuadable voters basically don’t exist. Trump campaign knows this; hence the hard right break to the base, the attempt to stifle the (largely Democratic) absentee ballot through the USPS shenanigans, and the nosing around of other efforts to disrupt the election (e.g., stationing federal marshals at polling places). His path right now is to hope that Biden screws it up and loses it (a reasonable chance, given Biden’s history) or to steal it. But even on September 1 I think we’re passing the point where he can win it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Newsflash: it isn't 2016! You know how years are different? You're right. It's not 2016. We've now had 4 highly entertaining years of liberal tears, with another 4 to go! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, SectionC3 said: I think it’s coming. No post convention bounce for Trump. Persuadable voters basically don’t exist. Trump campaign knows this; hence the hard right break to the base, the attempt to stifle the (largely Democratic) absentee ballot through the USPS shenanigans, and the nosing around of other efforts to disrupt the election (e.g., stationing federal marshals at polling places). His path right now is to hope that Biden screws it up and loses it (a reasonable chance, given Biden’s history) or to steal it. But even on September 1 I think we’re passing the point where he can win it. The freak out is building to full snowflake meltdown! 1 minute ago, Koko78 said: You're right. It's not 2016. We've now had 4 highly entertaining years of liberal tears, with another 4 to go! You've enjoyed defending this criminal regime? Wait until he goes on trial! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Wait until he goes on trial! My friend, I shall wait with bated breath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 3 hours ago, Tiberius said: Biden breaks over 50% mark nationally and swing states look really good Amid unrest in Kenosha, Wis., Biden leads Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%. Nationally, President Trump trails Joe Biden by 8 points among likely voters — identical to a poll conducted before the Democratic National Convention earlier this month. Biden saw his favorability improve to 51% after conventions concluded, while 55% continue to view Trump unfavorably. Despite two weeks of party conventions and amid civil unrest prompted by the police shooting of Jacob Blake in Kenosha, Wis., the state of the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden stands largely unchanged from its pre-convention numbers in some of the country’s most-contested states — with the notable exception of Arizona. While Biden was trailing the president in the Southwestern battleground by 2 percentage points in an Aug. 7-16 Morning Consult poll conducted before the Aug. 17 start of the Democratic National Convention, the former vice president has improved his margin over Trump by 12 points. According to the Aug. 21-30 survey of 943 likely Arizona voters, which has a 3-point margin of error, Biden leads Trump, 52 percent to 42 percent, driven by a 10-point increase in support among Arizona men, statistically tying him with Trump (49 percent to 45 percent), and a 7-point increase in support with suburban Arizonans, who now favor Biden by 9 points, 51 percent to 42 percent. He also leads among women (55 percent to 40 percent) and independents (51 percent to 37 percent) in the state. https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/01/battleground-presidential-polling-post-conventions/ Morning Consult is complete trash. And since they don't release internals anymore without you paying, they should be ignored. They tried to help Hillary after the first debates in 2016 when the two were essentially tied: Hillary Clinton continues to widen her lead over Donald Trump after the presidential candidates shared the debate stage for the first time one week ago. In a new Politico/Morning Consult survey of likely voters taken Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, the Democratic nominee leads her Republican rival by 6 points, 42 percent to 36 percent. https://morningconsult.com/2016/10/03/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-post-debate/ Trump at 36% in October 2016. Yea. I'm sure 538 probably loves these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 (edited) The polls are bs. They always try to hype up whoever they want for the purpose of getting the undecided to "follow the crowd" through manipulation. Ever since I've been able to vote for the Presidency of the United States I have known who was gonna win before it happened. This is not claiming to be some kind of clairvoyant or anything, I just knew. In 1996 I knew Clinton would win a 2nd term. In 2000 and 2004 I knew Bush would win. In 2006, I was already telling people Barack Obama was on deck for the next 8 years following Bush(people laughed at me when I said that). In 2016, despite the supposed poll numbers