Josh Allen "Prove it" Season In Year 3

[Dr. Who]

9 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

There appears to be a few my friend. If it weren't for drops, he'd have been Marino, etc. 

 

What's interesting here is that the OP is one of the optimistic, reasonable posters on the board. He's getting ripped for asking a legit questions.

 

Josh was basically built in a lab to play the position, but he's got to get better at the read/recognize/RELEASE aspect of his game. Improved a good deal in short accuracy. Now he's gotta continue to improve on the aforementioned as well as deep ball accuracy.

 

The offense looks pretty solid. We saw stark improvement from year one to year two. The OP appears to want to see the same level of improvement in year 3. I suppose that's too much to ask for some.

Well, if so, they are just as dogmatic and unrealistic as the folks who already know Josh is a bad qb. I agree that one hopes for another leap in year 3. I am operating under the surmise that is likely. Assuming we get past the current health isolation, we'll see soon enough.

[thebandit27]

12 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

 

That is the entire point of this thread.

No ? man ?

 

I never said otherwise.

[Cripple Creek]

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

No ? man ?

 

I never said otherwise.

Nice to see your kids got their hands on your phone.

[thebandit27]

37 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

Nice to see your kids got their hands on your phone.

Perhaps I should’ve gone with your old standby “FOH bro” instead?

 

Stay healthy and safe man.

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, whorlnut said:

If you are indeed a fan of the Bills, then why are you arguing so hard against Allen?  Is it because you have a burning desire to be right that you can’t let it go?  We should all want him to succeed, but you are seeming to make it your mission to trash him and tell us all why he won’t. It’s pretty sad. 

 

It was a question that I answered. I wasn't arguing against him. Pointing out facts is not against a person to succeed. I want him to succeed. The truth is I've never said otherwise. Your bias won't allow you to see I have no animus against the guy. I just don't think he's a good QB as of right now. I hope he is, I've always said so. I'm happy about the Diggs trade and I hope he had Hooper to bail him out if he's getting flushed out of the pocket as a big target.

 

Let's pretend he succeeds incredibly and is our QB for 15 years and his decline is evident. Will pointing that out reduce my fandom as well or only when he's young?

[Billl]

20 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Bottom 5 in most passing categories?

 

I’m curious if you ever say anything about Allen that’s true?

 

He was 23rd in yards, 23rd in TDs, 18th in TD %age, 16th in INT %age, 23rd in ANY/A, 24th in passer rating...at what point do you just stop making things up?

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing.htm

 

Or is the stat guy drunk about the above too?

There’s not a single QB on that list below Allen in yards who played 16 games.  Only 1 played more than 13 games (Jacoby Brissett).  For TD passes, only 2 Brissett and Trubisky played more than 13 games and threw fewer than Allen.  Only 3 with lower passer ratings played more than 13 games.  jrober is right.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

There’s not a single QB on that list below Allen in yards who played 16 games.  Only 1 played more than 13 games (Jacoby Brissett).  For TD passes, only 2 Brissett and Trubisky played more than 13 games and threw fewer than Allen.  Only 3 with lower passer ratings played more than 13 games.  jrober is right.

Nope. He’s wrong, and you’re a ways late to the discussion. Just look at TD%, since it is as apples-to-apples as it gets.

[LABILLBACKER]

22 hours ago, Troll Toll said:

250ypg passing

QB Rating >= 90

CMP% >= 60%

If he hits these benchmarks then he's officially arrived.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

If you are indeed a fan of the Bills, then why are you arguing so hard against Allen?  Is it because you have a burning desire to be right that you can’t let it go?  We should all want him to succeed, but you are seeming to make it your mission to trash him and tell us all why he won’t. It’s pretty sad. 

 

I am sorry I hate this argument. I really hate it. Being a fan of the Bills or of any other pro sports team does not require blind loyalty towards every guy who puts on the jersey. That might be your style of fandom but it sure as hell isn't mine. I am not wired that way. If someone feels strongly in a negative way about a player, any player, it does not make them sad, or desperate to be right, or any less of a fan.

 

I remain on the fence on Allen but sit on the optimistic side of that fence and think, as the OP says, we will know a lot more after this season. But I have been critical of him at times and he has given us things to be legitimately critical of. I am critical of other players on the roster at times too. Doesn't stop me rooting for them when they take the field on a Sunday. It just means that from Monday to Saturday when I sit and go back through the games I try my damndest to watch Bills games back in the same dispassionate way I watch the other 31 teams. 

[GoBills808]

37 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Nope. He’s wrong, and you’re a ways late to the discussion. Just look at TD%, since it is as apples-to-apples as it gets.

These guys think efficiency metrics relate to number of games played.

 

i wouldn’t bother.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, pop gun said:

If that is you argument, strictly TD passes thrown, Allen is tied for 21st, not bottom 5, IDK what to tell you as stats don't lie!

 

Rk	Player	Tm	Age	Pos	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD ▼	TD%	Int	Int%	1D	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
1	Lamar Jackson*+	BAL	22	QB	15	15	13-2-0	265	401	66.1	3127	36	9.0	6	1.5	161	83	7.8	8.9	11.8	208.5	113.3		23	106	7.13	8.19	5.4	1	2
2	Jameis Winston	TAM	25	QB	16	16	7-9-0	380	626	60.7	5109	33	5.3	30	4.8	243	71	8.2	7.1	13.4	319.3	84.3		47	282	7.17	6.15	7.0	2	2
3	Russell Wilson*	SEA	31	QB	16	16	11-5-0	341	516	66.1	4110	31	6.0	5	1.0	190	60	8.0	8.7	12.1	256.9	106.3		48	319	6.72	7.42	8.5	4	5
4	Dak Prescott	DAL	26	QB	16	16	8-8-0	388	596	65.1	4902	30	5.0	11	1.8	229	62	8.2	8.4	12.6	306.4	99.7		23	151	7.68	7.84	3.7
5	Carson Wentz	PHI	27	QB	16	16	9-7-0	388	607	63.9	4039	27	4.4	7	1.2	213	53	6.7	7.0	10.4	252.4	93.1		37	230	5.91	6.26	5.7	2	4
6	Jimmy Garoppolo	SFO	28	QB	16	16	13-3-0	329	476	69.1	3978	27	5.7	13	2.7	193	75	8.4	8.3	12.1	248.6	102.0		36	237	7.31	7.22	7.0	4	4
7	Drew Brees*	NOR	40	QB	11	11	8-3-0	281	378	74.3	2979	27	7.1	4	1.1	159	61	7.9	8.8	10.6	270.8	116.3		12	89	7.41	8.33	3.1	1	2
8	Matt Ryan	ATL	34	QB	15	15	7-8-0	408	616	66.2	4466	26	4.2	14	2.3	228	93	7.3	7.1	10.9	297.7	92.1		48	316	6.25	6.08	7.2	3	2
9	Aaron Rodgers*	GNB	36	QB	16	16	13-3-0	353	569	62.0	4002	26	4.6	4	0.7	189	74	7.0	7.6	11.3	250.1	95.4		36	284	6.15	6.71	6.0	2	3
10	Deshaun Watson*	HOU	24	QB	15	15	10-5-0	333	495	67.3	3852	26	5.3	12	2.4	191	54	7.8	7.7	11.6	256.8	98.0		44	257	6.67	6.63	8.2	3	5
11	Patrick Mahomes*	KAN	24	QB	14	14	11-3-0	319	484	65.9	4031	26	5.4	5	1.0	176	83	8.3	8.9	12.6	287.9	105.3		17	127	7.79	8.38	3.4	1	1