and MSM saying otherwise, I knew Trump was gonna roll Hillary. This year, unless they replace Biden with Michelle Obama, it will be Trump again. And even if they do pull the switch to Michelle Obama, Trump will still likely win again. Trump/Pence vs Biden/Harris is like Obama/Biden vs Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. They were making excuses for Romney/Ryan as to why they would lose even before the election. They're doing the same thing for Pedo Joe and Crooked Kamala right now. They're already telling Joe not to concede defeat. They're saying the military will have to remove Trump. They're trying to keep Joe hidden from the debate stage. They're trying to push mail in voting. They're already trying to organize riots for 11/4, the day after the election. Why do all of this if you truly believe that your candidate is going to win? The real question you need to ask yourself is why have they fought him tooth and nail, at every turn, since the day he was elected? They are trying everything they can within their power to get him, but every bit of it has failed or backfired to this point. They tried the Russian Hoax, but that has been found out to be one of the deepest corruption schemes of all time. People are going to be prosecuted all over for that one. The lawyer pleading guilty is just the tip of the iceberg. They tried the impeachment hoax. Sorry, that's a no go as well. They enacted Event 201 to shut down the country and the vast economic gains Trump had created while in office. Yep, that's falling by the wayside too. It's even working to his advantage because companies are committing to come back to America to have in house workers making their products again. They pulled the deck of race cards out, just like in 2012 and 2016. This time they went all in pushing unrest and rioting in cities for the purpose of trying to pin it on Trump. He's a racist, it's his fault, blah, blah, blah. Since the beginning though, he has told EVERYONE that all they had to do was ask for help and he would send the necessary means to shut the foolishness down. You have Dems like Waters, Pressley, AOC, Omar, the countless Mayors, and Governors encouraging or enabling the unrest. You have Kamala telling people to contribute to the bail fund of the criminals carrying out these acts of violence. You have Kamala saying the rioting is not going to stop, with a smile on her face, saying it's a movement. You have Nadler claiming the rioting was a myth. You have the Dems talking about defunding the police, which 95% of the American people are a against. You have CNN standing with towns ablaze in the background claiming, "These are mainly peaceful protests." They are trying to steal the election with mail-in voting, but being blocked at every turn. The fear mongering over Covid isn't working anymore. The American people seeing all of these 1,000's of jack*sses in the streets rioting, looting, beating people, killing, burning cities to the ground, and in some instances out protesting because they want mail in voting ( you can't make this ***t up), but all standing shoulder to shoulder. Now, after seeing the polls and hearing the rumblings of the American people, NOW the MSM and Biden want to condemn the violence and act like the violence is Trump's fault or that he hasn't condemned this lunacy already. Really? You dumb*sses and your policies have been on full display for 3 full months now, but you think that somehow the American public is going to buy the ole switcharoo at this point? Yeaaaaahhhhh, no. Then people seeing the BLM clowns out here claiming they deserve reparations. We want money for free, we want your homes for free, we're gonna burn this mutha f****r down if we don't get what we want. and for what? For s**t that has absolutely nothing to do with anyone who is alive today? Then you have DEMOCRATIC leadership that is entertaining the idea. The Democrat party is an absolute clown show at this point from top to bottom. You honestly think that is what the silent majority is going to actually vote into office? If anything, all of the people with any sort of common sense are waking up to the idea that these people are complete ****ing r*tards. I know quite a few people who are professed liberals, but I have only heard a couple say they will vote for Biden. A handful have actually said they will vote for Trump though because, in their words, "The left has lost their minds." All of this, their plots and vain attempts to ensure they regain power, they are are all failing. If anything everything they have tried and are still trying has backfired. People are awake now with everything that has happened this year. People are pissed off at the Dems lack of leadership, their dictator type tactics over Covid that has cost not only livelihoods as well as lives in general, their corruption, their hypocrisy, their manipulation, letting their cities/states be overrun by criminal activity without any kind of care for