12	Kirk Cousins*	MIN	31	QB	15	15	10-5-0	307	444	69.1	3603	26	5.9	6	1.4	165	66	8.1	8.7	11.7	240.2	107.4		28	206	7.20	7.73	5.9	1	1
13	Tom Brady	NWE	42	QB	16	16	12-4-0	373	613	60.8	4057	24	3.9	8	1.3	193	59	6.6	6.8	10.9	253.6	88.0		27	185	6.05	6.24	4.2	1	1
14	Daniel Jones	NYG	22	QB	13	12	3-9-0	284	459	61.9	3027	24	5.2	12	2.6	140	75	6.6	6.5	10.7	232.8	87.7		38	295	5.50	5.38	7.6	1	2
15	Philip Rivers	LAC	38	QB	16	16	5-11-0	390	591	66.0	4615	23	3.9	20	3.4	217	84	7.8	7.1	11.8	288.4	88.5		34	222	7.03	6.32	5.4	1	2
16	Jared Goff	LAR	25	QB	16	16	9-7-0	394	626	62.9	4638	22	3.5	16	2.6	220	66	7.4	7.0	11.8	289.9	86.5		22	170	6.90	6.46	3.4	1	2
17	Baker Mayfield	CLE	24	QB	16	16	6-10-0	317	534	59.4	3827	22	4.1	21	3.9	179	89	7.2	6.2	12.1	239.2	78.8		40	285	6.17	5.29	7.0	1	1
18	Ryan Tannehill*	TEN	31	QB	12	10	7-3-0	201	286	70.3	2742	22	7.7	6	2.1	126	91	9.6	10.2	13.6	228.5	117.5		31	212	7.98	8.52	9.8	2	3
19	Derek Carr	OAK	28	QB	16	16	7-9-0	361	513	70.4	4054	21	4.1	8	1.6	191	75	7.9	8.0	11.2	253.4	100.8		29	184	7.14	7.25	5.4	2	3
20	Gardner Minshew	JAX	23	QB	14	12	6-6-0	285	470	60.6	3271	21	4.5	6	1.3	150	70	7.0	7.3	11.5	233.6	91.2		33	184	6.14	6.44	6.6	3	3
21	Kyler Murray	ARI	22	QB	16	16	5-10-1	349	542	64.4	3722	20	3.7	12	2.2	173	88	6.9	6.6	10.7	232.6	87.4		48	309	5.78	5.55	8.1	1	2
22	Ryan Fitzpatrick	MIA	37	QB	15	13	5-8-0	311	502	62.0	3529	20	4.0	13	2.6	182	51	7.0	6.7	11.3	235.3	85.5		40	209	6.13	5.78	7.4	3	4
23	Josh Allen	BUF	23	QB	16	16	10-6-0	271	461	58.8	3089	20	4.3	9	2.0	146	53	6.7	6.7	11.4	193.1	85.3		38	237	5.72	5.71	7.6	4	5
24	Sam Darnold	NYJ	22	QB	13	13	7-6-0	273	441	61.9	3024	19	4.3	13	2.9	147	92	6.9	6.4	11.1	232.6	84.3		33	212	5.93	5.50	7.0	2	3
25	Matthew Stafford	DET	31	QB	8	8	3-4-1	187	291	64.3	2499	19	6.5	5	1.7	117	66	8.6	9.1	13.4	312.4	106.0		18	137	7.64	8.15	5.8	2	1
26	Jacoby Brissett	IND	27	QB	15	15	7-8-0	272	447	60.9	2942	18	4.0	6	1.3	143	50	6.6	6.8	10.8	196.1	88.0		27	159	5.87	6.06	5.7	2	2
27	Mitchell Trubisky	CHI	25	QB	15	15	8-7-0	326	516	63.2	3138	17	3.3	10	1.9	156	53	6.1	5.9	9.6	209.2	83.0		38	234	5.24	5.04	6.9	3	3
28	Kyle Allen	CAR	23	QB	13	12	5-7-0	303	489	62.0	3322	17	3.5	16	3.3	188	52	6.8	6.0	11.0	255.5	80.0		46	397	5.47	4.76	8.6	0	1
29	Andy Dalton	CIN	32	QB	13	13	2-11-0	314	528	59.5	3494	16	3.0	14	2.7	170	66	6.6	6.0	11.1	268.8	78.3		37	249	5.74	5.19	6.5
30	Mason Rudolph	PIT	24	QB	10	8	5-3-0	176	283	62.2	1765	13	4.6	9	3.2	80	76	6.2	5.7	10.0	176.5	82.0		15	124	5.51	5.02	5.0	1	1
31	Case Keenum	WAS	31	QB	10	8	1-7-0	160	247	64.8	1707	11	4.5	5	2.0	83	69	6.9	6.9	10.7	170.7	91.3		15	145	5.96	5.94	5.7
32	Teddy Bridgewater	NOR	27	qb	9	5	5-0-0	133	196	67.9	1384	9	4.6	2	1.0	67	45	7.1	7.5	10.4	153.8	99.1		12	89	6.23	6.66	5.8	1	2