the innocents caught in the middle, and their lies. When people are on the outside looking in at their actions and all they do is try to project their faults upon one man, it's fairly simple to see what they are doing. It's also fairly simple to see the outcome. Epic failure on their part. Edited September 1, 2020 by H2o 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Big Blitz said: Morning Consult is complete trash. And since they don't release internals anymore without you paying, they should be ignored. They tried to help Hillary after the first debates in 2016 when the two were essentially tied: Hillary Clinton continues to widen her lead over Donald Trump after the presidential candidates shared the debate stage for the first time one week ago. In a new Politico/Morning Consult survey of likely voters taken Sept. 30 through Oct. 2, the Democratic nominee leads her Republican rival by 6 points, 42 percent to 36 percent. https://morningconsult.com/2016/10/03/presidential-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-post-debate/ Trump at 36% in October 2016. Yea. I'm sure 538 probably loves these guys. It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 Hoax! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tiberius said: It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. You're right, this isn't 2016. It's 2020 and the case the Demac*nts are making that they should be in charge of America is even worse. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 ? President Trump's support has eroded among key groups of voters who backed him in 2016 — a major reason why he continues to trail former Vice President Joe Biden and a prime motivator for the president's reelection strategy of emphasizing violent disorder in the nation's cities. Trump's decline among parts of his 2016 base is a chief finding so far from the USC Dornsife Daybreak Poll, which tracked voter preferences daily four years ago and is doing so again this year. Overall, Trump has lost support from about 9% of voters who backed him in 2016, the poll finds. The poll shows no major shift in the race during the last two weeks, belying much speculation that the back-to-back national political conventions and violence in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., might have changed what has been an unusually stable contest. https://news.yahoo.com/trump-slipped-among-key-groups-100048032.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RochesterRob Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 So much trash. So few garbage bags. Referring to Tiberius, C3, and the rest of the liberal brigade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 (edited) 12 minutes ago, RochesterRob said: So much trash. So few garbage bags. Referring to Tiberius, C3, and the rest of the liberal brigade. Frustrating to be losing! Don’t be a sore loser! Just keep being a loser! Edited September 1, 2020 by Tiberius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snafu Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 4 hours ago, Tiberius said: It's a good poll. This isn't 2016. Sure, favorability measurement is a great poll. I view Biden favorably -- like my old grampa. Doesn't mean I want to vote for old gramps because I don't think old gramps is really cut out for the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 1, 2020 Author Share Posted September 1, 2020 Just now, snafu said: Sure, favorability measurement is a great poll. I view Biden favorably -- like my old grampa. Doesn't mean I want to vote for old gramps because I don't think old gramps is really cut out for the job. Voters think he is. And no Jill Stein this time, that helps even more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 8 hours ago, SectionC3 said: This is a really good point. “The polls” were late to the Trump undercurrent in 2016. I think they might have the opposite problem this time through. I suspect that the universe of likely voters is too small in a lot of these polls (because we’re going to have heretofore unseen turnout), and the “unexpected voters” will break heavily for Biden. There really wasn't an "undercurrent." For all the grief they've taken, Nate Silver's 538 blend of polls came awfully close to spot-on for the national popular vote: Clinton ahead by 3.6 percentage points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ The actual result: Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That's damn good forecasting. Obviously the state-by-state results were different, but you're dealing with smaller sample sizes and more variability there, so it's always a wild card. So where we stand today is almost precisely where we were on election eve in 2016: Biden (as with Clinton) has about a 70% chance of winning, Trump 30%. That's not overwhelming odds in Biden's favor; 538 says he's "slightly favored." Could Trump pull off that inside straight again? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. Too many ways for it to go wrong. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SectionC3 Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: There really wasn't an "undercurrent." For all the grief they've taken, Nate Silver's 538 blend of polls came awfully close to spot-on for the national popular vote: Clinton ahead by 3.6 percentage points. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ The actual result: Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points. That's damn good forecasting. Obviously the state-by-state results were different, but you're dealing with smaller sample sizes and more variability there, so it's always a wild card. So where we stand today is almost precisely where we were on election eve in 2016: Biden (as with Clinton) has about a 70% chance of winning, Trump 30%. That's not overwhelming odds in Biden's favor; 538 says he's "slightly favored." Could Trump pull off that inside straight again? Absolutely. Is it likely? No. Too many ways for it to go wrong. I agree except for the undercurrent. I worked the streets in 2016. I had a bad vibe in September. I sensed the persuadables were going to break for Trump. Close the book on the Clintons, I thought, was a great line at the end. but otherwise, completely agree. Edited September 2, 2020 by SectionC3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unforgiven Posted September 1, 2020 Share Posted September 1, 2020 POLITICS Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression” From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th. If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 27 minutes ago, Unforgiven said: POLITICS Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression” From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th. If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op. Oh, you think it’s a conspiracy to hurt Trump with ? fake polls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, Unforgiven said: From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th. If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op. NO polls in the last SEVEN days ? Yeah, thats not a giveaway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Unforgiven said: POLITICS Polling Firm Rasmussen Warns About “National Poll Suppression” From August 1-15 there were 16 polls that came out. From August 16-31 there have been only 8 and none covering a later date than the 25th. If you fully believe in polls like the dimwitted op. Ummm, RCP is showing 4 GE polls on August 26 including Rasmussen w/ Biden +1. It also shows a GE poll yesterday w/ the typical Biden lead & an Emerson GE poll w/ Biden +2. Not sure why your info is showing nothing since 8/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brueggs Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Tiberius said: Oh, you think it’s a conspiracy to hurt Trump with ? fake polls? Do you know of a better way to make people think a certain candidate is going to lose, so that people decide not to bother voting because it won't make a difference? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Grinnell/Selzer Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 President Trump Job Approval Grinnell/Selzer Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Grinnell/Selzer Democrats 48, Republicans 41 Democrats +7 Direction of Country Politico/Morning Consult Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72 Wrong Track +44 Tuesday, September 1 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Georgia: Trump vs. Biden WSB-TV/Landmark* Trump 48, Biden 41 Trump +7 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Trump 49, Biden 47 Trump +2 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham East Carolina U. Cunningham 44, Tillis 44 Tie 9 hours ago, Brueggs said: Do you know of a better way to make people think a certain candidate is going to lose, so that people decide not to bother voting because it won't make a difference? Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brueggs Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Tiberius said: General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Grinnell/Selzer Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 President Trump Job Approval Grinnell/Selzer Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Grinnell/Selzer Democrats 48, Republicans 41 Democrats +7 Direction of Country Politico/Morning Consult Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72 Wrong Track +44 Tuesday, September 1 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread Georgia: Trump vs. Biden WSB-TV/Landmark* Trump 48, Biden 41 Trump +7 North Carolina: Trump vs. Biden East Carolina U. Trump 49, Biden 47 Trump +2 North Carolina Senate - Tillis vs. Cunningham East Carolina U. Cunningham 44, Tillis 44 Tie Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? Answering questions with questions. Typical. Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating. I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to? I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions? Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Political conventions and violent protests have not done much to change the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 11 crucial battleground states, according to Morning Consult polls released Tuesday. The polls found the race little changed in Colorado, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, while Biden gained ground in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump gained 2 percentage points on Biden in Pennsylvania and 3 points in Florida, though the president still trailed in both of those states. Nationally,Biden was found to be leading Trump by eight points, 51%-43%, exactly what Morning Consult found earlier this month. Biden's 8-point put him in a better than Hillary Clinton, who had a 3-point advantage in the poll after the 2016 conventions. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/01/biden-gains-trump-wisconsin-leads-other-key-states-poll/3455027001/ 10 minutes ago, Brueggs said: Answering questions with questions. Typical. Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating. I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to? I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions? Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before. Maybe they are master bating while conducting the poll. I can’t believe people are not thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Tiberius said: Do you know a way to get all the pollsters to cheat like that? Yes, hire Democrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, Brueggs said: Answering questions with questions. Typical. Its not necessarily the pollsters cheating. I wonder what would happen if those conducting the polls chose a certain demographic to administer their questions to? I wonder if they could target specific groups that would be more likely to have similar opinions? Wow, I can't believe no one ever thought of that before. You need to read up on this. fivethirtyeight does a nice analysis of what they call the "house effect" of various pollsters. Some consistently trend in favor of Dems; some Repubs. Why don't they fix this since it is obviously a sampling issue? I don't know. I suppose there's an audience for their polls - call it confirmation bias. At any rate, these house effects can be controlled for, and that's what the good aggregators (like fivethirtyeight) do. General comment: I'm actually amazed at how good national polls (not state wide -- those have a lot more variability, and of course that matters given the electoral college!) are when you control for these effects. I steadfastly refuse to answer calls from unknown people, and most people I know do the same. So you've got to be getting a biased sample from any poll, right? You'd think so, but then there's no way the RCP and 538 projections could be this good. I have to just say I don't understand it, but the proof is in the results. Every 4 years the side that's losing in the polls claims there's something wrong or even a conspiracy to push out faked numbers. McCain's supporters (I believe it was then) actually started a site they called "unskewed polls." They added a few points to McCain based on perceived oversampling of Dems vs. Reps. It was trash, and turned out to be wrong, whereas the mainstream polls were right. EDIT: it was Romney 2012, not McCain. And the unskewed guy fessed up that he got it all wrong: https://www.businessinsider.com/unskewed-pollster-dean-chambers-nate-silver-election-dick-morris-michael-barone-2012-11 Edited September 2, 2020 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Oops. Another conspiracy theory shot to ... smithereens. Added today DATES POLLSTER SAMPLE RESULT NET RESULT President: general election AUG 31-SEP 1, 2020 B- Ipsos 1,089 RV Biden 47% 40% Trump Biden +7 President: general election AUG 30-SEP 1, 2020 B YouGov 1,207 RV Biden 51% 40% Trump Biden +11 President: general election AUG 29-SEP 1, 2020 A/B IBD/TIPP 1,033 RV Biden 49% 41% Trump Biden +8 President: general election AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,650 LV Biden 51% 42% Trump Biden +9 President: general election AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,650 LV Biden 52% 42% Trump Biden +9 President: general election AUG 26-SEP 1, 2020 C+ Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research 2,500 LV Biden 49% 45% Trump Biden +4 President: general election AUG 28-31, 2020 A Suffolk University 1,000 RV Biden 47% More Biden +5 President: general election AUG 28-31, 2020 A Suffolk University 1,000 RV Biden 50% 43% Trump Biden +7 President: general election AUG 26-30, 2020 A+ Selzer & Co. 827 LV Biden 49% 41% Trump Biden +8 President: general election AUG 21-25, 2020 Opinium Biden 56% 41% Trump Biden +15 KEY A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Yesterday President: general election AUG 31-SEP 1, 2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 1,835 LV Biden 49% More Biden +8 President: general election AUG 25-31, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,636 LV Biden 52% 42% Trump Biden +10 President: general election AUG 25-31, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,636 LV Biden 51% 42% Trump Biden +10 President: general election AUG 30, 2020 B/C Morning Consult 4,000 LV Biden 52% 43% Trump Biden +9 President: general election AUG 28-30, 2020 B/C Morning Consult 12,966 LV Biden 51% 43% Trump Biden +8 President: general election AUG 28-30, 2020 Léger 861 LV Biden 49% More Biden +7 President: general election AUG 24-30, 2020 B/C AtlasIntel 4,210 LV Biden 49% 46% Trump Biden +3 President: general election AUG 29, 2020 B/C Morning Consult 4,000 LV Biden 51% 43% Trump Biden +8 Aug. 31, 2020 President: general election AUG 30-31, 2020 A- Emerson College 1,567 LV Biden 51% 49% Trump Biden +3 President: general election AUG 24-30, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,574 LV Biden 54% 40% Trump Biden +13 President: general election AUG 24-30, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,575 LV Biden 53% 41% Trump Biden +12 President: general election AUG 27-29, 2020 B/C RMG Research 915 LV Biden 48% More Biden +4 President: general election AUG 25-28, 2020 C HarrisX 2,862 RV Biden 47% 38% Trump Biden +9 Aug. 30, 2020 President: general election AUG 29, 2020 John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions 1,007 LV Biden 45% More Biden +3 President: general election AUG 29, 2020 John Zogby Strategies/EMI Research Solutions 1,007 LV Biden 48% 42% Trump Biden +6 President: general election AUG 23-29, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,555 LV Biden 54% 40% Trump Biden +15 President: general election AUG 23-29, 2020 B/C USC Dornsife 2,556 LV Biden 54% 40% Trump Biden +14 Aug. 29, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ziltoid Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Remember the Tulsa rally TicTok experiment? Remember 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DQW87 Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted September 2, 2020 Author Share Posted September 2, 2020 Slew of new polls! Wednesday, September 2 Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread General Election: Trump vs. Biden USA Today/Suffolk Biden 50, Trump 43 Biden +7 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Grinnell/Selzer Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Rasmussen Reports Biden 49, Trump 45 Biden +4 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Economist/YouGov Biden 51, Trump 40 Biden +11 General Election: Trump vs. Biden Quinnipiac Biden 52, Trump 42 Biden +10 General Election: Trump vs. Biden IBD/TIPP Biden 49, Trump 41 Biden +8 Pennsylvania: Trump vs. Biden Monmouth* Biden 49, Trump 46 Biden +3 President Trump Job Approval Quinnipiac Approve 43, Disapprove 54 Disapprove +11 President Trump Job Approval IBD/TIPP Approve 39, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +16 President Trump Job Approval Grinnell/Selzer Approve 43, Disapprove 51 Disapprove +8 President Trump Job Approval USA Today/Suffolk Approve 45, Disapprove 52 Disapprove +7 President Trump Job Approval Politico/Morning Consult Approve 42, Disapprove 57 Disapprove +15 President Trump Job Approval Rasmussen Reports Approve 49, Disapprove 50 Disapprove +1 President Trump Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 43, Disapprove 55 Disapprove +12 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Economist/YouGov Democrats 51, Republicans 38 Democrats +13 2020 Generic Congressional Vote Grinnell/Selzer Democrats 48, Republicans 41 Democrats +7 2020 Generic Congressional Vote USA Today/Suffolk Democrats 48, Republicans 42 Democrats +6 Direction of Country USA Today/Suffolk Right Direction 30, Wrong Track 62 Wrong Track +32 Direction of Country Politico/Morning Consult Right Direction 28, Wrong Track 72 Wrong Track +44 Direction of Country Economist/YouGov Right Direction 25, Wrong Track 67 Wrong Track +42 Congressional Job Approval Economist/YouGov Approve 15, Disapprove 59 Disapprove +44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deranged Rhino Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 2, 2020 Share Posted September 2, 2020 16 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: In what way is it harder to push out fake numbers than real numbers? I feel like I could manufacture a fake poll of, say, 1,000 individuals in literally one day. I'd just take the data from an old poll and tweak it a little bit to fit my "narrative" if I wanted to show, say, Biden leading by 11 points. Or 15. It's nothing. Doing real polling takes time. In other words, this is an utterly asinine comment by someone calling him/herself "The Last Refuge." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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