Now look at how man games the QBs below him played.  Darnold and Stafford each threw exactly one fewer TD than Allen, but they played 13 games and 8 games respectively.  I mean he threw 10 more TDs than Bridgewater, but Teddy only started 5 games.  If you limit the list to those who started at least 13 games, he’s bottom 5 in most major passing categories.

[reddogblitz]

2 hours ago, whorlnut said:

I think you are missing the fact that he moved the team down into FG range to tie the game and send it to overtime. And the fact that if Knox or Morse hits a block on the QB keeper in OT that we probably would have won the gMe on a FG. 
 

Yes...he had a poor second half. But let’s be honest...the defense let up when Watson started going off and the play calls from Daboll were very conservative. They were definitely playing not to lose, which is not what you want to do in the playoffs on the road. 

 

I understand that. And Teddy brought it up too.

 

My point is we had opportunities after the missed blocks.  And if we'd got a TD instead of a FG on that drive in regulation, we win.  Opportunities were there.  A 30 million dollar man needs to make it happen then.  Our opponents QB was in a similar spot but was able to come up with the big play when needed.  That's what  we should be looking for, not being satisfied that Josh got close and if someone else had done something we would have won.  No more excuses.  Just win somehow.    QBs job is to win.  That's why he makes the most money.

[Hampton Josh fan]

22 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

We have a year to figure it out which is good. I think he needs to improve a lot.  

 

At his current level, I don't think he warrants the $30 mil/year he'll likely ask for.

 

Recent history has shown that paying non elite QBs has major effects on that team's ability to win football games after the new contract kicks in. 

 Josh is a young guy who knows he has to improve. He works hard and is a great leader. Now he has a better offense surrounding him, and 2 years of starts. If he wins the division and a playoff game, why wouldn't he deserve consideration to get paid with top 5 QBs. The guy was thrust into the starting position as a rookie and had less than average o-line and skill players. Last year was better but still subpar receivers. The guy is durable, super athletic, and has great arm talent. As a fan, I believe Josh takes a huge step forward this season. Dabol also must trust Josh to be aggressive in the 2nd half of games with leads.

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Now look at how man games the QBs below him played.  Darnold and Stafford each threw exactly one fewer TD than Allen, but they played 13 games and 8 games respectively.  I mean he threw 10 more TDs than Bridgewater, but Teddy only started 5 games.  If you limit the list to those who started at least 13 games, he’s bottom 5 in most major passing categories.

Now, what if you look at TD passes per pass thrown?

 

Or are you aiming to be the 3rd poster to ignore this question?

[Big Gun]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Now look at how man games the QBs below him played.  Darnold and Stafford each threw exactly one fewer TD than Allen, but they played 13 games and 8 games respectively.  I mean he threw 10 more TDs than Bridgewater, but Teddy only started 5 games.  If you limit the list to those who started at least 13 games, he’s bottom 5 in most major passing categories.

Now read exactly what he said Billlllllllllllllllllllll............

 

 "Mine was as a starter for a season he is in the bottom 5 of TDs thrown and that has merit as well meaning you have to deliver with your arm as a QB no matter how many attempts you have."

 

Reading comprehension Billllllllllllllllllllllllllllll............ 

 

He said it doesn't matter how many attempts, Allen is bottom 5 in TD passes, when in fact Allen was tied for 21st. 

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am sorry I hate this argument. I really hate it. Being a fan of the Bills or of any other pro sports team does not require blind loyalty towards every guy who puts on the jersey. That might be your style of fandom but it sure as hell isn't mine. I am not wired that way. If someone feels strongly in a negative way about a player, any player, it does not make them sad, or desperate to be right, or any less of a fan.

 

I remain on the fence on Allen but sit on the optimistic side of that fence and think, as the OP says, we will know a lot more after this season. But I have been critical of him at times and he has given us things to be legitimately critical of. I am critical of other players on the roster at times too. Doesn't stop me rooting for them when they take the field on a Sunday. It just means that from Monday to Saturday when I sit and go back through the games I try my damndest to watch Bills games back in the same dispassionate way I watch the other 31 teams. 

Of course not, but if they use bad statistics to incorrectly define said player it DOES make them wrong.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Of course not, but if they use bad statistics to incorrectly define said player it DOES make them wrong.

 

Oh I agree with that. That wasn't the point I was responding to. I was responding to the idea that posters who are negative about Josh are doing it because they are sad or want to be right. 

 

I haven't once defended some of the creative use of statistics in this thread. 

[34-78-83]

12 hours ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Crazy how everyone doesn’t even touch on his other intangibles that separates him from just a few others.  Such as his escapability, toughness, ability to extend plays and pick up first downs.  And what about 3rd or 4th and a yard.   It’s about as guaranteed as you can get.  He’s exciting and brings an element of surprise to the position (both good and bad at times), but it’s fun.  Buffalo is getting a lot more national exposure nowadays because how exciting this team is, it’s awesome.  And Josh Allen is a big part of that whether you like it (or him) or not!  

Shhhhhhhhhhh None of those things count! ?

[BigBillsFan]

42 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Now, what if you look at TD passes per pass thrown?

 

Or are you aiming to be the 3rd poster to ignore this question?

 

No one is ignoring it, it's a different argument. It's ignoring the truth of one statement to make a new criteria for the same argument. He's in the bottom 5 of starters of thrown TDs per game. Fact.

 

Is that because of lack of attempts or lack of completions to get more attempts to throw more touchdowns or because he rushes for those TDs? Again, all legit arguments, but they are different arguments.

 

What you are saying is true. No one disputes it. Why is our statement ignored to acknowledge a new argument? It's apples to apples vs apples to bananas.

 

Still the other things he ranks in the bottom 5 have been ignored: completion rate, fumbles, yard per game passing, etc.. It appears the reason why people are sticking on this argument and ignoring the rest is because it's the easiest to argue around. Why not acknowledge our statement of fact as true but then show why it's not a complete picture? I'm ok with that.

 

The truth remains we were in the bottom 1/3rd of teams on offense. 3 points away from Washington as the worst and 11.5 from Baltimore. Is that the OC, HC, QB? It's a combo IMO.

[Pokebball]

On 3/23/2020 at 12:31 PM, Cripple Creek said:

It most definitely is.  If it were your money would you be ready to pony up 35-40m/season based on what you've seen to this point?

At this point you don't have to pony up 35 million.  Let's get to that point and see what we've got.

[Einstein's Dog]

Of course I want Josh to improve.  Most people here do.  IMO, he is on a great arc.  Now he has increased weapons and some consistency of personnel (O line).  I expect the improvement to continue.   Great kid, easy to root for, the opportunity is right there for a great future for Josh and the Bills.

 

I really want to see him win Daboll's and Mc's confidence.  The Bills O needs to attack more.  It was close to embarrassing the last year near the end of half's, under 2 minutes, when the Bills had the ball and timeouts and would sit on it.  Yes, they had the lead but c'mon, I really want to see them have some faith in Josh.  Continue to attack.  It's a needed step to be considered a legitimate contender.

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

No one is ignoring it, it's a different argument. It's ignoring the truth of one statement to make a new criteria for the same argument. He's in the bottom 5 of starters of thrown TDs per game. Fact.

 

Is that because of lack of attempts or lack of completions to get more attempts to throw more touchdowns or because he rushes for those TDs? Again, all legit arguments, but they are different arguments.

 

What you are saying is true. No one disputes it. Why is our statement ignored to acknowledge a new argument? It's apples to apples vs apples to bananas.

 

Still the other things he ranks in the bottom 5 have been ignored: completion rate, fumbles, yard per game passing, etc.. It appears the reason why people are sticking on this argument and ignoring the rest is because it's the easiest to argue around. Why not acknowledge our statement of fact as true but then show why it's not a complete picture? I'm ok with that.

 

The truth remains we were in the bottom 1/3rd of teams on offense. 3 points away from Washington as the worst and 11.5 from Baltimore. Is that the OC, HC, QB? It's a combo IMO.

It’s pretty simple: in order to make an argument about how efficient a QB is, one argument takes into context opportunity to score by throwing while the other looks purely at mass.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

At this point you don't have to pony up 35 million.  Let's get to that point and see what we've got.

 

At the end of this season you have to decide if we're picking up his 5th year option which will come with a payday of approximately $30-32 million in 2022. 

 

I think that by default makes this year a prove it year for Allen. 

[Cripple Creek]

6 minutes ago, Pokebball said:

At this point you don't have to pony up 35 million.  Let's get to that point and see what we've got.

How long are you willing to wait?  If you don't see marked improvement year 3 vs. 2 what's your play?

 

Bring in a vet to compete?

Give him year 4?

Draft some competition?

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

At the end of this season you have to decide if we're picking up his 5th year option which will come with a payday of approximately $30-32 million in 2022. 

 

I think that by default makes this year a prove it year for Allen. 

Option years are not guaranteed, so you can pull it or cut him at any time prior to the 2022 league year. There’s zero risk.

[jrober38]

5 minutes ago, Cripple Creek said:

How long are you willing to wait?  If you don't see marked improvement year 3 vs. 2 what's your play?

 

Bring in a vet to compete?

Give him year 4?

Draft some competition?

 

I'd draft someone new and cut bait.

 

Don't get bogged down in a huge contract for a QB who isn't truly an elite player. 

[BarleyNY]

20 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Option years are not guaranteed, so you can pull it or cut him at any time prior to the 2022 league year. There’s zero risk.

Technicality here.  Not that it’s a big concern with Allen or would change my mind (either way), but fifth year options are guaranteed for injury only. 

[C.Biscuit97]

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1242510703199768585
 

Other qbs have guys drop passes too. 

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/QBDataMine/status/1242510703199768585
 

Other qbs have guys drop passes too. 

 

Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2).

[GoBills808]

Other QBs have drops too is the new coronavirus is like the flu lmao

[Billl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

Now, what if you look at TD passes per pass thrown?

 

Or are you aiming to be the 3rd poster to ignore this question?

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, reddogblitz said:

 

I understand that. And Teddy brought it up too.

 

My point is we had opportunities after the missed blocks.  And if we'd got a TD instead of a FG on that drive in regulation, we win.  Opportunities were there.  A 30 million dollar man needs to make it happen then.  Our opponents QB was in a similar spot but was able to come up with the big play when needed.  That's what  we should be looking for, not being satisfied that Josh got close and if someone else had done something we would have won.  No more excuses.  Just win somehow.    QBs job is to win.  That's why he makes the most money.

This is true, but it doesn't make the 2020 season a "prove it" year, which is what this discussion is supposed to be about.   

 

Watson made the plays to win the game, and he deserves credit for it.  Watson is, in my opinion, one of the league's next great quarterbacks, and he has a year's experience on Allen, and came out of a better program.   So the fact that Watson could do it in his year three doesn't mean that Allen has to do it in his year three.   The Bills want Allen to be a top QB in the league for the next ten to 12 or 15 years.   Whether he gets there in year three or year five really doesn't matter.   What matters is that he get there.  

 

For me it's simple.   He made good progress his first season, and he made good progress his second season.   He needs to keep making good progress.   That won't necessarily make him a star in 2020, because he still has a long way to go.   

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

[C.Biscuit97]

56 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Not at anywhere near the same rate. Allen’s rate of drops (7.2% per PFR) is 16% higher than the next closest (Dak at 6.2).

Does anyone have a video of all Allen drops?  Because it would be interesting to see which were flat out drops or slightly off target throws that were tough catches.  

[thebandit27]

44 minutes ago, Billl said:

He's 18th in a somewhat obscure stat.  Did anyone claim he was bottom 5 in every possible category?  If they did, they're incorrect.  If not, what's your point?

TDs per pass thrown is no more or less obscure than TDs per game.

 

And yes, someone did make that claim.

 

Erroneously.

 

For about the 487th time.

 

31 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

 

Yeah, not sure why per-attempt is somehow obscure but per-game isn’t.
 

14 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Does anyone have a video of all Allen drops?  Because it would be interesting to see which were flat out drops or slightly off target throws that were tough catches.  

 

Not sure, but I’d like to see it too. Have to imagine that P-F-R is at least being consistent in their application of the stat.

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

TDs per pass thrown is no more or less obscure than TDs per game.

 

And yes, someone did make that claim.

 

Erroneously.

 

For about the 487th time.

 

 

Yeah, not sure why per-attempt is somehow obscure but per-game isn’t.
 

 

Not sure, but I’d like to see it too. Have to imagine that P-F-R is at least being consistent in their application of the stat.

I don’t think drops is an official stat and that’s part of the problem.  I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24.   
 

as a receiver, if a ball hits your hands, you should catch it.  But being realistic, not every drop is the same.  A guy throws a 100 mph fastball at you on a 5 yard crossing route Isn’t the easiest catch.  
 

personally, I want to see more of those touch passes from Allen next year.  

[BigBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TD% is a somewhat obscure stat as compared to TDs per game lmao

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

[thebandit27]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I don’t think drops is an official stat and that’s part of the problem.  I posted a Lamar “drop” video and there were 24 “drops” on it yet PFF or someone said they only had 24.   
 

as a receiver, if a ball hits your hands, you should catch it.  But being realistic, not every drop is the same.  A guy throws a 100 mph fastball at you on a 5 yard crossing route Isn’t the easiest catch.  
 

personally, I want to see more of those touch passes from Allen next year.  

I only know that P-F-R calls a drop a pass that could be caught with a “reasonable (i.e. non-infamous Odell Beckham Jr.-MNF catch) effort”

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

Fun fact: Rob Johnson has a better Bills qb rating than Jim Kelly.  
 

And are people using td/ attempts?  Why don’t you think Allen has more attempts?  The coaches are scared to fully let him rip it yet.  

[thebandit27]

4 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

That's why Rob Johnson went to Canton faster than Manning, Farve and Marino because in 1998 he beat them by a landslide in TD per pass ratio. in some cases from 50% to 200% better.

 

In fact he did it again in 1999 and still beat Farve in 2000 for TD%.

 

The only measurement which stack up time and time again are completion %, TDs, YPA, and turnovers.

So wait, if total TDs is the only thing that matters TD-wise, why fight back against the fact that Allen was 21st and try to campaign that any additional context is required?

 

And why pick those stats? If you’re looking for a correlation to winning, there was a study a few years ago that concluded that Adjusted-Net-Yards-Per-Attempt was the stat most closely correlated with winning.

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Fun fact: Rob Johnson has a better Bills qb rating than Jim Kelly.  
 

And are people using td/ attempts?  Why don’t you think Allen has more attempts?  The coaches are scared to fully let him rip it yet.  

Actually, he was 21st in attempts, and he was 21st in passing TDs, so that would seem to be a solid correlation on the surface.